Sportsbet Blog

This Saturday’s 2009 Group 1 Golden Rose is the epiphany of races for three year old horses in Australia. Worth one million dollars, the event is a major crowd-puller for Australian racing. 15 horses have been accepted from a nomination field of 63, and the list is far from disappointing.

Star gelding Phelan Ready (with odds of $6.00 at Centrebet) will race, hoping to do better than his third in the Premiere Stakes two weeks ago. He is back to racing against horses his age, which will be a major factor considering the two horses that beat him in the Premiere Stakes, Kroner and Mentality are 5 and 6 year olds respectively.

The impressive Shellscrape (with odds of $14.00), who has won four races and failed to place in only one of his 11 starts, will jump from barrier 8. He finished a close second to surprise winner Rarefied in last week’s Up and Coming Stakes, and ran a fantastic race to win the San Domenico Stakes earlier this month.

Headway ($10.00), who finished second to Phelan Ready in this year’s Golden Slipper, also looks like some value. She finished second in the listed Quezette Stakes two weeks ago after coming off a four month spell. She is up against the boys this week, which will be tough, but consider her for an each way bet.

I like Denman (2.70), the colt who has won his last four starts. The Golden Rose will be a major step up in class, considering his only race at Group level was a Group 3, and it will also be the first time he has raced 1400m. But you can’t fault his racing so far, or his pedigree – his father is champion Lonhro – and I think he will be right up there with the more experienced racers.

Another one to watch out for is Trusting ($5.00), who may be without number one jockey Chris Munce, but certainly not without a chance. The colt won the Warwick Stakes last Saturday at Randwick ahead of older and more experienced runners. While he may have only raced three times, Trusting has jumped straight into Group Racing and performed well.

I think the favourite Denman should win, but I think he may be a little short. There are plenty of horses that could beat him, including Shellscrape and Headway. I also think Trusting will run a good race and you can count on Phelan Ready to give it his all. With so many horses, it looks like a job for a box trifecta.

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My Tips:

Denman

Trusting

Phelan Ready

Shellscrape

Update: See the 2010 Round 22 tips here

The last week of the Home and Away season and Round 22 holds many very important games that will change the way we look at some teams going into the AFL finals. The biggest of all will be the Collingwood V Western Bulldogs game. The winner can secure 3rd position on the ladder and have the opportunity of playing the out of form Geelong first up in the finals.

Another huge game will be Hawthorn V Essendon. The winner of this match takes the final spot of the top 8 and sends the loser packing.

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West Coast V Richmond Friday Night at Subiaco Oval

Tip: West Coast

The Eagles have been in good form in the last couple of weeks (except for the belting the faced at AAMI stadium last weekend) winning 3 of their last 4 games. They will finish the season on a good note in front of their home ground. Lets hope Ben Cousins doesn’t decide to stay in WA for the weekend and meet up with a few of his “old” mates now that Richmond’s season will be over.

Take West Coast between 1-39 points with odds of 2.50 at IASbet

Geelong V Fremantle Saturday at Skilled Stadium

Tip: Geelong

The Cats will be pleased that they have one of the easiest tasks in football playing Freo at Skilled Stadium. They desperately need a good win to halt the free-fall they have suffered in recent weeks. Tom Harley, Steve Johnson (50/50) and James Kelly are set to come back along with Brad Ottens who stared in the VFL last week.

The Cats will win on Saturday its just a matter of by how much. My prediction is about 45 points that will see them back up and going as they start their finals campaign.

I’m tipping the Cats here by over 40 points at 1.45 with IASbet.

Hawthorn V Essendon Saturday at the MCG

Tip: Essendon

The atmosphere at this game will be huge but with no Buddy there’s no Hawks. Both teams are desperate to play finals footy, they will be going hard at the ball playing like it will be their last. Mark McVeigh knows it may be his final AFL game after announcing his retirement earlier this month so expect a best on ground performance from him this weekend.

