Sportsbet Blog

What a huge 5 days of footy we had over the Easter/Anzac Day long weekend. We don’t have long to sit back and think about our Round 6 footy tipping though with only 1 day without footy before we get back into things Thursday night with West Coast Vs. Melbourne.

Geelong, Hawthorn & Fremantle have the bye in Round 6 which gives us 7 games of footy for the 3rd week in a row.

My best bet of Round Six is Melbourne between 1-39 against West Coast which is paying $2.85 at Sportsbet where they give you a $200 free bet bundle just for signing up. See more info here.

West Coast V Melbourne Thursday Night at Patersons Stadium

With both teams coming off the bye in Round 5 expect both sides to come out firing and trying to get the early advantage. The eagle’s pressure against Hawthorn down in Tassie was A grade and they will need to produce much of the same against Melbourne to get over the line.

Melbourne had an easy win against Gold Coast last time out getting their season on track. Brent Maloney was superb in the midfield and will look to dominate again.

Tip: Melbourne by 14 points

Odds: West Coast 1.71 Melbourne 2.15

Sydney V Carlton Friday Night at the SCG

Sydney should be fresh having a bye in Round 5 and will look to produce the same result as they did against Carlton in last year’s finals series. Jude Bolton is in career best form and will be looking to carry the Swans midfield.

The Blues were good early and late against Adelaide but went missing in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, something they can’t afford to do against the Swans. Andrew Walker is finally starting to show his potential for Carlton up forward and is one to watch out for.

Whichever team can win the midfield battle should get the points here in what should be a cracker of a game.

Tip: Blues by 7 points

Odds: Sydney 1.81 Carlton 2.00

North Melbourne V Port Adelaide Saturday at Etihad Stadium

I wouldn’t be expecting a huge turnout at Etihad stadium on Saturday but do expect a close match between the Roos and Power.

North are desperate for a win, sitting bottom of the AFL ladder after 5 rounds. Some good news last week was the form of big man Drew Petrie up forward bagging 5 goals.

Port Adelaide let a big lead slip and become the first ever victim of the Gold Coast Suns last Saturday. They will be out to rectify that performance and will go in with a big chance against the Roos. Just Westhoff will want to put in a big performance after he missed the chance to win the game for his side in Round 5.

Tip: Kangaroos by 28 points

Odds: North 1.46 Port Adelaide 2.74

Richmond V Brisbane Saturday night at the MCG

The tigers were very good in the second half against the Kangaroos with young gun Dustin Martin producing a sizzling best on ground performance. Jack Reiwoldt is sitting 2nd in the Coleman medal and will be looking for a big bag to go ahead of Buddy Franklin.

Brisbane will be looking again for their first win of the season on Saturday night. The lions were gallant against St Kilda last week but inexperience cost them in the end. Simon Black, Luke Power & Mitch Clark need huge games to lead the Lions to a win.

My prediction is the tigers should be too strong over 4 quarters.

Tip: Richmond by 38 points

Odds: Richmond 1.40 Brisbane 2.98

Adelaide V St Kilda Saturday night at AAMI Stadium

The Saints finally got a win on the board last week and have a very tough couple of months coming up. They need to gain some momentum if they want to feature in the finals.

Adelaide is up and down this season and were unlucky last week not to snatch a win over the Blues. Taylor Walker looks set for a big season and fellow tall forward Kurt Tippet looks to be finding some form.

I expect a low scoring slog Saturday night at AAMI, the experience of the Saints will get them over the line.

Tip: Saints by 10 points

Odds: Adelaide 1.70 St Kilda 2.16

Essendon V Gold Coast Sunday at Etihad Stadium

This is just the game Essendon want coming off a hard hitting ANZAC day performance against the Pies. Dyson Heppell showed that he is going to be a superstar of the competition on Monday with a standout performance. Stuart Crameri is proving to be a shining light up forward and will cause the Suns defense a lot of headaches.

The Gold Coast were terrific in the last quarter against Port to get their first win in the history of the club. Young guns David Swallow and Brandon Matera showed their high qualities when it counted most.

I don’t expect the Suns to cause the Bombers too much trouble though.

Tip: Bombers by 80 points

Odds: Essendon 1.04 Gold Coast 11.25

Collingwood V Bulldogs Sunday at the MCG

The Bulldogs are very up and down this season and will need to put in a consistent 4 quarter performance to have any chance against the ladder leader.

Travis Cloke stood up when needed against Essendon and with Chris Dawes also up forward it should be a great contest against the Bulldogs big defenders.

