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Round 18 is upon us and brings some important games for teams in search of a top 8 spot come finals time. The Collingwood V Brisbane match is the game of the round with both teams level pegging on the ladder with 11 wins and 6 losses. It will be a huge test for both teams and the winner will likely take a top 4 spot by the end of the weekend.

Sports Bet of the Round

Congratulations to everyone that jumped on last weeks $5.00 multi bet. It was touch and go with a few of the games but we pulled through.

My round eighteen tip is Carlton, Richmond, Geelong, Essendon and Collingwood in a multi. It will pay around $4.00 with Sportsbet who will also give you a $50 free bet just for joining them through Sportsbet Blog.

North Melbourne V Carlton Friday Night at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Carlton

Carlton will be desperate to get their game back on track after a dismal performance last Friday night against the Pies. Chris Judd is their only real shining light at the moment and looks set to be a top 3 chance for the Brownlow Medal and is paying $5.00 at Sportsbet.

With club great Adam Simpson announcing his retirement after this weekends match it may add some spark to the Kangaroos side making for a close game. But there’s no doubt that the Blues have a far stronger side and will bounce back and get a win here.

My prediction is 40+ points.

Western Bulldogs V Fremantle Saturday at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Western Bulldogs

The Dogs will be out to get back on the winners list after a heavy loss to the league leaders St Kilda. Freo have trouble playing in Melbourne and will struggle with the pace of the Bulldogs.

Brad Johnson will be the man of the moment when he lines up on Saturday to play a Bulldogs record breaking 342 game for the club. Interesting enough the Bulldogs are letting every child who is accompanied by a paying adult to enter free for this match, which should see a nice sized crowd to the game.

Geelong V Adelaide Saturday at Skilled Stadium

Tip: Geelong

Geelong again need to prove to their supporters they have what it takes to win the Premiership this year. They looked far from impressive in their 1 point win over the Hawks after the siren and need to clean up their skills if they are to get back to their usual form.

Adelaide continue to impress and would be confident coming down to Skilled Stadium this weekend. But Geelong at home are a unstoppable force and should wrap the game up early.

If your looking at betting on Geelong to win the Grand Final now is a good time as I think the odds wont get any longer than they are now. Currently they are paying $2.55 and are close favourites to St Kilda at $2.60. IASbet have a great promo at the moment that will give you a $100 free bet on heaps of events including the Grand Final when making $50 worth of bets.

Sydney V St Kilda Saturday Night at the SCG

Tip: St Kilda

The Saints are on the road to the finals now with the final 5 games being all teams that are out of the eight. Those that took up my St Kilda tip last week will be rubbing their hands together after the odds dropped from $3.15 to $1.85 for the Saints to go undefeated after the win against the Bulldogs. Their perfect run will continue up in Sydney and I’m tipping it will end any chance of the Swans getting to the finals.

As usual Nick Riewoldt and Stephen Milne will be the ones to watch after both kicking 5 goals last weekend.

Collingwood V Brisbane Saturday Night at the MCG

Tip: Collingwood

The Pies are on top of the world with the signing of Nathan Buckley this week and a big win over arch rivals Carlton last weekend. This will spur the Pies on this weekend and should get the points.

The match up against the Lions will still be great with Jonathan Brown showing he can play a one man forward with a massive eight goals last week in their 41 point win. After that effort he is now clear favourite to win the Coleman Medal with Sportsbet and is paying $2.25.

Tim Notting will be missed at the Lions with one week on the sidelines after a high hit on the Kangaroos Scott Thompson.

Melbourne V Richmond Sunday at the MCG

Tip: Richmond

Both teams are playing for pride but have shown some signs of success in the last month or so. Richmond have pleased their supporters will some hard pressure football that has resulted in a nail biting draw and a great win against Essendon.

Jade Rawlings looks to be getting somewhere with the list and has sparked up the team to give all they have. This should see them to a win over an inaccurate kicking Daemons side.

Port Adelaide V Hawthorn Sunday at AAMI Stadium

Tip: Hawthorn

The Hawks are back and this game will show they mean business. They are playing with allot of flair which saw them win the Premiership last year and if they can continue this they may just scrape into the top 8 come the end of the year.

Buddy looks to have his confidence back and playing great footy with goals from all over the ground. His presence on the field is enough to spur the team on which should see them onto a big win at AAMI Stadium.

West Coast V Essendon Sunday at Subiaco

Tip: Essendon

This is a must win game for Essendon to keep their finals chances alive. They seemed to be off their usual game last week losing in a nail biter but should bounce back over in the West.

