Sportsbet Blog

The past couple of weeks have seen a fairly dramatic turnaround in the Super 14 competition. Teams that looked to be cruising have stumbled and the middle of the pack teams have lifted their performances to the point where there is now only 5 points separating the top eight teams on the ladder.

Early on two of the hot team to watch were the Waratahs and the Sharks, with the latter being especially dominant and looking for all intents like they would clearly finish ahead of the pack.

Fast forward to the present and how the mighty have fallen. The Waratahs have slipped from second on the ladder to sixth faster than the dogs at Dapto, and with a tough three game stretch in South Africa to close out their campaign are actually eighth in the betting to win the tournament this year.

The Sharks have slipped to second on the table with all the signs indicating that this downwards move may be just the beginning. They have some tough games ahead including the Bulls and the Waratahs and will be looking over their shoulder for the rest of the season as they desperately attempt to cling on to their top four spot.

So Who Are The Teams To Watch

The Chiefs

After losing their first three games of the season, the Chiefs have surged to the top of the table, and while they are experiencing some injury concerns at the moment they should have enough in the tank to get them into the finals.

The Crusaders

Currently sitting in eighth place, the Crusaders should be the strongest finishing team in the competition. Three of their last four games are against teams ranked currently outside the top ten so they should be on a roll by the time the finals roll around – they may even score themselves a home final if they rack up enough bonus points against these weak teams.

The Hurricanes

If any team finishes as strong as the Crusaders it will be the Hurricanes. Much like their rivals from across the Cook Straight they have been gifted with a run of soft games at the end of the season which will almost guarantee they finish in the top four.

The Bulls

The Pretoria based outfit is currently lying third on the ladder and should be able to maintain that position in the run home. Their last game of the season is at home against the Sharks and it is possible that results over the next couple of weeks will lead to that game being a playoff for a finals position.

Current Betting

Sharks – $4

Chiefs – $5

Bulls – $5.50

Hurricanes – $6.50

Crusaders – $8

Blues – $8

Brumbies       $17

Waratahs       $21

If you’d like to place a bet on any of these teams taking out the Super 14 title click here now to head over to Centrebet where you can get free bets of up to $100 when you sign up.

Crooksy

With round eight currently underway in the Super 14 competition it is probably a good time to look at where the teams are at and how their chances are heading into the final stretch before the finals.

Top NZ Teams Struggling So Far

The first obvious shock is the top 4 – not a Hurricane or a Crusader to be seen. At the start of the season these were the two favourites, and while they are still within striking distance, their form has been nowhere near as consistent as would have been expected.

The Crusaders in particular got away to a very slow start and have won just three of their first seven games. Ominously for other teams they have won their last three matches, with two of those being against teams currently in the top four – as good a sign as any that if you wanted to get some money on them you should do it now before their price plummets.

The Hurricanes are just outside the top four and have a match in hand on a couple of teams above them. They have lost two games this season, with both of those being at home – not sure what to make of that, but it is interesting none the less.

Waratahs Continue To Win Matches

Once again surprising many people ( as was the case last year) has been the Waratahs ability to win consistently. They have managed to do this amidst much off-field discussion on a number of things

• The less than exciting style of play (with much of the slanging coming from north of the border).
• The choice between Kurtley Beale & Daniel Halangahu at fly-half.
• The future of Phil Waugh

The third one is a potentially huge issue for the Waratahs over the next couple of months. If an arrangement can’t be reached and he heads overseas, it may be that a number of Waratahs will foolow suit leaving them well short on experience next year.

But for now, in spite of all the above the Waratahs have been excellent in their consistency. There next three games are at home before closing the regular season with a tough three match tour in South Africa, making those home games all the more crucial. There is possibly no other team with such a tough finish to their season.

Sharks Definitely The Team To Beat

By far the most outstanding team so far has been The Sharks. This was expected from them at the start of the season but it is another thing to actually deliver on potential. There only loss so far this year was away to the 11th placed Queensland Reds, on a tough four match stretch Down Under. the fact that they bounced back the very next week to beat the Force in Perth displays a strength on the team that will serve them well in the coming weeks.

The Sharks are rightly considered competition favourites, and their match at home against the Waratahs in round 13 could be a preview of one of the semi-finals just a couple of weeks later.

The Bulls are perhaps the team who deserve more credit than they have received. However their last two games have been there first two for the season and do not bode well for them. They need to turn this around very quickly or they risk losing their spot in the top 4 to either the Crusaders or the Hurricanes.

The way things are progressing you would have to say that while the Chiefs and Bulls are in the top 4 right now, they may not be for much longer. The ‘Tahs and the Sharks are looking solid and the Crusaders and Hurricanes have good momentum on the build. Outside of those 6 teams there is no else who has looked anything like a chance of winning.

To get odds and make bets on specific matches click here to get yourself a $100 betting bank from Centrebet.

Crooksy

The bookies have deinitely looked to the Land of the Long White Cloud this year, with four of the five teams rated as a likely top six finisher.

