Sportsbet Blog

Formerly known as the Moonee Valley Cup, the Cathay Pacific Airways Cup is the only major long distance event held at Moonee Valley during the Spring Carnival. Because of this it is an important race for stayers, despite its Group 2 status. This race is not considered a great guide to any race in particular. However, it takes a good horse to win the race, and horses who have done well in this race have performed well in other events such as the Melbourne Cup, Sandown Classic and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Previous winners of the race include Kingston Rule, Court of Honour and Zipping.

This is considered an open race, with favourite Hissing Sid at $3.90 with Betfair. He is favourite despite the fact that he has not won a race in his 5 starts since the Warnambool Cup in May, and has only placed in one of them. He finished 3^rd in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes, which has seen him into favouritism here, but there are still many queries hanging above his head.

At $5.40 is Lodge the Deeds, whose form in Sydney has been fantastic. He finished second in the Group 1 Metropolitan behind Cox Plate fancy Speed Gifted, and has not been out of the top three in a race since the start of August. He has not won over 2000m, but his effort in the 2400m Metropolitan showed that he could run the distance. The only other query will be the track, as this will be his first race at the Valley.

Ista Kareem is at $7.40. The 9 year old veteran showed a glimpse of brilliance when he won the Group 1 Sydney Cup this year, but it’s starting to like he is past his use-by date. He did not make the first 11 in either of his Group attempts this spring, and his best effort was a 4^th in a listed race. However, that doesn’t mean Ista Kareem can’t get up here; it is never wise to discard a horse like him without thought.

I think Lodge the Deeds’ form in Sydney is too good to be ignored here. The $5.40 is pretty good value, with punters a little unsure about him, so get those odds while you can. Hissing Sid’s effort in the Herbert Power Stakes also gets him a spot in my top 4. Miss Darcey ($6.80) rounds out the top three, and I’m also going for Sand Hawk ($19.50) because he has won over this distance and track before, and he also has champion jockey Damien Oliver on board.

MY TIPS:

Lodge the Deeds

Hissing Sid

Miss Darcey

Sand Hawk

The Group 2 AAMI Vase is another tough Group 2 race that makes up Cox Plate Day. All 8 horses racing will be guaranteed a share in $200,000 for the 2040m race specifically for 3 year olds. This race is for horses heading for the Victorian Derby next week, and several winners of this race have gone on to win the Derby. Famous winners of the AAMI Vase include Helenus, Efficient and Whobegotyou.

One horse that is favoured for the Victorian Derby is Extra Zero, who is $3.40 for this race with Betfair. He has only won once, in a listed race earlier this year, but he has shown a lot of promise. However his odds seem too short here considering he has not won a race this Spring Carnival.

Carrara was very impressive in the Caulfield Guineas, finishing second to Starspangledbanner. He has an excellent record racing in Queensland and his performance in the Guineas shows that he can race in Victoria as well.  He is at $5.10, and has the best form of any horse in this race.

Viking Legend is at $5.00 with Betfair, and the 3 year old is also in good form this spring. He finished 3^rd in the Group 3 Champion Stakes. He has drawn a good barrier and with up and coming jockey Blake Shinn on board he is an excellent chance.

Danny O’Brien’s colt Spacecraft has won two of his three starts, and this will be his first Group race. It is always hard to tell how inexperienced horses will perform when put to tests like this, but the AAMI Vase is a great race for Spacecraft to start his Group racing career in. Spacecraft is $7.40 with Betfair.

Also at $7.40 is Miss With Attitude (ridden by one “miss with attitude,” Clare Lindop), who will be looking towards the Crown Oaks. She finished 6^th in the Caulfield Guineas but her form before that was good, coming second in the Group 2 Bill Stutt Stakes.

This is a tough race to call, but I’m going for Carrara on the back of his Guineas form. I also thing Extra Zero is a top quality horse and will race well, as will Viking Legend. Some roughies to look at are Miss With Attitude and Spacecraft.

