Sportsbet Blog

A superb day’s racing at Flemington with seven Group races, three of them at the highest level.

The Australian Cup (Race 7) looks to be en even race with no stand-out WFA performer. Sportsbet’s traders are happy to take on favourite Heart of Dreams.

He had it all his way out in front in the St George Stakes and that is not likely to happen again and he is still a query at the 2000 metres.  Shocking is terrific value at $8.50. Loves Flemington and third up has been set for this race.

Bart Cummings has a good record in this race so look for Precedence to be in the finish. On this day last year he won a 2000 metre race by 7 lengths. Like Shocking and Precedence, Linton will also appreciate the big Flemington track and the addition of blinkers first time is a key gear change.

Alcopop looms as the best ‘roughie’ in the race after returning to form winning the Kilmore Cup. Playing God is a risk as he is not up to this class as yet.

Heart Of Dreams $4.40, Moudre $6.50, Precedence $6.50, Linton $7.00, Shocking $7.50, Playing God $12.00, Alcopop $15, Others $15.00 and above.

History will be made in the Newmarket Handicap (Race 6) when Black Caviar becomes the first horse in Australian racing to win its first ten starts.

Despite the 58 kg something would have to go terribly wrong for her not to win. Most trainers have conceded they are running for second, however, Sportsbet are confident that Star Witness will run the quinella and Hay List will fill the placings.

Star Witness got closest to the ‘great mare’ in the spring, while Hay List has done nothing wrong. Best ‘roughie’ is Beaded who was fantastic first up and is proven down the straight running second to Whitefriars in the Salinger Stakes last time in. Our traders are so confident that Sportsbet is offering double the odds on all horses except Black Caviar.

Black Caviar $1.28, Star Witness $19.00, Hay List $23.00, Beaded $31.00, Hinchinbrook $41.00, Response $51.00, Eagle Falls $51.00,  Others $101.00 and above.

Race Four is the Group Two Blamey Stakes and Sportsbet are very confident that this race belongs to Whobegotyou. He flew first up, is a proven Group One horse and at the set weights and penalties is a ‘good thing’.

The race looks to be a simple quinella race with Dao Dao,  Whobegotyou’s only danger. He meets him 3kg better than the Futurity Stakes and ran third as favourite in this race last year. Spacecraft and Doubtful Jack will both get good runs on the pace but there is still a doubt over Doubtful Jack on a firm track. An easy race for punters around the top two picks.

Whobegotyou $1.80, Dao Dao $4.20, Spacecraft $6.50, Doubtful Jack $10, Roadtrain $19.00, Rockpecker $31.00, Fanjura $31.00, Others $41.00 & Above.

The Kewney Stakes (Race 5) is a much better race for punters with top trainer Peter Moody the key to the race. He has four runners in the race with three of them set to go to the front and race on the speed.

Sayahailmary should lead with Do Ra Mi sitting outside of it and Zelsnitz getting a nice run in behind them. Our traders expect both Do Ra Mi and Zelsnitz to be in the placings, however, they think Lee Freedman will spoil the party with Ain’tnofallenstar. The filly was brilliant in Adelaide and will be even better at Flemington.

The kiwi Twilight Savings is the best ‘roughie’ in the race. She has good form at home behind the talented Jimmy Choux and is drawn to get a better run than when she resumed at the ‘Valley’. Brazilian Pulse first up against fitter horses is a ‘lay’ even though she is the best filly in the race.

Brazilian Pulse $5.5o , Ain’tnofallenstar $6.50, Do Ra Mi $7.00, Zelsnitz $8.00, Divorces $8.00, Twilight Savings $9.00, Sayahailmary $9.00, Others $11.00 & Above.

Flemington Snapshot
Best Bet: Undeniably (Down in grade and well placed)
Best Roughie: Alcopop
Lay of the day: Heart Of Dreams
Tap on the Shoulder: Star Witness at $3.80 in favourite out betting is the way to go in the Newmarket.

Round 6 is rivalry round with great games all weekend. The match of round six would have to go to Friday nights clash against the Saints and the Bulldogs. A win to either club here will gain the confidence they need for what it takes to win the premiership this year.

Best Bet of Round 6

This weeks bet of the round is St Kilda and North Melbourne both to win in a multi. It pays a generous 4.30 with Sportsbet here.

