Sportsbet Blog

A superb day’s racing at Flemington with seven Group races, three of them at the highest level.

The Australian Cup (Race 7) looks to be en even race with no stand-out WFA performer. Sportsbet’s traders are happy to take on favourite Heart of Dreams.

He had it all his way out in front in the St George Stakes and that is not likely to happen again and he is still a query at the 2000 metres.  Shocking is terrific value at $8.50. Loves Flemington and third up has been set for this race.

Bart Cummings has a good record in this race so look for Precedence to be in the finish. On this day last year he won a 2000 metre race by 7 lengths. Like Shocking and Precedence, Linton will also appreciate the big Flemington track and the addition of blinkers first time is a key gear change.

Alcopop looms as the best ‘roughie’ in the race after returning to form winning the Kilmore Cup. Playing God is a risk as he is not up to this class as yet.

Heart Of Dreams $4.40, Moudre $6.50, Precedence $6.50, Linton $7.00, Shocking $7.50, Playing God $12.00, Alcopop $15, Others $15.00 and above.

History will be made in the Newmarket Handicap (Race 6) when Black Caviar becomes the first horse in Australian racing to win its first ten starts.

Despite the 58 kg something would have to go terribly wrong for her not to win. Most trainers have conceded they are running for second, however, Sportsbet are confident that Star Witness will run the quinella and Hay List will fill the placings.

Star Witness got closest to the ‘great mare’ in the spring, while Hay List has done nothing wrong. Best ‘roughie’ is Beaded who was fantastic first up and is proven down the straight running second to Whitefriars in the Salinger Stakes last time in. Our traders are so confident that Sportsbet is offering double the odds on all horses except Black Caviar.

Black Caviar $1.28, Star Witness $19.00, Hay List $23.00, Beaded $31.00, Hinchinbrook $41.00, Response $51.00, Eagle Falls $51.00,  Others $101.00 and above.

Race Four is the Group Two Blamey Stakes and Sportsbet are very confident that this race belongs to Whobegotyou. He flew first up, is a proven Group One horse and at the set weights and penalties is a ‘good thing’.

The race looks to be a simple quinella race with Dao Dao,  Whobegotyou’s only danger. He meets him 3kg better than the Futurity Stakes and ran third as favourite in this race last year. Spacecraft and Doubtful Jack will both get good runs on the pace but there is still a doubt over Doubtful Jack on a firm track. An easy race for punters around the top two picks.

Whobegotyou $1.80, Dao Dao $4.20, Spacecraft $6.50, Doubtful Jack $10, Roadtrain $19.00, Rockpecker $31.00, Fanjura $31.00, Others $41.00 & Above.

The Kewney Stakes (Race 5) is a much better race for punters with top trainer Peter Moody the key to the race. He has four runners in the race with three of them set to go to the front and race on the speed.

Sayahailmary should lead with Do Ra Mi sitting outside of it and Zelsnitz getting a nice run in behind them. Our traders expect both Do Ra Mi and Zelsnitz to be in the placings, however, they think Lee Freedman will spoil the party with Ain’tnofallenstar. The filly was brilliant in Adelaide and will be even better at Flemington.

The kiwi Twilight Savings is the best ‘roughie’ in the race. She has good form at home behind the talented Jimmy Choux and is drawn to get a better run than when she resumed at the ‘Valley’. Brazilian Pulse first up against fitter horses is a ‘lay’ even though she is the best filly in the race.

Brazilian Pulse $5.5o , Ain’tnofallenstar $6.50, Do Ra Mi $7.00, Zelsnitz $8.00, Divorces $8.00, Twilight Savings $9.00, Sayahailmary $9.00, Others $11.00 & Above.

Flemington Snapshot
Best Bet: Undeniably (Down in grade and well placed)
Best Roughie: Alcopop
Lay of the day: Heart Of Dreams
Tap on the Shoulder: Star Witness at $3.80 in favourite out betting is the way to go in the Newmarket.

