Sportsbet Blog

While all the Group 1 races may be at Caulfield this week, Rosehill still has three top class Group 2s. The 1500m Shannon Stakes is a premier race for three year olds and upwards, with a $150,000 prize pool, and features some very good racers.

Rangirangdoo ($3.70 with Betfair) has been nominated for the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup. He has been in great form of late, although this will be his first real test. He won the Group 3 Tramway Handicap, which elevated him into view for the major races in Melbourne this spring. This race may prove whether he is worth a place as a contender or not.

Strat’s Flyer ($4.80) finished second to Rangirangdoo in the Tramway Handicap, and also looks a good racer. However, he has not had a great deal of experience at Group level, and this race will probably decide whether he continues to aim towards the Epsom Handicap or continue at a smaller level.

Drumbeats ($7.00) may be inexperienced, but he has already proved himself to be a handy horse. He has only won once but has placed in all of his other 4 starts, including a second place in the Group 2 Roman Consul Stakes.

One of the younger horses in the race, four year old O’Lonhro ($2.70), has the best recent Group record and deserves to start favourite. He won the Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes two weeks ago and will either go on to the Epsom Handicap in Sydney or the Caulfield Cup/Cox Plate in Melbourne.

It’s a very small field for a Group race, so anyone is a chance, even $201.00 shot Yallingup. He is in some horrible form, but he showed a flash of brilliance when he won the Group 3 Frank Packer Plate at Randwick in April this year.

O’Lonhro is the standout horse in this race and should win comfortably. There are some other good horses like Drumbeats, Strat’s Flyer and Rangirangdoo that will challenge, but they aren’t quite up with him in class. For a bit of value, I’m going with Ivory Pegasus ($10.00), who hasn’t had much luck with Group races but is in some good form.

My Tips:

O’Lonhro

Rangirangdoo

Drumbeats

Ivory Pegasus

The Melbourne Spring Carnival really starts this weekend, with two Group 1 races. The Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, which has also been known as the Invitation Stakes has been run since 1951 and past winners include Manikato, Encosta De Lago and Exceed and Excel. Traditionally, horses that do well in this race run well in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap in three weeks.

Orange County is going for back-to-back Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, and he is a fair chance. His effort in the his last run, the Memsie Stakes, was dismal, but he has been around long enough to know how to pick himself up and come out with a great race. He is at $13.00 with Betfair, but be assured that those odds would have been a lot smaller if he had performed well in the Memsie Stakes like he should have.

Favourite for the race is Raffaello at $5.50. He has run in Group races five times, but his best result is only a third in the Group 3 Easter Cup at Caulfield this year. He impressed with a win in an open race in August, but he may be a bit too short to warrant a bet at this stage.

Five year old gelding Chasm ($8.50) finished third in the Group 3 Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes in a tough race, and is one of the favourite horses here at $8.50. He had some excellent form throughout last year, and will be looking to repeat that in his first Group 1 race.

Gold Salute ($7.50) beat Chasm to line in the Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes, but still couldn’t manage to win. He is in the best form of his career at the moment and is another horse nominated for the Epsom Handicap. He is a good chance here, and with no short-priced favourite, is a good piece of value.

Estee was unlucky in the Let’s Elope Stakes at Flemington last week, but is one of the shorter-priced horses at $10.00 is this race. The mare has done nothing in her attempts at Group racing so far, but trainer Lee Freedman will be hoping that is on the change.

I am going to back Gold Salute to the line in this race, but it will be close. Raffaello and Chasm are two other top-class horses, and you can never discount the veteran Orange County.

My Tips:

Gold Salute

Raffaello

Chasm

Orange County

While it may be a Group 3 race, the McEwen Stakes is more prestigious and celebrated than many Group 2 races. It is a sprint, run over 1000m, and the total prize money totals $200,000. Former winners of the race include Testa Rossa, Miss Andretti and Kaphero.

The Tony Vasil trained Lucky Secret ($4.00 with Betfair) is one of the premier sprinters in Australia. According to tradition, success on this track and over this distance leads to a very good run in McEwen Stakes, and Lucky Secret’s claim is irrefutable. He has won five races over 1000m and, from his 8 starts at Moonee Valley, has won 7 of them and placed in the other.

The other horse challenging for favouritism is Secret Flyer. He is equal favourite at the moment at $4.00 but there is a fair chance that his odds may drift. However, his form has been almost as good as Lucky Secret’s. He has raced four times over 1000m for three wins, and from his 5 starts at Moonee Valley has won three and placed in the other two.

Here de Angels ($11.00) won this race in 2007, but hasn’t had much luck since then. The gelding raced in the McEwen Stakes again last year, but finished a disappointing 9^th, despite being at short odds. He has raced at Moonee Valley several times, but has done very little. Despite that, he has won three times over this distance and has won this race before, so he is still a chance.

David Hayes’ Nicconi is at $4.75, fairly short odds considering he has only raced at Moonee Valley once before. He has not raced since April, but he was in some great form there, being competitive in several Group 1 races, and even winning the Group 1 Galaxy at Randwick.

Mrs. Waters is right out at $34.00, though she is not without hope. The 8 year old veteran has won 11 times over 1000. She finished second in an open race over 1000m a few weeks ago, and was only just behind Secret Flyer. However, she has only raced at a level far below this, and this might be a little too late in her career to mount an attack on group racing.

I am going for Lucky Secret because his form over the distance and track has been outstanding. I think Secret Flyer will run well, as will Typhoon Zed ($10). For some value I like I am Invincible ($15), though don’t be afraid to put a place bet on Mrs. Waters.

My Tips:

Lucky Secret

Secret Flyer

Typhoon Zed

I am Invincible

This Saturday’s Group 2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes may be a bit of a mouthful, but it will be mentioned many times, as it is one of the biggest lead up races for later in the spring. Traditionally, the 1600m Stakes has been a great guide for the WS Cox Plate, with 8 of the past 9 winners of the Plate coming in the top three in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes.

The horses in this year’s race will certainly be hoping to continue the trend, with all but two of the racers nominated for the Cox Plate. One of these horses is Jolie’s Shinju ($7.50 with Betfair). The Japanese raider has been nominated for the three big races this spring, but this might just be a warm up race for her. She has won several prestigious races in Singapore, including the Group 1 Emirates Singapore Derby.

The current favourite for the Cox Plate, Whobegotyou ($2.90), will probably start favourite here, and deservedly so. He has finished second in his past two starts, and this should be the perfect race to start a winning streak that could continue until the Cox Plate.

El Segundo ($4.00) won this race in 2007, and then went on to win the Cox Plate. He’ll be back for more on Saturday, and if he wins this race, expect him to become the clear favourite to win a second Cox Plate. He will need to overcome some recent bad form, however; he has not won since the 2007 Cox Plate.

Mic Mac ($3.60) possibly has the best form leading into this race. The 4 year old gelding has only lost one of his 8 races so far. He has won his past two since coming off a spell, including the Group 2 Memsie Stakes, which he won over several horses in this race, including Whobegotyou, El Segundo and Efficient.

I think Mic Mac’s form is too hard to ignore, but he will be strongly challenged by Whobegotyou. I think a quinella on those two will prove a good bet, and throw El Segundo in to make a fairly strong Trifecta. I’d love to see those three battling out in the Cox Plate. My fourth bet is Jolie’s Shinju, though I think her owners will not be too concerned with this race.

My Tips:

Mic Mac

Whobegotyou

El Segundo

Jolie’s Shinju