Sportsbet Blog

Punters are convinced that this year’s Rising Star award will be won by a long shot, with relative unknowns Billie Smedts (Geelong), Anthony Miles (GWS) Brandon Ellis (Richmond), Lachie Neale (Fremantle) and Jarrod Witts (Collingwood) all being well backed with online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au.

With GWS number 1 draft pick Jon Patton expected to be sidelined for the early stages of the season, Richmond first round pick Brandon Ellis has received more bets to win the Rising Star than any other player. If he is to get up and win the award those punters who showed early faith will be well rewarded, with Ellis currently priced at $67 to win.

Another long shot Billie Smedts has been the second best backed player and has come in from $67 to $51.

Bets have also been placed on Miles at $501, Neale at $401 and Witts also at $401.

Gold Coast’s Josh Caddy has continued to have strong support and has firmed further from $21 to $16 after starting the market as a $51 chance, while GWS young gun Stephen Coniglio has also been popular with the punters and has firmed from $10 to $9. Cats ruckman Nathan Vardy has drifted significantly from $9.00 to $41 after it was revealed he may not be available to play until mid-season.

“Without that stand out player it really is an open market and the punters seem certain that it will be an outsider who wins this year’s award,” said sportsbet.com.au’s Shaun Anderson.

“While names like Billie Smedts, Anthony Miles and Brandon Ellis may not be well know just yet, if the money is right we will all know who they are by years end.”

“Stephen Coniglio and Josh Caddy continued to be the best backed of the established players and have received much more betting action that the two favourites in Kane Lucas and Mitch Wallis.” Market courtesy of sportsbet.com.au

(Prices from Wednesday 1 February in brackets) 2012 Rising Star Winner

$7.00 Kane Lucas (Carl) (steady) $8.00 Mitch Wallis (WB) (steady) $9.00 Stephen Coniglio (GWS)

(in from $51)

$10 Jeremy Cameron (GWS) (steady)

$13 John Butcher (Port), Sam Day (GC) (steady) $15 Chad Wingard (Port), Jared Polec (Bris) (steady) $16 Josh Caddy (GC)

(in from $21)

$17 Tom Mitchell, Adam Treloar (GWS), Dylan Shiel (GWS) (steady)

$11 Jon Patton (GWS)

(in from $41)

While Buddy Franklin is the short priced favourite to win this year’s Coleman Medal, Adelaide Crows forward Taylor Walker is looming as a smokey according to online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au.

Initially priced at $26, the Broken Hill junior has come into $23. In a sign that the punters think this could be his break out year, he has been the second best backed pick for the Coleman with sportsbet.com.au, only behind Buddy Franklin who is favourite at $2.75.

“The only player we have taken more bets on is Buddy. The punters obviously think there is some value in Walker’s odds,” said sportsbet.com.au’s Shaun Anderson.

“There is no doubt he has the talent and he looks to be the Crow’s main man in the forward line. The question will be over his consistency, but the punters don’t seem to worried about it as we keep taking bets on him.”

One punter is particularly confident, having $500 on Walker at $26 to collect $13,000.

Tigers full forward Jack Riewoldt has been the big drifter in the market, now $10 after starting at $6.00.

Kurt Tippett has firmed from $31 to $26 while the punters believe Ross Lyon’s arrival at Fremantle could see Matthew Pavlich spending more time in the midfield as opposed to the forward line forward line, with the multiple All Australian drifting from $21 to $34. Market courtesy of sportsbet.com.au 2012 Coleman Medal (Prices in brackets from November 2011 when the market opened)

$2.75 Lance Franklin (in from $3.50) $7.00 Travis Cloke (out from $5.50) $10 Jack Riewoldt (out from $6.00) $14 Josh Kennedy (out from $11) $16 Jonathan Brown (out from $11) $18 Nick Riewoldt (in from $21) $21 James Podsiadly (out from $15) $21 Stephen Milne (in from $23) $23 Taylor Walker (in from $26) $23 Mark Lecras (steady) $26 Kurt Tippett (in from $31) $28 Steve Johnson (out from $26)

$34 Matthew Pavlich (out from $21)

Punters have been quick to step into some short priced favourites for Saturday’s Flemington meeting with Helmet, Mosheen and Black Caviar all very popular early.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters had identified the three as good things on Saturday but he was happy to let them on. “We took bets of $10,000, $5000 and a number of $1000 and $2000 bets on Mosheen in the first few hours of putting the market up and she has shortened from $1.85 to $1.80,” Sullivan said. “Helmet was also well backed early with one punter having $16,000 and he has been rock solid at $1.75.

