Sportsbet Blog

The biggest Group 2 race this week is the $200,000 Schillaci Stakes at Caulfield. Run over 1000m, it’s a premier race for sprinters. Some great sprinters have won this race, such as Mahogany, Miss Andretti and Gold Edition. The Stakes is considered a good form guide for several sprint races later in the carnival including the Schweppes Stakes on Cox Plate Day.

Some of the horses in this year’s Stakes are already great, including star gelding Apache Cat. He surprisingly disappointed in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes, but he is a much better horse than that result suggests. He also has the advantage of 5 wins on this track before. Apache Cat is currently favourite with Betfair at $4.80, some pretty juicy odds.

Lucky Secret is at $5.10. He also disappointed in the Manikato Stakes, finishing 9^th, but some quality middle distances runners such as Phelan Ready were also racing, making it hard for a sprinter. The 6 year old has an incredible record, winning 12 of his 20 starts.

This will be 3 year old Paprika’s ($6.20) first Group race, after beginning a promising career in Queensland. The filly has raced five times for four wins and a second, and now is definitely the best time for her to step her racing up to Group level. However she has not raced in Victoria yet, and if rain brings about a heavy track she may be in a bit of trouble.

Turffontein ($17.50) was another horse who failed to impress in the Manikato Stakes, but his win in the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes last month was as good as any. The Anthony Cummings trained 6 year old has not had much luck in the past, but his connections will be hoping that this is his year.

Wanted has been popular with the punters and is now at $5.80. He is very experienced at Group level for a three year old and, unlike others in this race, performed well in the Manikato Stakes, finishing fourth.

Sprint races are always open; anyone can win. However, I think it will be closely contested between Apache Cat and Lucky Secret for first place. I am not sure who will win, so stick with Apache Cat ($4.80 isn’t bad odds at all). My third tip is Paprika on the basis of her recent form. Turffontein will also provide a little value.

My Tips:

Apache Cat

Lucky Secret

Paprika

Turffontein

While the Caulfield Guineas showcases the best 3 year olds from around the country, the Yalumba Stakes shows off some of the best weight-for-age horses. Champion horses have won the race before, such as Kingston Town, Sky Heights and Lonhro. The Stakes is run over 2000m and is worth $400,000.

The favourite in this year’s race is Whobegotyou, who seems to be favourite in every race he takes part in. He is at $2.50 at the moment, and with his recent form it’s easy to see why. He won the Group 2 Dato’Tan Chin Nam Stakes last month and was a close second in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes.

However, the horse that beat him the Underwood Stakes, Heart of Dreams, is also racing, and will be looking to win again. He looked promising earlier this spell, but was unable to win until the Underwood Stakes and now looks at the peak of his form. Heart of Dreams is at $3.20, but may be a little short.

One horse with some juicier odds is Nom Du Jeu at $12.00. He is not long back from a spell, and after two seconds, should be ready to make an assault on the winner’s circle. He has been nominated for the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup. Of those the Cox Plate looks the likely target.

Douro Valley ($51 at Betfair) won this race last year, but unfortunately has gone backwards since then. He finished last in the Underwood Stakes, which shows that he is, honestly, out of his league here.

Veteran Vision and Power is at $9.00. He is yet to place in a race since April, though his form over the last few weeks is hinting at something big. He finished fourth in the Group 1 George Main Stakes, and this might be the race for him, considering he has won over the distance twice before.

I think Heart of Dreams might get the better of Whobegotyou here, but expect an epic last 400m. Vision and Power will also be there as always. For a little more value, watch out for Nom Du Jeu, who expect to shorten significantly in price for the Cox Plate if he wins this.

My Tips:

Heart of Dreams

Whobegotyou

Vision and Power

Nom Du Jeu

The third Group 1 race at Caulfield this week is the $350,000 David Jones Toorak Handicap. The race is run over 1600m, and while it is not considered to be a great lead up for the longer distance races in the carnival, traditionally winners of this race have continued to run well over the mile or up to 2000m. Past winners of this race include Poetic King, Barely a Moment and Divine Madonna.

This year’s field is a big one with lots of talent, so picking a winner will be difficult. The favourite is 6 year old Raheeb, who won last week’s Herald Sun Superstable Stakes. His two races before that had been a little lukewarm, but it looks like he’s hit form at the right time.

At $7.00 is Gold Salute, who has not raced much at Group level. He has an excellent record, but a Group 1 may be a bit too big of a step up at the moment. However, he is a good horse and is in great form, the only query is class. He also has wins over this distance and on this track.

Classy horse Raffaello is at also at $7.00. He has performed well in the start of the Carnival, finished third in the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes. Trainer Mark Kavanagh has him primed for this Spring Carnival. After a failed Autumn Carnival last year, it looked like Raffaello was set for a career in Metropolitan racing, but things have changed.