MY TIPS:

Carrara

Extra Zero

Viking Legend

Spacecraft

The Group 2 Schweppes Stakes is one of the premier short to middle distance races in the country. It may not have the prestige of Group 1 races such as the Manikato Stakes, but there is still $200,000 in prizemoney, and the race attracts big name sprinters each year. Famous winners of this race include Our Egyptian Raine, Miss Andretti and Lucky Secret. Several winners of this race have gone on to win the Salinger Stakes on Victoria Derby Day.

It comes as no surprise that Apache Cat is racing here. The 7 year old veteran of 40 starts can always be found at big short distance races throughout Victoria and New South Wales. The Schillaci Stakes is always considered a good guide as to how horses will race in the Schweppes Stakes and, after finishing 2^nd in the Schillaci, Apache Cat is one of the favoured horses here ($3.80) and will challenge Lucky Secret for favouritism.

As mentioned earlier, Lucky Secret won this race last year, and now he’s back for more. Usually when a horse attempts a Group 2 he has won earlier it shows that he has progressed little in the year that has passed. However, this is not the case with Lucky Secret. He has won more races and performed well even in Group 1 races. His effort in the Manikato Stakes was disappointing, but his win in the Schillaci Stakes has seen him jump to favouritism here with Betfair at $3.75

Unlike Apache Cat and Lucky Secret, Danleigh performed in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes, winning the race. The 6 year old gelding is able to go a bit further than some of the other horses in this race, and this might show in the last few hundred metres. Danleigh is currently at $11.00 with Betfair.

Mic Mac is at $7.50, the closest in betting to Apache Cat and Lucky Secret. He has had a long carnival, racing since the start of August, and has already secured two wins, including the Group 2 Memsie Stakes. His performance in the Manikato Stakes was ok, finishing 5^th, but he can, and should, do better here.

This will be a great race, with so many good horses racing. I think Mic Mac might be a surprise winner, having only lost 3 of his 10 races. Lucky Secret and Apache Cat will be up there, and both of them could easily win. For a little value, Danleigh is at $11.00 despite beating many of these horses in the Manikato Stakes.

MY TIPS:

Mic Mac

Lucky Secret

Apache Cat

Danleigh

While the main event this weekend is undisputedly the Caulfield Cup, the race following it is also very prestigious. The Group 2 Caulfield Sprint, as the name suggests, is a short-distance race, and is dominated by sprinters.

Favouritism lies with First Command, who is $3.80 with Betfair. He is in good form, finishing second in his last race, the Group 2 Gilgai Stakes, and winning before that. He is up against some tough competition this time, but he is definitely capable of winning this race.

A horse that I mention a lot in this column, (Indeed, it could be said I have a “horse-crush” on him) is More Than Great. This 3 year is an exciting young horse who has shown plenty of promise this spring. He has won two of his past four, and placed in the other two, so there has never been a better time for him to contest this race against some strong horses. More Than Great is $9.00 with Betfair.

Phelan Ready is a position that he is not used to, the one where he is not the one to beat. At $8.00, there are a few horses more favoured than him. He finished second in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes, but his effort in the Golden Rose was dismal. He’s got a bit of work to do to get himself into the same form he was in this April when he won the Golden Slipper.

At $6.50 is Secret Flyer, the 6 year old gelding. Despite finishing a below par 7^th in the Manikato Stakes, he has been in good form, and he is a good chance to take out this race. Trained by Mark Young, he has an excellent overall record, and has won one race and placed in another this spring.

Also at $6.50 is Eagle Falls, trained by David Hayes. Before an uncharacteristic 5^th in the Gilgai Stakes, Eagle Falls had won four in a row. While these races may not have been of the highest calibre, they are still wins, and an in-form horse is always better than an out of form horse.

I have seen so much promise from More Than Great, and I am hoping he can bring about a win for me today. First Command is also a good chance, as is Eagle Falls. For some value, I am going with Royal Ida at $26.00, but don’t forget to include Phelan Ready in your considerations.