Melbourne looks set to rival Sydney on stars this weekend, with many famous names at Caulfield to race. The Group 2 1400m Memsie Stakes has most of these stars, including last year’s Melbourne Cup winner Viewed and Cox Plate winner El Segundo.

The Memsie Stakes is traditionally a warm-up race for horses that are really looking further ahead in the Spring Carnival. Last year’s winner was Weekend Hussler, and other winners include Miss Finland, Sunline and Makybe Diva, who went on to win her third Melbourne Cup later on that year.

Typhoon Tracy is one of the babies of the race. The Coolmore Classic winner, who came third in the J.J Liston Stakes a few weeks ago, is no stranger to challenge. But it will be interesting to see how she copes with this race.

I like experienced racer Orange County. Although he has not won since September last year, he has done well in recent races, including the Group 3 Bletchingly Stakes, he is a tough runner and should be near to his best racing, unlike those coming straight off a spell.

El Segundo is out for revenge. He hopes to beat Mic Mac, the four year old who beat him earlier this month in the Aurie’s Star Handicap. He will prefer the weight-for-age system of the Memsie Stakes, and is a big chance to join Sir Boom and Sunline as the only horses to have won two Memsie Stakes.

Fiumicino looks a good horse, but I think he is better suited to longer distance races. He has raced 1400m five times, and only managed one place. Like so many others, Efficent has not raced well since his last win. He has not even managed a place since the 2007 Melbourne Cup, so hopefully he can get a good result here.

El Segundo and Orange County are my first two picks, because they both run well over this distance and have much-needed experience. I also like Whobegotyou and the old warhorse Valedictum and is worth an each-way bet.

For the latest odds for this great race checkout Sportsbet’s Racing Section, where they give you a $50 free bet just for making an account!

My Tips:

El Segundo
Orange County
Whobegotyou
Valedictum

Saturday’s J.J Liston Stakes is sure to be closely watched by many punters, especially those keen on Cox Plate favourite Whobegotyou. The star three year old is the big name heading into the race, but he is not without competition. 7 year old Caufield Cup winner Master O’Reilly has been nominated, and so has the unbeaten Typhoon Tracy both with some great racing behind them.

New Zealand horses dominate the field, with 10 of the 23 entries coming from across the Tasman. Master O’Reilly, Zarita and Orange County head the Kiwi attack, with other group 1 winners Mr. Baritone and Ista Kareem not far behind.

But the Australian horses are not without hope. The brilliant Whobegotyou looks our best chance, but a change of jockey may prove costly. Although having Damien Oliver on board is far from a disadvantage, he has only ridden the star once, and punters would have been feeling a lot more confident if Michael Rodd was still riding.

Another group 1 winner to look out for is Gallica. While recent experiments over a longer distance have failed, the mare has had excellent form over 1600m races, which will hopefully transfer to Saturday’s 1400m race.

The New Zealand mare Zarita has not won a race since April 2008 and although she has been unlucky is probably not worth the risk if she gets a run. Master O’Reilly also looks past his use-by-date, and has not won below 1700m.

One to watch for is Fifth Avenue Lady. The 5 year old mare has placed in her past 6 starts, and won 3 of them, including the group 3 Patinack Farm Stakes. She is an expert over middle distance races such as this.
Shadowed by the recent retirement of his brother, Takeover Target, 4 year old Predatory Pricer will be looking to make a few headlines of his own. While he has only won three races, and none since September 2008, Predatory Pricer has impressed in both the Queen Elizabeth Stakes and the AJC Australian Derby.

I think Whobegotyou will be too strong, but Gallica and Fifth Avenue Lady will be two to watch out for and worth a place bet. Checkout Australia’s leading horse racing bookmaker IASbet for the latest odd for the big race.

My Tips for the 2009 J.J Liston Stakes

15- Whobegotyou
20- Fifth Avenue Lady
4- Orange County
21- Gallica