The Pies will have too much class all over the field though and should get their 6th win of the season.

Tip: Collingwood by 38 points

Odds: Collingwood 1.20 Bulldogs 4.62

Round 6 is rivalry round with great games all weekend. The match of round six would have to go to Friday nights clash against the Saints and the Bulldogs. A win to either club here will gain the confidence they need for what it takes to win the premiership this year.

Best Bet of Round 6

This weeks bet of the round is St Kilda and North Melbourne both to win in a multi. It pays a generous 4.30 with Sportsbet here.

Western Bulldogs V St Kilda Friday Night at Etihad Stadium

Tip: St Kilda

Odds: Western Bulldogs 1.81 St Kilda 2.20

The Saints looked flat footed last week in a scrappy game of football against Port in what could be a start of a downwards turn.

A loss for St Kilda here will be the telling tale for them as they try and replicate their 2009 regular season where they finished on top of the ladder.

I think they will bounce back now they are under dogs. Expect a much better performance from Justin Koschitzke up forward as he tries to make up for the injury of Nick Riewoldt.

North Melbourne V Melbourne Saturday at Etihad Stadium

Tip: North Melbourne

Odds: North Melbourne 2.20 Melbourne 1.80
One month ago this game would have been looked over but with both clubs coming off good wins is has turned into an interesting game.

With talks of a Melbourne finals campaign this year I think the club may be looking a little too far ahead. Although they will start favourite to win the match, my prediction is that Melbourne’s three game winning streak will come to an end.

Adelaide V Port Adelaide Saturday at AAMI Stadium

Tip: Port Adelaide

Odds: Adelaide 2.48 Port Adelaide 1.66

The Showdown XXVIII match this weekend will be a one sided affair with the Power in pretty good form of late. They have the ability to change the oppositions game plan and flip the game on its head which I think will break the crows early in the match.

Adelaide will be without the important Patrick Dangerfield which will make it all the harder for the Crows.

Sydney V Brisbane Saturday Night at the SCG

Tip: Sydney

Odds: Sydney 1.61 Brisbane 2.56

The top of the table Swans have continued to surprise the footy intellects with many of them tipping them out of the top 8 this season.  Paul Roo’s has taken a back flip on his Sydney game plan for his final year as coach and so far has proven successful.

I think Sydney look the cleaner side with plenty of carry through the midfield and accurate kicking to the forwards. Even without key player Craig Bolton I think sydney will win in a close match.

Daniel Bradshaw V Jonathan Brown will be ones to keep an eye on with both forwards doing well this season for their clubs.

Essendon V Hawthorn Saturday Night at the MCG

Tip: Hawthorn

Odds: Essendon 2.47 Hawthorn 1.56

This is a must win for the Hawks. They are stuck on one win for the season and yet to show the form they are known for. I would be wary about betting too heavily on this game, although the Hawks are clear favourite and should win I think Essendon will match them early and only fade out late in the game.

My prediction is the Hawks by 13 points so take the 1-39 points margin paying 2.25 at Sportsbet and you should be safe.

Geelong V Richmond Sunday at Skilled Stadium

Tip: Geelong

Odds: Geelong 1.04 Richmond 22.00

Richmond’s odds keep getting longer and longer, I was shocked to see them at $13 last week but $22 this week at Betfair? Thats beyond a joke!

The Cats will demolish them this weekend especially after the shock loss last weekend to Carlton. I’m tipping the Cats to win by over 40 points paying a small but safe $1.31.

Carlton V Collingwood Sunday at the MCG

Tip: Collingwood

Odds: Carlton 2.42 Collingwood 1.60

A huge crowd will see a very high pressure game on Sunday with both Clubs coming off big wins. The key to the game will be Collingwood’s forward line. If Travis Cloke can kick straight in a pressure game I think they will win. He has struggled in the past in key games but I think he may have over come this and get the win for the Pies.

Pies defender Simon Prestigiacomo will be out again this week as he still struggles with a groin injury. Carlton’s Andrew Walker is sidelined for up to six weeks after breaking his collarbone in their 36 point win over the Cats.

West Coast V Fremantle Sunday at Subiaco Oval

Tip: Fremantle

Odds: West Coast 3.10 Fremantle 1.47

Freo will easily take care of  West coast in this years AFL Derby.West Coast over use the ball and make too many mistakes in the middle which cause to many turn overs. Freo on the other hand are getting the ball nicely into the forward line making life easy for Pav up with a few cameo appearances from big 211cm Arron Sandilands and Hayden Ballantyne.

