Sportsbet Blog

There are now only two rounds to be played in the 2009 home and away season for the NRL and the fight is on for the remaining top 8 positions. For a number of teams, the next 2 weeks are either do or die with the close of competition drawing nearer.

No-one will really want to lose in this weekend round 25 games and all the teams will be looking for good form to finish the season with. Those teams who simply can’t find it will not last long in the NRL finals.

All the following odds are from BetFair. Betfair is the best when it comes to NRL betting and they allow bets to be placed in a few different ways including what the winning margin will be and first scoring play. For more information about what BetFair has to offer, check out our review here.

My Round 24 tips are as follows.

Friday August 28^th @ 7.35pm

North Queensland Cowboys vs. Brisbane Broncos

One of many games this round that will help shape the NRL finals. The Broncos are currently in 7^th place with 28 points while the Cowboys are 11^th with 24 points. A hard one to call, but I believe that the Brisbane Broncos will take home the win and secure their finals position.

My Prediction is – Brisbane Broncos with odds of $1.45 @ BetFair

Friday August 28^th @ 7.35pm

Parramatta Eels vs. Penrith Panthers

With the Panthers sitting in 8^th position and the Eels in 9^th, this is bound to be a great game. Both teams are currently tied on points and both want to play in the NRL finals. I believe that the Eels will get up in the end and possibly run away with it.

My Tip – Parramatta Eels ($1.42 @ BetFair)

Saturday August 29^th @ 5.30pm

Gold Coast Titans vs. West Tigers

Although I believe the Titans will be too good in this match-up, I do believe that the West Tigers will give them a run for their money. The West Tigers need a win here if they are to have any chance of playing in the finals.

My Tip – Gold Coast Titans ($1.40 @ BetFair)

Saturday August 29^th @ 7.30pm

Melbourne Storm vs. Sydney Roosters

Melbourne Storm is yet another team that could definitely use a win. Currently sitting in fourth place on the ladder, the Storm would like to keep it that way. Meanwhile the Roosters are sitting in last place and will simply be awaiting the season end.

My Tip – Melbourne Storm ($1.13 @ BetFair)

Saturday August 29^th @ 2pm

South Sydney vs. St. George Illawarra

After losing their last 2 games, the Dragons really need to do something here. Since they are up against the struggling Rabbitohs, St. George Illawarra should have no trouble in maintaining their number one position on the NRL ladder.

My Tip – St. George Illawarra ($1.19 @ BetFair)

Sunday August 30^th @ 2pm

Manly Sea Eagles vs. Cronulla Sharks

The great Sea Eagles will be flying high in this match. Faced with the possibility of losing their top 8 position, they will be looking for nothing but a win. Against the likes of Cronulla, I am 100% sure that they will have no trouble taking the win.

My Tip – Manly Sea Eagles ($1.11 @ BetFair)

Sunday August 30^th @ 3pm

Bulldogs vs. New Zealand Warriors

In my opinion the Bulldogs have this one in the bag. New Zealand has very little left to play for while the Bulldogs have a great opportunity to seize top position on the ladder. I cannot see the Warriors winning this match, even if the Bulldogs stay home.

My Tip – Bulldogs ($1.22 @ BetFair)

Monday August 31^st @ 7pm

Canberra Raiders vs. Newcastle Knights

Set to be an excellent game on Monday night. This game will be a fight to the finish as both teams will be pushing hard for victory. The Newcastle Knights will be looking for the win to maintain their top 8 position; meanwhile the Raiders will be looking to take it away from them.

I’m Tipping – Canberra Raiders ($2 @ BetFair)

Round 7 of the NRL kicks off tonight with a couple of fairly unexciting games -  Brisbane take on the Eels and and The Sharks are looking for a win against the Rabbitohs. The game of the round should be the annual ANZAC Day clash between the Sydney Roosters and the St George-Illawarra Dragons.

Brisbane vs Parramatta at Suncorp Stadium

Parramatta could not have looked any worse last week against the Bulldogs, especially in the second half where they were expected by many to take advantage of the relatively short rest period the Dogs had after their previous Monday night game.

The exact opposite was the case with the Dogs storming home for a huge win over the Eels, further shortening their odds to take out the wooden spoon this year.

The Bronco’s on the other hand continue to impress and should win by double digits at home.

Broncos – $1.27

Eels – $3.85

Broncos by 14

Cronulla vs South Sydney at ANZ Stadium

At the start of the season there were high hopes for Cronulla fans with the signing of Trent Barrett and their strong showing in 2008. So far however, there has been little to cheer for supporters in the Shire with The Sharks sitting at the very bottom of the ladder.

Their opponents tonight, The Rabbitohs have surprised many with some strong showings early on and go into this game as the hot favourites to come away with the two points which would cement their place inside the top 8.

