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The North Queensland Cowboys will be looking to bounce back hard after their abysmal season in 2008 where they narrowly avoided the wooden spoon as a result of their superior defence compared to the Bulldogs. The return of players and personnel from injury and rival clubs has created a feeling of excitement up in Townsville that last year was just a minor glitch, and 2009 will see the Cowboys back in the top half of the ladder where they belong.

Returning Personnel

Matt Bowen has fought back from the knee injury that saw him play just six games last season. The club is being cautious with him at the moment, as they realise the value in having him for the whole season, and in particular the stretch leading into the finals. His return to the team will add extra spark to the backline.

Dally M coach oif the year 2008 Neil Henry is back from his successful 2 year stint at the Raiders. Henry previously worked under Graham Henry at North Queensland early this decade and is a popular figure up north. He is well regarded as being an excellent tactician and has been able to hone his skills at both club and Origin level having worked with Mal Meninga over the past few years to help establish the current dominance of the Cane Toads.

Billy Johnstone is back at the Cowboys to dish out his special brand of pain, which should see the squad re-emerge as one of the fittest in the competition

Off-Season Buys…Good & Bad?

Over the off-season the Cowboys have made some good signings in Willie Tonga and Antonio Kaufausi. While Tonga has been plagued by injuries in his past few seasons at the Bulldogs, all reports indicate his fitness is great and he should be back to his destructive best this year.

North Queensland have also signed Shannon Hegarty who will be attempting to prove wrong the pundits who slapped him with the Rugby League Week award for worst buy 2009.

Greatest Halfback In The World?

Many people believe this title belongs to Jonathan Thurston, and his form over the past few seasons probably justifies the tag. He is an integral part of this squad who have a atrocious record when he doesn’ play. They win 53% of their games when he plays, and just over 30% when he is sidelined.

This is a concern for the Cowboys, who have bought in Grant Rovelli to play alongside  Thurston in the halves and to perhaps slot into Thurston’s position if he is out for any reason.

Overall the Cowboys will be a much better team than last year. Their forwards are consistently good and should create plenty of chances for the likes of Thurston, Bowen and Tonga to carve holes through opposition backlines.

Bookies have them finishing just inside the eight, and it is one of those situations where it could go either way. They have the potential for a top four finish but they could also be hit by injuries and plummet to the bottom of the ladder.

Current Odds To Win The Premiership – $12

Crooksy

Having assessed the chances of Wayne Bennet’s new team in a previous post, I’ll now turn to the squad he has left behind after being at the helm for the last 532 games, The Brisbane Broncos.

Old Man Bennett…Gone

The first thing that springs to mind is there has to be some hangover from the departure of such a long serving coach. The club has known no other leader since it entered the competition 21 years ago, and the indelible mark he has left at the club is not something that can be replaced overnight.

Add to this the fact that along with Bennett, 13 of last years players have left the club and you are looking at a squad that barely resembles the 2008 version.

But if there is any club with the talent to overcome such a challenge it is the Broncos. Much to the disgust of their southern rivals, the Broncos have been the most consistent performers  in the NRL since they entered the competition, having missed the finals just three times in two decades.

For years New South Welshmen have begrudged the pool of players that Brisbane has had to choose from and this is proven by one look at the player changes to the roster – only 4 new players were signed to replace the 13 that left, meaning the club was confident enough that the current juniors and reserves can step up and fill any gaps where required.

Strength In The Backline

One of the four signings for this year was young superstar Israel Folau, and his combination with Justin Hodges in the centres is sure to cause much concern to opposing players. Add other class backs Lockyer, Karmichael Hunt and Peter Wallace and you have a team with plenty of attacking options.

It is in the forwards that opponents may find weak spots to exploit. The loss of Tonie Carroll has not received a huge amount of attention, but I think Brisbane fans will realise early on in the season how important he has been to this team over the last few years.

It will be left to Sam Thaiday to lift the forwards around him, and help fast track the development of some of the young big men who will be given opportunities at various stages throughout the year.

Much will depend on injuries for the Broncos this year – on paper they don’t not seem to have the depth needed to cover key positions if a plague of injuries occurs. Having said that the team from Brisbane is renowned for turning up talent at an alarming rate and I’m sure by the end of this year there will be at least one player from the squad who started the season as an unknown and finished as a household name.

The Broncos finished just outside the top 4 last year, and will be doing well to finish any higher than 2008. Somewhere just inside the top 8 is the most likely result.

Current Odds To WIn 2009 Premiership – $12.50

Crooksy

Trent Barrett Returns

I’ve spent the last few years living and working overseas during the Australian winter, and this often makes it tough to keep up to date with everything that happens on the domestic football scene – NRL, Super Rugby, AFL etc. Somehow in my time away the Cronulla Sharks have emerged as a top four team and it kind of took me back to the days of ET, Gavin Miller and Sparkles McGaw.

The thing about the Sharks over this period was that they had some great teams, but never managed to get their act together during the post-season. The perfect example of this was 1988 season where they finished as minor premiers but were bundled out with successive losses to Canterbury and Balmain.

And I was looking at the current Sharks team wondering if they’re going to experience the same problems. Personally, I think this may be the year they finally see some success. Now I’m not confident that they will win the tournament, but I think they have moved ahead of Melbourne, and should be installed as second favourites for the competition in behind Manly.

