Sportsbet Blog

Group racing really heats up this week with the Group 1 BMW Caulfield Cup at Caulfield Racecourse. With two and a half million dollars at stake, Australian racing has provided some of its best horses to run out this 2400m race. The Caulfield Cup – Melbourne Cup double is acknowledged as probably the greatest feat a horse can achieve over one Spring Carnival. Horses to have done this in the past include Let’s Elope, Doriemus and Might and Power. The most recent horse to have achieved the double was Ethereal in 2001.

While the big news about this year’s Caulfield Cup has been more about who’s not racing than who is, the race is still sure to be a cracker. There are several horses vying for favouritism, and at the time of writing, it’s a three way tie.

Vigor is at $10, and was nothing but disappointing in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes, finishing 13^th. It will be interesting to see how he fares in this race considering he is favourite over horses that beat him in both the Turnbull Stakes and the Underwood Stakes earlier in the Carnival. He is at $13 with Betfair for the Melbourne Cup, but those odds will change dramatically depending on his result here.

Predatory Pricer has been in excellent form, beating Vigor in both of the Turnbull and Underwood Stakes, finishing in the top three on both occasions. His form has been equal to that of any other horse in this race and is at equal favourite at $8.50 is a good piece of value, even with the open field.

Luca Cumani is back to his old tricks again, this time with Irish horse Cima de Triomphe. Last year his horse Bauer fell agonisingly short of Melbourne Cup victory, but Cumani’s confident he’s on the money this year with this 4 year old colt. Cima de Triomphe is currently at $8.50 with Betfair.

Kirklees is also equal favourite at $8.50. The Saeed Bin Suroor-trained 5 year old has been in top form racing in the UK, and has now come to Melbourne to claim the spoils of its Spring Carnival. He has won his past 3 in the UK, over similar distances and, track queries aside, looks one of the horses to beat.

Allez Wonder jumped onto the racing scene last week with a surprise win in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap, giving Michelle Payne the biggest win of her career. She will be aboard again, looking to become the first female jockey to win a Caulfield Cup. Allez Wonder is at $13.00 with Betfair.

This is a race jam-packed with talent and class, so any Trifecta, First 4 or Quaddie bets should include several horses. The three favourites must be there, and because of that I’ve put in 5 tips instead of the usual 4. Other horses I have not mentioned to consider include Daffodil, Master O’Reilly and Red Ruler.

My Tips:

Predatory Pricer

Cima de Triomphe

Allez Wonder

Kirklees

Light Vision

The first of two Group 2 races at Caulfield this week is the Tristarc Stakes, run over 1400m. The total prizemoney is $180,000, and while this might not rival that of the Caulfield Cup, it is still a lot. This race is usually considered a good form guide for the Myer Classic, which will be held this year at Flemington on Victoria Derby Day. Past winners of this race include Infinite Grace and Mimi Lebrock.

Typhoon Tracy has been one of the horses of the spring, and is $3.60 with Betfair for this race. She has raced 3 times this spring, for 1 win and 1 place. She underperformed in her last race, the Underwood Stakes, finishing 8^th, but you can expect better from her this time.

The favourite is Hot Danish, who is no stranger to the Spring Carnival. She finished fifth in her last race, but won the Group 3 Research Stakes before that, adding to her claim as one of Australia’s best mares. Hot Danish is $2.80 with Betfair.

At $8.00 is Gold Water, who finished second in the Group 2 Rose of Kingston Stakes coming off a spell. Gai Waterhouse only ever brings her best horses to Melbourne for the Spring Carnival, and it’s clear that she’s confident about this mare.

The Peter Snowdon trained Neroli, who finished 4^th in the Rose of Kingston Stakes (when she was favourite), is at $5.50. She has been popular in Fantasy Stables, and many people will be hoping she can perform this week to get some points on the board.

Chinchilla Rose is something of veteran in races like these, although only being 5 years old. The mare has not been in the best form, finishing 6^th in a listed race after a 3 month spell. Chinchilla Rose is at $26.00 with Betfair.

I think Gold Water could easily pull off an upset here. I respect Gai Waterhouse a lot, and I think Gold Water will win here. Hot Danish and Typhoon Tracy are the other two I like, and Japanese mare Jolie’s Shinju is good value at $18.00.

MY TIPS:

Gold Water

Hot Danish

Typhoon Tracy

Jolie’s Shinju

The biggest Group 2 race this week is the $200,000 Schillaci Stakes at Caulfield. Run over 1000m, it’s a premier race for sprinters. Some great sprinters have won this race, such as Mahogany, Miss Andretti and Gold Edition. The Stakes is considered a good form guide for several sprint races later in the carnival including the Schweppes Stakes on Cox Plate Day.

Some of the horses in this year’s Stakes are already great, including star gelding Apache Cat. He surprisingly disappointed in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes, but he is a much better horse than that result suggests. He also has the advantage of 5 wins on this track before. Apache Cat is currently favourite with Betfair at $4.80, some pretty juicy odds.