MY TIPS:

More Than Great

First Command

Eagle Falls

Royal Ida

The first of two Group 2 races at Caulfield this week is the Tristarc Stakes, run over 1400m. The total prizemoney is $180,000, and while this might not rival that of the Caulfield Cup, it is still a lot. This race is usually considered a good form guide for the Myer Classic, which will be held this year at Flemington on Victoria Derby Day. Past winners of this race include Infinite Grace and Mimi Lebrock.

Typhoon Tracy has been one of the horses of the spring, and is $3.60 with Betfair for this race. She has raced 3 times this spring, for 1 win and 1 place. She underperformed in her last race, the Underwood Stakes, finishing 8^th, but you can expect better from her this time.

The favourite is Hot Danish, who is no stranger to the Spring Carnival. She finished fifth in her last race, but won the Group 3 Research Stakes before that, adding to her claim as one of Australia’s best mares. Hot Danish is $2.80 with Betfair.

At $8.00 is Gold Water, who finished second in the Group 2 Rose of Kingston Stakes coming off a spell. Gai Waterhouse only ever brings her best horses to Melbourne for the Spring Carnival, and it’s clear that she’s confident about this mare.

The Peter Snowdon trained Neroli, who finished 4^th in the Rose of Kingston Stakes (when she was favourite), is at $5.50. She has been popular in Fantasy Stables, and many people will be hoping she can perform this week to get some points on the board.

Chinchilla Rose is something of veteran in races like these, although only being 5 years old. The mare has not been in the best form, finishing 6^th in a listed race after a 3 month spell. Chinchilla Rose is at $26.00 with Betfair.

I think Gold Water could easily pull off an upset here. I respect Gai Waterhouse a lot, and I think Gold Water will win here. Hot Danish and Typhoon Tracy are the other two I like, and Japanese mare Jolie’s Shinju is good value at $18.00.

MY TIPS:

Gold Water

Hot Danish

Typhoon Tracy

Jolie’s Shinju

The biggest Group 2 race this week is the $200,000 Schillaci Stakes at Caulfield. Run over 1000m, it’s a premier race for sprinters. Some great sprinters have won this race, such as Mahogany, Miss Andretti and Gold Edition. The Stakes is considered a good form guide for several sprint races later in the carnival including the Schweppes Stakes on Cox Plate Day.

Some of the horses in this year’s Stakes are already great, including star gelding Apache Cat. He surprisingly disappointed in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes, but he is a much better horse than that result suggests. He also has the advantage of 5 wins on this track before. Apache Cat is currently favourite with Betfair at $4.80, some pretty juicy odds.

Lucky Secret is at $5.10. He also disappointed in the Manikato Stakes, finishing 9^th, but some quality middle distances runners such as Phelan Ready were also racing, making it hard for a sprinter. The 6 year old has an incredible record, winning 12 of his 20 starts.

This will be 3 year old Paprika’s ($6.20) first Group race, after beginning a promising career in Queensland. The filly has raced five times for four wins and a second, and now is definitely the best time for her to step her racing up to Group level. However she has not raced in Victoria yet, and if rain brings about a heavy track she may be in a bit of trouble.

Turffontein ($17.50) was another horse who failed to impress in the Manikato Stakes, but his win in the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes last month was as good as any. The Anthony Cummings trained 6 year old has not had much luck in the past, but his connections will be hoping that this is his year.

Wanted has been popular with the punters and is now at $5.80. He is very experienced at Group level for a three year old and, unlike others in this race, performed well in the Manikato Stakes, finishing fourth.

Sprint races are always open; anyone can win. However, I think it will be closely contested between Apache Cat and Lucky Secret for first place. I am not sure who will win, so stick with Apache Cat ($4.80 isn’t bad odds at all). My third tip is Paprika on the basis of her recent form. Turffontein will also provide a little value.