Western Bulldogs V St Kilda Friday Night at Etihad Stadium

Tip: St Kilda

Odds: Western Bulldogs 1.81 St Kilda 2.20

The Saints looked flat footed last week in a scrappy game of football against Port in what could be a start of a downwards turn.

A loss for St Kilda here will be the telling tale for them as they try and replicate their 2009 regular season where they finished on top of the ladder.

I think they will bounce back now they are under dogs. Expect a much better performance from Justin Koschitzke up forward as he tries to make up for the injury of Nick Riewoldt.

North Melbourne V Melbourne Saturday at Etihad Stadium

Tip: North Melbourne

Odds: North Melbourne 2.20 Melbourne 1.80
One month ago this game would have been looked over but with both clubs coming off good wins is has turned into an interesting game.

With talks of a Melbourne finals campaign this year I think the club may be looking a little too far ahead. Although they will start favourite to win the match, my prediction is that Melbourne’s three game winning streak will come to an end.

Adelaide V Port Adelaide Saturday at AAMI Stadium

Tip: Port Adelaide

Odds: Adelaide 2.48 Port Adelaide 1.66

The Showdown XXVIII match this weekend will be a one sided affair with the Power in pretty good form of late. They have the ability to change the oppositions game plan and flip the game on its head which I think will break the crows early in the match.

Adelaide will be without the important Patrick Dangerfield which will make it all the harder for the Crows.

Sydney V Brisbane Saturday Night at the SCG

Tip: Sydney

Odds: Sydney 1.61 Brisbane 2.56

The top of the table Swans have continued to surprise the footy intellects with many of them tipping them out of the top 8 this season.  Paul Roo’s has taken a back flip on his Sydney game plan for his final year as coach and so far has proven successful.

I think Sydney look the cleaner side with plenty of carry through the midfield and accurate kicking to the forwards. Even without key player Craig Bolton I think sydney will win in a close match.

Daniel Bradshaw V Jonathan Brown will be ones to keep an eye on with both forwards doing well this season for their clubs.

Essendon V Hawthorn Saturday Night at the MCG

Tip: Hawthorn

Odds: Essendon 2.47 Hawthorn 1.56

This is a must win for the Hawks. They are stuck on one win for the season and yet to show the form they are known for. I would be wary about betting too heavily on this game, although the Hawks are clear favourite and should win I think Essendon will match them early and only fade out late in the game.

My prediction is the Hawks by 13 points so take the 1-39 points margin paying 2.25 at Sportsbet and you should be safe.

Geelong V Richmond Sunday at Skilled Stadium

Tip: Geelong

Odds: Geelong 1.04 Richmond 22.00

Richmond’s odds keep getting longer and longer, I was shocked to see them at $13 last week but $22 this week at Betfair? Thats beyond a joke!

The Cats will demolish them this weekend especially after the shock loss last weekend to Carlton. I’m tipping the Cats to win by over 40 points paying a small but safe $1.31.

Carlton V Collingwood Sunday at the MCG

Tip: Collingwood

Odds: Carlton 2.42 Collingwood 1.60

A huge crowd will see a very high pressure game on Sunday with both Clubs coming off big wins. The key to the game will be Collingwood’s forward line. If Travis Cloke can kick straight in a pressure game I think they will win. He has struggled in the past in key games but I think he may have over come this and get the win for the Pies.

Pies defender Simon Prestigiacomo will be out again this week as he still struggles with a groin injury. Carlton’s Andrew Walker is sidelined for up to six weeks after breaking his collarbone in their 36 point win over the Cats.

West Coast V Fremantle Sunday at Subiaco Oval

Tip: Fremantle

Odds: West Coast 3.10 Fremantle 1.47

Freo will easily take care of  West coast in this years AFL Derby.West Coast over use the ball and make too many mistakes in the middle which cause to many turn overs. Freo on the other hand are getting the ball nicely into the forward line making life easy for Pav up with a few cameo appearances from big 211cm Arron Sandilands and Hayden Ballantyne.

Keep an eye out for Michael Barlow for Freo. He averaged 30 possessions a game in the VLF last year and has brought that over to the AFL with 32 of his own last weekend. If you haven’t got him in your dream team, get him in.

Round 5 looks to be one of the easiest to tip with the shortest odds for an underdog this round being Melbourne to win at $3.50.

The Match of round 5 is the ANZAC clash between Collingwood and Essendon, its always a huge event and shouldn’t disappoint.