Lucky Secret is at $5.10. He also disappointed in the Manikato Stakes, finishing 9^th, but some quality middle distances runners such as Phelan Ready were also racing, making it hard for a sprinter. The 6 year old has an incredible record, winning 12 of his 20 starts.

This will be 3 year old Paprika’s ($6.20) first Group race, after beginning a promising career in Queensland. The filly has raced five times for four wins and a second, and now is definitely the best time for her to step her racing up to Group level. However she has not raced in Victoria yet, and if rain brings about a heavy track she may be in a bit of trouble.

Turffontein ($17.50) was another horse who failed to impress in the Manikato Stakes, but his win in the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes last month was as good as any. The Anthony Cummings trained 6 year old has not had much luck in the past, but his connections will be hoping that this is his year.

Wanted has been popular with the punters and is now at $5.80. He is very experienced at Group level for a three year old and, unlike others in this race, performed well in the Manikato Stakes, finishing fourth.

Sprint races are always open; anyone can win. However, I think it will be closely contested between Apache Cat and Lucky Secret for first place. I am not sure who will win, so stick with Apache Cat ($4.80 isn’t bad odds at all). My third tip is Paprika on the basis of her recent form. Turffontein will also provide a little value.

My Tips:

Apache Cat

Lucky Secret

Paprika

Turffontein

While the Caulfield Guineas showcases the best 3 year olds from around the country, the Yalumba Stakes shows off some of the best weight-for-age horses. Champion horses have won the race before, such as Kingston Town, Sky Heights and Lonhro. The Stakes is run over 2000m and is worth $400,000.

The favourite in this year’s race is Whobegotyou, who seems to be favourite in every race he takes part in. He is at $2.50 at the moment, and with his recent form it’s easy to see why. He won the Group 2 Dato’Tan Chin Nam Stakes last month and was a close second in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes.

However, the horse that beat him the Underwood Stakes, Heart of Dreams, is also racing, and will be looking to win again. He looked promising earlier this spell, but was unable to win until the Underwood Stakes and now looks at the peak of his form. Heart of Dreams is at $3.20, but may be a little short.

One horse with some juicier odds is Nom Du Jeu at $12.00. He is not long back from a spell, and after two seconds, should be ready to make an assault on the winner’s circle. He has been nominated for the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup. Of those the Cox Plate looks the likely target.

Douro Valley ($51 at Betfair) won this race last year, but unfortunately has gone backwards since then. He finished last in the Underwood Stakes, which shows that he is, honestly, out of his league here.

Veteran Vision and Power is at $9.00. He is yet to place in a race since April, though his form over the last few weeks is hinting at something big. He finished fourth in the Group 1 George Main Stakes, and this might be the race for him, considering he has won over the distance twice before.

I think Heart of Dreams might get the better of Whobegotyou here, but expect an epic last 400m. Vision and Power will also be there as always. For a little more value, watch out for Nom Du Jeu, who expect to shorten significantly in price for the Cox Plate if he wins this.

My Tips:

Heart of Dreams

Whobegotyou

Vision and Power

Nom Du Jeu

The third Group 1 race at Caulfield this week is the $350,000 David Jones Toorak Handicap. The race is run over 1600m, and while it is not considered to be a great lead up for the longer distance races in the carnival, traditionally winners of this race have continued to run well over the mile or up to 2000m. Past winners of this race include Poetic King, Barely a Moment and Divine Madonna.

This year’s field is a big one with lots of talent, so picking a winner will be difficult. The favourite is 6 year old Raheeb, who won last week’s Herald Sun Superstable Stakes. His two races before that had been a little lukewarm, but it looks like he’s hit form at the right time.

At $7.00 is Gold Salute, who has not raced much at Group level. He has an excellent record, but a Group 1 may be a bit too big of a step up at the moment. However, he is a good horse and is in great form, the only query is class. He also has wins over this distance and on this track.

Classy horse Raffaello is at also at $7.00. He has performed well in the start of the Carnival, finished third in the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes. Trainer Mark Kavanagh has him primed for this Spring Carnival. After a failed Autumn Carnival last year, it looked like Raffaello was set for a career in Metropolitan racing, but things have changed.

Pillar of Hercules finished third in this race last year, and looked set for a stellar racing career. However, controversy over his underworld connections and an injury to his knee saw that stellar career turn into a mediocre on. He is at $71.00 here, after finishing 11^th in the Superstable Stakes.

Rock Kingdom ($8.50) is racing on a tight schedule. He raced excellently to win the Epsom Handicap at Randwick last week, and has travelled down to Caulfield this week for the Toorak Handicap. His form is excellent; not just any old horse wins the Epsom Handicap, the only problem is that he has not raced at Caulfield, or in Melbourne before.

I think that Rock Kingdom will win, despite the fact that this will be his first race in Melbourne. Raffaello is a classy horse and will race well, and I think it is never wise to ignore the favourite, so I will put Raheeb in as my third pick. For some value take a look at Magical Pearl ($21.00 at Betfair), who finished 4^th in the Dato’Tan Chin Nam Stakes and has won 40% of his races.

My Tips:

Rock Kingdom

Raffaello

Raheeb

Magical Pearl