My Tips:

Apache Cat

Lucky Secret

Paprika

Turffontein

While all the Group 1 races may be at Caulfield this week, Rosehill still has three top class Group 2s. The 1500m Shannon Stakes is a premier race for three year olds and upwards, with a $150,000 prize pool, and features some very good racers.

Rangirangdoo ($3.70 with Betfair) has been nominated for the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup. He has been in great form of late, although this will be his first real test. He won the Group 3 Tramway Handicap, which elevated him into view for the major races in Melbourne this spring. This race may prove whether he is worth a place as a contender or not.

Strat’s Flyer ($4.80) finished second to Rangirangdoo in the Tramway Handicap, and also looks a good racer. However, he has not had a great deal of experience at Group level, and this race will probably decide whether he continues to aim towards the Epsom Handicap or continue at a smaller level.

Drumbeats ($7.00) may be inexperienced, but he has already proved himself to be a handy horse. He has only won once but has placed in all of his other 4 starts, including a second place in the Group 2 Roman Consul Stakes.

One of the younger horses in the race, four year old O’Lonhro ($2.70), has the best recent Group record and deserves to start favourite. He won the Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes two weeks ago and will either go on to the Epsom Handicap in Sydney or the Caulfield Cup/Cox Plate in Melbourne.

It’s a very small field for a Group race, so anyone is a chance, even $201.00 shot Yallingup. He is in some horrible form, but he showed a flash of brilliance when he won the Group 3 Frank Packer Plate at Randwick in April this year.

O’Lonhro is the standout horse in this race and should win comfortably. There are some other good horses like Drumbeats, Strat’s Flyer and Rangirangdoo that will challenge, but they aren’t quite up with him in class. For a bit of value, I’m going with Ivory Pegasus ($10.00), who hasn’t had much luck with Group races but is in some good form.

My Tips:

O’Lonhro

Rangirangdoo

Drumbeats

Ivory Pegasus

Saturday’s Group 2 Theo Marks Stakes, run over 1400m, is one of the more even races this weekend. Very few in the field of 11 are not legitimate chances, and there is not one clear favourite. The race is worth a nice $200,000, but most horses will be looking further ahead to the Group 1 Epsom Handicap to be held at Randwick on October 3.

Triple Honour, who finished third in last week’s Chelmsford Stakes, is one of the three horses battling for favouritism with Betfair, and is currently winning the race at $4.40. The five year old is a veteran of Group races, but his record in them is less than wonderful.

Another short priced horse is Racing to Win ($5.00), who has overcome past injuries to be at his peak for this spring. The gelding had a reasonable first-up race in the Warwick Stakes, but is now looking to improve and move on to the Epsom Handicap or the Cox Plate.

There isn’t a great deal of value to be found in this small field, but it’s worth having a look at Mentality, who is at $13.00. He was fantastic when he won the Premiere Stakes last month, but took a step backwards when he finished ninth in the Group 3 Tramway Handicap. However, if he can regain some form, he should prove some very good value.

I was a little shocked to see Mr Baritone ($6.50) in the top three in the Warwick Stakes a few weeks ago; I had though he was well past his prime. However, he looks set to have another (possibly his last) crack at the Sydney Spring Carnival, and is at $6.50 here. He still has a little way to go before convincing me, but he is one to watch for in this race.

This will be the first race for Rock Kingdom, who is nominated for both the Cox Plate and Epsom Handicap, since coming 9^th in the AJC Australian Derby in April. He has had some excellent form this autumn though, and could easily win this race.

I think Rock Kingdom will win this race, but Triple Honour and Racing to Win will not be far behind him. If you’re looking for a little value, Mentality is the way to go. With such an even field, you’re going to need a pretty open box trifecta.

My Tips:

Rock Kingdom

Triple Honour

Racing to Win

Mentality

Randwick’s Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes is a big name puller this week, with several big names. The $150,000 race has a reasonably small field, with only 10 runners after Dreamscape was scratched.

