Sportsbet Blog

Here are Luxbet’s Paul Vincent’s free horse racing tips for this weekends racing at Eagle Farm, Rose Hill and Flemington.

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Tattersall’s Tiara tip – Hurtle Myrtle is in career best form and represents by far the best value outside Beaded which will also be hard to beat.

Best bet – Eagle Farm Race 6 #2 Buffering – Coming of a strong run in the Stradbroke, faces a race with very few chances and looks to get the perfect run.
Best value – Rosehill Race 7 #7 Mr Edison – Has been hampered by bad barriers and wet tracks of late and should get the conditions to suit.
Lay of the day – Flemington Race 5 #4 Shadowfax – From the wide barrier M Rodd will have limited options and will have to endure a tough run to overcome a field with many hopes. A big risk at the current quote of $2.5.
Best backed runner – Eagle Farm Race 7 #1 Beaded – Punters more than happy to take the shorts – $2.2 into $2.

Some early action has been made at Sportingbet with some massive bets placed.

Although Black Caviar is a very short priced favourite for this Saturdays race the punters haven’t backed off with a number of big bets including a bet of $25,000 paying 1.28 placed earlier this week.

With Black Caviar likely to shorten even further by the start of the race sometimes it pays to get in early, so make sure you Sportingbet account today and claim $150 in free bets just for depositing $30!

Flemington
Black Caviar $25,000 @ $1.28, $16,000 @ $1.28, $15,000 @ $1.25, $12,000 @ $1.25, $10,000 @ 1.25
Pontiana $4000 @ $15
Brazilian Pulse $4400 @ $5
Whobegotyou $11,000 @ $1.85, $6000 @ $1.80, $5000 @ $1.80
Undeniably $4700 @ $2.50

Warwick Farm
Ilovethiscity $7000 @ $2.40, $5000 @ $2.50

A superb day’s racing at Flemington with seven Group races, three of them at the highest level.

The Australian Cup (Race 7) looks to be en even race with no stand-out WFA performer. Sportsbet’s traders are happy to take on favourite Heart of Dreams.

He had it all his way out in front in the St George Stakes and that is not likely to happen again and he is still a query at the 2000 metres.  Shocking is terrific value at $8.50. Loves Flemington and third up has been set for this race.

Bart Cummings has a good record in this race so look for Precedence to be in the finish. On this day last year he won a 2000 metre race by 7 lengths. Like Shocking and Precedence, Linton will also appreciate the big Flemington track and the addition of blinkers first time is a key gear change.

Alcopop looms as the best ‘roughie’ in the race after returning to form winning the Kilmore Cup. Playing God is a risk as he is not up to this class as yet.

Heart Of Dreams $4.40, Moudre $6.50, Precedence $6.50, Linton $7.00, Shocking $7.50, Playing God $12.00, Alcopop $15, Others $15.00 and above.

History will be made in the Newmarket Handicap (Race 6) when Black Caviar becomes the first horse in Australian racing to win its first ten starts.

Despite the 58 kg something would have to go terribly wrong for her not to win. Most trainers have conceded they are running for second, however, Sportsbet are confident that Star Witness will run the quinella and Hay List will fill the placings.

Star Witness got closest to the ‘great mare’ in the spring, while Hay List has done nothing wrong. Best ‘roughie’ is Beaded who was fantastic first up and is proven down the straight running second to Whitefriars in the Salinger Stakes last time in. Our traders are so confident that Sportsbet is offering double the odds on all horses except Black Caviar.

Black Caviar $1.28, Star Witness $19.00, Hay List $23.00, Beaded $31.00, Hinchinbrook $41.00, Response $51.00, Eagle Falls $51.00,  Others $101.00 and above.

Race Four is the Group Two Blamey Stakes and Sportsbet are very confident that this race belongs to Whobegotyou. He flew first up, is a proven Group One horse and at the set weights and penalties is a ‘good thing’.