The Dons will be do it tough though up forward with goal kicker Matthew Lloyd to miss the game with a badly bruised heel.

The time has finally come to witness history with two teams going head to head that are both on a unbeaten thirteen wins a feat which has never been seen before. Both St Kilda and Geelong look ready to what should be a cracker of a match. Round fourteen also has another great game in Essendon and Collingwood on Friday night. This weekend has the look of a finals series in July and by Sunday night we will know alot about how the rest of the season might be shaped.

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Sports Bet of the Round

Sportsbet are celebrating a massive round of footy with a “Blockbuster Double” market covering both the St Kilda v Geelong game and Essendon v Collingwood match. The sports bet of the round is Geelong and Collingwood to win in this market and will pay around $2.40 at Sportsbet who will also give you a $50 free bet on this weeks tip just for signing up with them here.

Essendon V Collingwood Friday Night at the MCG

Tip: Collingwood

This should be one to be remembered in be a very fast paced game with plenty of highlights with both teams coming off big wins. Collingwood look to be the stronger side on paper with Leon Davis and Scott Pendlebury both chances to come back to the inform Pies team but Essendons recent upsets made this game a tough one to pick. If Collingwood can slow the Dons down in the midfield they should be able to scratch out a hard fort win

Melbourne V West Coast Saturday at the MCG

Tip: West Coast

Home ground advantage won’t help Melbourne here as they continue their nightmare season. West Coast showed signs of what’s to come with a upset win against the Hawks last week and should easily over come Melbourne. Dean Cox will be a massive inclusion in the middle for the Eagles after recovering from injury. Keep an eye on Matthew Priddis, his first efforts on the ball are match winning and should do well this weekend.

Port Adelaide V Brisbane Sunday at AAMI Stadium

Tip: Brisbane

A win for the Lions here could see them in the top four and the form their usual goal kickers in Brown and Bradshaw are in should see them get a win over in Adelaide this weekend. Luke Power has also been instrumental in the middle helping the ball forward on numerous occasions in past weeks. Port Power are going through a rough patch at the moment only winning one of their last 5 games after what started a promising start to the season. They are struggling in defense with many crucial turn overs resulting in opposition goals. Brisbane by 29 points.

Western Bulldogs V Hawthorn Saturday Night at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Western Bulldogs

A big football game for both clubs which will make for a great spectacle. The Bulldogs are looking for a win here to keep a very important one game lead of the positions 4 to 6 on the ladder. The Hawks who look down and out are just keeping in touch with the top 8 and a loss here would definitely spell end for a chance to go back to back premiers this year. Daniel Giansiracusa is a big loss for the Doggies and will miss 6 weeks after surgery to remove loose material in his knee.

The Bulldogs should win here but don’t put your house on it, I still feel the Hawks will make a decent run in the second half of the season and wouldn’t surprised if they get up at Etihad this weekend .

Richmond V Adelaide Saturday Night at the Gold Coast

Tip: Adelaide

Richmond continue to disappoint in what could have been a great year for them and will struggle to kick a winning score against the Crows this weekend. The Tigers forward line lacks the experience and the attack needed to be a top eight side. Adelaide on the other hand is looking to claim their sixth win in a row. Jason Porplyzia is the Crows key to winning after a great couple of weeks including four goals last weekend against the Swans. I’m tipping Adelaide to win by 28 points.

Sydney V North Melbourne Sunday at the SCG

Tip: Sydney

Even without big Barry Hall this weekend Sydney have the depth to get a win at the SCG. North’s forward line has failed so far this year and a long injury list including the lively Daniel Wells has hampered any attempts of a recovery. Marty Mattner and Rhyce Shaw have been the shining light for the Swans the the last few weeks, look out for them to have another high possession game here.

Fremantle V Carlton Sunday at Subiaco

Tip: Carlton

The Blues desperately need a win here to hit back after a disappointing loss last weekend against Essendon. Chris Judd and Bryce Gibbs with be the telling signs if the Blues are to get up, if these players get a few early possessions it seems to spur the whole team to step up.

Although I’ve tipped Carlton there could be a upset in the waiting with plenty of value for Freo who win a lot of games where they are underdogs. Sportsbet have them at $2.35 to win at Subiaco which I think is pretty good for a home ground advantage and worth a bet. Sportsbet will give you a $50 free bet on this game just for joining. Checkout the site here for the latest odds and to claim your $50 free bet.