Several big names have won the Chelmsford Stakes, including Lonhro, Pasta Express and last year’s winner, Gallant Tess. The Chelmsford is traditionally a good lead up race to the Group 1 George Main Stakes at Randwick in three weeks time.

O’Lonhro ($2.80 with Betfair) will start as the favourite, and looking at his recent form it is easy to see why. He impressed in his first taste of group racing two weeks ago, where he narrowly lost to Trusting in the Warwick Stakes. His sire, the great Lonhro, won this race twice, so the race may become a bit of a family favourite.

Not too far behind him is Court Command with odds of  $4.50. He finished 5^th in the Warwick Stakes, but won before that. He will be looking to win his first group race since May this year, where he beat a field of 17 to win the Group 3 Darley BTC Sprint.

Despite the small field, there has been no love for Moody Avenue, who is at $251. The 4 year old made his debut late compared to the others, and won his first race three weeks ago, albeit a maiden. He has not had experience racing against horses of the calibre of this field, and I feel like entering in the Chelmsford Stakes in like jumping in at the deep end before you’ve learnt to swim.

Another one at short odds is Triple Honour ($6). Despite not winning since last year’s Premiere Stakes, he is considered a good chance.  He is at short odds considering his trainer is not anticipated a win. Triple Honour could definitely finish in the top three, but those odds are not looking juicy enough for me yet.

Trainer Joseph Pride has two horses in this race, Vision and Power ($7) and Miss Marielle ($10). They are both good chances, although Miss Marielle has not run in a group race for some time. Vision and Power disappointed in the Warwick Stakes but has an excellent record before then.

I think that although O’Lonhro is still inexperienced, he has shown that he can fight out the group races and I think the Chelmsford will become his first group win. I think Vision and Power and Court Command are the next two in the race, and my other tip will go to the Anthony Cummings trained Miss Darcey ($21).

My tips:

1st. O’Lonhro

2nd. Vision and Power

3rd. Court Command

4th. Miss Darcey

The Group 2 Danehill Stakes, run over 1200m, is an exciting part of 3 year old racing this spring. The future for Australian racing looks bright, with names like Manhattan Rain, Delago Bolt and Rostova sure to feature in years to come.  The race has usually been won by a handy three year old, such as Tan Tat de Lago and last year’s winner, Aichi, rather than a big name horse.

Filly Rostova is also racing, and will be trying to improve on a disappointing sixth at Caulfield a few races ago. She has won one Group 2 before, but has not placed in her two starts over this distance. She is right out to around $11 with Betfair, and worth a dip.

Black Caviar is untried at group level, but has won all of his three races, including the listed Arrow Training Services Plate two weeks ago, over filly Miraculous Miss, who is also racing in the Danehill Stakes. He is currently at very short odds at $1.75, and deserves to be, but there are other horses that could snatch the win from him.

One of these is Manhattan Rain. The second favourite at $8.00, he has raced in three Group 1’s for a first and two thirds, and has hardly put a foot wrong it his lead up. The only possible worry could be is that he has not raced in Melbourne before, but even that is minor.

I’m hoping Delago Bolt can shake off some recent bad form and return to how he was racing at the start of this year, with a win in the Group 2 Black Opal Stakes. He’s at a tentative $17, but if you’re a risk-taker, might be worth an each-way bet for a nice return.

Gelding Tollesprit may be inexperienced compared to other horses in the race, but you can hardly fault his racing so far. He finished second in his first group race last week, and looks set for bigger things in the future.

Now for my tips. I’m playing safe and going with Black Caviar, but it’s an open race from there. Manhattan Rain’s form is too good to ignore, and I also like Rarefied, winner of the Up and Coming Stakes. Another one to put into your box trifecta, and a horse I’m really excited about is Tollesprit.

Betfair is the play to go for betting on horse racing this spring, they have 20% better odds than the tote and they also let you place lay bets on horses that you think wont win the race!

My Tips:

1st. Black Caviar

2nd. Manhattan Rain

3rd. Rarefied

4th. Tollesprit