Best Bet of Round 5

I’m taking the plunge this week and taking the 8 leg multi of all the teams I’ve tipped in round five. Its paying around the $4.00 mark with Sportsbet and at a glance looks a safe bet.

Western Bulldogs V Adelaide Friday Night at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Western Bulldogs

Odds: Western Bulldogs 1.15 Adelaide 7.20

Adelaide are looking like they won’t break their bad form and bombing out this year. Although Nathan van Berlo is returning for the Crows I can’t see them beating the Bulldogs who are recalling Brad Johnson and Jason Akermanis. The Doggies are now pretty much equal favourite for the flag this year at $5.00.

Sydney V West Coast Saturday at the SCG

Tip: Sydney

Odds: Sydney 1.19 West Coast 5.80

The Swans look very strong at the moment especially at the SCG and will go on to win their 4th game in a row. West Coast are without star midfielder Daniel Kerr which will make the task even more difficult. My prediction is Sydney by over 39 points paying  $2.25 at Sportsbet

Melbourne V Brisbane Saturday Night at the MCG

Tip: Brisbane

Odds: Melbourne 3.50 Brisbane 1.37

The Lions will upset Melbourne’s 2 game winning streak this weekend when they match-up on Saturday night. Brisbane is a much stringer side and will out muscle Melbourne all over the ground.

Expect a big bag of goals from Brown and Fev in what should be a training session for the Lions.

Port Adelaide V St Kilda Saturday Night at AAMI Stadium

Tip: St Kilda

Odds: Port Adelaide 3.90 St Kilda 1.33

I think the bookies haven’t given Port much respect with long odds of $3.90.  This match will be much closer than many people think.  The Saints welcome back star forward Justin Koschitzke which should see a more conventional St Kilda game.

The Saints have a decent record at AAMI Stadium and should win on Saturday night but not without a gallant fight from Port who are welcoming back Jay Schulz from injury and blooding untried ruckman Matthew Lobbe.

Collingwood V Essendon Sunday the MCG

Tip: Collingwood

Odds: Collingwood 1.31 Essendon 3.95

The ANZAC Day match between these two clubs always lives up to the day we are guaranteed a great match. Both clubs have recalled some big names making the match definitely one to watch.

Essendon expect Brent Stanton, Mark McVeigh and Angus Monfries all to play after recovering from injury.

Collingwood have named Nathan Brown, Chris Dawes, Shane O’Bree and Ben Reid to play with defender Simon Prestigiacomo the only star to miss. The Pies should win the game after the solid 64 point thrashing of the Hawks last week.

Hawthorn V North Melbourne Sunday at the MCG

Tip: Hawthorn

Odds: Hawthorn 1.39 North Melbourne 3.55

The Hawks will bounce back with a win this week with Lance Franklin and star midfielder Brad Sewell both returning. It’s an important match for both the Hawks and North who still only have one win for the season. This will put alot of pressure on the losing club.

I predict the Hawks to take the four points by winning between 1-39 points paying a honest $2.25 with Sportsbet.

Fremantle V Richmond Sunday Night at Subiaco Oval

Tip: Fremantle

Odds: Fremantle 1.07 Richmond 13.00

Sportsbet have the odds spot on here with Richmond out at $13.00. You would expect to see those kind of odds in a horse race let alone a win/lose event!

The Tigers have made six changes to the squad with Nathan Foley, Ben Cousins, skipper Chris Newman, Luke McGuane, Dean Polo and Robin Nahas all named to play, this should make a great after party in WA after the game!

Freo will win comfortably on Sunday and will work their way back up the ladder after falling four spots after the loss to the Saints last week.

Carlton V Geelong Monday at the MCG

Tip: Geelong

Odds: Carlton 5.10 Geelong 1.24

I can’t go past Geelong again this week. They are looking more and more polished every week and will make Carlton look unorganised.

With the short odds of $1.24 I’ll be keeping away from this and taking the 31 point $2.00 line bet.

Round 4 we be looked back on as one of the season builders this year with the cream of the crop doing battle against each other along with the cellar dwellers.

In my mind there are two matches of round four. St Kilda (1) V Freo (2) and Brisbane (3) V Bulldogs (5). Both should be cracking games and should go down to the wire.

Best Bet of Round 4

St Kilda between 1-39 points paying 2.20 at Sportsbet who also will give you uo to $200 worth of free bets. For more info on this offer checkout the Sportsbet website.

