Sportsbet Blog

This Saturday’s Group 2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes may be a bit of a mouthful, but it will be mentioned many times, as it is one of the biggest lead up races for later in the spring. Traditionally, the 1600m Stakes has been a great guide for the WS Cox Plate, with 8 of the past 9 winners of the Plate coming in the top three in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes.

The horses in this year’s race will certainly be hoping to continue the trend, with all but two of the racers nominated for the Cox Plate. One of these horses is Jolie’s Shinju ($7.50 with Betfair). The Japanese raider has been nominated for the three big races this spring, but this might just be a warm up race for her. She has won several prestigious races in Singapore, including the Group 1 Emirates Singapore Derby.

The current favourite for the Cox Plate, Whobegotyou ($2.90), will probably start favourite here, and deservedly so. He has finished second in his past two starts, and this should be the perfect race to start a winning streak that could continue until the Cox Plate.

El Segundo ($4.00) won this race in 2007, and then went on to win the Cox Plate. He’ll be back for more on Saturday, and if he wins this race, expect him to become the clear favourite to win a second Cox Plate. He will need to overcome some recent bad form, however; he has not won since the 2007 Cox Plate.

Mic Mac ($3.60) possibly has the best form leading into this race. The 4 year old gelding has only lost one of his 8 races so far. He has won his past two since coming off a spell, including the Group 2 Memsie Stakes, which he won over several horses in this race, including Whobegotyou, El Segundo and Efficient.

I think Mic Mac’s form is too hard to ignore, but he will be strongly challenged by Whobegotyou. I think a quinella on those two will prove a good bet, and throw El Segundo in to make a fairly strong Trifecta. I’d love to see those three battling out in the Cox Plate. My fourth bet is Jolie’s Shinju, though I think her owners will not be too concerned with this race.

My Tips:

Mic Mac

Whobegotyou

El Segundo

Jolie’s Shinju

Saturday’s Group 2 Theo Marks Stakes, run over 1400m, is one of the more even races this weekend. Very few in the field of 11 are not legitimate chances, and there is not one clear favourite. The race is worth a nice $200,000, but most horses will be looking further ahead to the Group 1 Epsom Handicap to be held at Randwick on October 3.

Triple Honour, who finished third in last week’s Chelmsford Stakes, is one of the three horses battling for favouritism with Betfair, and is currently winning the race at $4.40. The five year old is a veteran of Group races, but his record in them is less than wonderful.

Another short priced horse is Racing to Win ($5.00), who has overcome past injuries to be at his peak for this spring. The gelding had a reasonable first-up race in the Warwick Stakes, but is now looking to improve and move on to the Epsom Handicap or the Cox Plate.

There isn’t a great deal of value to be found in this small field, but it’s worth having a look at Mentality, who is at $13.00. He was fantastic when he won the Premiere Stakes last month, but took a step backwards when he finished ninth in the Group 3 Tramway Handicap. However, if he can regain some form, he should prove some very good value.

I was a little shocked to see Mr Baritone ($6.50) in the top three in the Warwick Stakes a few weeks ago; I had though he was well past his prime. However, he looks set to have another (possibly his last) crack at the Sydney Spring Carnival, and is at $6.50 here. He still has a little way to go before convincing me, but he is one to watch for in this race.

This will be the first race for Rock Kingdom, who is nominated for both the Cox Plate and Epsom Handicap, since coming 9^th in the AJC Australian Derby in April. He has had some excellent form this autumn though, and could easily win this race.

I think Rock Kingdom will win this race, but Triple Honour and Racing to Win will not be far behind him. If you’re looking for a little value, Mentality is the way to go. With such an even field, you’re going to need a pretty open box trifecta.

My Tips:

Rock Kingdom

Triple Honour

Racing to Win

Mentality

We are now down to round 26 and is the last round of the 2009 NRL season. It is setting up to be a good one as the last couple of finals positions are still up for grabs.

The top teams will be looking for big wins to make their presence felt, while the bottom teams will be trying to upset whoever they can. At the end of the day, no-one wants to lose this week whether they are bottom or top of the NRL ladder.

The odds that are listed below are from BetFair. NRL betting is best at BetFair with a wide range to choose from including winning margin and first try. Check out our review of BetFair Here.

My Round 26 tips are as follows.

Friday September 4^th @ 7.35pm

St. George Illawarra vs. Parramatta Eels

It is my belief that this will be a very close match. The dragons have not been in the best of form lately and the Parramatta Eels could most certainly use the win. With the NRL finals so close both teams will be giving it their all.

My Prediction – St. George Illawarra by less than 12.5 points with odds of $2.90 @ BetFair

Friday September 4^th @ 7.35pm

West Tigers vs. Bulldogs

The Bulldogs shouldn’t have too much trouble here, but the West Tigers will be fighting hard. With the Tigers having an outside chance of making the finals it could turn into a thriller of a match.

