Sportsbet Blog

Betting for the Group 1 William Reid Stakes has been turned on its head following the scratching of hot favourite Black Caviar reports IASbet John Hartnett.

“It’s a wide open race now without the champion filly,” said Hartnett. “The three place getters of the Lightning Stakes are now the top three in the market in Nicconi ($5.50 into $3.20), Wanted ($6.50 into $3.40), and Shellscrape ($11.00 into $4.50).”

“I think Shellscrape finds his right race here. He hasn’t raced at the Valley, although he is very suited to the 1200m and he likes the cut out of the ground.”

IASbet has a range of head to head markets available on the William Reid Stakes, including Nicconi ($1.80) vs Wanted ($1.90), Shellscrape ($1.70) vs Light Fantastic ($2.15), Turffontein ($1.70) vs Sniper’s Bullet ($2.15), and Master O’Reilly ($2.75) vs Mentality ($1.45).

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It’s Ladies Day at Flemington tomorrow, and the crowds will be out to see the running of the Group 1 Crown Oaks for fillies. The Oaks is an all-female version of the Victorian Derby. It is run over 2500m, which is a big distance for 3 year old fillies, and the prizemoney totals $1,000,000. The Oaks has uncovered some fillies that go on to perform as mares. Famous winners of the Crown Oaks include Special Harmony, Serenade Rose, Miss Finland, Arapaho Miss and 2008 winner Samantha Miss.

Bart Cummings’ Faint Perfume ($1.80 with Betfair) is the clear favourite, and with her win in the Group 2 Wakeful Stakes last Saturday it’s easy to see why. The Wakeful Stakes is considered the best lead up race to the Oaks; 9 of the past 20 winners of the race have raced in the Stakes. Faint Perfume dominated the race, winning by 3 lengths.  The Oaks might turn out to be a consolation for Bart after the dismal effort of his horses in the Melbourne Cup (I hope you followed my advice and backed Shocking).

Faint Perfume’s nearest rival is right out at $10.50 with Betfair. Livia, who did not race in the Wakeful Stakes, is unexperienced compared to her rivals, finishing 4^th in her only attempt at Group level, but the signs have been promising. Again, the Oaks could prove consolation for Livia’s trainer, David Hayes, after his horse Changingoftheguard was scratched from the Melbourne Cup.

This will be Valdemoro’s ($11.50) first race at Group level, and although he is yet to win a race, don’t knock him just yet. He finished second in the Sportingbet Plate for fillies, where he beat Livia, Princess Rage and Zapurb, all racing in the Oaks. She may be inexperienced, but with an excellent pedigree (Her sire was champion Encosta de Lago), and an experienced trainer in Tony Vasil, she might upset the more seasoned runners.

Melito finished second in the Wakeful Stakes, but is right out at $19. The experienced Sydney runner is having a monster Spring Carnival (this will be her 7^th race), and we will soon see if she can end it on a good note.

It is very hard to go against Faint Perfume’s win in the Wakeful, but she provides little value for money. Silent Surround ($11.50 – good value) and Valdemoro are the next best, and Melito provides plenty of value. If you’re looking for value, Betfair is the one place to go.

MY TIPS:

Faint Perfume

Silent Surround

Valdemoro

Melito

It’s finally here. After all our waiting, the “race that stops the nation” has arrived. The Group 1 Melbourne Cup at Flemington is like no other race in the world. Run over 2 miles (3200m), it boasts an astonishing 5.5 million dollars. A huge field of 24 makes tipping a winner as hard as it gets, but that doesn’t stop millions of Australians from taking a punt. Those millions will be stuffed into their local TABs today and tomorrow, so take the smart option and bet online with Betfair – where you’ll also get better odds.

Only champion horses win Melbourne Cups. Past champions include Kingston Rule, Might and Power, Rogan Josh and, of course, Makybe Diva, who won the race three times.

It takes a real champion to win this race twice in a row, and Viewed is looking to achieve that status this year. Winning the Cup last year with odds of $41, he is favourite this time at $5.60. It is hard to find a fault in his preparation this spring. He won the Caulfield Cup by two and a half lengths, and his final few hundred metres in Saturday’s Mackinnon Stakes proved that he was in career best form.

Alcopop had been equal favourite with Viewed until the latter’s great race in the Mackinnon. Alcopop is now at $5.70 with Betfair, but although his form is excellent, I’m not convinced. He has only raced 10 times, and only once at Group level. While winning form is always good form, and he may just be one of those freakish, unbeatable horses, I think $5.70 in a field of 24 is too short.