Pillar of Hercules finished third in this race last year, and looked set for a stellar racing career. However, controversy over his underworld connections and an injury to his knee saw that stellar career turn into a mediocre on. He is at $71.00 here, after finishing 11^th in the Superstable Stakes.

Rock Kingdom ($8.50) is racing on a tight schedule. He raced excellently to win the Epsom Handicap at Randwick last week, and has travelled down to Caulfield this week for the Toorak Handicap. His form is excellent; not just any old horse wins the Epsom Handicap, the only problem is that he has not raced at Caulfield, or in Melbourne before.

I think that Rock Kingdom will win, despite the fact that this will be his first race in Melbourne. Raffaello is a classy horse and will race well, and I think it is never wise to ignore the favourite, so I will put Raheeb in as my third pick. For some value take a look at Magical Pearl ($21.00 at Betfair), who finished 4^th in the Dato’Tan Chin Nam Stakes and has won 40% of his races.

My Tips:

Rock Kingdom

Raffaello

Raheeb

Magical Pearl

The Melbourne Spring Carnival really heats up this weekend with the Group 1 Age Caulfield Guineas at (where else but?) Caulfield. The prize money totals $1,000,000 which makes the Caulfield Guineas one of the premier 3 year old races in Australia. The history of the race is filled with top class winners who went onto better things, such as Lonhro, Weekend Hussler and last year’s winner, Whobegotyou.

The field this year is sure to contain some stars in the making, indeed, some such as Denman, can almost claim “star” status already. Denman is currently favourite with Betfair at $2.80. It might be a little unbelievable, but he is probably a good bet at those odds. He has won his past six races, including the Group 1 Golden Rose. If the bad weather continues he will also have the advantage of winning on a heavy track before. The only doubt that should be considered is that this will be his first race at Caulfield.

Denman will be facing some tough competition though; none tougher than the Gai Waterhouse trained Manhattan Rain ($5.00). The colt may not have won as many races as Denman, but his record has been fantastic. He won the Group 1 Sires Produce Stakes and finished third in the AAMI Golden Slipper earlier this year. His form of late has not been disappointing, finishing third in the prelude to this race last month.

Trusting finished second in the same prelude, and is currently second favourite with Betfair at $4.85. He only started racing in July this year, but he already has a group win under his belt in the Group 2 Warwick Stakes. He has some very tough competition in this race however, but he is not at all without a chance.

If you’re searching for some value, look no further than Carrara. Surprisingly the Tony Vasil colt is at $21.00, despite having excellent form in listed races around Melbourne.

This race is always packed with class, and this year is no exception. I think it will be a very close race, but it would be almost criminal to go against Denman’s form. I am a big fan of Manhattan Rain, so he’s in my top three. I’m also willing to invest a little faith in So You Think ($9.00), who is inexperienced, but promising. And as I mentioned before, for value, go with Carrara.

My Tips:

Denman

Manhattan Rain

So You Think

Carrara

Along with the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes held on the same day, the Underwood Stakes is the first Group 1 race in Melbourne’s Spring Carnival. It is a prestigious race, last year won by Weekend Hussler, and other winners include Mummify, Northerly and Octagonal. There is $350,000 worth of prize money on offer, with $210,000 going straight to the winner of this 1800m race.

Whobegotyou ($2.80 favourite with Betfair) won last week’s Dato’Tan Chin Nam Stakes over some good competition, and he is the standout runner not only in this race, but for the rest of the Spring Carnival. He has already won four prestigious Group races, and still at only four years old looks to have a bright future ahead of him.

There is no shortage of in-form horses in this race, and Vigor ($6.00) hit some excellent form when he beat Typhoon Tracy, Master O’Reilly and Melbourne Cup favourite C’est La Guerre to the line in the Makybe Diva Stakes last Saturday at Flemington. Vigor is now equal favourite for the Melbourne Cup and a win here would see his price shorten even more.

Typhoon Tracy with odds of $6.50 is another impressive horse who was just behind Vigor in his last win. Typhoon Tracy has only run in a handful of races, but they were all so well picked by her trainer Peter Moody and her management that she has at least placed in all of them. Despite two placings, she has not won a race since March and it is sure her connections are confident here.

When will the nightmare end for Efficient? The grey gelding won the Melbourne Cup in 2007, but has not even placed in a race since then. If he fails here then his trainer John Sadler will need to seriously think of retirement. He is at $34, though I’m certainly not taking a risk on him.

If you are looking for a little value then Zarita is at $14.00. The mare won last week’s W.H Stocks Stakes and finished third in the Memsie Stakes at Caulfield a few weeks earlier. She will be looking towards the Cox Plate now, and if she surprises here, her odds for the Plate won’t be $31.00 for long.