Crusaders

Yet another Super 14 season begins with the crusaders installed as favourites to win the tournament. And with their track record you’d be a brave man to rule them out. But this year will be a testing one for the boys from Canterbury with Robbie Deans and Dan Carter gone. While the forward pack has retained it’s hard edge, the back line just does not seem as potent, and other teams in the comp will defintiely be trying to expoit this during the 2009 season.

As usual Ritchie McCaw will be their talismanic leader, and his inspiration will be required if they are to maintain their strangle hold over the Super 14 tournament.

Hurricanes

Without a doubt the biggest under achievers of the Super Rugby tournament since its inception. I kind of liken them to the Pakistan cricket team from a few years back. Loads of potential and if the ‘A’ team showed up they could take the game away from anyone.

Well this year could be the year they finally live up to their potential. They have been installed by bookies as second favourites, but in reality that is more because any bookie who’s been in the game a while is too scared to offer odds of any sort on the Crusaders.

I think the Hurricanes are the team to beat this year. Boasting no fewer than 11 All Blacks they have a great mix of experience and talent. They came close last year with a semi-final loss to the eventual winners and a grand final appearance is probably the least they are aiming for this season.

Blues

Back line defenders will probably fear this team the most in the 2009 tournament. Their back three of Rockocko, Tuitavake and Toeava have the ability to wreak havoc (and cause embarassment) amongst any opposition.

They have a new coach in Pat Lam, and there is a sense that this team is nearing it’s peak. They would have been disappointed with their 6th place finish from last year, and will make strong claims for a finals berth.

In Kevin Mealamu they have an energetic leader of this dynamicteam who pride themselves on their exciting style of play. If they are able to add enough substance to their style, they could be a big threat in this year’s tournament.

Chiefs

A stange year in 2008 saw the Chiefs beat the eventual winners…and lose to the eventual wooden spooners. If that’s not the definition of inconsistency then I don’t know what is. They finished 7th in the end and will be looking for more consistent performances this season.

There is strength in the backs with speed to burn, but it is in the forwards that players must step forward and improve if the Chiefs are to gain ground on their rivals. With no marquee names to build around, they must look to perform as a unit and at the very least hold their own against the premiere packs of the compettion. This will give their potent scoring weapons such as Mils Muliaina and Sitiveni Sivivatu, a chance to demonstrate what they can do to the opposition

Highlanders

The least likely of the Kiwi teams to finish on the top four, their problem at the moment is more one of experience as opposed to talent. While they should look to finish higher than their 11th position reuslt from last year, 2009 may be a year of growth for this team as players mature and find their feet at this level.

Many of their losses from last year were close affairs, and as the team matures they will gain more wins from these tight encounters. The experience of scrum half Jimmy Cowan will be vital to their progress this year.

With the RBS Six Nations beginning last weekend, and the Super 14 kicking off on Friday the rugby season is truly upon us. I thought this week I’d take a quick look at the Super 14 and go through country by country and maybe offer up some insight into how each team is looking for the season ahead.

I’ll start off with the South Africa teams.

Sharks

The Sharks have recently employed the services of league great Andrew Johns as a coaching consultant, and Johns has come away very impressed with the set-up and approach of the Durban based outfit. He is of the opinion that the Sharks can give the tournament a real shake this year, and the bookies would seem to agree installing them as third favourites to lift the trophy at the end of May.

Last year’s success was based around their amazing start to the season with their first loss coming in round 10. Things will be tougher this year with 5 of their first 6 games away from home. If they come through this stretch in the top four look for them to take a home final and anything can happen from there.

Bulls

On paper the Bulls should always win more than half of their games. They have a strong Springbok presence, and should improve on last years embarassing season where they finished tenth and took some extreme punishment in a couple of home games against the Crusaders and the Hurricanes.

Look for Pierre Spies to lead the team this year to much better performances – he is the sort of player who inspires others to raise their own game, and a top four berth is possible if he has a strong season. Habana is a player who will need to lift his form a little to produce the magnificent finishing we all know he is capable of.

Stormers

The Stormers had a good season last year finishing equal fourth place with the Hurricanes and missing out on a finals berth due to an inferior points difference. They will need to lift again this season if they are to emulate their efforts from ’08. Andries Bekker is probably their stand out player and ranks amongst the top open side flankers in world rugby.

Half Ricky Januarie had a great season last year and his performances this year will be a major determinant in how far the Stormers can go. Percy Montgomery is still running around, and his experience at the back will be of great value to the explosive backline the Stormers field.

Bookies have them middle of the pack, and this is probably about right.

Lions & Cheetahs

Fought it out for the wooden spoon last year, and there is really nothing to indicate that this year will be any different. If you know something I (and every other rugby fan) doesn’t know about either of these teams, then by all means take the massive odds on offer e.g Lions $29 to finish in the top 4.

In the next post I’ll take a look at the always strong New Zealand teams, with some of them losing key players that may have an effect on their success this year.

Craig Crooks