Another chance is Bart Cummings’ Roman Emperor. He raced beautifully in the Caulfield Cup, finishing second to Viewed. He is at $10 with Betfair, and if you like him, put a bet on now. Every man and his dog will be putting a bet on Cummings’ seemingly invincible horses, which will result in them being massive unders. If you do want to put a bet on Bart, you could look for some value in Allez Wonder, who is at $38 with Betfair (by far the best odds you’ll get for her).

The international horses have not fared well at all this Spring Carnival. Highly fancied Cima de Triomphe failed in both the Caulfield Cup and the Mackinnon Stakes, and did not even manage a place in this field. Irish raider Changingoftheguard is the most favoured of the European horses at $25. His form in Great Britain has been solid, but you can never tell whether a horse will race brilliant or flop when it has never raced in Australia before.

Australian horses take up only 7 of the 24 spots in the race; New Zealand being the dominant nation with 11. Daffodil ($19) and Master O’Reilly ($15.50), along with Roman Emperor, look the best of the Kiwis. This will be Master O’Reilly’s third Melbourne Cup, finishing 8^th and 4^th in the last two. His form this year has been excellent, and his last 200m in the Mackinnon Stakes sets him as a really good chance. The only query is whether or not he can actually win the race – he has not won anything since the 2007 Caulfield Cup.

Shocking has come from nowhere to become one of the favourites after his impressive win in the Lexus Stakes. He is now at $11.50, and his form over Group 2 and 3 races this spring has been fantastic. It’s very hard to knock his performances so far, except he will be up against some quality horses this time. He has also drawn a very wide barrier so things will be tough from there.

So, I need to pick a winner from a field of 24. It’s tough, but I’m going to go for Shocking, on the basis of his last win. Viewed will definitely be there over the last 200m, and don’t Master O’Reilly to be left behind when the sprinting begins. There is plenty of value here, and I can’t believe that Allez Wonder is at $38. Changingoftheguard is also good value.

MY TIPS

Shocking

Viewed

Master O’Reilly

Changingoftheguard

Allez Wonder

See our friends at Racing Bet Of The Day for more tips and info on the Melbourne Cup

The Group 1 AAMI Victoria Derby is the premier staying event for 3 year olds on the Australian racing calendar. Run over 2500m, each colt and gelding has 55.5kg and each filly carries 53kg to ensure the best horse really does win. There is over 1 and a half million dollars in prizemoney and trophies to be shared between the top eight runners. It takes a champion three year old to win this race. Most winners are male; the last time a filly won this race was in 1923. Previous winners of the Derby have gone onto win Caulfield Cups Cox Plates and Melbourne Cups and generally have outstanding careers. Some champion winners of the race include Phar Lap, Dulcify and, in more recent times, Nothin’ Leica Dane, Helenus and Efficient.

It seems likely that this year’s field will provide more than one champion horse. Shamoline Warrior is the next big thing in the Mark Kavanagh stables, and he is being touted as better than Maldivian and Whobegotyou. He has already won a group race in Melbourne, the Group 3 Norman Robinson Stakes, beating his 3 year old contenders, including Onemorenomore, who is racing in the Derby. Shamoline Warrior is currently the favourite at $3.40 with Betfair.

I like Monaco Consul ($5.50). Racing in Sydney, he won the Group 1 Champion Stakes at Randwick earlier this month. He has not raced over this distance before, but neither have any of his competitors. The major query will be the track – he has not raced in Melbourne before. His previous form shows that he might be better suited to a heavy or slow track, so don’t be afraid to bet on him if we get some rain.

Rockferry is at $5.80; however he has not had the experience of some of his 3 year old rivals. His only win has come from a maiden at Geelong, though he finished 3^rd in a listed race there last start. I think he is too untried to warrant a bet, but he has shown promise and he is still a chance, though there are better horses in this race. The one major advantage he has over his competitors is the fact he has raced over 2200m, which might not be the distance required here, but he has that experience of racing at a distance longer than 2000m, which most of the others have not.

Viking Legend is finished 3^rd in the Group 2 AAMI Vase on Cox Plate Day, and is at $14.50 with Betfair here. He has a lot of experience, but he has looked his best over the 1800-2000m mark, so the journey up to 2500m may prove testing for him.

This will be a fantastic race to watch. I am going to go with Monaco Consul for the win, though it could easily be any one of 5 or 6 horses who could go home victorious. I think Monaco Consul and Onemorenomore ($11.50) will be up there, as will Viking Legend, who is good for some more value.