The race looks to be a simple quinella race with Dao Dao,  Whobegotyou’s only danger. He meets him 3kg better than the Futurity Stakes and ran third as favourite in this race last year. Spacecraft and Doubtful Jack will both get good runs on the pace but there is still a doubt over Doubtful Jack on a firm track. An easy race for punters around the top two picks.

Whobegotyou $1.80, Dao Dao $4.20, Spacecraft $6.50, Doubtful Jack $10, Roadtrain $19.00, Rockpecker $31.00, Fanjura $31.00, Others $41.00 & Above.

The Kewney Stakes (Race 5) is a much better race for punters with top trainer Peter Moody the key to the race. He has four runners in the race with three of them set to go to the front and race on the speed.

Sayahailmary should lead with Do Ra Mi sitting outside of it and Zelsnitz getting a nice run in behind them. Our traders expect both Do Ra Mi and Zelsnitz to be in the placings, however, they think Lee Freedman will spoil the party with Ain’tnofallenstar. The filly was brilliant in Adelaide and will be even better at Flemington.

The kiwi Twilight Savings is the best ‘roughie’ in the race. She has good form at home behind the talented Jimmy Choux and is drawn to get a better run than when she resumed at the ‘Valley’. Brazilian Pulse first up against fitter horses is a ‘lay’ even though she is the best filly in the race.

Brazilian Pulse $5.5o , Ain’tnofallenstar $6.50, Do Ra Mi $7.00, Zelsnitz $8.00, Divorces $8.00, Twilight Savings $9.00, Sayahailmary $9.00, Others $11.00 & Above.

Flemington Snapshot
Best Bet: Undeniably (Down in grade and well placed)
Best Roughie: Alcopop
Lay of the day: Heart Of Dreams
Tap on the Shoulder: Star Witness at $3.80 in favourite out betting is the way to go in the Newmarket.

Well we’ve had to wait another week to see if Denman is the best colt in Australia when he finally takes his place in Saturday’s Group One Australian Guineas at Flemington. Despite all of the drama, punters haven’t been shaken and he’s still the hot pick at $1.75.

In the Australian Cup, Shocking will now take his place after originally being scratched last week, and in an open field the Mark Kavanagh trained galloper is solid in the market at $7.50. With his excellent record at Flemington of three starts for three wins including the Melbourne Cup, Shocking will be very competitive in what doesn’t appear to be the strongest of Australian Cups.

In Sydney, the Group One Randwick Guineas looks to be a very even race, with the consistent Shoot Out well supported at $3.60. On a great program, top Golden Slipper aspirants step out in the Skyline Stakes and the Sweet Embrace Stakes.

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It’s Ladies Day at Flemington tomorrow, and the crowds will be out to see the running of the Group 1 Crown Oaks for fillies. The Oaks is an all-female version of the Victorian Derby. It is run over 2500m, which is a big distance for 3 year old fillies, and the prizemoney totals $1,000,000. The Oaks has uncovered some fillies that go on to perform as mares. Famous winners of the Crown Oaks include Special Harmony, Serenade Rose, Miss Finland, Arapaho Miss and 2008 winner Samantha Miss.

Bart Cummings’ Faint Perfume ($1.80 with Betfair) is the clear favourite, and with her win in the Group 2 Wakeful Stakes last Saturday it’s easy to see why. The Wakeful Stakes is considered the best lead up race to the Oaks; 9 of the past 20 winners of the race have raced in the Stakes. Faint Perfume dominated the race, winning by 3 lengths.  The Oaks might turn out to be a consolation for Bart after the dismal effort of his horses in the Melbourne Cup (I hope you followed my advice and backed Shocking).

Faint Perfume’s nearest rival is right out at $10.50 with Betfair. Livia, who did not race in the Wakeful Stakes, is unexperienced compared to her rivals, finishing 4^th in her only attempt at Group level, but the signs have been promising. Again, the Oaks could prove consolation for Livia’s trainer, David Hayes, after his horse Changingoftheguard was scratched from the Melbourne Cup.