Rabbitohs – $1.60

Sharks – $2.35

Rabbitohs by 6

Sydney Roosters vs St George Illawarra Dragons at the SFS

The Dragons have been one of the strongest teams of the comp so far this season and are really coming together well under new coach Wayne Bennett. The thing to like about the Dragons is their lack of ego – there are no big name superstars just a well drilled group of skilled players coming together as team.

This couldn’t be further from the truth with their opponents the Roosters, many of whose players seem to suffer under the burden of expectations. Their squad consists of many more rep players than the Dragons, but going on their form so far this year they are very hard to back.

One positive for the Roosters is that their last two losses have been very close and to strong opposition so they may closer to hitting some winning form than many people think. The only thing wrong with that idea is that they were 16-0 up last week against the warriors and were run down in the second half.

I think the match will be closer than the odds would suggest.

Dragons – $1.55

Roosters – $2.47

Dragons by 4

Melbourne Storm vs Warriors at Olympic Park Stadium

The Warriors were lucky to get the win last week against the Roosters and face a much tougher task this week on the road against the Storm.

Storm – $1.48

Warriors $2.35

Storm by 8

North Qld Cowboys vs Manly Sea Eagles at Dairy Farmers Stadium

Both of these teams have had extremely disappointing starts to their season, falling far behind what the expectations were. The return of Brett Stewart seemed to fire Manly inot action so it will be interesting to see how they perform with him now out of action due to injury.

Cowboys – $1.65

Sea Eagles – 42.25

Cowboys by 6

Raiders vs Bulldogs at Canberra Stadium

The Bulldogs have had just the one loss so far this season and while the Raiders are a fast improving side and are playing at home, I think the Dogs have enough to get them across the line.

Raiders – $1.74

Bulldogs – $2.11

Bulldogs by 4

Wests Tigers vs Newcastle Knights at Campbelltown Stadium

While the Knights are the team sitting higher on the ladder, the Tigers are undefeated at home this season and will start this game as slight favourites in what should be a great match up in the west of Sydney

Tigers – $1.85

Knights – $1.95

Knights by 4

Penrith Panthers vs Gold Coast Titans at CUA Stadium

The Titans are the surprise competition leaders after round 6 and are playing a team who have managed to scrape together just the two wins so far this season. There form has suggested they are playing better than that and this should be a close match.

Panthers – $1.74

Titans – $2.11

Titans by 2

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Crooksy

The North Queensland Cowboys will be looking to bounce back hard after their abysmal season in 2008 where they narrowly avoided the wooden spoon as a result of their superior defence compared to the Bulldogs. The return of players and personnel from injury and rival clubs has created a feeling of excitement up in Townsville that last year was just a minor glitch, and 2009 will see the Cowboys back in the top half of the ladder where they belong.

Returning Personnel

Matt Bowen has fought back from the knee injury that saw him play just six games last season. The club is being cautious with him at the moment, as they realise the value in having him for the whole season, and in particular the stretch leading into the finals. His return to the team will add extra spark to the backline.

Dally M coach oif the year 2008 Neil Henry is back from his successful 2 year stint at the Raiders. Henry previously worked under Graham Henry at North Queensland early this decade and is a popular figure up north. He is well regarded as being an excellent tactician and has been able to hone his skills at both club and Origin level having worked with Mal Meninga over the past few years to help establish the current dominance of the Cane Toads.

Billy Johnstone is back at the Cowboys to dish out his special brand of pain, which should see the squad re-emerge as one of the fittest in the competition

Off-Season Buys…Good & Bad?

Over the off-season the Cowboys have made some good signings in Willie Tonga and Antonio Kaufausi. While Tonga has been plagued by injuries in his past few seasons at the Bulldogs, all reports indicate his fitness is great and he should be back to his destructive best this year.

North Queensland have also signed Shannon Hegarty who will be attempting to prove wrong the pundits who slapped him with the Rugby League Week award for worst buy 2009.

Greatest Halfback In The World?

Many people believe this title belongs to Jonathan Thurston, and his form over the past few seasons probably justifies the tag. He is an integral part of this squad who have a atrocious record when he doesn’ play. They win 53% of their games when he plays, and just over 30% when he is sidelined.

This is a concern for the Cowboys, who have bought in Grant Rovelli to play alongside  Thurston in the halves and to perhaps slot into Thurston’s position if he is out for any reason.

Overall the Cowboys will be a much better team than last year. Their forwards are consistently good and should create plenty of chances for the likes of Thurston, Bowen and Tonga to carve holes through opposition backlines.

Bookies have them finishing just inside the eight, and it is one of those situations where it could go either way. They have the potential for a top four finish but they could also be hit by injuries and plummet to the bottom of the ladder.

Current Odds To Win The Premiership – $12

Crooksy

One thing I have noticed in the markets over the past couple of weeks is that the Warriors have quietly slipped into third spot in the premiership betting in some markets, while remaining outside the top 4 in others.