St Kilda V Geelong Sunday at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Geelong

Have your video recorders set because you will want to see this one again. It was a very hard thing to do but I’m tipping against my Saints for the first time this year. I’ve seen a lot of Geelong’s games in the last few months and they look a more mature and solid team that usually play on their terms. That’s not saying St Kilda will get beaten heavily in what promises to be one of the games of the year. There will be key match ups all over the ground with the midfield match ups the most crucial. Gary Ablett will once again be the key to the match. I think the Saints will let him do his own thing and won’t assign a full time tagger on him and concentrate their efforts on other Geelong stars Jimmy Bartel and Joel Corey.

A draw would be a ideal result to both of these unbeaten clubs. I hope I’m wrong but my prediction is around a 12 point win to the Cats.

This weekends round 12 football has three games remaining from the split round including the the much anticipated match against Sydney and Collingwood on Saturday night. Checkout the first week of round twelves tips here.

I’m not much of a fan of the split round, there isn’t any games in Melbourne on both Saturday and Sunday which will leave hundreds of thousands of people wondering what to do with them selves. There isn’t any good reason to have the break other than for the players (who’s job it is to kick the ball around) to have the weekend off. I say, let them play! They have three or four months off at the end of the season to kick back and relax!

Now to the tips…

Essendon V Melbourne, Friday Night at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Essendon

The Bombers should have a comfortable win on Friday night. They play Etihad stadium well and the return of Dustin Fletcher to spice up the Essendon back line should see them home. The much needed Paddy Ryder will line up in the ruck after beating a two match ban at the AFL tribunal last week for rough conduct.

Sydney V Collingwood, Saturday at ANZ Stadium

Tip: Collingwood

This should be a great game with both teams level on form and looking for a position in the top 8 after this game. Sydney’s odds have widened a little from $1.82 last week to $1.87 with Sportsbet. My tip is Collingwood, there’s great value for them at the moment at $1.95 with forward duo Anthony Rocca and Paul Medhurst likely to be named to play after coming back from injuries in the VFL last week. Even though the game is in Sydney, I predict that the Pies should have a fairly easy win here, they can be inconsistent at times but after the weeks break they should be ready to go.

Sportsbet will give you a $50 free bet to place on any AFL game (including my Collingwood tip!) just for making a new account, with no deposit necessary! Check them out here.

Fremantle V Geelong, Sunday at Suibiaco Oval

Tip: Geelong

This ones pretty self explanatory. Freo can’t beat a down and out Richmond at home so how could they possibly beat the class of the Cats? Geelong by a large margin. With the St Kilda V Geelong blockbuster match now only a couple of weeks away, injuries will become very important to their chances of winning. Taking that into account there may not be as much head first to the ball kind of things we are used to from the Cats this weekend if the game is a blow out.

There a two standout games this weekend with Hawthorn and Carton going head to head with both clubs needing to answer to their critics. Hawthorn were less than convincing after a win against a bottom 8 side in the Eagles where they should have stretched the winning margin out alot more than 18 points.

The St Kilda V Bulldogs game is the match of the round with both teams destined to do well in 2009. This will be the biggest test for the Saints this season and the result will show if they can match it with the big teams after a perfect start to the year.

AFL Tip of the Week: For all the punters my tip of the round is Hawks, West Coast and Adelaide to win in a multi that at IASbet will pay around $6.30. You can place this bet on at IASbet and get a $100 free bet when depositing $50 or more.

North Melbourne V Collingwood. Friday night at Etihad Stadium

Selection: Collingwood

The Pies have had an average start to what was expected to be a real contender after making it to the pre-season final. After a disappointing loss to their arch rival Carton last week I think they will bounce back against the Roos and have a comfortable victory. Also with Brett Harvey out for up to 12 weeks through injury it will only make the task tougher for the Kangaroos.

Hawthorn V Carlton. Saturday at the MCG

Selection: Hawthorn

This should be a very high paced, high scoring game. Both clubs have fast game styles which makes for great footy. This game will ultimately come down to which team makes the most of the inside 50 entries that both teams are very good at creating. The big forwards in Fevola, Buddy Franklin and Roughhead will be the key to success and I think the Hawks will come out on top. With premiership players Stephen Gilham, Brent Guerra and Michael Osborne returning for the Hawks their form from last year will start to return.

