Sportsbet Blog

The end of round 22 has seen us move another week towards the end of the season without too many serious developments coming from the round.

The first game of round 22 saw the mighty Dragons’ juggernaut take a very nice win against the Penrith Panthers. The final score on Friday night was 6-25 in favour of St. George Illawarra.

The second game for Friday night saw the Cowboys face off against the Storm in a pretty ordinary match. By the end of the game, Melbourne had taken a comfortable enough lead to be satisfied with the win. The final score was 20-8.

Saturday afternoon was able to produce a great game for the Rabbitohs. Their competitors, Manly, could barely get anything right after the first 10 minutes of play and in the end the Rabbitohs were able to run away as 14 point winners, 22-36.

The game Saturday night between the Bulldogs and the Canberra raiders, although not pretty, turned out to be a very close match with only 3 points the difference in the final score. The Bulldogs were able to reign victorious at the end, 23-20.

There were 3 games played on Sunday afternoon, each producing varying results. The Warriors were disappointing in there defeat by the Titans with a final score of 10-30. Also, Parramatta fans were cheering while there team marched to an excellent 40-8 win over Newcastle. The Third game on Sunday afternoon saw the West Tigers jump into a top 8 position after a 10-17 win over the Roosters.

The final game of round 22 saw the Broncos grind out an ugly, 30-10 win over Cronulla.

My Round 23 tips are as follows.

Friday August 14^th @ 7.35pm

North Queensland Cowboys vs. Bulldogs

With neither side playing very well in round 22, I would expect this to be a rather close match. I personally believe that the Cowboys want it more and would like to see them take home the win.

My Tip – North Queensland Cowboys with odds of $1.80 @ CentreBet by less than 8 points.

Friday August 14^th @ 7.35pm

South Sydney vs. Gold Coast Titans

With both teams in this matchup in quality form, picking a clear winner is a difficult task. However, I would expect to see the Titans push on to the end and snatch a very close victory.

My Tip – Gold Coast Titans ($1.90 @ CentreBet) by 4-10 points.

Saturday August 15^th @ 5.30pm

Sydney Roosters vs. Manly Sea Eagles

I believe that after the insulting loss last week that Manly suffered, they will be determined to get up. If current form is anything to go by, then, in my opinion, the Roosters have very little chance of taking home the win here

My Tip – Manly ($1.24 @ CentreBet) by 15+ points.

Saturday August 15^th @ 7.30pm

Canberra Raiders vs. St. George Illawarra

I simply cannot tip against the Dragons at the moment as they have been playing some fantastic rugby. St. George Illawarra will undoubtedly take the win here in round twenty three.

My Tip – St. George Illawarra ($1.43 @ CentreBet) by 12+ points.

Saturday August 15^th @ 7.30pm

Parramatta Eels vs. New Zealand Warriors

Given the current disappointing form being showed by the Warriors I have no choice but to back the Eels on this occasion. Particularly after last weeks’ win, I would expect Parramatta to run out of the stadium as clear winners

My Tip – Parramatta Eels ($1.22 @ CentreBet) by 12+ points.

Sunday August 16^th @ 2pm

Cronulla Sharks vs. West Tigers

For this match up, I really could not go past the West Tigers. After the way that Cronulla took the loss last week, I would not expect them to produce anything special here.

My Tip – West Tigers ($1.33 @ CentreBet) by 12-18 points.

Sunday August 16^th @ 3pm

Brisbane Broncos vs. Penrith Panthers

I believe that this one has the potential to be one of the best games of the round. The Panthers suffered a defeat last week and will be looking to make up for it, meanwhile the Broncos are coming off of a tidy victory over Cronulla.

My Prediction – Brisbane Broncos ($1.50 @ CentreBet) by 6-12 points.

Monday August 17^th @ 7pm

Newcastle Knights vs. Melbourne Storm

Monday night can often produce some amazing games, but I do not believe that this matchup will be one of them. My prediction here is a night of reasonable quality, but nothing fancy, with the Storm getting up in the end.

My Tip – Melbourne Storm ($1.75 @ CentreBet) by 4-12.

Round 21 of the NRL championship saw some interesting matches to say the least.