The thing is they could also crash and burn this season, having set their standards high after a third place finish on the ladder in 2008. The key to their results will be how the team adapts to losing Brett Kimmorley, and gaining Trent Barrett. Kimmorley tends to be a little underrated in the intangible aspects he brings to a side’s performance. Not only is he an excellent half back and playmaker, he is an exceptional leader and the kind of player that rallies others around him.

The good news for the Sharks is that they aren’t losing too much in this respect with the return of Barrett to the NRL. A good start to the season for Barrett may seem him rushed back in to the NSW team in an attempt to stop the QLD juggernaut. He was named Super League Player’s Player in ’07 so his game is obviously in good shape. It will all depend on how quickly he can re-adapt to the speed of the NRL.

Ricky Stuart has now been relieved of his Australian coaching duties, and you can guarantee that he will be striving to ensure his team perform well this season. They have made some good signings in Barret, Anthony Tupou and Reni Maitua – and I’m sure Stuart will be riding Maitua hard to make sure he has none of the off field incidents that have plagued his career so far.

The Sharks did cop a 40-16 thumping the other night in Darwin at the hands the Golf Coast Titans in wet, humid conditions. But that was a trial match…in Darwin. While the Titans may be a surprise package this season, I think you’ll see a different Sharks performance when they meet for their only match towards the end of the regular season.

The Sharks made the best possible start to their season in 2008 by beating both eventual grand finalists in the first two rounds of the competition. If they can emulate that start this year, they will set themselves up for a good season and a possible run at the title.

Current Odds To Win The Premiership – $9-11

How Far Can Bennett Take The Dragons?

The obvious talking point with the St. George Illawarra Dragons this year is how much of an effect Wayne Bennet can have in his first season as coach. The general consensus over the last couple of years has been that nathan Brown just didn’t seem to command the respect that is required to get that extra 5-15% effort from the players at training and on the pitch which means the difference between a top four team and an also-ran.

This is understandable and is in no way a reflection on the character or coaching ability of Brown – his coaching began in 2003 with him taking charge of many of his ex-teamates. It was only natural that there were going to be difficulties in making the transition from player to coach at the same club at such a young age (he was just 29 when he took the reins).

And I’m sure everyone involved will tell you that it wasn’t really a factor. But they’d be kidding themselves, of course it was a factor. There are attitudes that just gradually seep into a team’s mentality over time without anyone realizing it is happening. He wasn’t able to properly assert his authority early on, and his tenure as coach had that as its foundation.

Wayne Bennett understands that, and this can be seen in the approach that he has taken from the outset. At the Bronco’s he had strong player leaders at all times, so his role was more as overseer rather than taskmaster. From all reports he has imposed himself in a very direct way from the start of his term at the Dragons, and is obviously attempting to instill a new culture into his squad of players from which he can build successful campaigns over the next couple of years.

There is also that intangible factor, an aura that comes as a result of Bennett’s success and experience. Always a talented squad, the Dragons may have had nagging doubts in the past about training methods, strategies etc. When you have one of the all time great coaches in charge, all doubts about those sort of things are immediately banished. Players know that they just have to focus their attentions on their skills, fitness and teamwork – Bennett will take care of the rest.

The Dragons have looked good so far in the pre-season, but it is just that…the pre-season. I do however find it interesting that the Dragons finished 7th last year, and are currently around the same in the betting. While it is probably too much of an ask for them to go all the way this year, signs are good that they are on the improve and will more than likely cause some upsets this year.

The Dragons face the Storm, Sharks and Broncos in the first 4 weeks of the competition – a very tough ask, and we will know at the end of that first month how good this team can be this season.

Current odds to win the premiership – $13.00

The NRL season kicks off in a little less than a month, and the bookies have pretty much gone with last years top eight to finish in around the same positions this year with the two noticeable exceptions being the Raiders and the Cowboys. After finishing the ’08 regular season in sixth position, the bookies have given the Raiders little chance of a top eight finish this year and are rated as being just good enough to avoid the wooden spoon

The Cowboys on the other hand have been installed as top six material, even after their 2008 season finished with them barely avoiding the wooden spoon as a result of a superior points difference. Much of this has to do with the return of Matt Bowen to the team, and that extra strike power at fullback will be enhanced by the addition of Willie Tonga to the centres. Thurston will have more options than he did last year, and this should see the team finish higher up the ladder.

Over the next couple of weeks I’ll take a look at the teams with the greatest chance this year and see how this year may be better or worse for them than ’08. Injuries and player movements are always a factor as new players settle in at teams, and new combinations are tested.

One things is for sure, just as at the start of last year everyone believes the teams to beat are the 2008 grand finalists the Storm and the Sea Eagles, with bookies even offering odds on these two against the field. Outside of the top two, betting is very even from three through seven, and 2009 is shaping up as quite an interesting season.

I’m a Bulldogs fan, so things can’t get any worse for us this year – I don’t think. The addition of Kimmorley should have a steadying influence on a team torn apart by personnel problems in 2008. A new coach and playmaker should settle things down for a good rebuilding season.

As always the rep season in the middle of the year will have an impact and teams that can come through this stretch in good position really set themselves up for a good run at the post season.

The State Of Origin this year will be a real battle for NSW as they try to avoid the ignominy of being the first team ever to lose four straight series. The problem for them is that there has never been a QLD team with such talent so they will be facing an enormous challenge.

If you have any tips for the upcoming season feel free to add them below.