“Many punters are doubling Mosheen or Helmet up into Black Caviar or even taking the treble.” “I am happy to let the punters on though as Mosheen is in a high class field while Helmet does a few things wrong, isn’t great first up and probably has an eye on the Guineas and Dubai.”

is currently $1.12 with Sportingbet and Sullivan said they expected punters to step in again. “Her supporters are fiercely loyal and why wouldn’t they be after the wins she has given them and they will come for her again this week,” he said. “Dropping from 1400m to 1000m against the second best sprinter in the country means we will be taking her on again but it is becoming a very costly exercise for Sportingbet.”

RACING

Flemington Race 4 – The VanityHard to tip against classy filly Mosheen ($1.80) who was super impressive first up and has the class edge on her rivals. There are two improving types here. Shopaholic ($6.00) won well first up, has a senior rider for this assignment and still has plenty of upside. Great Dame ($5.50) bolted in at Sandown in weaker grade but looked impressive. She should be able to dictate from the front and might be hard to run down. Sydney filly Angel Of Mercy ($10.00) creates interest. She has her share of ability and the booking of Craig Williams is a good lead.

Flemington Race 7 – Speediness rated on top in an open affair ($4.00). He looked good winning first up at Sale and will be better suited at 1400 and has form around Sincero which is a good for a race like this. Pago Rock ($4.60) has a great record winning six of eight and could get a soft lead here. Agrippa ($6.00) is racing well and drops 8.5kg for this and is sure to be in the finish. Niblick ($7.50) has a good first up record and you can expect him to be the one closing late.

Warwick Farm Race 5 – Thoroughbred Breeders ClassicLooks a strong race which sees the return of the top class mare Beaded ($2.80). She’s a Group One winner who looks well placed in this and she boasts a very good first up record and will be the one to beat. Red Tracer ($4.00) is next best. She’s been trialling well. She also performs well first up but jockey Hugh Bowman will need a touch of luck form the awkward draw. Steps In Time ($5.50) returned with a good win in open company at Canterbury, this race is a step up in class but she does look to be an improving type. At nice odds, Balmont ($15.00) could be the knock out runner, and she’s had two solid trials in preparation for this. Include Lady’s Angel ($10.00) if the track is wet.

Warwick Farm Race 6 – Royal Sovereign Stakes. Interesting race with horse to follow through autumn resuming. Manawanui ($2.30) is clearly the top rated runner here. He looks beautifully placed at level weights. There doesn’t look to be a lot of speed in this so he won’t be too far back in the run. Only query is if his long spring preparation has done him any harm, however he has been trialling well. Next pick is the very promising Moment Of Change ($3.50) who created a huge impression in the spring and trialled sensationally at Rosehill recently. This will be his first attempt at racing clockwise under race conditions, and interestingly some of his stable mates appear to have struggled with this recently. Hot Snitzel ($10.00) will be primed to run a race first up and is the specialist sprinter in this field. Free Wheeling ($11.00) has had early support indicating he’s ready to fire.

Harness Racing – Bonus Bet

Melton Race 3 Big night of racing in the west where it looks to be a race for the favourites in the heats of the Inter Dominion, but shrewd punters might find some value given these races are run over the short distance of 1600m which tends to bring the good horses back to the field. Harness punters can enjoy a special Bonus Bet on Friday night – simply back the winner of Melton Race 3 and receive a matched bet on Gloucester Park Race 2, which is a heat of the Inter Dominion and looks a terrific race between Washakie ($2.25) and Auckland Reactor ($1.75).

Washakie will lead, he loves the track and is suited by the short distance, while Auckland Reactor should sit outside him and has the class to finish over the top. If the two favourites get caught in a speed battle, group one winner David Hercules ($15.00) could be a knock out chance. Click here for details on our bonus.

AFL – NAB Cup

Footy fans get their first taste with the NAB Cup kicking off on Friday night with Richmond, North Melbourne and Hawthorn meeting in the first block of games. Punter’s keen to get stuck into the footy betting should check out IASbet.com with plenty of betting specials plus Coleman Medal, Brownlow Medal, club Best and Fairest markets available plus some special markets including under/over season markets for players such as Buddy Franklin, Travis Cloke, Jack and Nick Reiwoldt, Tom Hawkins among others.

English singer Adele is set to scoop the pool at the 54th Grammy Awards on Monday with online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au installing her as the overwhelming favourite in the Record, Album and Song of the Year categories. Adele’s Rolling In The Deep is the $1.20 favourite to take out the Record of the Year category ahead of The Cave by Mumford & Sons ($5.00), Holocene by Bon Iver ($8.00), Grenade by Bruno Mars ($8.00) and Katy Perry’s Firework ($15).