West Coast V Essendon Friday Night at Subiaco Oval

Tip: West Coast

Odds: West Coast 1.63 Essendon 2.54

I predict west Coast to win at home, they play a decent brand of footy in the West and with McVeigh out for Essendon I think the task will be out of their reach. I will be interesting to see how Hurley goes for his first game of the year, he will be out to make his mark on the game after serving a club imposed sanction.

North Melbourne V Sydney Saturday at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Sydney

Odds: North Melbourne 2.70 Sydney 1.54

Sydney are my surprise club of the year so far winning 2 from 3 and nearly knocking off St Kilda in round 1. They have changed their game plan this year and are playing a more exiting game which is seeming to work for them.

They should continue their winning for at the Docklands this weekend over the Roo’s who haven’t quite found their feet as yet.

Adelaide V Carlton Saturday at AAMI Stadium

Tip: Adelaide

Odds: Adelaide 1.94 Carlton 2.02

This should be a hard fought game with both clubs struggling early in the season, especially the Crows who are yet to get a win on the board and were expected to be a top 8 side this year.

The Crows regain Johncock to their side that will bolster the back line and could be the difference at the end of the day. Even with Judd back in the side for the Blues I think Adelaide will get their act together and find a win.

Lions V Western Bulldogs Saturday Night at the Gabba

Tip: Lions

Odds: Lions 2.08 Western Bulldogs 1.91

The battle of the big guns. Hall, Brown and Fev all in one game? This time last year I would have said you were dreaming! It should be a great spectacle in a high scoring match.

It will be a matter of who gets more inside 50′s that will win the game and I think the Lions have shown in the last few weeks they have both speed and strength in the midfield and should get over the line. My prediction is the Lions by 12 points.

Collingwood V Hawthorn Saturday Night at the MCG

Tip: Collingwood

Odds: Collingwood 1.67 Hawthorn 2.44

The Pies looked guttered after their loss to St Kilda last weekend and with all the bad press about their Coach Mick Malthouse this week I think they will be out to change the headlines.

Forward Lance Franklin and Backman Josh Gibson are out for the Hawks and Heath Shaw is in for the Pies. It will make the challenge all that more difficult for Hawthorn and I expect the Pies to get a comfortable win.

Richmond V Melbourne Sunday at the MCG

Tip: Melbourne

Odds: Richmond 3.75 Melbourne 1.35

Looking back I think it was 2007 since Melbourne went into a game as favourites and at 1.35 it reflects how bad Richmond are traveling.

The Tigers are without club leaders Chris Newman (leg) and Ben Cousins (club suspension) for the match. I think someone need to tell Richmond that tanking just wont work this year with all the top draft picks going to the new clubs. They are debuting Troy Taylor (South Alice Springs/NT Thunder), Matthew Dea (North Ballarat), David Astbury (North Ballarat) for the game and will struggle to get a flowing game going. Melbourne by 35 points.

Geelong V Port Adelaide Sunday at Skilled Stadium

Tip: Geelong

Odds: Geelong 1.17 Port Adelaide 6.80
Skilled Stadium and Geelong go hand in hand and this match wont be an exception. They will be ruthless on Sunday an wont stop until the final siren after the surprise loss to Freo last week. the Cats have recalled Mooney, Milburn and Ottens for the game and will bounce back with a win.

Look out for Port Adelaide’s Dean Brogan and David Rodan who both are rejoining their club and should be the shining light for Port.

St Kilda V  Fremantle Sunday Afternoon at Etihad Stadium

Tip: St Kilda

Odds: St Kilda 1.35 Fremantle 3.65

1 v 2 and a great match to finish off round 4. The winner here could end up a game clear on top of the ladder with a decent percentage. A restructured St Kilda forward line will see Michael Gardiner the goto man after Nick Riewoldt’s now famous hamstring giving way last week and Justin Koschitzke another week on the side lines due to suspension.

The key to the game will be in the middle with 3rd tier ruckman Rhys Stanley getting the call up along with Steven King to go against giant Aaron Sandilands, if Sandilands can dominate the match it may be a closer game that one might expect.

*See Round 1 2011 Tips Here

 

Round one of the 2010 AFL season is upon us and footy tipping will be very tough this year with the gap between the top four clubs shortening in what could be a very interesting year. Once again the team at Sportsbet Blog will give you our expert tips for every round this year along with a few good betting tips along the way.

It’s always hard to tip round 1 as so much can change during the off season but luckily I predict a fairly straight forward round.

