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Gerard Twomey IASbet Expert Racing Analysis
Caulfield sets alight the Spring carnival with three group Ones and an excellent 9 race card. IASbet expert racing analyst, Gerard Twomey previews all the action.

CAULFIELD GUINEAS

“This looks a quality Guineas. Toorak Toff is a genuine winning chance however I just feel that his price is a touch unders. There’s no doubting his class, but some of his rivals also have good credentials. One of those is Ilovethiscity who looked impressive wining over the mile last time and was very unlucky in the Golden Rose. Masquerader is the horse I quite like given his nice price. The blinkers go on which he’ll definitely appreciate, he’s drawn well and can run a bold race here.”

“I’ve got a big opinion of Rekindled Interest, he’s completely untapped.  In his last three races he’s run the best sectionals but has been unsuited by the tempo. He’s desperate to get out to the mile no and has the acceleration to finish hard in this race. Hopefully there’s a nice tempo which he needs.”

YALUMBA STAKES

“This really looks to be a race between the obvious favourites So You Think and Whobegotyou, who are both having their preliminary run before the Cox plate. Given the small field, we expect this to be an intriguing tactical battle. So You Think will land in front of Whobegotyou, the question is whether Whobe can outsprint him. He did win this event last year, but it was hardly a vintage field, and So You Think will present a greater challenge than Heart Of dreams last year. Hard to be too enthused about the other runners.”

TOORAK HANDICAP

“Bit surprised that More Joyous didn’t tackle the stars in the Yalumba, as I think that race at Weight For Age might have suited her better. She’s a bit vulnerable in this under handicap conditions, but is certainly a winning chance. Spacecraft is absolutely flying. He’s drawn awkwardly in barrier 13, but with some luck he’ll be hard to hold out. Interestingly his sectionals two starts ago at the Valley were better than Hay List. He’s going super. Drumbeats has been set for this race. He bypassed the Epsom last week and looks set to run a big race third up now.”

As the Spring Carnival draws to an end, there is one race day left that should not go unnoticed. There will be several top-class races at Sandown this Saturday, and the Group 2 Sandown Guineas, run over 1600m, is no exception. A handicapped race for 3 year olds, the Guineas has long been known as the race for those too weak to win at Flemington, but you can be sure that only quality horses make it into this race. Some quality horses to have won in the past include King Ivor, Binding, Schilling and Caymans.

This year’s horses include Kidnapped, who has won at Group level before. While he may not be quite to the standard of some other 3 year olds, like those who raced in the Victoria Derby, he is a classy gelding who might progress to Group 1 level next year. His form has been good; he won the Group 3 Inglis Carbine Club Stakes at Flemington on Derby Day. Kidnapped is favourite with Betfair at $2.75

Turf Express ($12.00) has also won at Flemington last start, in the listed Myer Spring Fashion Stakes last week. The Gai Waterhouse-trained colt is used to life in Sydney, but his win at Flemington proves he can race here as well. This will be his first Group race, and he has not won at this distance before, but he is still a chance.

Majestic Music ($5.00) is experienced for a three year old. The filly has won at Group level before, and has to be one of the favoured horses here. She wasn’t good enough in the Thousand Guineas, finishing seventh, but she backed up impressively with a win in the Lexus Hybrid Plate on Melbourne Cup Day. Her experience and form has to put her in the top three here.

I am going for Majestic Music here. Kidnapped has form at Group level, so I’ll put him here as well. Khas Kura ($4.40) has been racing well at a lower level, and for a little value, look at It’llbefantastic at $16.00

MY TIPS:

Majestic Music

Kidnapped

Khas Kura

It’llbefantastic

While the main attraction is over for this spring, Flemington’s Carnival finishes of with a bang with the one and a half million dollar Group 1 Emirates Stakes. It will also be family day, with lots of entertainment for adults and kids alike. The Emirates Stakes is run over 1600m, and it showcases some of the best handicap racing horses. Previous winners of the race include Better Loosen Up, Shaftesbury Avenue, Testa Rossa and Tears I Cry.

Favourite for this year’s race is 3 year old Cox Plate winner So You Think. He is clearly favourite with Betfair at $3.35, and even then they are probably going to be the best odds you’ll find for him. His form has been good – he won a Group 3 and finishing 5^th in the Caulfield Guineas before winning the Cox Plate. He has raced at this distance before; the only query is the track, and even then only if it rains.