In Album of the Year category, Adele’s 21 is at $1.10 with her closest competition coming from Bruno Mars with Doo-Woops & Hooligans ($7.50) and the Foo Fighter’s Wasting Light ($9.00). Born This Way by Lady Gaga ($11) and Rihanna’s Loud ($23) are the outsiders in that market. Adele’s Rolling In The Deep is the $1.25 favourite for the Song of the Year with All Of The Lights by Kanye West next in the market at $4.50 followed by The Cave from the Mumford & Sons ($7.50), Holocene by Bon Iver ($17) and Grenade by Bruno Mars ($19).

“The markets clearly reflect Adele’s popularity and the punters are definitely keen on her to take out all three categories,” sportsbet.com.au’s Ben Hawes said. In the Best New Artist category, Nicki Minaj is the $2.00 favourite with Bon Iver ($3.25), The Band Perry ($4.00), J. Cole ($7.00) and Skrillex ($13) also in the mix. Markets courtesy of sportsbet.com.au

54th Grammy Awards Record of the Year

$1.20 Rolling In The Deep – Adele $5.00 The Cave – Mumford & Sons $8.00 Holocene – Bon Iver $8.00 Grenade – Bruno Mars $15 Firework – Katy Perry

54th Grammy Awards Album of the Year

$1.10 21 – Adele $7.50 Doo-Woops & Hooligans – Bruno Mars $9.00 Wasting Light – Foo Fighters $11 Born This Way – Lady Gaga $23 Loud – Rihanna

54th Grammy Awards Song of the Year

$1.25 Rolling In The Deep – Adele $4.50 All Of The Lights – Kanye West featuring Rihanna, Kid Cudi & Fergie $7.50 The Cave – Mumford & Sons $17 Holocene – Bon Iver $19 Grenade – Bruno Mars

54th Grammy Awards Best New Artist

$2.00 Nicki Minaj $3.25 Bon Iver $4.00 The Band Perry $7.00 J. Cole $13 Skrillex

After the surprise of leaving the official interest rate on hold today, online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au believes home owners are a good chance of receiving a rate cut at the March RBA meeting. A decrease between 0.01 and 0.25 percent is the favourite outcome at $1.50, while punters who think the rate will stay the same for the second month in a row can get odds of $2.20.

While larger decreases between 0.25 and 0.5 percent or 0.51 or more percent are considered long shots at $10 and $34 respectively, home owners can rest easy knowing that the chances of an increase are remote at $81. In the market for February’s RBA announcement, a decease between 0.01 and 0.25 was the strong $1.22 favourite at today’s announcement and was very well backed by punters.

Those who believed the rate would stay on hold could have enjoyed the $3.50 odds on offer.

“All the money for today’s announcement was for a rate cut so the outcome came as a bit of a surprise,” said sportsbet.com.au’s Shaun Anderson. “With today’s decision, it looks even more likely that there will be a rate cut next month with $1.50 currently priced for that to happen.”

Markets courtesy of sportsbet.com.au

See the latest odds here

March RBA interest rate cut announcement

$1.50 Decrease between 0.01 and 0.25 percent

$2.20 Stays the same

$10 Decrease between 0.26 and 0.5 percent

$34 Decrease between 0.51 percent or more

$81 Any increase

Collingwood’s Scott Pendlebury and Bulldog skipper Matthew Boyd are this week’s big Brownlow Medal movers at Sportingbet Australia following respective Best on Ground performances on Anzac Day.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters were keen on Pendlebury winning three major medals in a row.

“The phone has been running hot for Pendlebury since the odds went back up despite his odds being slashed from $15 to $10 following Monday’s game,” said Sullivan.
“Out of the last four major medals the Brownlow is all that’s eluded him with two Anzac Medals  and a Norm Smith, as well as a Premiership medallion, already sitting in his trophy cabinet.”
While Pendlebury had been well backed, Boyd, who firmed from $17 to $13, could be the one that’s got away from punters according to Sullivan.
“The punters have not come for Boyd at any stage this season,” Sullivan said.
“But you’d think 45 touches would be enough to get him three votes despite his team losing on Monday.
“He did run equal sixth with 20 votes last season and he doesn’t have to compete for votes with quite the same quality that Pendlebury has to.”

Pendlebury’s team mate Dane Swan is the reigning Brownlow favourite at $5.50 followed by dual winner Chris Judd at $6.50.