This will be Valdemoro’s ($11.50) first race at Group level, and although he is yet to win a race, don’t knock him just yet. He finished second in the Sportingbet Plate for fillies, where he beat Livia, Princess Rage and Zapurb, all racing in the Oaks. She may be inexperienced, but with an excellent pedigree (Her sire was champion Encosta de Lago), and an experienced trainer in Tony Vasil, she might upset the more seasoned runners.

Melito finished second in the Wakeful Stakes, but is right out at $19. The experienced Sydney runner is having a monster Spring Carnival (this will be her 7^th race), and we will soon see if she can end it on a good note.

It is very hard to go against Faint Perfume’s win in the Wakeful, but she provides little value for money. Silent Surround ($11.50 – good value) and Valdemoro are the next best, and Melito provides plenty of value. If you’re looking for value, Betfair is the one place to go.

MY TIPS:

Faint Perfume

Silent Surround

Valdemoro

Melito

The Group 1 AAMI Victoria Derby is the premier staying event for 3 year olds on the Australian racing calendar. Run over 2500m, each colt and gelding has 55.5kg and each filly carries 53kg to ensure the best horse really does win. There is over 1 and a half million dollars in prizemoney and trophies to be shared between the top eight runners. It takes a champion three year old to win this race. Most winners are male; the last time a filly won this race was in 1923. Previous winners of the Derby have gone onto win Caulfield Cups Cox Plates and Melbourne Cups and generally have outstanding careers. Some champion winners of the race include Phar Lap, Dulcify and, in more recent times, Nothin’ Leica Dane, Helenus and Efficient.

It seems likely that this year’s field will provide more than one champion horse. Shamoline Warrior is the next big thing in the Mark Kavanagh stables, and he is being touted as better than Maldivian and Whobegotyou. He has already won a group race in Melbourne, the Group 3 Norman Robinson Stakes, beating his 3 year old contenders, including Onemorenomore, who is racing in the Derby. Shamoline Warrior is currently the favourite at $3.40 with Betfair.

I like Monaco Consul ($5.50). Racing in Sydney, he won the Group 1 Champion Stakes at Randwick earlier this month. He has not raced over this distance before, but neither have any of his competitors. The major query will be the track – he has not raced in Melbourne before. His previous form shows that he might be better suited to a heavy or slow track, so don’t be afraid to bet on him if we get some rain.

Rockferry is at $5.80; however he has not had the experience of some of his 3 year old rivals. His only win has come from a maiden at Geelong, though he finished 3^rd in a listed race there last start. I think he is too untried to warrant a bet, but he has shown promise and he is still a chance, though there are better horses in this race. The one major advantage he has over his competitors is the fact he has raced over 2200m, which might not be the distance required here, but he has that experience of racing at a distance longer than 2000m, which most of the others have not.

Viking Legend is finished 3^rd in the Group 2 AAMI Vase on Cox Plate Day, and is at $14.50 with Betfair here. He has a lot of experience, but he has looked his best over the 1800-2000m mark, so the journey up to 2500m may prove testing for him.

This will be a fantastic race to watch. I am going to go with Monaco Consul for the win, though it could easily be any one of 5 or 6 horses who could go home victorious. I think Monaco Consul and Onemorenomore ($11.50) will be up there, as will Viking Legend, who is good for some more value.

MY TIPS:

Monaco Consul

Shamoline Warrior

Onemorenomore

Viking Legend

While most important races on Derby Day are ran over longer distances, the length of the $500,000 Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes is perfect for attracting some of the best quality 3 year olds in Australian racing. The 1200 metres are run down the straight track, which showcases some of the best sprinters of the future. This race has a fantastic record for providing fantastic sprinters with one of their first Group 1 victories. Famous winners of this race include champion Encosta de Lago, Alinghi, Gold Edition and Weekend Hussler.