Stacey Jones Is Back

From all reports there has been a real spring in the step at training in Auckland with the return of premiere playmaker Stacey Jones. While many thought his NRL days were done and dusted, Jones has decided to give it one more crack, and that can only be of benefit to a team that managed to come home strong last season to nab fourth place on the ladder, all  the while struggling to dominate in the halves.

Jones’s experience and ability should be felt immediately this year, and could be the impetus they need to avoid the sluggish starts which have plagues them in recent years.

As well as adding some quality attacking options over the off-season with Denan Kemp and Joel Moon heading across the ditch from the Broncos, Wade Mackinnon will start season 2009 injury free and his presence at fullback will be of great value to the team.

The backline is shaping up quite nicely, with a good balance of experience, youth, flair and consistency.

Has Ruben Wiki Really Retired?

It feels like Ruben Wiki has been around since Jack Gibson was coaching…and that’s because he almost has, making his debut for the Raiders just three years after The Supercoach’s last game in charge of NSW. Along with Steve Menzies he has been one of the most incredibly consistent performers over an extended career, and his loss will be felt by the Warriors this season.

Along with Wiki, The warriors have lost two other key forwards in Wairangi Koopu and Logan Swann, and with veteran Steve Price playing what could be his last season their is a real need for some youngsters to step forward and announce themselves as the players to do the job this year and into the future.

One player who has the talent to do just that is 21 year old Sam Rapira. After suffering a little bit from second season sydrome in 2008, he will be looking to really make his mark in the competition this year.

Consistency Is The Key

One area where the team can really make some improvements is in their ability to play at a consistently high level week in, week out. On any given day, teams from across the country know that The Warriors can match it with the best of them and come out on top. They also know the team can implode and play like they are struggling hard to avoid a smack by the wooden spoon.

Stacey Jones will be a big help in this regard, but he is only one man. Consistent team performances, both at home and away should be one of the main points of focus for coach Ivan Cleary this year.

Personally I think they are a little bit short to be betting on them at the moment. It is almost a certainty that you will get better odds on the Warriors at some stage in the first half of the season

Current Odds To Win The Premiership – $11

Crooksy

Having participated in the season decider for the past three years, The Storm have only one premiership to show for their dominance over this period. There are many who think that the team has passed its peak and this season looms as a testing one for the men south of the border.

How Much Will The Departure Of Folau Hurt The Storm?

Much has been made of the departure of Israel Folau, moving closer to home by joining the Brisbane Broncos. And while there is no doubt he is a huge loss, I don’t think it will be the difference between them having a good season and a great one. Two years ago when Melbourne were in their best form, they never had Folau and his loss will be to the gain of the new centre pairing Will Chambers and Willie Isa.

Captain Cameron Smith has singled out Chambers as one to watch this season, after the disappointment of injury curtailed his season in 2008. “We only got a glimpse of Will Chambers last year,” Smith said “but with Israel Folau gone I think you’ll see just what he’s capable of”.

Chambers is Super 14 bound next year after signing a contract with The Reds, so will be looking to make the most of his last season in the NRL (for now).

Strength In The Backs, Forwards Consistent

There are plenty of other attacking options in the backs with potent strike weapons Billy Slater and Greg Inglis, and they will be served well by halfback Cooper Cronk. The Storm has scored over one hundred tries per season for the last six seasons, which immediately highlights where a major strength of the team has been.

Cameron Smith has proved himself to be one of the most dominant hookers of the past decade, and he leads from the front in all that he does. He is surrounded by a pack that is consistently good, without necessarily being full of superstars. Much of this season’s success will depend on this pack maintaining its form and paving the way for the backs.

Player Movements

As always in the NRL, when a team rises to become successful as a result of no name players becoming game breaking superstars, at some stage there has to come a point when those players require more money and the salary cap becomes an issue.

This point has arrived for the Melbourne Storm. Their off-season turnover has seen them lose more players than they gain, and the depth in the squad perhaps isn’t quite what it has been over the past few seasons. Apart from Folau, the Storm has lost stalwart Matt Geyer and four quality forwards including England-bound Michael Crocker. Whle Wairangi Koopu is a great signing for the club, injuries in a few key posiitons in the forwards could really stunt their season.

Then when you take into account the unpredictability of how players will come through the rep season, doubts linger in the mind as to Melbourne’s ability to match their exploits from the recent past.

One of their real strengths in this regard is their coach Craig Bellamy, who has established himself as one of the very best in the game (although NSW origin fans would like his track record to improve this year). He has been with the club since 2003, and has consistently displayed a knack for quickly developing the talent of younger players and helping them achieve their full potential in the sport. Storm fans will be hoping he can do the same this year.