The game of round 1 is defiantly the Western Bulldogs V Collingwood. Both teams have recruited well over the summer with the Bulldogs picking up the “Big Bad” Barry Hall who has shown what the year could bring booting 7 fine goals last week in the NAB Cup grand final. Collingwood had picked up ex St Kilda captain Luke Ball who has impressed in the preseason games and star ruckman Darren Jolly who at his 3rd club has be chosen in the Pies leadership group this year. It will be interesting how the new players go this week and should make for a very interesting game.

Don’t forget to join the 2010 Million Dollar Footy Tipping. Checkout our tipping review or to join see the Sportsbet site here. They also give you up to $200 worth of free bets just for joining!

Best Bet for Round 1

This week I like Adelaide for the straight win. With odds of $1.78 at Sportsbet, I think there plenty of value to be had especially against the weaker Freo side.

Richmond V Carlton Thursday Night at the MCG

Tip: Carlton

Carlton: $1.45

Richmond: $2.80

The season opener should see Carlton get a early win on the board. Richmond looks like they may have another tough year starting at round one.

They will be without the important Jake King after being suspended during a NAB Challenge match against Collingwood last week (why get worked up in a preseason game!). Also the one and only Ben Cousins who isn’t 100% after being admitted to the hospital with gastric inflammation will not at his best.

Geelong V Essendon Friday Night at the MCG

Tip: Geelong

Geelong: $1.23

Essendon: $4.25

The Cats should roll the Bombers on Friday night. Essendon will have to make up for Leroy Jetta (Hand Injury) and Michael Hurley (Club Suspended) both will be out with Hurley to miss the first 3 rounds after a drunken incident in the Grand Final week last year.

Geelong should be at full strength and will be out to start off on a good note after a early drop out from the NAB Cup.

Melbourne V Hawthorn Saturday at the MCG

Tip: Hawthorn

Melbourne: $5.20

Hawthorn: $1.16

Unfortunately it could be history repeating itself for the Hawks with numerous injuries leading into the season proper. They should be able to hold Melbourne off this week but will take alot of perseverance from the Hawthorn midfield.

The Hawks will be without Buddy Franklin, Cyril Rioli, Simon Taylor (long term) and clouds of doubt over Jarryd Roughhead  and Glen Moss who will be 50/50 to play. Wayde Skipper has also been rubbed out for six to eight weeks with a damaged hamstring.

That being said I think they will regroup and beat Melbourne who are still in rebuilding stages.

Sydney V St Kilda Saturday Night at ANZ Stadium

Tip: St Kilda

Sydney: $2.70

St Kilda: $1.48

The Saints play well against Sydney and have a good record at ANZ Stadium. Last year (round 1) St Kilda kept Sydney goalless for 2 quarters of footy at ANZ stadium to run out 15 point winners in a low scoring game.

It will be interesting if the Saints will bounce back to their normal 2009 self after a lackluster NAB Cup series winning 2 games by a point (one of them against Sydney) and getting thrashed by the Bulldogs in the final.

The game will be won in Sydney’s forward line. With two of their top 5 goal kickers from last year in Hall and Jolly leaving the Swans players like Jesse White will have to step up and try and break the usually solid Saints back line.

Brisbane Lions V West Coast Saturday Night at the GABBA

Tip: Brisbane Lions

Brisbane: $1.36

West Coast: $3.20

The Lions, with their new look team and new “Paddle Pop Lion” logo will be one to watch this year if they can stick to the game plans and gel together. Brisbane now boast the most powerful forward line with Brendan Fevola and Jonathon Brown which should see them easily take care of West Coast at the Gabba on Saturday night.

Players like defender Josh Drummond and Justin Sherman have both had great preseasons and will be ones to watch.

Port Adelaide V North Melbourne Sunday at AMMI Stadium

Tip: Port Adelaide

Port Adelaide: $1.45

North Melbourne: $2.80

After an impressive NAB Cup campaign I expect big things from Port this year starting with the Kangaroos on Sunday.

Port impressed in their narrow loss to the Bulldogs a few weeks ago with Daniel Motlop and Justin Westhoff the shining light. They were on top of the Bulldogs for 90% of the game and if they can replicate the flare they played with they should run out easy victors over North Melbourne who will be with out Cruize Garlett, Majak Daw, Levi Greenwood and Ed Lower.