St. George-Illawarra have proudly stood up and shown that they have what it takes to win the premiership after a tidy 14 point (26-12) victory over the Melbourne Storm. Unfortunately, it has been confirmed that Manu has broken his leg in 2 places.

The Cowboys managed to bring an end to the Titans home ground winning streak with a very nice 16 point win (18-34). To add injury to insult, Titans midfielder Brett Delaney tore a hamstring during the loss and will spend 4 – 6 weeks on the sidelines.

Brisbane were handed a massive (there biggest in the NRL) defeat against the Canberra Raiders. The final score ended at (56-0) and Brisbane has now conceded over 300 points in their last 8 games.

Newcastle’s top eight chances have grown slimmer after a 12 point loss (18-30) to the Sydney Roosters. Meanwhile, the Panthers and Warriors have shared the points after a thrilling 32-32 draw.

Also, the Eels quite easily managed to defeat the Sharks with a 30-0 win and the Bulldogs were able to recover from a poor start to take the points against the Rabbitohs (18-26).

Monday night saw the final game for round 21 and it was a thriller to say the least. In the end however, it was the Tigers who were able to get up over Manly for a 1 point victory (19-18).

My Round 22 tips are as follows.

Friday August 7^th @ 7.35pm

Melbourne Storm vs. North Queensland Cowboys

Although Melbourne took a loss last weekend, I believe that they will have no trouble getting up over the North Queensland Cowboys in this Friday night clash. The match is to be played at Olympic Park, Melbourne.

My Prediction – Melbourne Storm with odds of $1.47 @ CentreBet.

Friday August 7^th @ 7.35pm

Penrith Panthers vs. St. George-Illawarra

After the nice win in round 21 and the run of form I think it would foolish to go against St. George-Illawarra here. This is another game to be played on Friday night. Penrith will definitely have a challenge on their hands here. The match is to be played at CUA Stadium, Penrith

My Tip – St. George-Illawarra ($1.40 @ CentreBet) by 15+ points.

Saturday August 8^th @ 5.30pm

Manly Sea Eagles vs. South Sydney

I believe that after the narrow loss last week that Manly will be determined to get up here. If current form is anything to go by, then I really believe that the Rabbitohs have very little chance of winning this one at Brookvale Oval.

My Tip – Manly ($1.30 @ CentreBet) by 15+ points.

Saturday August 8^th @ 7.30pm

Bulldogs vs. Canberra Raiders

This match up to be played at ANZ Stadium will more than likely be one sided as the Bulldogs will be looking to finish the Raider off nice and early. I truly cannot see a Canberra victory in this one.

My Tip – Bulldogs ($1.30 @ CentreBet) by 12+ points.

Sunday August 9^th @ 2pm

New Zealand Warriors vs. Gold Coast Titans

In my opinion, this will probably be one of the closer matches in round 22. Although the Titans are the favourites, I would not be surprised if the Warriors were able to get up and win. That said I would bet against the Titans.

My Tip – Gold Coast Titans ($1.57 @ CentreBet) by 6-12 points.

Sunday August 9^th @ 2pm

Sydney Roosters vs. West Tigers

For this match up to be played at Sydney Football Stadium, i really could not go past the West Tigers. After the way that they were able to get up in last week’s thriller, I would not hesitate to tip them over the Roosters.

My Tip – West Tigers ($1.48 @ CentreBet) by 12-18 points.

Sunday August 9^th @ 3pm

Parramatta Eels vs. Newcastle Knights

With the possibility of a close game, this match that will be played in Parramatta on Sunday afternoon could very well turn into a thriller. The Eels had a good win last week; meanwhile, the Knights will be fighting hard for a chance of a top eight finish.

My Tip – Parramatta ($1.50 @ CentreBet) by 6-12 points.

Monday August 10^th @ 7pm

Brisbane Broncos vs. Cronulla Sharks

Quite frankly I would be surprised if Cronulla are even able to score in this game, let alone win. The Broncos are by the favourites to take the points from this came and I would not put money against it.  The game will be played on Monday Night at Suncorp Stadium.

My Tip – Brisbane Broncos ($1.24 @ CentreBet) by at least 15.

