Sportsbet Blog

Punters have been quick to step into some short priced favourites for Saturday’s Flemington meeting with Helmet, Mosheen and Black Caviar all very popular early.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters had identified the three as good things on Saturday but he was happy to let them on. “We took bets of $10,000, $5000 and a number of $1000 and $2000 bets on Mosheen in the first few hours of putting the market up and she has shortened from $1.85 to $1.80,” Sullivan said. “Helmet was also well backed early with one punter having $16,000 and he has been rock solid at $1.75.

“Many punters are doubling Mosheen or Helmet up into Black Caviar or even taking the treble.” “I am happy to let the punters on though as Mosheen is in a high class field while Helmet does a few things wrong, isn’t great first up and probably has an eye on the Guineas and Dubai.”

is currently $1.12 with Sportingbet and Sullivan said they expected punters to step in again. “Her supporters are fiercely loyal and why wouldn’t they be after the wins she has given them and they will come for her again this week,” he said. “Dropping from 1400m to 1000m against the second best sprinter in the country means we will be taking her on again but it is becoming a very costly exercise for Sportingbet.”

Some early action has been made at Sportingbet with some massive bets placed.

Although Black Caviar is a very short priced favourite for this Saturdays race the punters haven’t backed off with a number of big bets including a bet of $25,000 paying 1.28 placed earlier this week.

With Black Caviar likely to shorten even further by the start of the race sometimes it pays to get in early, so make sure you Sportingbet account today and claim $150 in free bets just for depositing $30!

Flemington
Black Caviar $25,000 @ $1.28, $16,000 @ $1.28, $15,000 @ $1.25, $12,000 @ $1.25, $10,000 @ 1.25
Pontiana $4000 @ $15
Brazilian Pulse $4400 @ $5
Whobegotyou $11,000 @ $1.85, $6000 @ $1.80, $5000 @ $1.80
Undeniably $4700 @ $2.50

Warwick Farm
Ilovethiscity $7000 @ $2.40, $5000 @ $2.50

Punters who think mighty mare Black Caviar can be beaten in Saturday’s Newmarket Handicap can receive double the odds on every other horse in the race with Sportsbet.
This means Black Caviar’s nearest rival in betting, Hay List, is paying a whopping $23 with Sportsbet!
Black Caviar (who is more inviting as the real black caviar pictured right) is aiming to keep her unbeaten record intact and priced at just $1.25.
“We think Black Caviar is just about unbeatable in the Newmarket, so much so that we’re offering double the odds on every other horse in the race,” said Sportsbet’s Haydn Lane.
“Anyone who thinks she can be beaten is more than welcome to take her on.
“She mightn’t have it all her own way with the weight swing from the Lightning Stakes but we believe she’s more than up to the task.”

Sportsbet is offering money-back specials on every group race in Australia until the Sydney Cup – over 100 races in total. Simply back any horse and get your money back if it runs second to the SP favourite.

Sportsbet is also paying best-tote exotics (quinella, exacta, trifecta and first four) on every group race in Australia until the Sydney Cup. For full details, please visit the Sportsbet site.

Sportsbet are also offering new members a $200 free bet that can be used on this weekends Newmarket Handicap. Checkout Sportsbet here for more details on this offer.

*UPDATE In more Black Caviar news, Sportsbet have just opened the winning Black Caviar length market.

$4.20 is on offer about the mighty mare winning by more than four lengths, while $3.80 is on offer about any other horse in the race bringing an end to Black Caviar’s unbeaten run.
For those who want to back another horse but think they can’t overcome the superstar, sportsbet.com.au has opened a market with Black Caviar out. In this market, Hay List and Star Witness head the betting at $3.80 each.
“There has been a little bit of support for Star Witness but the overwhelming majority of money has not surprisingly been on Black Caviar,” said Sportsbet’s Haydn Lane.

Market courtesy of Sportsbet
2011 Newmarket Handicap
$1.25 Black Caviar
$23 Hay List
$26 Star Witness
$41 Beaded, Response
$51 Eagle Falls, Hinchinbrook
$101 Crystal Lily
$121 Chasm, Grand Duels
$151 King Pulse
$601 Snapparazi

A superb day’s racing at Flemington with seven Group races, three of them at the highest level.

The Australian Cup (Race 7) looks to be en even race with no stand-out WFA performer. Sportsbet’s traders are happy to take on favourite Heart of Dreams.

He had it all his way out in front in the St George Stakes and that is not likely to happen again and he is still a query at the 2000 metres.  Shocking is terrific value at $8.50. Loves Flemington and third up has been set for this race.

Bart Cummings has a good record in this race so look for Precedence to be in the finish. On this day last year he won a 2000 metre race by 7 lengths. Like Shocking and Precedence, Linton will also appreciate the big Flemington track and the addition of blinkers first time is a key gear change.

Alcopop looms as the best ‘roughie’ in the race after returning to form winning the Kilmore Cup. Playing God is a risk as he is not up to this class as yet.

Heart Of Dreams $4.40, Moudre $6.50, Precedence $6.50, Linton $7.00, Shocking $7.50, Playing God $12.00, Alcopop $15, Others $15.00 and above.

History will be made in the Newmarket Handicap (Race 6) when Black Caviar becomes the first horse in Australian racing to win its first ten starts.

Despite the 58 kg something would have to go terribly wrong for her not to win. Most trainers have conceded they are running for second, however, Sportsbet are confident that Star Witness will run the quinella and Hay List will fill the placings.