A winning result here will depend alot on Essendons final team for the Saturday game. Matthew Lloyd and Paddy Ryder are both a chance to play the blockbuster clash for Essendon.

Max Bailey has been a welcome inclusion in the ruck with 23 hit outs last week for the Hawks. He has been sidelined for two years with successive knee reconstructions and will be one to watch especially if Paddy Rider is out of the Essendon team.

Even though Essendon have the shorter break and the WA return trip I think they will have enough to snatch the victory in a close one.

Go Essendon for the straight win here at around 1.95

Carlton V Adelaide Saturday Night at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Adelaide

Although Rob Shirley and Nathan Bock have been ruled out of this home final deciding match Adelaide’s Brett Burton is likely to take the field. I think they have enough depth in the team which should be enough to see them over the line.

Adelaide also have the added bonus of a club ban given to Blues players Eddie Betts, Cameron Cloke and Jeff Garlett after they were late to a training session on the weekend.

IASbet have Carlton as 1.70 favourites to the Crows 2.15 but the Blues inexperience will show on the weekend and the classy Adelaide midfield should get the points.

Jason Porplyzia will be the key to the match after a 6 goal effort last weekend, he has been in fine form of late and should do well at Etihad on Saturday.

With odds of 6.50 at IASbet the Blues/Crows Halftime/Fulltime bet looks good value here.

Sydney V Brisbane  Friday Saturday at the SCG

Tip: Brisbane

A win here will see Brisbane host a home final next week so they will be out to get a comfortable win at the SCG. That being said the Lions are still looking at the big picture not risking backman Daniel Merrett and goal kicking Daniel Bradshaw this weekend to make sure they are 100% for the finals.

I’d expect Michael Rischitelli to play more time up forward along with Brown after his 3 goals in last weekends massive comeback over Port.  I think they have enough talent to kick a winning score.

Take Brisbane for the straight win at 2.05

Port Adelaide V North Melbourne Saturday Night at AAMI Stadium

Tip: Port Adelaide

Port will be out to end the season on a high in what could be club star Peter Burgoyne final match. They suffered a shocking loss last weekend after a 10 goal first quarter all but kicking them out of finals contention. Power needs the Hawks to have a narrow win over Essendon (which is possible) but then they need to thrash North 100+ points to scrape into the 8. Stranger things have happened but it’s a very tough ask.

In front of their home ground I expect Port to have a win.

Take Port by under 39 points at 2.20.

Melbourne V St Kilda  Sunday at the MCG

Tip: St Kilda

St Kilda need to get their game back on track or an early exit from the finals could be on the cards. Its the Saints 1st game this year on the MCG so I expect they will bring in a full team to take as much out of the game as possible.

Luke Ball played a best on ground performance in the VFL last week and is expected to be picked for the team. Lenny Hayes is also expect to make a return to the side after a minor injury ruled him out prematch and although the Saints have been playing down Nick Riewoldt’s knee injury I wouldn’t be surprised if he is a late withdrawal from the game to make sure he is fit for the finals.

Max Hudghton is also right to rejoin the backline after false speculation his hamstring was re-injured in the VFL last weekend.

St Kilda by 40+ points with odds of 1.40 at IASbet is a good bet and although short I think its worth taking.

Collingwood V Western Bulldogs Sunday Afternoon at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Collingwood

One of the games of the round which will show what form both teams are going into the finals with. A win here will give the winning team a alot of confidence going into next week that they are a genuine chance for the flag. A loss will be costly for both teams, so both will be treating it as the start of the finals.

I think the Pies will win here, they have the combination of height (Josh Fraser), class (Dane Swan) and speed (Leon Davis) will see the Bulldogs struggle to keep the football.

I think there value for the Pies here. IASbet have set the odds at 1.73 for them win.

With only three rounds left to be played in the 2009 NRL season many teams will be trying to ramp up the intensity in this weeks round 24 clashes, particularly those in the middle of the ladder.