MY TIPS:

Monaco Consul

Shamoline Warrior

Onemorenomore

Viking Legend

While most important races on Derby Day are ran over longer distances, the length of the $500,000 Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes is perfect for attracting some of the best quality 3 year olds in Australian racing. The 1200 metres are run down the straight track, which showcases some of the best sprinters of the future. This race has a fantastic record for providing fantastic sprinters with one of their first Group 1 victories. Famous winners of this race include champion Encosta de Lago, Alinghi, Gold Edition and Weekend Hussler.

Phelan Ready ($12.50 with Betfair) is racing this year, quite possibly in career-worst form. He is yet to win a race this Spring Carnival, and apart from finishing second in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes, he been very disappointing this spring. He finished 7^th in a Group 2 last start; he was a champion racer as a two year old, but there are serious doubts about him now he is a three year old. However, saying that, he is such a quality horse that it would be very unwise to discount him as a chance.

Shellscrape ($11.00) has had a fantastic Spring Carnival in Sydney so far. He won the Group 2 Roman Consul last start at Randwick, and also won another Group 3 earlier in the Carnival. His one attempt at a Group 1, The Golden Rose, resulted in a 5^th against some very good quality opponents. He should perform better in this race considering it will be at his preferred distance, 1200m. It will be interesting to see how he handles racing in Melbourne, something other Sydney runners have struggled at.

My favourite horse, More Than Great ($11), let me down last start with a 5^th in the Caulfield Sprint, when I backed him to win. I won’t be doing the same thing again this week, but he is still a chance. That 5^th was the only time he had not made the top three in a race, and he has won twice over this distance before. This is a step up in class for him, and will be his first Group 1, but he might just steal a win against his more experienced 3 year old rivals.

Filly Irish Lights is coming off a win in the Thousand Guineas earlier this month. She has not lost a race this carnival and is probably the most in-form horse in the race. However, all her form has come from racing fillies, so this race against colts and geldings will prove a test for her. Irish Lights will head onto the Crown Oaks after this race, probably irrespectively of where she finishes. She is favourite here at $6.80.

I think Shellscrape will win here, his form being very good. Wanted, who finished second in the Schillaci Stakes, has a big chance, as does Irish Lights. For a little value, I’m going with More than Great.

MY TIPS:

Shellscrape

Wanted

Irish Lights

More Than Great

The Group 1 Myer Classic is the most prestigious all female race in the Spring Carnival as well as being the only opportunity for fillies to race against mares. The mile-long event is weight-for-age, so fillies have a better chance racing against the more experienced mares. There is $500,000 in prizemoney on offer as well as the honour of a Group 1 victory. The fillies in the race will be looking towards the Group 1 Crown Oaks on Thursday 5^th November, while the mares may go onto the Emirates Stakes or end their carnival after this race. Past winners of this race include Bonanova, Miss Potential and Divine Madonna.

Typhoon Tracy has been the mare of the Spring Carnival, despite the fact she has only one race. She is easily favourite with Betfair here at $2.25.  Her win last start in the Group 2 Tristarc Stakes was impressive, over some of her rivals here. However, those odds are just a little short for me at the moment.

Hot Danish ($4.40) finished second to Typhoon Tracy in the Tristarc Stakes. She has an excellent record, winning 11 of her 20 starts. It will be interesting to see how she handles the distance. She has won two races over 1600m before, but neither of them were a Group 1 and, importantly, they were both well over 2 years ago.

Lady Lynette is some good value at $14.00. She has won two races so far this spring, albeit at a less classy level than this. She has been racing well against mares and will not need to do much more than that. Her biggest advantage over her competition in this race is that she has won her previous two starts over 1600m, which has to count for something.

Gold Water ($10.00) was disappointing in the Tristarc Stakes, finishing ninth. His effort at Flemington before that was more promising, a second in the Rose of Kingston Stakes. I am not prepared to back him like I did last time, but the Gai Waterhouse factor warrants him a chance.

There are several other horses with a good chance, but unfortunately I can’t fit them all in. I think Typhoon Tracy will win, although it might not be worth the risk at $2.25. Hot Danish and Neroli will be there. Lady Lynette provides some value, but watch out for Gold Water and Zarita.

