Sportsbet Blog

Punters have not been put off by Maluckyday’s flop in the Ranvet with one punter having $50,000 each way on the boom stayer to win Saturday’s BMW at Rosehill with Sportingbet Australia.
The “Team Hawkes” trained gelding has been backed from $2.80 to $2.70 despite running fourth behind Zavite and Descarado in the Ranvet.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters clearly had faith that he would bounce back as he was the only runner to come in for serious support.
“He is the only one in the market that punters are interested in backing with Descarado and Linton easy in betting and last start winner Zavite completely friendless,” Sullivan said.
“He was very heavily backed in the Ranvet before disappointing but punters are clearly forgiving that run.

“There has been plenty of other punters wanting to back him as well away from the big bet of $50,000 each way at $2.80, which would take out over $200,000, so I think he will only shorten from now.”

Sullivan said the only other money there had been was for roughie, Mourayan, who had shortened from $51 to $41.
“Mourayan has had plenty of supporters with one bet of $50,000 to $1000 each way and a number of other smaller bets.”

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2011 THE BMW
Sportingbet Australia Market
Maluckyday 2.70
Descarado 3.60
Linton 6.00
Zavite 13.00
Hawk Island 15.00
Laristan 16.00
Illustrious Blue 18.00
Ginga Dude 26.00
Cedarburg 26.00
Mourayan 41.00
Extra Zero 51.00

While all the Group 1 races may be at Caulfield this week, Rosehill still has three top class Group 2s. The 1500m Shannon Stakes is a premier race for three year olds and upwards, with a $150,000 prize pool, and features some very good racers.

Rangirangdoo ($3.70 with Betfair) has been nominated for the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup. He has been in great form of late, although this will be his first real test. He won the Group 3 Tramway Handicap, which elevated him into view for the major races in Melbourne this spring. This race may prove whether he is worth a place as a contender or not.

Strat’s Flyer ($4.80) finished second to Rangirangdoo in the Tramway Handicap, and also looks a good racer. However, he has not had a great deal of experience at Group level, and this race will probably decide whether he continues to aim towards the Epsom Handicap or continue at a smaller level.

Drumbeats ($7.00) may be inexperienced, but he has already proved himself to be a handy horse. He has only won once but has placed in all of his other 4 starts, including a second place in the Group 2 Roman Consul Stakes.

One of the younger horses in the race, four year old O’Lonhro ($2.70), has the best recent Group record and deserves to start favourite. He won the Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes two weeks ago and will either go on to the Epsom Handicap in Sydney or the Caulfield Cup/Cox Plate in Melbourne.

It’s a very small field for a Group race, so anyone is a chance, even $201.00 shot Yallingup. He is in some horrible form, but he showed a flash of brilliance when he won the Group 3 Frank Packer Plate at Randwick in April this year.

O’Lonhro is the standout horse in this race and should win comfortably. There are some other good horses like Drumbeats, Strat’s Flyer and Rangirangdoo that will challenge, but they aren’t quite up with him in class. For a bit of value, I’m going with Ivory Pegasus ($10.00), who hasn’t had much luck with Group races but is in some good form.

My Tips:

O’Lonhro

Rangirangdoo

Drumbeats

Ivory Pegasus

Saturday’s Group 2 Theo Marks Stakes, run over 1400m, is one of the more even races this weekend. Very few in the field of 11 are not legitimate chances, and there is not one clear favourite. The race is worth a nice $200,000, but most horses will be looking further ahead to the Group 1 Epsom Handicap to be held at Randwick on October 3.

Triple Honour, who finished third in last week’s Chelmsford Stakes, is one of the three horses battling for favouritism with Betfair, and is currently winning the race at $4.40. The five year old is a veteran of Group races, but his record in them is less than wonderful.

Another short priced horse is Racing to Win ($5.00), who has overcome past injuries to be at his peak for this spring. The gelding had a reasonable first-up race in the Warwick Stakes, but is now looking to improve and move on to the Epsom Handicap or the Cox Plate.

There isn’t a great deal of value to be found in this small field, but it’s worth having a look at Mentality, who is at $13.00. He was fantastic when he won the Premiere Stakes last month, but took a step backwards when he finished ninth in the Group 3 Tramway Handicap. However, if he can regain some form, he should prove some very good value.