Gold Salute is next best at $8.60. He has not raced for nearly a month, but his second in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap was very impressive. His form before that was also very good, although not at a standard similar to this. He has won on this track and over this distance before, though 1600m is at about the edge of his capacities, as he prefers races between 1200 and 1400m.

4 year old Eagle Falls ($15.50) has been impressive this spring. He started off racing in, and winning, some handicap races in August, then moved onto a few Group races, where he didn’t have much luck, but still impressed. He finally managed to win a Group race last weekend in the Group 2 Salinger Stakes on this track. Although his form is good, he has not won a race further than 1200m before.

Vigor ($11.50) was very unlucky to miss out on a spot in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday, but he is here to try and salvage something from his Spring Carnival. He won the Group 2 Makybe Diva Stakes back in September and finished 3^rd in the Caulfield Cup, but his owners and his trainer Danny O’Brien will be hoping he can win a Group 1 race, even if it is a few days later in the carnival than they had hoped.

This is a tough race to pick, and I will go with So You Think, though he is not as safe as his odds sound. Gold Salute and Vigor will be there, and Eagle Falls is some good value considering other competitors have him at as low as $10 – so make sure you get on at Betfair.

MY TIPS:

So You Think

Gold Salute

Vigor

Eagle Falls

It’s Ladies Day at Flemington tomorrow, and the crowds will be out to see the running of the Group 1 Crown Oaks for fillies. The Oaks is an all-female version of the Victorian Derby. It is run over 2500m, which is a big distance for 3 year old fillies, and the prizemoney totals $1,000,000. The Oaks has uncovered some fillies that go on to perform as mares. Famous winners of the Crown Oaks include Special Harmony, Serenade Rose, Miss Finland, Arapaho Miss and 2008 winner Samantha Miss.

Bart Cummings’ Faint Perfume ($1.80 with Betfair) is the clear favourite, and with her win in the Group 2 Wakeful Stakes last Saturday it’s easy to see why. The Wakeful Stakes is considered the best lead up race to the Oaks; 9 of the past 20 winners of the race have raced in the Stakes. Faint Perfume dominated the race, winning by 3 lengths.  The Oaks might turn out to be a consolation for Bart after the dismal effort of his horses in the Melbourne Cup (I hope you followed my advice and backed Shocking).

Faint Perfume’s nearest rival is right out at $10.50 with Betfair. Livia, who did not race in the Wakeful Stakes, is unexperienced compared to her rivals, finishing 4^th in her only attempt at Group level, but the signs have been promising. Again, the Oaks could prove consolation for Livia’s trainer, David Hayes, after his horse Changingoftheguard was scratched from the Melbourne Cup.

This will be Valdemoro’s ($11.50) first race at Group level, and although he is yet to win a race, don’t knock him just yet. He finished second in the Sportingbet Plate for fillies, where he beat Livia, Princess Rage and Zapurb, all racing in the Oaks. She may be inexperienced, but with an excellent pedigree (Her sire was champion Encosta de Lago), and an experienced trainer in Tony Vasil, she might upset the more seasoned runners.

Melito finished second in the Wakeful Stakes, but is right out at $19. The experienced Sydney runner is having a monster Spring Carnival (this will be her 7^th race), and we will soon see if she can end it on a good note.

It is very hard to go against Faint Perfume’s win in the Wakeful, but she provides little value for money. Silent Surround ($11.50 – good value) and Valdemoro are the next best, and Melito provides plenty of value. If you’re looking for value, Betfair is the one place to go.

MY TIPS:

Faint Perfume

Silent Surround

Valdemoro

Melito

It’s finally here. After all our waiting, the “race that stops the nation” has arrived. The Group 1 Melbourne Cup at Flemington is like no other race in the world. Run over 2 miles (3200m), it boasts an astonishing 5.5 million dollars. A huge field of 24 makes tipping a winner as hard as it gets, but that doesn’t stop millions of Australians from taking a punt. Those millions will be stuffed into their local TABs today and tomorrow, so take the smart option and bet online with Betfair – where you’ll also get better odds.

Only champion horses win Melbourne Cups. Past champions include Kingston Rule, Might and Power, Rogan Josh and, of course, Makybe Diva, who won the race three times.

It takes a real champion to win this race twice in a row, and Viewed is looking to achieve that status this year. Winning the Cup last year with odds of $41, he is favourite this time at $5.60. It is hard to find a fault in his preparation this spring. He won the Caulfield Cup by two and a half lengths, and his final few hundred metres in Saturday’s Mackinnon Stakes proved that he was in career best form.