I think after Whobegotyou’s impressive win in the Dato’Tan Chin Nam Stakes he deserves favouritism and should win here, but he will have some tough competition in the form of Vigor, Typhoon Tracy and possible J.J Liston Stakes winner Predatory Pricer ($9.00). As I mentioned, Zarita might be good for a little value, both here and in the Cox Plate.

My Tips:

Whobegotyou

Typhoon Tracy

Vigor

Zarita

While all the Group 1 races may be at Caulfield this week, Rosehill still has three top class Group 2s. The 1500m Shannon Stakes is a premier race for three year olds and upwards, with a $150,000 prize pool, and features some very good racers.

Rangirangdoo ($3.70 with Betfair) has been nominated for the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup. He has been in great form of late, although this will be his first real test. He won the Group 3 Tramway Handicap, which elevated him into view for the major races in Melbourne this spring. This race may prove whether he is worth a place as a contender or not.

Strat’s Flyer ($4.80) finished second to Rangirangdoo in the Tramway Handicap, and also looks a good racer. However, he has not had a great deal of experience at Group level, and this race will probably decide whether he continues to aim towards the Epsom Handicap or continue at a smaller level.

Drumbeats ($7.00) may be inexperienced, but he has already proved himself to be a handy horse. He has only won once but has placed in all of his other 4 starts, including a second place in the Group 2 Roman Consul Stakes.

One of the younger horses in the race, four year old O’Lonhro ($2.70), has the best recent Group record and deserves to start favourite. He won the Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes two weeks ago and will either go on to the Epsom Handicap in Sydney or the Caulfield Cup/Cox Plate in Melbourne.

It’s a very small field for a Group race, so anyone is a chance, even $201.00 shot Yallingup. He is in some horrible form, but he showed a flash of brilliance when he won the Group 3 Frank Packer Plate at Randwick in April this year.

O’Lonhro is the standout horse in this race and should win comfortably. There are some other good horses like Drumbeats, Strat’s Flyer and Rangirangdoo that will challenge, but they aren’t quite up with him in class. For a bit of value, I’m going with Ivory Pegasus ($10.00), who hasn’t had much luck with Group races but is in some good form.

My Tips:

O’Lonhro

Rangirangdoo

Drumbeats

Ivory Pegasus

The Melbourne Spring Carnival really starts this weekend, with two Group 1 races. The Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, which has also been known as the Invitation Stakes has been run since 1951 and past winners include Manikato, Encosta De Lago and Exceed and Excel. Traditionally, horses that do well in this race run well in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap in three weeks.

Orange County is going for back-to-back Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, and he is a fair chance. His effort in the his last run, the Memsie Stakes, was dismal, but he has been around long enough to know how to pick himself up and come out with a great race. He is at $13.00 with Betfair, but be assured that those odds would have been a lot smaller if he had performed well in the Memsie Stakes like he should have.

Favourite for the race is Raffaello at $5.50. He has run in Group races five times, but his best result is only a third in the Group 3 Easter Cup at Caulfield this year. He impressed with a win in an open race in August, but he may be a bit too short to warrant a bet at this stage.

Five year old gelding Chasm ($8.50) finished third in the Group 3 Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes in a tough race, and is one of the favourite horses here at $8.50. He had some excellent form throughout last year, and will be looking to repeat that in his first Group 1 race.

Gold Salute ($7.50) beat Chasm to line in the Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes, but still couldn’t manage to win. He is in the best form of his career at the moment and is another horse nominated for the Epsom Handicap. He is a good chance here, and with no short-priced favourite, is a good piece of value.

Estee was unlucky in the Let’s Elope Stakes at Flemington last week, but is one of the shorter-priced horses at $10.00 is this race. The mare has done nothing in her attempts at Group racing so far, but trainer Lee Freedman will be hoping that is on the change.

I am going to back Gold Salute to the line in this race, but it will be close. Raffaello and Chasm are two other top-class horses, and you can never discount the veteran Orange County.

My Tips:

Gold Salute

Raffaello

Chasm

Orange County

This Saturday’s Group 2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes may be a bit of a mouthful, but it will be mentioned many times, as it is one of the biggest lead up races for later in the spring. Traditionally, the 1600m Stakes has been a great guide for the WS Cox Plate, with 8 of the past 9 winners of the Plate coming in the top three in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes.

The horses in this year’s race will certainly be hoping to continue the trend, with all but two of the racers nominated for the Cox Plate. One of these horses is Jolie’s Shinju ($7.50 with Betfair). The Japanese raider has been nominated for the three big races this spring, but this might just be a warm up race for her. She has won several prestigious races in Singapore, including the Group 1 Emirates Singapore Derby.