Keep an eye out for Michael Barlow for Freo. He averaged 30 possessions a game in the VLF last year and has brought that over to the AFL with 32 of his own last weekend. If you haven’t got him in your dream team, get him in.

There a two standout games this weekend with Hawthorn and Carton going head to head with both clubs needing to answer to their critics. Hawthorn were less than convincing after a win against a bottom 8 side in the Eagles where they should have stretched the winning margin out alot more than 18 points.

The St Kilda V Bulldogs game is the match of the round with both teams destined to do well in 2009. This will be the biggest test for the Saints this season and the result will show if they can match it with the big teams after a perfect start to the year.

AFL Tip of the Week: For all the punters my tip of the round is Hawks, West Coast and Adelaide to win in a multi that at IASbet will pay around $6.30. You can place this bet on at IASbet and get a $100 free bet when depositing $50 or more.

North Melbourne V Collingwood. Friday night at Etihad Stadium

Selection: Collingwood

The Pies have had an average start to what was expected to be a real contender after making it to the pre-season final. After a disappointing loss to their arch rival Carton last week I think they will bounce back against the Roos and have a comfortable victory. Also with Brett Harvey out for up to 12 weeks through injury it will only make the task tougher for the Kangaroos.

Hawthorn V Carlton. Saturday at the MCG

Selection: Hawthorn

This should be a very high paced, high scoring game. Both clubs have fast game styles which makes for great footy. This game will ultimately come down to which team makes the most of the inside 50 entries that both teams are very good at creating. The big forwards in Fevola, Buddy Franklin and Roughhead will be the key to success and I think the Hawks will come out on top. With premiership players Stephen Gilham, Brent Guerra and Michael Osborne returning for the Hawks their form from last year will start to return.

West Coast V Fremantle. Saturday at Subiaco Oval

Selection: West Coast

West Coast are usually an unstoppable force in Subiaco and with the added hype of the local derby the Eagles should fly high over what looks to be another disappointing year for the Dockers. As I have said in previous tips never to tip Freo. The battle of the WA rucks will be worth a look with both Cox and Sandilands going head to head in the middle. Sandilands dominated the leagues top ruck Darren Jolly last weekend with 46 hitouts.

Brisbane V Essendon. Saturday Night at the Gabba

Selection: Brisbane

This one is tough to make a prediction but I think home ground advantage will come into play at the Gabba. Brisbane should make up for the huge loss to a top class Geelong outfit last weekend. Essendon are showing good spirit with three wins this year and a massive 5 point win against a skilled Collingwood side, but they will find it hard to play enough consistent footy to do it on a regular basis. The Lions will be out to put a stop to Brent Stanton after a gallant 34 touches of the football last weekend.

Port Adelaide V Adelaide. Saturday Night at AAMI Stadium

Selection: Adelaide

The other derby played this weekend is at AAMI stadium know as Showdown XXVI. Both South Australian teams are on 3 wins, 2 losses making this a must win for both clubs. The result will spring board the winner to a two game advantage over their rival and a likely top 4 position at the end of the week, where the loser will drop out of the 8. Tipping between them is hard, but I think Adelaide has enough class in the midfield with 7 players last week getting over 25 possessions and should account for Port in a low scoring match.

Sydney V Richmond. Sunday at the SCG

Selection: Sydney

Sydney should have an easy win over an unorganised Tigers team. The Tigers don’t seem to have a great deal of flow to their game which sees them get caught up in the mid field. Jolly should be the game breaker in the middle giving Sydney first use of the ball at stoppages.

Melbourne V Geelong. Sunday at the MCG

Selection: Geelong

The Cats are the team to beat this year and Melbourne don’t have the players or mindset to overcome majority of teams let alone the leagues top. Geelong should win by over 45 points, anything less would be a disappointing day for them. The umpires will have 3 Brownlow Medal points written for Gary Ablett before the game has started after a staggering 88 possessions in his last two games.

Western Bulldogs V St Kilda. Sunday at Edihad Stadium

Selection: St Kilda

This weeks game of the round will be a huge test for both clubs. I think if the Saints play with the confidence they have been playing with they will blow the game apart early in the match. The Dogs may cause a headache for the Saints across the wings with their speed and tackling pressure forcing errors and turnovers, but the they will struggle with inside 50 marking contests where it counts. Sam Fisher, Lenny Hayes and Jason Gram will be the ones to watch dominating the opposition every game this year