Alcopop had been equal favourite with Viewed until the latter’s great race in the Mackinnon. Alcopop is now at $5.70 with Betfair, but although his form is excellent, I’m not convinced. He has only raced 10 times, and only once at Group level. While winning form is always good form, and he may just be one of those freakish, unbeatable horses, I think $5.70 in a field of 24 is too short.

Another chance is Bart Cummings’ Roman Emperor. He raced beautifully in the Caulfield Cup, finishing second to Viewed. He is at $10 with Betfair, and if you like him, put a bet on now. Every man and his dog will be putting a bet on Cummings’ seemingly invincible horses, which will result in them being massive unders. If you do want to put a bet on Bart, you could look for some value in Allez Wonder, who is at $38 with Betfair (by far the best odds you’ll get for her).

The international horses have not fared well at all this Spring Carnival. Highly fancied Cima de Triomphe failed in both the Caulfield Cup and the Mackinnon Stakes, and did not even manage a place in this field. Irish raider Changingoftheguard is the most favoured of the European horses at $25. His form in Great Britain has been solid, but you can never tell whether a horse will race brilliant or flop when it has never raced in Australia before.

Australian horses take up only 7 of the 24 spots in the race; New Zealand being the dominant nation with 11. Daffodil ($19) and Master O’Reilly ($15.50), along with Roman Emperor, look the best of the Kiwis. This will be Master O’Reilly’s third Melbourne Cup, finishing 8^th and 4^th in the last two. His form this year has been excellent, and his last 200m in the Mackinnon Stakes sets him as a really good chance. The only query is whether or not he can actually win the race – he has not won anything since the 2007 Caulfield Cup.

Shocking has come from nowhere to become one of the favourites after his impressive win in the Lexus Stakes. He is now at $11.50, and his form over Group 2 and 3 races this spring has been fantastic. It’s very hard to knock his performances so far, except he will be up against some quality horses this time. He has also drawn a very wide barrier so things will be tough from there.

So, I need to pick a winner from a field of 24. It’s tough, but I’m going to go for Shocking, on the basis of his last win. Viewed will definitely be there over the last 200m, and don’t Master O’Reilly to be left behind when the sprinting begins. There is plenty of value here, and I can’t believe that Allez Wonder is at $38. Changingoftheguard is also good value.

MY TIPS

Shocking

Viewed

Master O’Reilly

Changingoftheguard

Allez Wonder

See our friends at Racing Bet Of The Day for more tips and info on the Melbourne Cup

The Group 1 AAMI Victoria Derby is the premier staying event for 3 year olds on the Australian racing calendar. Run over 2500m, each colt and gelding has 55.5kg and each filly carries 53kg to ensure the best horse really does win. There is over 1 and a half million dollars in prizemoney and trophies to be shared between the top eight runners. It takes a champion three year old to win this race. Most winners are male; the last time a filly won this race was in 1923. Previous winners of the Derby have gone onto win Caulfield Cups Cox Plates and Melbourne Cups and generally have outstanding careers. Some champion winners of the race include Phar Lap, Dulcify and, in more recent times, Nothin’ Leica Dane, Helenus and Efficient.

It seems likely that this year’s field will provide more than one champion horse. Shamoline Warrior is the next big thing in the Mark Kavanagh stables, and he is being touted as better than Maldivian and Whobegotyou. He has already won a group race in Melbourne, the Group 3 Norman Robinson Stakes, beating his 3 year old contenders, including Onemorenomore, who is racing in the Derby. Shamoline Warrior is currently the favourite at $3.40 with Betfair.

I like Monaco Consul ($5.50). Racing in Sydney, he won the Group 1 Champion Stakes at Randwick earlier this month. He has not raced over this distance before, but neither have any of his competitors. The major query will be the track – he has not raced in Melbourne before. His previous form shows that he might be better suited to a heavy or slow track, so don’t be afraid to bet on him if we get some rain.

Rockferry is at $5.80; however he has not had the experience of some of his 3 year old rivals. His only win has come from a maiden at Geelong, though he finished 3^rd in a listed race there last start. I think he is too untried to warrant a bet, but he has shown promise and he is still a chance, though there are better horses in this race. The one major advantage he has over his competitors is the fact he has raced over 2200m, which might not be the distance required here, but he has that experience of racing at a distance longer than 2000m, which most of the others have not.