MY TIPS:

Typhoon Tracy

Hot Danish

Neroli

Lady Lynette

The $750,000 Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes is widely renowned for its status as the lead-up race to the Melbourne Cup. Many horses have raced in the 2000m Stakes before making the tough Melbourne Cup run, after which they most definitely deserve a break.. It is rather ironic to note that the horses who do well in the Melbourne Cup do not always perform here – last year’s Cup winner, Viewed, finished last in this race before going on to win the big one. Previous winners of this race include Empire Rose, Let’s Elope, Rogan Josh and Lonhro.

Like every year, this Mackinnon Stakes is very open, with almost all of the 13 racers considered a chance. The favourite is Rangirangdoo ($3.60 with Betfair), who has had an excellent Spring Carnival, topped off by winning the Group 2 Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley last start. He is not headed for the Melbourne Cup, so this might be his “Grand Final” or perhaps the Sandown Guineas.

Viewed, however, will race in the Melbourne Cup, where he is equal favourite. Here he is at odds of $9. There will be a lot of eyes on him no matter where he finishes, seeing how he handles the track and whether he is up to the form that saw him win the Cup last year.

7 year-old Scenic Shot ($9.20) raced pretty well in the Cox Plate last week, finishing 5^th. The veteran of 53 races had a shaky start to the Spring Carnival, finishing last and 11^th in his first two races. However, after hitting some form in the Turnbull Stakes, he looks like he is almost at his best.

There has been a lot of controversy over Vigor’s Melbourne Cup bid. Despite a top-three finish in the Caulfield Cup, he still remains 28^th in the ballot order, and only 24 horses will make the final cut. The winner of this race automatically qualifies for the Melbourne Cup, but Vigor is not even certain to race here. Vigor is at $7.60, but I’m not getting on until I’m sure he’s racing.

This is a very tough race to call, and I’m to go for Zipping ($8.20) on the basis of his Cox Plate form. Rangirangdoo’s form has been too hard to ignore, and I am going with Viewed for third. For some value look at Racing to Win ($16.50) or, if you’re a real gambler, maybe country racer Mandela at $85.00.

MY TIPS:

Zipping

Rangirangdoo

Viewed

Racing to Win

The Group 1 Tatts Cox Plate is the most prestigious weight-for-age race in Australia. The 2040m race is worth over 3 million dollars in prizemoney and trophies, but it is the honour of winning such an important race that drags the big named horses and trainers to the race. The Cox Plate is characteristically won by a top quality horse – past winners include Kingston Town (3 times), Sunline (2 times), Northerly (2 times) and Makybe Diva. Perhaps the most famous winner of the race is Fields of Omagh, who raced in the Plate 5 times for two wins, including the 2006 Plate when, as a nine year old, he became the oldest winner of the race.

As for this race, quality horses are bountiful.  The favourite is Whobegotyou, currently at $3.25 with Betfair (some pretty juicy odds). I made the mistake of betting against Whobegotyou when he was favourite in the Yalumba Stakes, but I will not make it again. Despite drawing a wide barrier, Whobegotyou is a star and I have every confidence in him to win this race.

I bet against Whobegotyou last time for Heart of Dreams, the 4 year old gelding who, in the end, finished second. He has drawn well and will jump from barrier 3, which is one advantage he has over Whobegotyou. Heart of Dreams is certainly a chance, and is at $6.00 with Betfair. This race could easily turn into a showdown between him and Whobegotyou.

One horse looking to muscle his way into the winner’s circle is Speed Gifted ($12.00), Lee Freedman’s 5 year old gelding from Great Britain. Unlike many of the other international horses in the carnival, he has had experience in Australian racing, winning at Randwick and Flemington. This will be his first race at Moonee Valley, and despite winning at distances above and below 2000m, he has only raced at the distance once.

Another chance at slightly longer odds is the Gai Waterhouse-trained Rock Kingdom ($20.00), who won the Group 1 Epsom Handicap and finished 3^rd the Toorak Handicap. He is in great form, and I will again profess my admiration for Gai Waterhouse, but he has not won over 1600m. However he is definitely a chance and his odds look juicy for an each-way bet with Betfair.

Manhattan Rain, Gai Waterhouse’s other runner, has drifted majorly with Betfair, thanks to a poor barrier draw. However, an impressive 3^rd in the Caulfield Guineas and some excellent form before that makes $28.00 seem like long odds. Because of the huge amounts of money poured into the betting pools for this race, the odds on horses will change dramatically on race day. So if you like Manhattan Rain, be sure to place a fixed bet with Betfair before his odds shorten.