The Roosters got it all wrong last year – they finished 6th on the ladder but they had mis-timed their run, with their best football having been played in the first half of the season. This was not entirely their own fault with a couple of key injuries forcing younger players to be thrown into the fray at the business end of the season.

Having learned from this, Brad Fittler has been structuring their training sessions to help them maintain their skill level in pressure situations when fatigue becomes a factor. This along with the return to full fitness of Willie Mason and (hopefully) Anthony Minichello gives Roosters fans real hope that the team can crack a top four berth this year.

The Strength Is In The Pack

One look at the Sydney Roosters forwards sums up where much of the strength of this team lies. Willie Mason, Craig Fitzgibbon, Mark O’Meley, Nate Myles, Lopini Paea and Setamaita Sa – all representative footballers with plenty of experience.

Having these players around allows for the blooding of younger players on a mores selective basis where they are not being relied upon to be the number one guy.

As long as the pack stays fit, they will provide one of the best platforms of any team in the competition. It then becomes a matter of whether or not the backs have the ability to take advantage of the opportunities.

Lack Of Attacking Options In The Backs?

While the return of Anthony Minichello will definitely be an asset to the team, it won’t mask the fact that they are possibly one creative player short of a top class backline. For the Roosters to really have a chance this season, someone is going to have to emerge as the guy to partner Anasta in the halves – although Fittler has hinted that he may be playing him more at lock-forward this year, even though he was of the stand out performers in last years competition at five-eighth.

This will give young Ben Jones the opportunity to display the talents which many people from the Roosters have been so impressed with.

Player Movements

The big loss for the Roosters over the off-season was Anthony Tupou, who has headed down south to join The Sharks. There were other losses such as Amos Roberts and David Shillington, and there doesn’t seem to have been the same number of players arriving as replacements.

This could be a problem for The Roosters come Origin.

One arrival at the club that has created some interest is a Fijian guy by the name of Sisa Waqa, a rugby union convert. Apparently he was a bit of a try scoring machine in the other code, with one of his strengths being his ability in the air – something that will work nicely with the way the Roosters structure their plays close to the tryline.

Who Holds The Key?

I think Willie Mason is the guy that will be the factor that determines how big a contender the Roosters are this year. He is such an inspirational figure when he goes on a rampage that his team mates can’t help but be lifted to better performances.

Current Odds To Win The Premiership – $16

Crooksy

Having assessed the chances of Wayne Bennet’s new team in a previous post, I’ll now turn to the squad he has left behind after being at the helm for the last 532 games, The Brisbane Broncos.

Old Man Bennett…Gone

The first thing that springs to mind is there has to be some hangover from the departure of such a long serving coach. The club has known no other leader since it entered the competition 21 years ago, and the indelible mark he has left at the club is not something that can be replaced overnight.

Add to this the fact that along with Bennett, 13 of last years players have left the club and you are looking at a squad that barely resembles the 2008 version.

But if there is any club with the talent to overcome such a challenge it is the Broncos. Much to the disgust of their southern rivals, the Broncos have been the most consistent performers  in the NRL since they entered the competition, having missed the finals just three times in two decades.

For years New South Welshmen have begrudged the pool of players that Brisbane has had to choose from and this is proven by one look at the player changes to the roster – only 4 new players were signed to replace the 13 that left, meaning the club was confident enough that the current juniors and reserves can step up and fill any gaps where required.

Strength In The Backline

One of the four signings for this year was young superstar Israel Folau, and his combination with Justin Hodges in the centres is sure to cause much concern to opposing players. Add other class backs Lockyer, Karmichael Hunt and Peter Wallace and you have a team with plenty of attacking options.

It is in the forwards that opponents may find weak spots to exploit. The loss of Tonie Carroll has not received a huge amount of attention, but I think Brisbane fans will realise early on in the season how important he has been to this team over the last few years.

It will be left to Sam Thaiday to lift the forwards around him, and help fast track the development of some of the young big men who will be given opportunities at various stages throughout the year.

Much will depend on injuries for the Broncos this year – on paper they don’t not seem to have the depth needed to cover key positions if a plague of injuries occurs. Having said that the team from Brisbane is renowned for turning up talent at an alarming rate and I’m sure by the end of this year there will be at least one player from the squad who started the season as an unknown and finished as a household name.