2011 Brownlow Medal Odds

Dane Swan [COLL] 5.50
Chris Judd [CARL] 6.50
Scott Pendlebury [COLL] 10.00
Jobe Watson [ESS] 13.00
Joel Selwood [GEEL] 13.00
Matthew Boyd [WBD] 13.00
Adam Goodes [SYD] 17.00
Gary Ablett [GC] 21.00
Jimmy Bartel [GEEL] 21.00
Lance Franklin [HAW] 21.00
Sam Mitchell [HAW] 21.00
Brendon Goddard [STK] 26.00
Luke Hodge [HAW] 26.00
Brent Moloney [MELB] 31.00
Others 34.00 Plus

Some early action has been made at Sportingbet with some massive bets placed.

Although Black Caviar is a very short priced favourite for this Saturdays race the punters haven’t backed off with a number of big bets including a bet of $25,000 paying 1.28 placed earlier this week.

With Black Caviar likely to shorten even further by the start of the race sometimes it pays to get in early, so make sure you Sportingbet account today and claim $150 in free bets just for depositing $30!

Flemington
Black Caviar $25,000 @ $1.28, $16,000 @ $1.28, $15,000 @ $1.25, $12,000 @ $1.25, $10,000 @ 1.25
Pontiana $4000 @ $15
Brazilian Pulse $4400 @ $5
Whobegotyou $11,000 @ $1.85, $6000 @ $1.80, $5000 @ $1.80
Undeniably $4700 @ $2.50

Warwick Farm
Ilovethiscity $7000 @ $2.40, $5000 @ $2.50

Punters who backed sentimental favourite Zipping in Saturday’s Australian Cup with online bookmaker sportsbet have received their money back after he was scratched a day before final nominations were accepted.
Generally, punters betting in “all in” markets lose their wager if their horse does not make the final field, meaning those who backed Zipping with any other betting outlet have lost their cash.

“There’s no doubt Zipping is the people’s champ and we’re happy to refund bets on him,” said sportsbet’s Haydn Lane.
Zipping was paying $5.50 for the Australian Cup before his scratching, which now sees Heart Of Dreams firm from $5.00 into $4.20.
More than $10,000 was refunded on Zipping, including one punter who had placed $1500 on the nine-year-old star at $7.
Sportsbet are offering money-back specials on every group race in Australia until the Sydney Cup – over 100 races in total. Simply back any horse and get your money back if it runs second to the SP favourite.
Sportsbet are also paying best-tote exotics (quinella, exacta, trifecta and first four) on every group race in Australia until the Sydney Cup. For full details, please visit sportsbet here.

Sportsbet will also give new customers a massive $200 free bet. See here for more details on this offer.

Updated market courtesy of sportsbet
2011 Australian Cup
$4.20 Heart Of Dreams (in from $5.00)
$6.00 Moudre
$6.50 Precedence
$8.00 Linton
$8.50 Playing God
$9.00 Shocking
$13 Alcopop, Scenic Shot
$17 Cedarberg
$21 Ginga Dude
$31 Laristan
$41 Harris Tweed, Eclair Surprise
$51 Cest La Guerre
$61 Anacheeva, Mr Charlie, Booming, Mourayan

Punters with leading online bookmaker Sportsbet believe that should Labor win tomorrow’s federal election, they will have a new leader by the time Australia next goes to the polls.

However, it’s a different story with the Coalition, with Tony Abbott favoured to keep the top job for at least a full term should the Coalition win tomorrow.

“Should Labor win the election, on the whole punters don’t think Julia Gillard will be at the helm in three years time,” said Sportsbet’s Haydn Lane.
“On the other hand, if the Coalition win, Tony Abbott will be the savior and it’s hard to see his position coming under serious threat.”
In overall election betting, Labor continues to drift on the back of strong recent support for the Coalition. Labor is now out to $1.35, with the Coalition at $3.15.
All markets courtesy of Sportsbet

IF Labor win the election, will Julia Gillard be Labor leader at the 2013 federal election?
$1.47 No
$2.50 Yes
(Bets refunded if Labor lose the 2010 Federal Election)

IF the Coalition win the election, will Tony Abbott be Coalition leader at the 2013 federal election?
$1.25 Yes
$3.55 No
(Bets refunded if the Coalition lose the 2010 Federal Election)

2010 Federal Election – Winning Party
$1.35 Labor (out from $1.24 on Tuesday 17 August)
$3.15 Coalition (in from $4.00 on Tuesday 17 August)