I will not bet against Whobegotyou again, so he is my tip to win this year’s Cox Plate. Heart of Dreams is possibly the only other horse that can stick with “Whobe,” while Speed Gifted will also battle hard. For a little value, take your pick between Rock Kingdom and Manhattan Rain. Scenic Shot and So You Think are also good value.

MY TIPS:

Whobegotyou

Heart of Dreams

Speed Gifted

Rock Kingdom

Group racing really heats up this week with the Group 1 BMW Caulfield Cup at Caulfield Racecourse. With two and a half million dollars at stake, Australian racing has provided some of its best horses to run out this 2400m race. The Caulfield Cup – Melbourne Cup double is acknowledged as probably the greatest feat a horse can achieve over one Spring Carnival. Horses to have done this in the past include Let’s Elope, Doriemus and Might and Power. The most recent horse to have achieved the double was Ethereal in 2001.

While the big news about this year’s Caulfield Cup has been more about who’s not racing than who is, the race is still sure to be a cracker. There are several horses vying for favouritism, and at the time of writing, it’s a three way tie.

Vigor is at $10, and was nothing but disappointing in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes, finishing 13^th. It will be interesting to see how he fares in this race considering he is favourite over horses that beat him in both the Turnbull Stakes and the Underwood Stakes earlier in the Carnival. He is at $13 with Betfair for the Melbourne Cup, but those odds will change dramatically depending on his result here.

Predatory Pricer has been in excellent form, beating Vigor in both of the Turnbull and Underwood Stakes, finishing in the top three on both occasions. His form has been equal to that of any other horse in this race and is at equal favourite at $8.50 is a good piece of value, even with the open field.

Luca Cumani is back to his old tricks again, this time with Irish horse Cima de Triomphe. Last year his horse Bauer fell agonisingly short of Melbourne Cup victory, but Cumani’s confident he’s on the money this year with this 4 year old colt. Cima de Triomphe is currently at $8.50 with Betfair.

Kirklees is also equal favourite at $8.50. The Saeed Bin Suroor-trained 5 year old has been in top form racing in the UK, and has now come to Melbourne to claim the spoils of its Spring Carnival. He has won his past 3 in the UK, over similar distances and, track queries aside, looks one of the horses to beat.

Allez Wonder jumped onto the racing scene last week with a surprise win in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap, giving Michelle Payne the biggest win of her career. She will be aboard again, looking to become the first female jockey to win a Caulfield Cup. Allez Wonder is at $13.00 with Betfair.

This is a race jam-packed with talent and class, so any Trifecta, First 4 or Quaddie bets should include several horses. The three favourites must be there, and because of that I’ve put in 5 tips instead of the usual 4. Other horses I have not mentioned to consider include Daffodil, Master O’Reilly and Red Ruler.

My Tips:

Predatory Pricer

Cima de Triomphe

Allez Wonder

Kirklees

Light Vision

While the Caulfield Guineas showcases the best 3 year olds from around the country, the Yalumba Stakes shows off some of the best weight-for-age horses. Champion horses have won the race before, such as Kingston Town, Sky Heights and Lonhro. The Stakes is run over 2000m and is worth $400,000.

The favourite in this year’s race is Whobegotyou, who seems to be favourite in every race he takes part in. He is at $2.50 at the moment, and with his recent form it’s easy to see why. He won the Group 2 Dato’Tan Chin Nam Stakes last month and was a close second in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes.

However, the horse that beat him the Underwood Stakes, Heart of Dreams, is also racing, and will be looking to win again. He looked promising earlier this spell, but was unable to win until the Underwood Stakes and now looks at the peak of his form. Heart of Dreams is at $3.20, but may be a little short.

One horse with some juicier odds is Nom Du Jeu at $12.00. He is not long back from a spell, and after two seconds, should be ready to make an assault on the winner’s circle. He has been nominated for the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup. Of those the Cox Plate looks the likely target.

Douro Valley ($51 at Betfair) won this race last year, but unfortunately has gone backwards since then. He finished last in the Underwood Stakes, which shows that he is, honestly, out of his league here.

Veteran Vision and Power is at $9.00. He is yet to place in a race since April, though his form over the last few weeks is hinting at something big. He finished fourth in the Group 1 George Main Stakes, and this might be the race for him, considering he has won over the distance twice before.

I think Heart of Dreams might get the better of Whobegotyou here, but expect an epic last 400m. Vision and Power will also be there as always. For a little more value, watch out for Nom Du Jeu, who expect to shorten significantly in price for the Cox Plate if he wins this.

My Tips:

Heart of Dreams

Whobegotyou

Vision and Power

Nom Du Jeu