Phelan Ready ($12.50 with Betfair) is racing this year, quite possibly in career-worst form. He is yet to win a race this Spring Carnival, and apart from finishing second in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes, he been very disappointing this spring. He finished 7^th in a Group 2 last start; he was a champion racer as a two year old, but there are serious doubts about him now he is a three year old. However, saying that, he is such a quality horse that it would be very unwise to discount him as a chance.

Shellscrape ($11.00) has had a fantastic Spring Carnival in Sydney so far. He won the Group 2 Roman Consul last start at Randwick, and also won another Group 3 earlier in the Carnival. His one attempt at a Group 1, The Golden Rose, resulted in a 5^th against some very good quality opponents. He should perform better in this race considering it will be at his preferred distance, 1200m. It will be interesting to see how he handles racing in Melbourne, something other Sydney runners have struggled at.

My favourite horse, More Than Great ($11), let me down last start with a 5^th in the Caulfield Sprint, when I backed him to win. I won’t be doing the same thing again this week, but he is still a chance. That 5^th was the only time he had not made the top three in a race, and he has won twice over this distance before. This is a step up in class for him, and will be his first Group 1, but he might just steal a win against his more experienced 3 year old rivals.

Filly Irish Lights is coming off a win in the Thousand Guineas earlier this month. She has not lost a race this carnival and is probably the most in-form horse in the race. However, all her form has come from racing fillies, so this race against colts and geldings will prove a test for her. Irish Lights will head onto the Crown Oaks after this race, probably irrespectively of where she finishes. She is favourite here at $6.80.

I think Shellscrape will win here, his form being very good. Wanted, who finished second in the Schillaci Stakes, has a big chance, as does Irish Lights. For a little value, I’m going with More than Great.

MY TIPS:

Shellscrape

Wanted

Irish Lights

More Than Great

The Group 1 Myer Classic is the most prestigious all female race in the Spring Carnival as well as being the only opportunity for fillies to race against mares. The mile-long event is weight-for-age, so fillies have a better chance racing against the more experienced mares. There is $500,000 in prizemoney on offer as well as the honour of a Group 1 victory. The fillies in the race will be looking towards the Group 1 Crown Oaks on Thursday 5^th November, while the mares may go onto the Emirates Stakes or end their carnival after this race. Past winners of this race include Bonanova, Miss Potential and Divine Madonna.

Typhoon Tracy has been the mare of the Spring Carnival, despite the fact she has only one race. She is easily favourite with Betfair here at $2.25.  Her win last start in the Group 2 Tristarc Stakes was impressive, over some of her rivals here. However, those odds are just a little short for me at the moment.

Hot Danish ($4.40) finished second to Typhoon Tracy in the Tristarc Stakes. She has an excellent record, winning 11 of her 20 starts. It will be interesting to see how she handles the distance. She has won two races over 1600m before, but neither of them were a Group 1 and, importantly, they were both well over 2 years ago.

Lady Lynette is some good value at $14.00. She has won two races so far this spring, albeit at a less classy level than this. She has been racing well against mares and will not need to do much more than that. Her biggest advantage over her competition in this race is that she has won her previous two starts over 1600m, which has to count for something.

Gold Water ($10.00) was disappointing in the Tristarc Stakes, finishing ninth. His effort at Flemington before that was more promising, a second in the Rose of Kingston Stakes. I am not prepared to back him like I did last time, but the Gai Waterhouse factor warrants him a chance.

There are several other horses with a good chance, but unfortunately I can’t fit them all in. I think Typhoon Tracy will win, although it might not be worth the risk at $2.25. Hot Danish and Neroli will be there. Lady Lynette provides some value, but watch out for Gold Water and Zarita.

MY TIPS:

Typhoon Tracy

Hot Danish

Neroli

Lady Lynette

The $750,000 Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes is widely renowned for its status as the lead-up race to the Melbourne Cup. Many horses have raced in the 2000m Stakes before making the tough Melbourne Cup run, after which they most definitely deserve a break.. It is rather ironic to note that the horses who do well in the Melbourne Cup do not always perform here – last year’s Cup winner, Viewed, finished last in this race before going on to win the big one. Previous winners of this race include Empire Rose, Let’s Elope, Rogan Josh and Lonhro.