The Broncos finished just outside the top 4 last year, and will be doing well to finish any higher than 2008. Somewhere just inside the top 8 is the most likely result.

Current Odds To WIn 2009 Premiership – $12.50

Crooksy

How Far Can Bennett Take The Dragons?

The obvious talking point with the St. George Illawarra Dragons this year is how much of an effect Wayne Bennet can have in his first season as coach. The general consensus over the last couple of years has been that nathan Brown just didn’t seem to command the respect that is required to get that extra 5-15% effort from the players at training and on the pitch which means the difference between a top four team and an also-ran.

This is understandable and is in no way a reflection on the character or coaching ability of Brown – his coaching began in 2003 with him taking charge of many of his ex-teamates. It was only natural that there were going to be difficulties in making the transition from player to coach at the same club at such a young age (he was just 29 when he took the reins).

And I’m sure everyone involved will tell you that it wasn’t really a factor. But they’d be kidding themselves, of course it was a factor. There are attitudes that just gradually seep into a team’s mentality over time without anyone realizing it is happening. He wasn’t able to properly assert his authority early on, and his tenure as coach had that as its foundation.

Wayne Bennett understands that, and this can be seen in the approach that he has taken from the outset. At the Bronco’s he had strong player leaders at all times, so his role was more as overseer rather than taskmaster. From all reports he has imposed himself in a very direct way from the start of his term at the Dragons, and is obviously attempting to instill a new culture into his squad of players from which he can build successful campaigns over the next couple of years.

There is also that intangible factor, an aura that comes as a result of Bennett’s success and experience. Always a talented squad, the Dragons may have had nagging doubts in the past about training methods, strategies etc. When you have one of the all time great coaches in charge, all doubts about those sort of things are immediately banished. Players know that they just have to focus their attentions on their skills, fitness and teamwork – Bennett will take care of the rest.

The Dragons have looked good so far in the pre-season, but it is just that…the pre-season. I do however find it interesting that the Dragons finished 7th last year, and are currently around the same in the betting. While it is probably too much of an ask for them to go all the way this year, signs are good that they are on the improve and will more than likely cause some upsets this year.

The Dragons face the Storm, Sharks and Broncos in the first 4 weeks of the competition – a very tough ask, and we will know at the end of that first month how good this team can be this season.

Current odds to win the premiership – $13.00

The NRL season kicks off in a little less than a month, and the bookies have pretty much gone with last years top eight to finish in around the same positions this year with the two noticeable exceptions being the Raiders and the Cowboys. After finishing the ’08 regular season in sixth position, the bookies have given the Raiders little chance of a top eight finish this year and are rated as being just good enough to avoid the wooden spoon

The Cowboys on the other hand have been installed as top six material, even after their 2008 season finished with them barely avoiding the wooden spoon as a result of a superior points difference. Much of this has to do with the return of Matt Bowen to the team, and that extra strike power at fullback will be enhanced by the addition of Willie Tonga to the centres. Thurston will have more options than he did last year, and this should see the team finish higher up the ladder.

Over the next couple of weeks I’ll take a look at the teams with the greatest chance this year and see how this year may be better or worse for them than ’08. Injuries and player movements are always a factor as new players settle in at teams, and new combinations are tested.

One things is for sure, just as at the start of last year everyone believes the teams to beat are the 2008 grand finalists the Storm and the Sea Eagles, with bookies even offering odds on these two against the field. Outside of the top two, betting is very even from three through seven, and 2009 is shaping up as quite an interesting season.

I’m a Bulldogs fan, so things can’t get any worse for us this year – I don’t think. The addition of Kimmorley should have a steadying influence on a team torn apart by personnel problems in 2008. A new coach and playmaker should settle things down for a good rebuilding season.

As always the rep season in the middle of the year will have an impact and teams that can come through this stretch in good position really set themselves up for a good run at the post season.

The State Of Origin this year will be a real battle for NSW as they try to avoid the ignominy of being the first team ever to lose four straight series. The problem for them is that there has never been a QLD team with such talent so they will be facing an enormous challenge.

If you have any tips for the upcoming season feel free to add them below.