Viking Legend is finished 3^rd in the Group 2 AAMI Vase on Cox Plate Day, and is at $14.50 with Betfair here. He has a lot of experience, but he has looked his best over the 1800-2000m mark, so the journey up to 2500m may prove testing for him.

This will be a fantastic race to watch. I am going to go with Monaco Consul for the win, though it could easily be any one of 5 or 6 horses who could go home victorious. I think Monaco Consul and Onemorenomore ($11.50) will be up there, as will Viking Legend, who is good for some more value.

MY TIPS:

Monaco Consul

Shamoline Warrior

Onemorenomore

Viking Legend

While most important races on Derby Day are ran over longer distances, the length of the $500,000 Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes is perfect for attracting some of the best quality 3 year olds in Australian racing. The 1200 metres are run down the straight track, which showcases some of the best sprinters of the future. This race has a fantastic record for providing fantastic sprinters with one of their first Group 1 victories. Famous winners of this race include champion Encosta de Lago, Alinghi, Gold Edition and Weekend Hussler.

Phelan Ready ($12.50 with Betfair) is racing this year, quite possibly in career-worst form. He is yet to win a race this Spring Carnival, and apart from finishing second in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes, he been very disappointing this spring. He finished 7^th in a Group 2 last start; he was a champion racer as a two year old, but there are serious doubts about him now he is a three year old. However, saying that, he is such a quality horse that it would be very unwise to discount him as a chance.

Shellscrape ($11.00) has had a fantastic Spring Carnival in Sydney so far. He won the Group 2 Roman Consul last start at Randwick, and also won another Group 3 earlier in the Carnival. His one attempt at a Group 1, The Golden Rose, resulted in a 5^th against some very good quality opponents. He should perform better in this race considering it will be at his preferred distance, 1200m. It will be interesting to see how he handles racing in Melbourne, something other Sydney runners have struggled at.

My favourite horse, More Than Great ($11), let me down last start with a 5^th in the Caulfield Sprint, when I backed him to win. I won’t be doing the same thing again this week, but he is still a chance. That 5^th was the only time he had not made the top three in a race, and he has won twice over this distance before. This is a step up in class for him, and will be his first Group 1, but he might just steal a win against his more experienced 3 year old rivals.

Filly Irish Lights is coming off a win in the Thousand Guineas earlier this month. She has not lost a race this carnival and is probably the most in-form horse in the race. However, all her form has come from racing fillies, so this race against colts and geldings will prove a test for her. Irish Lights will head onto the Crown Oaks after this race, probably irrespectively of where she finishes. She is favourite here at $6.80.

I think Shellscrape will win here, his form being very good. Wanted, who finished second in the Schillaci Stakes, has a big chance, as does Irish Lights. For a little value, I’m going with More than Great.

MY TIPS:

Shellscrape

Wanted

Irish Lights

More Than Great

The Group 1 Myer Classic is the most prestigious all female race in the Spring Carnival as well as being the only opportunity for fillies to race against mares. The mile-long event is weight-for-age, so fillies have a better chance racing against the more experienced mares. There is $500,000 in prizemoney on offer as well as the honour of a Group 1 victory. The fillies in the race will be looking towards the Group 1 Crown Oaks on Thursday 5^th November, while the mares may go onto the Emirates Stakes or end their carnival after this race. Past winners of this race include Bonanova, Miss Potential and Divine Madonna.

Typhoon Tracy has been the mare of the Spring Carnival, despite the fact she has only one race. She is easily favourite with Betfair here at $2.25.  Her win last start in the Group 2 Tristarc Stakes was impressive, over some of her rivals here. However, those odds are just a little short for me at the moment.

Hot Danish ($4.40) finished second to Typhoon Tracy in the Tristarc Stakes. She has an excellent record, winning 11 of her 20 starts. It will be interesting to see how she handles the distance. She has won two races over 1600m before, but neither of them were a Group 1 and, importantly, they were both well over 2 years ago.

Lady Lynette is some good value at $14.00. She has won two races so far this spring, albeit at a less classy level than this. She has been racing well against mares and will not need to do much more than that. Her biggest advantage over her competition in this race is that she has won her previous two starts over 1600m, which has to count for something.

Gold Water ($10.00) was disappointing in the Tristarc Stakes, finishing ninth. His effort at Flemington before that was more promising, a second in the Rose of Kingston Stakes. I am not prepared to back him like I did last time, but the Gai Waterhouse factor warrants him a chance.

