It’s Ladies Day at Flemington tomorrow, and the crowds will be out to see the running of the Group 1 Crown Oaks for fillies. The Oaks is an all-female version of the Victorian Derby. It is run over 2500m, which is a big distance for 3 year old fillies, and the prizemoney totals $1,000,000. The Oaks has uncovered some fillies that go on to perform as mares. Famous winners of the Crown Oaks include Special Harmony, Serenade Rose, Miss Finland, Arapaho Miss and 2008 winner Samantha Miss.
Bart Cummings’ Faint Perfume ($1.80 with Betfair) is the clear favourite, and with her win in the Group 2 Wakeful Stakes last Saturday it’s easy to see why. The Wakeful Stakes is considered the best lead up race to the Oaks; 9 of the past 20 winners of the race have raced in the Stakes. Faint Perfume dominated the race, winning by 3 lengths. The Oaks might turn out to be a consolation for Bart after the dismal effort of his horses in the Melbourne Cup (I hope you followed my advice and backed Shocking).
Faint Perfume’s nearest rival is right out at $10.50 with Betfair. Livia, who did not race in the Wakeful Stakes, is unexperienced compared to her rivals, finishing 4th in her only attempt at Group level, but the signs have been promising. Again, the Oaks could prove consolation for Livia’s trainer, David Hayes, after his horse Changingoftheguard was scratched from the Melbourne Cup.
This will be Valdemoro’s ($11.50) first race at Group level, and although he is yet to win a race, don’t knock him just yet. He finished second in the Sportingbet Plate for fillies, where he beat Livia, Princess Rage and Zapurb, all racing in the Oaks. She may be inexperienced, but with an excellent pedigree (Her sire was champion Encosta de Lago), and an experienced trainer in Tony Vasil, she might upset the more seasoned runners.
Melito finished second in the Wakeful Stakes, but is right out at $19. The experienced Sydney runner is having a monster Spring Carnival (this will be her 7th race), and we will soon see if she can end it on a good note.
It is very hard to go against Faint Perfume’s win in the Wakeful, but she provides little value for money. Silent Surround ($11.50 – good value) and Valdemoro are the next best, and Melito provides plenty of value. If you’re looking for value, Betfair is the one place to go.
MY TIPS:
Faint Perfume
Silent Surround
Valdemoro
Melito