My Tip – Bulldogs by less than 12.5 points with odds of $2.40 @ BetFair

Saturday September 5^th @ 7.30pm

Manly Sea Eagles vs. Gold Coast Titans

The Manley Sea Eagles will be playing for a top 4 finish here as they currently sit in 5^th place on the NRL ladder. The Gold Coast Titans can’t fall below third place will only really need to find some nice form for the finals. It should be a close match-up.

My Tip –Manley Sea Eagles by less than 12.5 points with odds of $2.20 @ BetFair

Saturday September 5^th @ 7.30pm

Cronulla Sharks vs. South Sydney

Both teams have nothing to lose here. However, the Sharks may end up with the wooden spoon if they don’t take the points. South Sydney’s season is already over with no chance of making the NRL finals.

My Tip – South Sydney with odds of $1.54 @ BetFair

Saturday September 5^th @ 7.30pm

New Zealand Warriors vs. Melbourne Storm

The Melbourne Storm should be able to run all over the Warriors in this round 26 match. The Warriors are sitting pretty way down in 14^th place while the Melbourne Storm will be playing to hold their top 4 position.

My Tip – Melbourne Storm with odds of $1.42 @ BetFair

Sunday September 6^th @ 2pm

Sydney Roosters vs. North Queensland Cowboys

Similar to the Rabbitohs vs. Sharks game, this one probably won’t be very interesting. The Roosters will be trying to take the win to avoid the wooden spoon however and could be worth watching.

My Tip – North Queensland Cowboys by less than 12.5 points with odds of $2.20 @ BetFair

Sunday September 6^th @ 3pm

Newcastle Knights vs. Penrith Panthers

This will be the match of the round in my opinion. With the two teams sitting in 8^th & 9^th respectively, the loser of this clash will not play finals. Although it is my feeling that the Knights will get up in the end, it should be a very close match.

My Tip – Newcastle Knights with odds of $1.59 @ BetFair

Sunday September 6^th @ 7pm

Canberra Raiders vs. Brisbane Broncos

While the Raiders are sitting down in 13^th place with no chance of a finals birth, Brisbane will be playing for a shot at the top 4. Currently in sixth place, they are only one point behind 4^th placed Melbourne Storm and will be giving it their all to take this top 4 place from them.

My Tip – Brisbane Broncos with odds of $1.34 @ BetFair

The Bulldogs are currently paying $1.22 for the regular season win which is almost a sure fire bet and they are also tipped to take home the NRL Premiership with odds of $4.90. St. George Illawarra has odds of $5.10 for the NRL Premiership.

My tip for the 2009 NRL Wooden Spoon is the Sydney Roosters paying $1.26. Cronulla is paying odds of $3.30.

BetFair also has many other options for betting on the NRL and you should head along now, set-up your account and prepare to win some money before the end of the 2009 NRL season.

There are now only two rounds to be played in the 2009 home and away season for the NRL and the fight is on for the remaining top 8 positions. For a number of teams, the next 2 weeks are either do or die with the close of competition drawing nearer.

No-one will really want to lose in this weekend round 25 games and all the teams will be looking for good form to finish the season with. Those teams who simply can’t find it will not last long in the NRL finals.

All the following odds are from BetFair. Betfair is the best when it comes to NRL betting and they allow bets to be placed in a few different ways including what the winning margin will be and first scoring play. For more information about what BetFair has to offer, check out our review here.

My Round 24 tips are as follows.

Friday August 28^th @ 7.35pm

North Queensland Cowboys vs. Brisbane Broncos

One of many games this round that will help shape the NRL finals. The Broncos are currently in 7^th place with 28 points while the Cowboys are 11^th with 24 points. A hard one to call, but I believe that the Brisbane Broncos will take home the win and secure their finals position.

My Prediction is – Brisbane Broncos with odds of $1.45 @ BetFair

Friday August 28^th @ 7.35pm

Parramatta Eels vs. Penrith Panthers

With the Panthers sitting in 8^th position and the Eels in 9^th, this is bound to be a great game. Both teams are currently tied on points and both want to play in the NRL finals. I believe that the Eels will get up in the end and possibly run away with it.

My Tip – Parramatta Eels ($1.42 @ BetFair)

Saturday August 29^th @ 5.30pm

Gold Coast Titans vs. West Tigers

Although I believe the Titans will be too good in this match-up, I do believe that the West Tigers will give them a run for their money. The West Tigers need a win here if they are to have any chance of playing in the finals.

My Tip – Gold Coast Titans ($1.40 @ BetFair)

Saturday August 29^th @ 7.30pm

Melbourne Storm vs. Sydney Roosters

Melbourne Storm is yet another team that could definitely use a win. Currently sitting in fourth place on the ladder, the Storm would like to keep it that way. Meanwhile the Roosters are sitting in last place and will simply be awaiting the season end.

My Tip – Melbourne Storm ($1.13 @ BetFair)

Saturday August 29^th @ 2pm

South Sydney vs. St. George Illawarra

After losing their last 2 games, the Dragons really need to do something here. Since they are up against the struggling Rabbitohs, St. George Illawarra should have no trouble in maintaining their number one position on the NRL ladder.

