Sportsbet Blog

It’s finally here. After all our waiting, the “race that stops the nation” has arrived. The Group 1 Melbourne Cup at Flemington is like no other race in the world. Run over 2 miles (3200m), it boasts an astonishing 5.5 million dollars. A huge field of 24 makes tipping a winner as hard as it gets, but that doesn’t stop millions of Australians from taking a punt. Those millions will be stuffed into their local TABs today and tomorrow, so take the smart option and bet online with Betfair – where you’ll also get better odds.

Only champion horses win Melbourne Cups. Past champions include Kingston Rule, Might and Power, Rogan Josh and, of course, Makybe Diva, who won the race three times.

It takes a real champion to win this race twice in a row, and Viewed is looking to achieve that status this year. Winning the Cup last year with odds of $41, he is favourite this time at $5.60. It is hard to find a fault in his preparation this spring. He won the Caulfield Cup by two and a half lengths, and his final few hundred metres in Saturday’s Mackinnon Stakes proved that he was in career best form.

Alcopop had been equal favourite with Viewed until the latter’s great race in the Mackinnon. Alcopop is now at $5.70 with Betfair, but although his form is excellent, I’m not convinced. He has only raced 10 times, and only once at Group level. While winning form is always good form, and he may just be one of those freakish, unbeatable horses, I think $5.70 in a field of 24 is too short.

Another chance is Bart Cummings’ Roman Emperor. He raced beautifully in the Caulfield Cup, finishing second to Viewed. He is at $10 with Betfair, and if you like him, put a bet on now. Every man and his dog will be putting a bet on Cummings’ seemingly invincible horses, which will result in them being massive unders. If you do want to put a bet on Bart, you could look for some value in Allez Wonder, who is at $38 with Betfair (by far the best odds you’ll get for her).

The international horses have not fared well at all this Spring Carnival. Highly fancied Cima de Triomphe failed in both the Caulfield Cup and the Mackinnon Stakes, and did not even manage a place in this field. Irish raider Changingoftheguard is the most favoured of the European horses at $25. His form in Great Britain has been solid, but you can never tell whether a horse will race brilliant or flop when it has never raced in Australia before.

Australian horses take up only 7 of the 24 spots in the race; New Zealand being the dominant nation with 11. Daffodil ($19) and Master O’Reilly ($15.50), along with Roman Emperor, look the best of the Kiwis. This will be Master O’Reilly’s third Melbourne Cup, finishing 8^th and 4^th in the last two. His form this year has been excellent, and his last 200m in the Mackinnon Stakes sets him as a really good chance. The only query is whether or not he can actually win the race – he has not won anything since the 2007 Caulfield Cup.

Shocking has come from nowhere to become one of the favourites after his impressive win in the Lexus Stakes. He is now at $11.50, and his form over Group 2 and 3 races this spring has been fantastic. It’s very hard to knock his performances so far, except he will be up against some quality horses this time. He has also drawn a very wide barrier so things will be tough from there.

So, I need to pick a winner from a field of 24. It’s tough, but I’m going to go for Shocking, on the basis of his last win. Viewed will definitely be there over the last 200m, and don’t Master O’Reilly to be left behind when the sprinting begins. There is plenty of value here, and I can’t believe that Allez Wonder is at $38. Changingoftheguard is also good value.

MY TIPS

Shocking

Viewed

Master O’Reilly

Changingoftheguard

Allez Wonder

See our friends at Racing Bet Of The Day for more tips and info on the Melbourne Cup

There have been hundreds of world class Australian sporting feats over the last century. Here are my top five Australian sporting moments complete with video clips.

John Aloisi’s Penalty Kick

No World Cup appearances for the Socceroos for 32 years and John Aloisi changed it all with  massive penalty kick in 2005 against the classy Uruguayan team. They qualified for the World Cup that night in front of a packed house at Sydney’s ANZ stadium and what a game it was! Listen to Craig Foster loose it!

Shane Warne’s Ball of the Century
This was Shane Warne’s first ball in Test cricket in England and one he will always be remembered for. The game was the 1993 Ashes First Test at Old Trafford. Gatting had no idea what happened as the ball curved around him. He then asks umpire Kenny Palmer on his way out and received a little nod.

Leo Barry’s Grand Final Mark
Sydney Swans Leaping Leo Barry could well have rewritten history when he took this game saving mark deep in his defensive 50 with only seconds to go. Sydney were four points up when Dean Cox kicked long in one last ditched effort for the Eagles to win the 2005 AFL Grand Final. The ball went to a large pack of players where Leo Barry took a massive contested mark giving the Sydney the game and the Flag for that year.

Makybe Diva’s third straight Melbourne Cup
What seem to me to be an impossible task seemed easy in the end for Makybe Diva, winning three Melbourne Cups in succession. Makybe Diva was the clear winner over second place Xcellent and third On a Jeune. Listen to the classic line “A champion becomes a legend” from commentator Greg Miles.

Alex Jesaulenko’s Mark
It was the 1970 VFL Grand Final between Carlton and Collingwood at the MCG. The short but sweet cry of “Jesaulenko you beauty” was heard from commentator Mike Williamson after Jesaulenko took the most famous mark ever taken.