Like every year, this Mackinnon Stakes is very open, with almost all of the 13 racers considered a chance. The favourite is Rangirangdoo ($3.60 with Betfair), who has had an excellent Spring Carnival, topped off by winning the Group 2 Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley last start. He is not headed for the Melbourne Cup, so this might be his “Grand Final” or perhaps the Sandown Guineas.

Viewed, however, will race in the Melbourne Cup, where he is equal favourite. Here he is at odds of $9. There will be a lot of eyes on him no matter where he finishes, seeing how he handles the track and whether he is up to the form that saw him win the Cup last year.

7 year-old Scenic Shot ($9.20) raced pretty well in the Cox Plate last week, finishing 5^th. The veteran of 53 races had a shaky start to the Spring Carnival, finishing last and 11^th in his first two races. However, after hitting some form in the Turnbull Stakes, he looks like he is almost at his best.

There has been a lot of controversy over Vigor’s Melbourne Cup bid. Despite a top-three finish in the Caulfield Cup, he still remains 28^th in the ballot order, and only 24 horses will make the final cut. The winner of this race automatically qualifies for the Melbourne Cup, but Vigor is not even certain to race here. Vigor is at $7.60, but I’m not getting on until I’m sure he’s racing.

This is a very tough race to call, and I’m to go for Zipping ($8.20) on the basis of his Cox Plate form. Rangirangdoo’s form has been too hard to ignore, and I am going with Viewed for third. For some value look at Racing to Win ($16.50) or, if you’re a real gambler, maybe country racer Mandela at $85.00.

MY TIPS:

Zipping

Rangirangdoo

Viewed

Racing to Win

The Group 2 Danehill Stakes, run over 1200m, is an exciting part of 3 year old racing this spring. The future for Australian racing looks bright, with names like Manhattan Rain, Delago Bolt and Rostova sure to feature in years to come.  The race has usually been won by a handy three year old, such as Tan Tat de Lago and last year’s winner, Aichi, rather than a big name horse.

Filly Rostova is also racing, and will be trying to improve on a disappointing sixth at Caulfield a few races ago. She has won one Group 2 before, but has not placed in her two starts over this distance. She is right out to around $11 with Betfair, and worth a dip.

Black Caviar is untried at group level, but has won all of his three races, including the listed Arrow Training Services Plate two weeks ago, over filly Miraculous Miss, who is also racing in the Danehill Stakes. He is currently at very short odds at $1.75, and deserves to be, but there are other horses that could snatch the win from him.

One of these is Manhattan Rain. The second favourite at $8.00, he has raced in three Group 1’s for a first and two thirds, and has hardly put a foot wrong it his lead up. The only possible worry could be is that he has not raced in Melbourne before, but even that is minor.

I’m hoping Delago Bolt can shake off some recent bad form and return to how he was racing at the start of this year, with a win in the Group 2 Black Opal Stakes. He’s at a tentative $17, but if you’re a risk-taker, might be worth an each-way bet for a nice return.

Gelding Tollesprit may be inexperienced compared to other horses in the race, but you can hardly fault his racing so far. He finished second in his first group race last week, and looks set for bigger things in the future.

Now for my tips. I’m playing safe and going with Black Caviar, but it’s an open race from there. Manhattan Rain’s form is too good to ignore, and I also like Rarefied, winner of the Up and Coming Stakes. Another one to put into your box trifecta, and a horse I’m really excited about is Tollesprit.

Betfair is the play to go for betting on horse racing this spring, they have 20% better odds than the tote and they also let you place lay bets on horses that you think wont win the race!

My Tips:

1st. Black Caviar

2nd. Manhattan Rain

3rd. Rarefied

4th. Tollesprit