There are several other horses with a good chance, but unfortunately I can’t fit them all in. I think Typhoon Tracy will win, although it might not be worth the risk at $2.25. Hot Danish and Neroli will be there. Lady Lynette provides some value, but watch out for Gold Water and Zarita.

MY TIPS:

Typhoon Tracy

Hot Danish

Neroli

Lady Lynette

The $750,000 Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes is widely renowned for its status as the lead-up race to the Melbourne Cup. Many horses have raced in the 2000m Stakes before making the tough Melbourne Cup run, after which they most definitely deserve a break.. It is rather ironic to note that the horses who do well in the Melbourne Cup do not always perform here – last year’s Cup winner, Viewed, finished last in this race before going on to win the big one. Previous winners of this race include Empire Rose, Let’s Elope, Rogan Josh and Lonhro.

Like every year, this Mackinnon Stakes is very open, with almost all of the 13 racers considered a chance. The favourite is Rangirangdoo ($3.60 with Betfair), who has had an excellent Spring Carnival, topped off by winning the Group 2 Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley last start. He is not headed for the Melbourne Cup, so this might be his “Grand Final” or perhaps the Sandown Guineas.

Viewed, however, will race in the Melbourne Cup, where he is equal favourite. Here he is at odds of $9. There will be a lot of eyes on him no matter where he finishes, seeing how he handles the track and whether he is up to the form that saw him win the Cup last year.

7 year-old Scenic Shot ($9.20) raced pretty well in the Cox Plate last week, finishing 5^th. The veteran of 53 races had a shaky start to the Spring Carnival, finishing last and 11^th in his first two races. However, after hitting some form in the Turnbull Stakes, he looks like he is almost at his best.

There has been a lot of controversy over Vigor’s Melbourne Cup bid. Despite a top-three finish in the Caulfield Cup, he still remains 28^th in the ballot order, and only 24 horses will make the final cut. The winner of this race automatically qualifies for the Melbourne Cup, but Vigor is not even certain to race here. Vigor is at $7.60, but I’m not getting on until I’m sure he’s racing.

This is a very tough race to call, and I’m to go for Zipping ($8.20) on the basis of his Cox Plate form. Rangirangdoo’s form has been too hard to ignore, and I am going with Viewed for third. For some value look at Racing to Win ($16.50) or, if you’re a real gambler, maybe country racer Mandela at $85.00.

MY TIPS:

Zipping

Rangirangdoo

Viewed

Racing to Win

Formerly known as the Moonee Valley Cup, the Cathay Pacific Airways Cup is the only major long distance event held at Moonee Valley during the Spring Carnival. Because of this it is an important race for stayers, despite its Group 2 status. This race is not considered a great guide to any race in particular. However, it takes a good horse to win the race, and horses who have done well in this race have performed well in other events such as the Melbourne Cup, Sandown Classic and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Previous winners of the race include Kingston Rule, Court of Honour and Zipping.

This is considered an open race, with favourite Hissing Sid at $3.90 with Betfair. He is favourite despite the fact that he has not won a race in his 5 starts since the Warnambool Cup in May, and has only placed in one of them. He finished 3^rd in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes, which has seen him into favouritism here, but there are still many queries hanging above his head.

At $5.40 is Lodge the Deeds, whose form in Sydney has been fantastic. He finished second in the Group 1 Metropolitan behind Cox Plate fancy Speed Gifted, and has not been out of the top three in a race since the start of August. He has not won over 2000m, but his effort in the 2400m Metropolitan showed that he could run the distance. The only other query will be the track, as this will be his first race at the Valley.

Ista Kareem is at $7.40. The 9 year old veteran showed a glimpse of brilliance when he won the Group 1 Sydney Cup this year, but it’s starting to like he is past his use-by date. He did not make the first 11 in either of his Group attempts this spring, and his best effort was a 4^th in a listed race. However, that doesn’t mean Ista Kareem can’t get up here; it is never wise to discard a horse like him without thought.

I think Lodge the Deeds’ form in Sydney is too good to be ignored here. The $5.40 is pretty good value, with punters a little unsure about him, so get those odds while you can. Hissing Sid’s effort in the Herbert Power Stakes also gets him a spot in my top 4. Miss Darcey ($6.80) rounds out the top three, and I’m also going for Sand Hawk ($19.50) because he has won over this distance and track before, and he also has champion jockey Damien Oliver on board.

MY TIPS:

Lodge the Deeds

Hissing Sid

Miss Darcey

Sand Hawk