A loss this week may very well result in not playing finals for a few teams as the competition has been rather tight this year. There is only three points separating the teams placed 5^th through 12^th.

The biggest surprise of last week was the amazing defeat that Brisbane handed Penrith. 24-18 down at half time, Brisbane came out in the second half and turned the game around with 40 unanswered points. The final score was 24-58 in favour of Brisbane.

Also, the Bulldogs have now secured a top four finish with a 10 point win over North Queensland in Townsville on Friday.

All the odds below are from Betfair. Betfair always have the best odds because you bet against other people and not an actual bookmaker. Checkout our Betfair review for more info on why Betfair is a smart choice.

My Round Twenty-Four tips are as follows.

Friday August 21^st @ 7.35pm

St. George Illawarra vs. Brisbane Broncos

This match-up to be played on Friday night is bound to be a thriller as both teams are in great form. It was hard to go past Brisbane after their amazing win last week, but you just can’t go against the likes of St. George Illawarra.  Although I am backing the Dragons, I would not be surprised if the Broncos were able to get up and win.

My prediction is St. George Illawarra with odds of $1.36 @ BetFair by less than 4-12 points.

Friday August 21^st @ 7.35pm

West Tigers vs. Parramatta Eels

Looking to be yet another close game for Friday night, I don’t believe that the West Tigers will be able to keep with the Eels on this occasion. Although I would expect a close game, the Parramatta Eels should not have too much trouble winning this one.

My Tip – Parramatta Eels ($1.80 @ BetFair) by 4-10 points.

Saturday August 22^nd @ 5.30pm

Newcastle Knights vs. North Queensland Cowboys

Newcastle should be able to get up here, but, in my opinion, the North Queensland Cowboys will be right with them all the way. Whatever way this game goes, I wouldn’t expect the difference to be greater than 10 points.

My Tip – Newcastle Knights ($1.46 @ BetFair) by less than 10 points.

Saturday August 22^nd @ 7.30pm

Penrith Panthers vs. South Sydney

Blow-out is all I’ve got to say here. Penrith, although taking an upsetting loss last week, are still the better side in this match-up and this should be clearly shown on the scoreboard at the end of the game.

My Tip – Penrith Panthers ($1.56 @ BetFair) by 8-15 points.

Sunday August 23^rd @ 2pm

Gold Coast Titans vs. Cronulla Sharks

Domination. Quite simply, Cronulla barely has a chance to win this one. The Gold Coast Titans are a quality outfit and will easily take the win here. If you like games with a lot of one sided scoring than this will be the game to watch this week.

My Tip – Gold Coast Titans ($1.12 @ BetFair) by 15+ points.

Sunday August 23^rd @ 2pm

New Zealand Warriors vs. Canberra Raiders

My prediction here is yet another close game. If the difference in the end is greater than 8 points I would be very surprised. New Zealand should get up in the end, but it will be close.

My Tip – New Zealand Warriors ($1.57 @ BetFair) by 4-8 points.

Sunday August 23^rd @ 3pm

Melbourne Storm vs. Manly Sea Eagles

Melbourne is my pick in this one. With only 3 points separating these two teams on the league table, both will be playing hard trying to make the finals, however; Manly just do not have what it takes to win this one.

My Tip – Melbourne Storm ($1.56 @ BetFair) by 6-12 points.

Monday August 24^th @ 7pm

Bulldogs vs. Sydney Roosters

Yet Another blow-out. I would be incredibly surprised if the final score is closer than 12 points. The Bulldogs will easily take the win home in this one.

My Tip – Bulldogs ($1.12 @ BetFair) by 12+ points.

See the 2010 Round 21 tips here

Round 21 becomes crunch time for the teams trying to secure a place in the finals. The one that becomes most important is the Freo V Essendon game. If the Bombers get the win in the West they will have all but secured the 8th spot. This will knock out all hope of the Hawks, and Sydney scraping in and makes it very tough for Port to make the finals.