Western Bulldogs V Collingwood Sunday at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Western Bulldogs

Western Bulldogs: $1.64

Collingwood: $2.30

This weeks match of the round will attract a massive crowd and should be a great contest. Both teams are expected to do well this year and Collingwood will be out to knock off the NAB Cup winners and get off to a positive start.

I don’t think they can do it. The Bulldogs now have Barry Hall, the goto man and my Coleman Medal winner prediction. They look to be a near perfect side with the run through the middle and strength and height at either end. My prediction is for the Bulldogs to win by around 28 points.

Keep an eye out for Luke Ball for the Pies, he will be out to impress with his new club. He has racked up the possessions and kicked a few goals in the preseason cup.

Fremantle V Adelaide Sunday at Subiaco Oval

Tip: Adelaide

Fremantle: $2.00

Adelaide: $1.83

Adelaide haven’t had the best start into round one with numerous injuries to their senior players. Vince, McLeod, Burton, Edward, Thompson, Maric and Sellar have all had limited match time over the last few weeks but all are expect to play against Freo on Sunday afternoon.

I really can’t see where Freo could win this match, they are a young side who are still growing and will struggle with the skills of the Crows side. Good luck to coach Mark Harvey in what could be his last year at Freo with his contract running out at the end of the year.

Match Details

Saturday 20th March. 7:10pm at Etihad Stadium.

Sportsbet Odds

Western Bulldogs 1.91

St Kilda 1.91

Preview

The 2010 AFL season is yet to kick off and we already have an epic on our hands for the NAB Cup grand final.

If this game is half as good as the 2009 preliminary final against the two sides (where St Kilda went onto win by 7 points) we will be in for a cracker.

Both teams have played good footy (when needed) leading into the final showing off some new talent along the way which could be the telling part of Saturday nights game.

For the Saints Rhys Stanley and Ben McEvoy have inspired in the last few weeks and both have been named to play in the grand final. Their height and speed played a welcome part in last weeks 70 point dismantling of Fremantle.

[More]

A dominant heat win on Saturday night and now the perfect inside draw has seen Washakie shorten dramatically for Saturday night’s 2010 Inter Dominion Final with leading online bookmaker Sportsbet.

The star New Zealander firmed from $6.00 in to $4.60 with sentimental favourite Blacks A Fake also firming from $4.20 to $4.00 after drawing barrier three.

“Washakie has the gate speed to hold the front if challenged by Blacks A Fake, that’s why we are still betting $4.00 for “Blackie”. I think he’ll he have to do too much work” said Sportsbet’s Matthew Campbell.

Race favourite Monkey King (pictured above) drifted slightly from $2.10 to $2.30 after drawing barrier five. “Ricky May might take a peak at leading but I think with the speed on he will take a position in behind and still be the one to beat” said Campbell.

Although Sportsbet think Blacks A Fake will do it tough I think he has what it takes and has over many occasions shown why he is a superstar in the harness racing world. At $4.00 and taking barrier 3 I think Blacks A Fake is well worth a bet.

Sportsbet are the Inter Dominion Final specialists with betting on the big event right to the race start. They have a special offer giving you up to $200 worth of free bets just for making a deposit! Checkout the Sportsbet site here for more info on this free bet offer.

Cricket season is upon us, and it is time for Australia’s first international test of the summer. The first test of the series against the West Indies, held at the Gabba, has been proclaimed a “walkover.” On paper the Australian team quite easily outranks the West Indian, but you can never judge a match just by statistics. The weather looks excellent in Brisbane, so you can definitely expect a result from the match, and while that is most likely an Australian win, there are plenty of other things to bet on.

Betfair has a huge range of betting options – from top scores to the day when the test match will finish, to the amount of runs scored in the opening partnership. You won’t be bored watching the test, and there are plenty of good value bets.

Australia is $1.27 with Betfair to win the test, while the West Indies are right out at $15.50. The Australian odds are too short for a hobby punter like me, though expect them to be snapped up by many.

There are also odds for the top scorer for each team. For the first innings, Ricky Ponting is favourite in the Australian camp at $4.20, but the two I’m looking at are Shane Watson and Mike Hussey. Both are at $6.00, and both are top-quality batsmen. Watson has been batting well, and Hussey, despite calls for him to resign earlier in the year, has hit some good form in the One Day form of the game. They are both at $3.00 to score a century.

The West Indian team is harder to judge, so I’d stay away from betting on the top scorer unless you are feeling confident. Shivnarine Chanderpaul is at $4.10, while all-rounder Dwayne Bravo provides some value at $7.40.