The current favourite for the Cox Plate, Whobegotyou ($2.90), will probably start favourite here, and deservedly so. He has finished second in his past two starts, and this should be the perfect race to start a winning streak that could continue until the Cox Plate.

El Segundo ($4.00) won this race in 2007, and then went on to win the Cox Plate. He’ll be back for more on Saturday, and if he wins this race, expect him to become the clear favourite to win a second Cox Plate. He will need to overcome some recent bad form, however; he has not won since the 2007 Cox Plate.

Mic Mac ($3.60) possibly has the best form leading into this race. The 4 year old gelding has only lost one of his 8 races so far. He has won his past two since coming off a spell, including the Group 2 Memsie Stakes, which he won over several horses in this race, including Whobegotyou, El Segundo and Efficient.

I think Mic Mac’s form is too hard to ignore, but he will be strongly challenged by Whobegotyou. I think a quinella on those two will prove a good bet, and throw El Segundo in to make a fairly strong Trifecta. I’d love to see those three battling out in the Cox Plate. My fourth bet is Jolie’s Shinju, though I think her owners will not be too concerned with this race.

My Tips:

Mic Mac

Whobegotyou

El Segundo

Jolie’s Shinju

Saturday’s Group 2 Theo Marks Stakes, run over 1400m, is one of the more even races this weekend. Very few in the field of 11 are not legitimate chances, and there is not one clear favourite. The race is worth a nice $200,000, but most horses will be looking further ahead to the Group 1 Epsom Handicap to be held at Randwick on October 3.

Triple Honour, who finished third in last week’s Chelmsford Stakes, is one of the three horses battling for favouritism with Betfair, and is currently winning the race at $4.40. The five year old is a veteran of Group races, but his record in them is less than wonderful.

Another short priced horse is Racing to Win ($5.00), who has overcome past injuries to be at his peak for this spring. The gelding had a reasonable first-up race in the Warwick Stakes, but is now looking to improve and move on to the Epsom Handicap or the Cox Plate.

There isn’t a great deal of value to be found in this small field, but it’s worth having a look at Mentality, who is at $13.00. He was fantastic when he won the Premiere Stakes last month, but took a step backwards when he finished ninth in the Group 3 Tramway Handicap. However, if he can regain some form, he should prove some very good value.

I was a little shocked to see Mr Baritone ($6.50) in the top three in the Warwick Stakes a few weeks ago; I had though he was well past his prime. However, he looks set to have another (possibly his last) crack at the Sydney Spring Carnival, and is at $6.50 here. He still has a little way to go before convincing me, but he is one to watch for in this race.

This will be the first race for Rock Kingdom, who is nominated for both the Cox Plate and Epsom Handicap, since coming 9^th in the AJC Australian Derby in April. He has had some excellent form this autumn though, and could easily win this race.

I think Rock Kingdom will win this race, but Triple Honour and Racing to Win will not be far behind him. If you’re looking for a little value, Mentality is the way to go. With such an even field, you’re going to need a pretty open box trifecta.

My Tips:

Rock Kingdom

Triple Honour

Racing to Win

Mentality

The Up and Coming Stakes is one of two Group 3 races at Randwick on Saturday. Run over 1200m, there is a cool $125,000 in prize money up for grabs. The race is specifically for three year old colts and geldings.

Of all the racers in the Up and Coming Stakes, I like Sniplaz the best. While I didn’t give him a chance in the San Domenico Stakes a few weeks ago, he came out and proved me wrong, and probably would have won if he wasn’t blocked for a run. He still managed an impressive second, and will be back to his preferred 1200m, where he has won twice. He is currently paying $8.50 at Centrebet so at these odds there’s plenty of value for him this weekend.

You can’t discount Shellcrape ($3.20), who did win the San Domenico Stakes. He beat several horses in this race and is very experienced for a three year old. From his ten starts, he has won four times, and placed in five others.

Another one to watch for is the Gai Waterhouse Judicial ($35.00). Unlike other three year olds in the race, he has had hardly any experience. He has raced once for a win, but this will be a significant step up in class for him, though I am sure Waterhouse would not enter him into a race like this unless she had confidence in him.

I’d stay away from the accident prone Winter King ($7.50). He has had problems in four of his seven starts, and although he may have won three races, this is a major step up in class.

I’m going to go for Sniplaz in this race. Hopefully he can get out into the open easily and run away with it. Then I’m going with Shellscrape, and the “Up and Coming” Judicial. My fourth tip is the impressive Onemorenomore, who is coming off a three month break, but has probably the best result of any of the runners, a first in the Group 1 Champagne Stakes.

My Tips:

1st. Sniplaz

2nd. Shellscrape

3rd. Judicial