Star Witness got closest to the ‘great mare’ in the spring, while Hay List has done nothing wrong. Best ‘roughie’ is Beaded who was fantastic first up and is proven down the straight running second to Whitefriars in the Salinger Stakes last time in. Our traders are so confident that Sportsbet is offering double the odds on all horses except Black Caviar.

Black Caviar $1.28, Star Witness $19.00, Hay List $23.00, Beaded $31.00, Hinchinbrook $41.00, Response $51.00, Eagle Falls $51.00,  Others $101.00 and above.

Race Four is the Group Two Blamey Stakes and Sportsbet are very confident that this race belongs to Whobegotyou. He flew first up, is a proven Group One horse and at the set weights and penalties is a ‘good thing’.

The race looks to be a simple quinella race with Dao Dao,  Whobegotyou’s only danger. He meets him 3kg better than the Futurity Stakes and ran third as favourite in this race last year. Spacecraft and Doubtful Jack will both get good runs on the pace but there is still a doubt over Doubtful Jack on a firm track. An easy race for punters around the top two picks.

Whobegotyou $1.80, Dao Dao $4.20, Spacecraft $6.50, Doubtful Jack $10, Roadtrain $19.00, Rockpecker $31.00, Fanjura $31.00, Others $41.00 & Above.

The Kewney Stakes (Race 5) is a much better race for punters with top trainer Peter Moody the key to the race. He has four runners in the race with three of them set to go to the front and race on the speed.

Sayahailmary should lead with Do Ra Mi sitting outside of it and Zelsnitz getting a nice run in behind them. Our traders expect both Do Ra Mi and Zelsnitz to be in the placings, however, they think Lee Freedman will spoil the party with Ain’tnofallenstar. The filly was brilliant in Adelaide and will be even better at Flemington.

The kiwi Twilight Savings is the best ‘roughie’ in the race. She has good form at home behind the talented Jimmy Choux and is drawn to get a better run than when she resumed at the ‘Valley’. Brazilian Pulse first up against fitter horses is a ‘lay’ even though she is the best filly in the race.

Brazilian Pulse $5.5o , Ain’tnofallenstar $6.50, Do Ra Mi $7.00, Zelsnitz $8.00, Divorces $8.00, Twilight Savings $9.00, Sayahailmary $9.00, Others $11.00 & Above.

Flemington Snapshot
Best Bet: Undeniably (Down in grade and well placed)
Best Roughie: Alcopop
Lay of the day: Heart Of Dreams
Tap on the Shoulder: Star Witness at $3.80 in favourite out betting is the way to go in the Newmarket.

Betting for the Group 1 William Reid Stakes has been turned on its head following the scratching of hot favourite Black Caviar reports IASbet John Hartnett.

“It’s a wide open race now without the champion filly,” said Hartnett. “The three place getters of the Lightning Stakes are now the top three in the market in Nicconi ($5.50 into $3.20), Wanted ($6.50 into $3.40), and Shellscrape ($11.00 into $4.50).”

“I think Shellscrape finds his right race here. He hasn’t raced at the Valley, although he is very suited to the 1200m and he likes the cut out of the ground.”

IASbet has a range of head to head markets available on the William Reid Stakes, including Nicconi ($1.80) vs Wanted ($1.90), Shellscrape ($1.70) vs Light Fantastic ($2.15), Turffontein ($1.70) vs Sniper’s Bullet ($2.15), and Master O’Reilly ($2.75) vs Mentality ($1.45).

IASbet will also give you a $100 free bet when using the promo code SBLOG100 when making a new account. Simply make $50 worth of bets and the $100 free bet will be deposited into your account.

Checkout the IASbet site here for more info and to signup to this great offer.

The Group 2 Danehill Stakes, run over 1200m, is an exciting part of 3 year old racing this spring. The future for Australian racing looks bright, with names like Manhattan Rain, Delago Bolt and Rostova sure to feature in years to come.  The race has usually been won by a handy three year old, such as Tan Tat de Lago and last year’s winner, Aichi, rather than a big name horse.

Filly Rostova is also racing, and will be trying to improve on a disappointing sixth at Caulfield a few races ago. She has won one Group 2 before, but has not placed in her two starts over this distance. She is right out to around $11 with Betfair, and worth a dip.

Black Caviar is untried at group level, but has won all of his three races, including the listed Arrow Training Services Plate two weeks ago, over filly Miraculous Miss, who is also racing in the Danehill Stakes. He is currently at very short odds at $1.75, and deserves to be, but there are other horses that could snatch the win from him.

One of these is Manhattan Rain. The second favourite at $8.00, he has raced in three Group 1’s for a first and two thirds, and has hardly put a foot wrong it his lead up. The only possible worry could be is that he has not raced in Melbourne before, but even that is minor.

I’m hoping Delago Bolt can shake off some recent bad form and return to how he was racing at the start of this year, with a win in the Group 2 Black Opal Stakes. He’s at a tentative $17, but if you’re a risk-taker, might be worth an each-way bet for a nice return.

Gelding Tollesprit may be inexperienced compared to other horses in the race, but you can hardly fault his racing so far. He finished second in his first group race last week, and looks set for bigger things in the future.

Now for my tips. I’m playing safe and going with Black Caviar, but it’s an open race from there. Manhattan Rain’s form is too good to ignore, and I also like Rarefied, winner of the Up and Coming Stakes. Another one to put into your box trifecta, and a horse I’m really excited about is Tollesprit.

Betfair is the play to go for betting on horse racing this spring, they have 20% better odds than the tote and they also let you place lay bets on horses that you think wont win the race!

My Tips:

1st. Black Caviar

2nd. Manhattan Rain

3rd. Rarefied

4th. Tollesprit