West Coast V Fremantle. Saturday at Subiaco Oval

Selection: West Coast

West Coast are usually an unstoppable force in Subiaco and with the added hype of the local derby the Eagles should fly high over what looks to be another disappointing year for the Dockers. As I have said in previous tips never to tip Freo. The battle of the WA rucks will be worth a look with both Cox and Sandilands going head to head in the middle. Sandilands dominated the leagues top ruck Darren Jolly last weekend with 46 hitouts.

Brisbane V Essendon. Saturday Night at the Gabba

Selection: Brisbane

This one is tough to make a prediction but I think home ground advantage will come into play at the Gabba. Brisbane should make up for the huge loss to a top class Geelong outfit last weekend. Essendon are showing good spirit with three wins this year and a massive 5 point win against a skilled Collingwood side, but they will find it hard to play enough consistent footy to do it on a regular basis. The Lions will be out to put a stop to Brent Stanton after a gallant 34 touches of the football last weekend.

Port Adelaide V Adelaide. Saturday Night at AAMI Stadium

Selection: Adelaide

The other derby played this weekend is at AAMI stadium know as Showdown XXVI. Both South Australian teams are on 3 wins, 2 losses making this a must win for both clubs. The result will spring board the winner to a two game advantage over their rival and a likely top 4 position at the end of the week, where the loser will drop out of the 8. Tipping between them is hard, but I think Adelaide has enough class in the midfield with 7 players last week getting over 25 possessions and should account for Port in a low scoring match.

Sydney V Richmond. Sunday at the SCG

Selection: Sydney

Sydney should have an easy win over an unorganised Tigers team. The Tigers don’t seem to have a great deal of flow to their game which sees them get caught up in the mid field. Jolly should be the game breaker in the middle giving Sydney first use of the ball at stoppages.

Melbourne V Geelong. Sunday at the MCG

Selection: Geelong

The Cats are the team to beat this year and Melbourne don’t have the players or mindset to overcome majority of teams let alone the leagues top. Geelong should win by over 45 points, anything less would be a disappointing day for them. The umpires will have 3 Brownlow Medal points written for Gary Ablett before the game has started after a staggering 88 possessions in his last two games.

Western Bulldogs V St Kilda. Sunday at Edihad Stadium

Selection: St Kilda

This weeks game of the round will be a huge test for both clubs. I think if the Saints play with the confidence they have been playing with they will blow the game apart early in the match. The Dogs may cause a headache for the Saints across the wings with their speed and tackling pressure forcing errors and turnovers, but the they will struggle with inside 50 marking contests where it counts. Sam Fisher, Lenny Hayes and Jason Gram will be the ones to watch dominating the opposition every game this year

Footy tipping has become a serious past time with some people spending many hours studying the stats and ins and outs for each game to get an advantage for the weekends games. I’ve followed a few different tactics and stuck by them for the year to see if they are more successful than others.

Let the Bookies do the work for you!
The bookies know best so look at the odds for each game and go for the favourite every time, odds are you will come out on top.

They employ full time staff to assess each game very closely and change the odds as injuries or late inclusions happen pre game so make sure to check the odds and place your tips as close to the start of the game or the tipping cut off point as possible. If there is a game where both teams are paying the same odds go with the team with the higher ladder position, this was my rule I stuck at to get my tip.

The bookmaker method worked well and with least fuss as the tips were ready to be placed without having to research each game of each week.

Follow the Pros
There are heaps of celebrity tipsters that live and breath football. People like Rex Hunt and Mike Sheahan in the AFL always have there tips on the Internet, radio and in the newspapers. They are the ones that truly know how the game ticks and can usually pick the underdog winners. They have a big footy profile and this pressures them to be accurate as they are expected to know who is likely to win.

Follow your head, not your heart
When I first started tipping I couldn’t bring myself to tip against my team, this was a big mistake. Tipping my team when I knew they were going to be doing it tough cost me 4 or 5 games throughout the year which was very costly come the end of the season. Follow your head and look at it as a win-win situation if you tip against your team and they end up losing.

Taking all these tactics into account I found tipping with the bookmaker favourites a sure way to being on top or near to it. When a underdog does come up and win at least you know if anyone tipped them that they will most likely tip other non-winning underdogs through the season and not be a threat come the end of the year.

The best place for tipping online is at Sportsbet. Its free to enter and the winner get $250,000. They have heaps of prizes including weekly cash prizes totaling a massive $1,000,000. If you decide to bet with Sportsbet they give you a 100% free bet bonus on your first deposit up to $200.
To join Sportbet Million Dollar Tipping checkout their site here

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