The Storm open their campaign with tough matches against the Dragons, then on the road in queensland against the Broncos and the Cowboys. We will very quickly get an idea as to how the team will shape up for the rest of the season.

Current Odds To Win The Premership – $6

Crooksy

There is a great night of Aussie sporting action ahead with two finals of interest as well as the Australian cricket team assuming  a commanding position heading into the fourth day of the first test in South Africa.

World Club Challenge

First up we have the Manly Sea Eagles playing the annual World Club Challenge against last year’s champions, the Leeds Rhinos. Australian teams have a terrible history in this event – at the moment they are on a run of five consecutive losses. So it is understandable to see the reactions from league people in England when people such as Manly chief executive Grant Mayor apparently speak on behalf of the NRL and call the Super League a “second-tier” competition.

While it may be true that this is the view held by the majority of league supporters on this side of the pond, it is a poor example of gamesmanship for a ranking official to state as much in a week that should be all about the sporting event that brings together the top teams from both competitions.

Bookies have installed Manly as favourites at $1.70, against the $2.10 on offer for the Rhinos. If you’re a betting man who values history this may be good enough for a punt on the Rhinos, with Australian teams traditionally struggling in this match

World Matchplay In Arizona

If you were to be asked who has the winningest record at The Accenture World Match Play Tournament, the lions share of fans whould guess defending champion Tiger Woods would have to be the man. Well he’s close, but there’s one golfer ahead of him – Australia’s Geoff Ogilvy who will be contesting his third final in this event tonight against Englishman Paul Casey.

Both players have already notched up their first win of the season and as such it would seem their good form has continued this week. Ogilvy’s game has improved every day, and his 4 and 2 win over Stewart Cink in the semis included three birdies and an eagle in the last four holes to completely shut the American out.

He has proved himself time and again to be one of the games great matchplay exponents and when asked the reason for this, he explains his success has much to do with his ability to handle the pressure moments, which occur with more regularity during a matchplay tournament

“You could go all year and not have a must-make putt. I’ve had 15 this week,” Ogilvy said. “So we play golf to put ourselves in these situations. It’s so enjoyable to hit good shots and to get those situations. You feel the pressure as much in the first-round match on the 13th hole as you do sometimes on the 13th hole on Sunday.”

Paul Casey is no slouch himself in the format, as evidenced by his victory at the 2006 HSBC World Matchplay event and his strong showing this week. And he’s comfortable playing with Ogilvy – the pair are good friends and members of the same golf club, Whisper Rock in Arizona.

In fact the two of them ventured across to Tucson together last week to check the course out for the first time. They are both finding it a little surreal to have each progressed to the final where they will play each other again – this time with just a little more at stake than a friendly wager.

The bookies have installed Ogilvy as a firm favourite, and you’d have to agree that is where the smart money would be.

Crooksy

How Far Can Bennett Take The Dragons?

The obvious talking point with the St. George Illawarra Dragons this year is how much of an effect Wayne Bennet can have in his first season as coach. The general consensus over the last couple of years has been that nathan Brown just didn’t seem to command the respect that is required to get that extra 5-15% effort from the players at training and on the pitch which means the difference between a top four team and an also-ran.

This is understandable and is in no way a reflection on the character or coaching ability of Brown – his coaching began in 2003 with him taking charge of many of his ex-teamates. It was only natural that there were going to be difficulties in making the transition from player to coach at the same club at such a young age (he was just 29 when he took the reins).

And I’m sure everyone involved will tell you that it wasn’t really a factor. But they’d be kidding themselves, of course it was a factor. There are attitudes that just gradually seep into a team’s mentality over time without anyone realizing it is happening. He wasn’t able to properly assert his authority early on, and his tenure as coach had that as its foundation.

Wayne Bennett understands that, and this can be seen in the approach that he has taken from the outset. At the Bronco’s he had strong player leaders at all times, so his role was more as overseer rather than taskmaster. From all reports he has imposed himself in a very direct way from the start of his term at the Dragons, and is obviously attempting to instill a new culture into his squad of players from which he can build successful campaigns over the next couple of years.

There is also that intangible factor, an aura that comes as a result of Bennett’s success and experience. Always a talented squad, the Dragons may have had nagging doubts in the past about training methods, strategies etc. When you have one of the all time great coaches in charge, all doubts about those sort of things are immediately banished. Players know that they just have to focus their attentions on their skills, fitness and teamwork – Bennett will take care of the rest.

The Dragons have looked good so far in the pre-season, but it is just that…the pre-season. I do however find it interesting that the Dragons finished 7th last year, and are currently around the same in the betting. While it is probably too much of an ask for them to go all the way this year, signs are good that they are on the improve and will more than likely cause some upsets this year.

The Dragons face the Storm, Sharks and Broncos in the first 4 weeks of the competition – a very tough ask, and we will know at the end of that first month how good this team can be this season.

Current odds to win the premiership – $13.00