The game of the round is the Friday Night Football blockbuster with the Dogs V Cats at Etihad Stadium. This game will show how both teams will be heading into their finals series as they try and build some momentum going into September.

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Western Bulldogs V Geelong Friday Night at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Geelong

With only 2 games to go until the finals both teams need to start getting into top form to avoid an early exit in September.

The Bulldogs need to win at least one of the remaining two games (Pies next week) to secure 4th position so will be desperate to get a win here. Their injury worries continue with Ryan Griffen and defender Tom Williams declared they will miss the rest of the home and away season.

Geelong is still yet to show their unbeatable form they had at the start of the season so it will be interesting to see how they preform. I think they will step things up this weekend and comfortably beat the Dogs.

Take Geelong by under 40 with odds of $2.30 at Sportsbet

Carlton V Melbourne Saturday at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Carlton

The Blues have a good chance to get a top 4 spot on the ladder if they win the remaining two games so will be out to make a statement against Melbourne on Saturday.

Melbourne now sitting on four win for the season wont be too eager to get another win and loose the priority draft pick. On the other hand if Melbourne finish the season with only 4 win they become the worst team in the AFL since Fitzroy in the early 90′s and we all know what happened to them.

After the thumping they gave Freo last weekend the Demons now have a better percentage than Freo who are 15th on the ladder.

The Blues will get the win here its just a matter of how much.

I like Carlton to win between 40 and 59 points paying $4.15

Adelaide V West Coast Saturday at AAMI Stadium

Tip: Adelaide

The Crows will dominate the up and coming Eagles at AAMI stadium this weekend with both Patrick Dangerfield and David Mackay expected to play. Adelaide still have a few injury worries with Nathan Bock and Brett Burton unlikely to be right for the match but have enough depth to cover for them.

Crows by 40 points.

Take the Crows to be leading at evey quarter with odds of $1.47 at Sportsbet

Brisbane V Port Adelaide Saturday Night at the Gabba

Tip: Brisbane

An interesting game here with the final chance for Port to scrape into the 8 depending on the result of the Essendon game later in the weekend.

With Brisbane’s position pretty much set in stone it gives Port a good chance to snatch a win if they can overcome their bad form on the road. Live wire forward Daniel Motlop is a good chance to return to the Port side after recovering from a fractured ankle he suffered in round 12 this year.

I think it will be an even game going into the last quarter but think the Lions will be able to kick a winning score in the end.

Brisbane by under 40 points is a good bet here at $2.37

Richmond V Hawthorn Saturday Night at the MCG

Tip: Hawthorn

Hope is not gone for the Hawks to play finals this year but it is the hands of the Football Gods as they need other results to go their way. If by chance they are still a chance after this round they will be playing Essendon in round 22 for a potential spot in the 8.

This is what the Hawks will be basing their game and should break their winning drought this weekend. Richmond have gone back to their hopeless ways after a very disappointing game last week and will miss Jake King and Tom Hislop after being suspended as a result of the melee with the Pies.

The Hawks are paying $3.15 to win by over 40 points, the way the Tigers are playing I think the Hawks have a good shot of getting there too.

St Kilda V North Melbourne Sunday at Etihad Stadium

Tip: St Kilda

Momentum is a key factor going into September and St Kilda will be keen to get a comfortable win over the Kangaroos in round twenty one. If the Saints don’t win easily serious questions will be asked and massive doubt will cloud over them.

Now that the Saints have the apparent “the loss they had to have” I think they will bounce back firmly and get the points here.

My prediction is the Saints by 35 points so take the under 40 points bet at $2.80

Collingwood V Sydney Sunday at the MCG

Tip: Collingwood

This could end up being a very interesting game. Can the Swans de-rail the flying Pies? Sydney have beaten the Saints and just gone down to 2nd placed Geelong by 5 points, can they now knock off the 3rd spot?

It will be a massive effort for Sydney to win at the MCG which would give their finals hopes a boost going into the final round.