My Tip – St. George Illawarra ($1.19 @ BetFair)

Sunday August 30^th @ 2pm

Manly Sea Eagles vs. Cronulla Sharks

The great Sea Eagles will be flying high in this match. Faced with the possibility of losing their top 8 position, they will be looking for nothing but a win. Against the likes of Cronulla, I am 100% sure that they will have no trouble taking the win.

My Tip – Manly Sea Eagles ($1.11 @ BetFair)

Sunday August 30^th @ 3pm

Bulldogs vs. New Zealand Warriors

In my opinion the Bulldogs have this one in the bag. New Zealand has very little left to play for while the Bulldogs have a great opportunity to seize top position on the ladder. I cannot see the Warriors winning this match, even if the Bulldogs stay home.

My Tip – Bulldogs ($1.22 @ BetFair)

Monday August 31^st @ 7pm

Canberra Raiders vs. Newcastle Knights

Set to be an excellent game on Monday night. This game will be a fight to the finish as both teams will be pushing hard for victory. The Newcastle Knights will be looking for the win to maintain their top 8 position; meanwhile the Raiders will be looking to take it away from them.

I’m Tipping – Canberra Raiders ($2 @ BetFair)

Betfair is the brain child of Andrew Black and Edward Wray. Together the two helped develop unique betting technology and in August 1999 Betfair was born. Since then the company has expanded from the UK and now has liscences in Malta, Italy, Austria, Germany and now here in Australia.

Betfair have built themselves up to be one of the market leaders in internet betting due innovations that simply can’t be found on any other site.

Back or Lay

The “back” or “lay” system allows you to bet on two outcomes winning or losing. When you “back” a selection (be it an individual, a team, horse or dog) you are betting that it will win. This is called traditional betting.

When you ”lay” a selection you are betting against it winning. For example, if you’re betting on which team is going to win the Premiership and you ”lay” Man Utd, if they end up winning the league you pay out. This is something that is usually only done between bookmakers, but Betfair gives you the opportunity to do it with other punters.

Choose you own odds

One of the great things about the “back” or “lay” system is that it allows you to choose your own odds. If a horse you fancy is showing odds of $3.00, you can put an order in for $4.00, and if someone is willing to “lay” off against that bet then those are the odds you get. The thing with this is to not be greedy. Choose realistic odds or you are likely to miss out all together.

In play betting

Another of Betfair’s great initiatives is its in play betting service. This allows you to bet on a number of out things within most sports as they are taking place. This includes sports like baseball, darts (yes you can even bet on the fat guys chucking things at a small circle while drinking their weight in beer) and cycling. Lance Armstrong is at $8.00 to win his eighth Tour De France by the way.

The Betfair website also offers a comprehensive guide and results system. Showing stats on trainers, jockeys and horses as well as the Betfair TV guide so that you will never miss your favourite sporting event ever again. They have even introduced a hotline. So if there is no way of making it to the internet you can give them a call and still get your bet in.

Betfair is easily one of the best betting websites around as it offers unrivaled features, and if you sign you up right now you are entitled to a free $50 bet. Just go to the site to claim it, but make sure you stick it all on the Aussies winning the Twenty20 World Cup, at $4.50 you can’t go wrong.

The tender for the 2012 Victorian Government betting licence is heating up with confidential tenders submitted to the government.

The new outlines for Victorian betting licence have been released and will no doubt shake the gambling industry considerably with betting exchanges and massive tax cuts to entice hype and competition for the betting license.

Betting exchange will be allowed to operate in Victoria formerly only allowed in Tasmania and Betfair (the world’s biggest and leading betting exchange) has already announced that it has not submit a tender for the betting licence. But they say they are very keen to operate a betting exchange in Victoria for the new licence holder. Instead of the usual TAB style outlets Betfair may essentially have the ability to open betting exchange outlets around Victoria. This alone could change the face dramatically on how we currently place bets in Victoria.

There will also be tax cuts to betting of 60% which is a staggering 1 billion dollars over the 12 year life of the licence which will be held by the new company. This will most likely see much better odds to the end user and the ability to match or beat the corporate bookmakers at their own game.

There are a few companies that have announced that they are interested. Tatts who currently own Unitab are trying to continue their Tote dominance around Australia including the upcoming Tasmanian Tote licence. Intralot the new lotto licence holder have said that they have submitted a tender and Irish gaming giant Paddy Power have also announced that they too have lodged a bid. The TAB was reluctant to comment if they had made a bid to the Government but are very likely to want to continue what has been a very profitable business for them. With big international companies bidding it may make it difficult for Tatts and Tabcorp to compete with the amount of push these companies have and may see the tender go off shore.

Whoever wins the licence will be paying a fortune for the privilege and the winners out of all this will be the gambling public. This will give people many more options over the phone, internet and outlets with a much better return than the previous TAB system.
It will be an interesting time for the Victorian gaming industry and the rest of Australia will be taking notes and no doubt will follow the lead of Victoria in years to come as the competition increases between bookmakers and the Tote.
For more information on Betfair and how betting exchanges work check out the Betfair website.