It’s tough to tell on what day a test match will finish, but there are juicy odds if you can tell. The odds for the test to finish on Day 1, 2, or 3 are $2.50, while the favoured session is the Afternoon of Day 5 at $2.12. I like Day 4’s odds. Each session is at $5.10, and while it is difficult to pick a particular session, I think the Afternoon is looking the most likely.

There are a few things that stick out in my mind as good bets. The first is Shane Watson as top scorer for Australia at $6.00. The second, perhaps a little hopeful, is that the West Indies’ opening partnership will score more than Australia at $2.32. The third is the $2.02 for Watson to score more than Simon Katich.

As the Spring Carnival draws to an end, there is one race day left that should not go unnoticed. There will be several top-class races at Sandown this Saturday, and the Group 2 Sandown Guineas, run over 1600m, is no exception. A handicapped race for 3 year olds, the Guineas has long been known as the race for those too weak to win at Flemington, but you can be sure that only quality horses make it into this race. Some quality horses to have won in the past include King Ivor, Binding, Schilling and Caymans.

This year’s horses include Kidnapped, who has won at Group level before. While he may not be quite to the standard of some other 3 year olds, like those who raced in the Victoria Derby, he is a classy gelding who might progress to Group 1 level next year. His form has been good; he won the Group 3 Inglis Carbine Club Stakes at Flemington on Derby Day. Kidnapped is favourite with Betfair at $2.75

Turf Express ($12.00) has also won at Flemington last start, in the listed Myer Spring Fashion Stakes last week. The Gai Waterhouse-trained colt is used to life in Sydney, but his win at Flemington proves he can race here as well. This will be his first Group race, and he has not won at this distance before, but he is still a chance.

Majestic Music ($5.00) is experienced for a three year old. The filly has won at Group level before, and has to be one of the favoured horses here. She wasn’t good enough in the Thousand Guineas, finishing seventh, but she backed up impressively with a win in the Lexus Hybrid Plate on Melbourne Cup Day. Her experience and form has to put her in the top three here.

I am going for Majestic Music here. Kidnapped has form at Group level, so I’ll put him here as well. Khas Kura ($4.40) has been racing well at a lower level, and for a little value, look at It’llbefantastic at $16.00

MY TIPS:

Majestic Music

Kidnapped

Khas Kura

It’llbefantastic

While the main attraction is over for this spring, Flemington’s Carnival finishes of with a bang with the one and a half million dollar Group 1 Emirates Stakes. It will also be family day, with lots of entertainment for adults and kids alike. The Emirates Stakes is run over 1600m, and it showcases some of the best handicap racing horses. Previous winners of the race include Better Loosen Up, Shaftesbury Avenue, Testa Rossa and Tears I Cry.

Favourite for this year’s race is 3 year old Cox Plate winner So You Think. He is clearly favourite with Betfair at $3.35, and even then they are probably going to be the best odds you’ll find for him. His form has been good – he won a Group 3 and finishing 5^th in the Caulfield Guineas before winning the Cox Plate. He has raced at this distance before; the only query is the track, and even then only if it rains.

Gold Salute is next best at $8.60. He has not raced for nearly a month, but his second in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap was very impressive. His form before that was also very good, although not at a standard similar to this. He has won on this track and over this distance before, though 1600m is at about the edge of his capacities, as he prefers races between 1200 and 1400m.

4 year old Eagle Falls ($15.50) has been impressive this spring. He started off racing in, and winning, some handicap races in August, then moved onto a few Group races, where he didn’t have much luck, but still impressed. He finally managed to win a Group race last weekend in the Group 2 Salinger Stakes on this track. Although his form is good, he has not won a race further than 1200m before.

Vigor ($11.50) was very unlucky to miss out on a spot in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday, but he is here to try and salvage something from his Spring Carnival. He won the Group 2 Makybe Diva Stakes back in September and finished 3^rd in the Caulfield Cup, but his owners and his trainer Danny O’Brien will be hoping he can win a Group 1 race, even if it is a few days later in the carnival than they had hoped.

This is a tough race to pick, and I will go with So You Think, though he is not as safe as his odds sound. Gold Salute and Vigor will be there, and Eagle Falls is some good value considering other competitors have him at as low as $10 – so make sure you get on at Betfair.

MY TIPS:

So You Think

Gold Salute

Vigor

Eagle Falls