The key to the game will be the return of Josh Fraser to the Pies side. It will make it and even tougher task for the Swans one that will be too great for them in the end.

I like the odds of $2.20 with Sydney to win with a 24.5 point headstart at Sportsbet

Fremantle V Essendon at Subiaco Stadium

Tip: Essendon

Last weeks stars Paddy Ryder and lightning Courtenay Dempsey will both miss this match due to injuries they suffered in the 2 point win against the league leaders St Kilda last week. They were superb on Sunday and at time ran rings around the Saints. They will be expected to play the same football against the hapless Freo. The bookies have gone in cautious with this game with both teams paying $1.90

The Dockers will be trying to get a win for Luke McPharlin’s 150th game but will fall way short to the target Essendon will reach.

Take Essendon for the straight win at $1.90

The 2009/10 Hyundai A-League season is really beginning to heat up now as we move in to round 3. So far we have seen Gold Coast United and Sydney FC win both of their opening games and both teams are looking quite confident and playing some great football.

Personally, I am most interested in Friday nights’ soccer game between Adelaide United and Gold Coast United. Can the in-form Gold Coast United defeat the 2008/09 runners-up is the question that I would like to see answered.

So far, Perth Glory and North Queensland have not taken home any points from the first two games and will be looking to do so this round. The last thing that they want to do is fall behind so early in the season.

Shane Smeltz of Gold Coast United has been named as Player of the Week for round 2 after scoring 4 goals in the Gold Coast’s 5-0 thrashing of North Queensland. Smeltz is also leading the goal scoring by 3 goals with second place currently being held by four players with 2 goals.

Adama Traore is being touted as the player to watch as the left sided full back played stunningly in his debut for Gold Coast United last week. Electrifying is the term being used to describe the Ivorian full back.

Centrebet is the place to go for all your soccer bets. They have markets open for first goal scorer and on some markets how many red cards will be handed out in the game. Currently they have an offer going that doubles your first deposit up to a massive $200. Check their site out for more info and for the latest A-League odds.

My tips for round three are as follows.

Friday 21^st August @ 7.30pm

Adelaide United FC vs. Gold Coast United

Friday night will see Adelaide United FC host Gold Coast United at Hindmarsh Stadium, Adelaide. Set to be a close match between the in-form side and the 2008/09 aleague runners up. If this game sees a winner then I would pick Gold Coast, however with such closely matched sides I can only see a draw.

My Prediction – Draw with odds of $2.45 at CentreBet.com.au. Final Score 1-1

Saturday 22^nd August @ 3pm

Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Sydney FC

Saturday afternoon is bound to show us a close match between the Central Coast Mariners and Sydney FC. The match will kick off at 3pm local time at the Bluetongue Stadium on the Central Coast.

My Tip – Draw ($2.65 @ CentreBet.com.au). Final Score 2-2.

Saturday 22^nd August @ 5pm

North Queensland Fury vs. Melbourne Victory FC

The Melbourne Victory will be the more likely winner in this match-up, but even though they are the better side, I believe a draw is on the cards. The match will be played at Dairy Farmers Stadium.

My Tip – Draw ($1.83 @ CentreBet.com.au). Final Score 1-1.

Sunday 23^rd August @ 3pm

Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC

Brisbane is the obvious pick for me here. They are a much higher quality outfit in comparison to Wellington Phoenix and should take an easy win at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane.

My Tip – Brisbane Roar ($1.73 @ CentreBet.com.au) by 3 goals. Score 4-1.

Sunday 23^rd August @ 3pm

Perth Glory FC vs. Newcastle Jets FC

The final match of round three will see Perth Glory take on the Newcastle Jets at the Members Equity Stadium in Perth. Starting at 3pm on Sunday, it is my belief that the Perth Glory will take the win.

My Tip – Perth Glory ($2.05 @ CentreBet.com.au) by 1 goal. Final Score 2-1.