I was a little shocked to see Mr Baritone ($6.50) in the top three in the Warwick Stakes a few weeks ago; I had though he was well past his prime. However, he looks set to have another (possibly his last) crack at the Sydney Spring Carnival, and is at $6.50 here. He still has a little way to go before convincing me, but he is one to watch for in this race.

This will be the first race for Rock Kingdom, who is nominated for both the Cox Plate and Epsom Handicap, since coming 9^th in the AJC Australian Derby in April. He has had some excellent form this autumn though, and could easily win this race.

I think Rock Kingdom will win this race, but Triple Honour and Racing to Win will not be far behind him. If you’re looking for a little value, Mentality is the way to go. With such an even field, you’re going to need a pretty open box trifecta.

My Tips:

Rock Kingdom

Triple Honour

Racing to Win

Mentality

If you’re off to Rosehill in Sydney for the races this Saturday, it’d be wise to turn up early. The first two races on the card are the most prestigious, especially race 1, the Group 2 Premiere Stakes. The $150,000 event has drawn some of the best sprinters from around Australia and New Zealand.

Star gelding Phelan Ready, who at only three years old, has won over 3.2 million dollars, looks set for this one. His two wins, including last year’s Group 1 AAMI Golden Slipper, have come over the 1200m and he has been racing at a higher standard than other competitors in the Stakes. He has not raced since a disastrous attempt at the Sires Produce Stakes in April, but impressed in a barrier trial last Friday.

7 year old Fritz’s Princess may not have won a sum anywhere near Phelan Ready’s fortune, but the experience of 9 wins, especially the three over 1200m is one advantage she will happily take.

More Than Great looks another genuine chance, and his owners are looking to move him on to the Golden Rose later this month. The colt has only raced three times, but has won two of them and placed the other. The Premiere stakes will be a major step up in class for him, but he’s been racing so well I think he’ll be able to handle it.

Pay no heed to the nomination of Pillar of Hercules. Trainer Peter Moody has confirmed that the 5 year old will not race. Unfortunately, the horse that was once so promising now looks like being destined for smaller and smaller races.

Last year’s winner, Triple Honour, is back for seconds, but after remaining win-less since the event, is not in top form. It should be noted, though, that he has been racing in Group 1 events, and the Group 2 Premiere Stakes should prove a little more to his liking.

I think this race will be tough to bet on. Phelan Ready should start at small odds, but he is far from a safe bet. Although he oozes class, so do does young up-and-comer More Than Great. For an each-way bet I like the Hawkes trained Mentality. The 6 year old is no stranger to Group races, and the distance should suit it better than recent attempts at middle-distance races.

My Tips for the Premiere Stakes at Rose Hill:

5- More Than Great
6- Phelan Ready
4- Mentality
1- Centennial Park

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Rosehill Racecourse in Sydney will come alight on Saturday with the $125,000 Missile Stakes that is set to be one of the biggest with a host of classy runners. The 1100 meter race is placed perfectly in the racing calendar for both winter sprinters and spring racers resuming after a long break and attracts the big group 3 names. There are five horses tipped to be in the running. Dreamscape, Kroner, Fritz’s Princess, Olonana and last years Missile Stakes runner up Typhoon Zed all paying under $10 with the bookies.

After looking at the recent form and trial times Dreamscape is the one to beat here. I expect him to lead early from barrier four and should be well and truly up the front come the home straight. He’s also got what it takes to hold the competition out with a great 10.9 split in the final 200 meters of a 800 meter run recently.

It will be a battle of the big trainers with Gai Waterhouse and Bart Cummings training the favourites. IASbet has installed the Waterhouse trained Dream Scape as clear favourite to win over Bart Cummings Kroner.

Since Dreamscape hit the track he looked destine for a big future after he won the Group Three Up And Coming Stakes on debut in August last year and has continued to impress to this day with some great racing.

Our tips for the race

Dreamscape to win paying 2.80 with IASbet. He has earnt the respect from the field and is definitely the one to beat

Kroner will be up there with Dreamscape but may just miss with a place. There’s plenty of value for him at 5.00 with IASbet. He hasn’t raced in over a month where he was beaten as the favourite at the Takeover Target Stakes at Gosford where he previously had a great lead up to the race winning 3 of his last 4 races.

IASbet is the place to go for race betting. More times than not they have the best odds and cover all Australian and International racing events. They also give new members a $100 free racing bet when you make $50 worth of bets, simply use the promo code SBLOG100 when joining. Check their site out here for more info and the latest odds for the 2009 Missile Stakes.