Sportsbet Blog

Round 18 will hopefully be a more successful week for us in the footy tipping with a few less upsets.

There isn’t any clear game of the round this  week but I think the Carlton V Collingwood game will once again live up to standards and be the most entertaining. The Pies can all but end Carlton’s season with a win here where Carlton has the chance to spoil the near perfect season for Collingwood and maybe start their demise in 2010, fingers crossed!

Best Bet for Round 18

This week I’m taking a simple Freo win bet, although at 1.42 it is pretty short but they are very likely to win the match.

Another great bet for this round is a straight out Richmond win at 2.44. A great way to ensure this win is to take up the new offer that Betfair has. Simply place your first bet with them and if it loses Betfair will refund that amount up to $50 cash.

Checkout the Betfair site for more info on this new offer.

Essendon V St Kilda Friday night at Etihad Stadium

Tip: St Kilda

Odds: Essendon 5.60 St Kilda 1.21

St Kilda will be out to reverse the result from earlier this season and get the win over Essendon. They also have the incentive of a top 4 spot as the teams below start to threaten. Both these points and the fact they are a much stronger and tight knit team will see them get over the line.

The even $2.00 line bet for Essendon is a 28.5 point head start. I think there’s plenty of value for them in this market as its likely St Kilda will try to put the freeze on for majority of the match.

Collingwood V Carlton Saturday at the MCG

Tip: Collingwood

Odds: Collingwood 1.21 Carlton 5.60

The Pies are very hard to exploit with a evenness across the whole team. This will be the biggest struggle for Carlton who have a few weaknesses around the ground.

My prediction is the Pies by 30 points. They will be out to extend their percentage to stop any chance of the other teams with a draw (St Kilda/Hawthorn) finishing above them.

Port Adelaide V Hawthorn Saturday at AAMI Stadium

Tip: Hawthorn

Odds: Port 3.40 Hawks: 1.39

The Hawks need to win majority of their games for the rest of the season to have any real chance in 2010 especially teams out of the top 8. The pretty much full strength Hawks should easily over come any Port Adelaide rally and get the win.

Keep an eye on Shaun Burgoyne, its his first game at AAMI Stadium since leaving SA and will be out to silence the crowd. I’m sure the Port boys will let him know they are there too.

Brisbane V Melbourne Saturday night at the Gabba

Tip: Brisbane

Odds: Brisbane 1.90 Melbourne 2.04

This is a true test for the Lions who have gone from top 4 form at the start of the season to be out of the 8 now. They should have the edge over Melbourne playing at home that should just get them over the line.

Melbourne will be confident of getting the result with Brad Green and James Frawley in All-Australian contention this year but I think the Lions in a close one.

Sydney V Geelong Saturday night at ANZ Stadium

Tip: Geelong

Odds: Sydney 4.90 Geelong: 1.25

Sydney have had a disappointing last month and I predict this to continue into this game.

Geelong has a full strength side and need to continue to win to regain the important 1st position on the ladder from Collingwood. This should give them the motivation to play the game out well.

Richmond V Adelaide Sunday at the MCG

Tip: Richmond

Odds: Richmond 2.44 Adelaide 1.68

Although the bookies think otherwise I expect Richmond to take the 4 points at the MCG.

They were up against it last week against the Pies but playing the Crows at the “G” will be a much better match up for them. The Tigers will have the belief they can win again as they did last month when they played some great football.

For those unsure if the Tigers can do it take the 7.5 point head start paying 2.00 at Betfair here.

Western Bulldogs V North Melbourne Sunday at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Bulldogs

Odds: Bulldogs 1.20 North 5.50

North will need to take risks this weekend to get over the Bulldogs and this is where it will come undone for them. They have been too inconsistent this year and will struggle with the Bulldogs run though the midfield.

The Bulldogs are great on the turn overs and will catch the Kangaroos out enough times to get  a comfortable win.

Bulldogs by 40 points.

Fremantle V West Coast Sunday at Subiaco Oval

Tip: Fremantle

Odds: Fremantle 1.42 West Coast 3.35

The Dockers will bounce back after a 82 point loss last week and be too good for the Eagles who will struggle with the run and carry of their opposition.

Chris Tarrant , Kepler Bradley and David Mundy are all expected to return to the Freo side and will make a massive difference to the way they go about it.

If you looking for a bet on this game I like Freo at the -22.5 point even $2 line. I think they will easily cover the points for us Sunday arvo.

Online bookies could lose hundreds of thousands of dollars after numerous bets being placed this morning just before Melbourne Storm and the NRL announced the salary cap infringements.

Not only have Melbourne Storm lose their two premierships but all points in the 2010 season handing them the wooden spoon after only six rounds.

Online bookmaker Sportingbet took several bets at 250-1 with some punters set to win $10,000 from each bet

“We took three bets to win $10,000 and another to win $8000 for the Storm to win the wooden spoon all within 10 minutes of each other this morning,” Sportingbet Australia spokesman Bill Richmond said.

“You don’t take a series of bets like that unless someone knows something and we have suspended betting on the wooden spoon as a result.”

“Melbourne is now our worst result for the wooden spoon despite the fact they are premiership favourites.”

The TAB also took a $200 bet for Storm to take the wooden spoon the night before the announcement at the odds of $200-1 with a massive $40,000 payout. Before suspending the market the TAB received further bets that morning.

Another major online bookmaker IASbet took “farily odd” bets on the wooden spoon and have suspended betting and waiting out the storm to see what results from it all.

Australia’s only betting exchange Betfair also was hit with wooden spoon bets before the rumour become fact with Betfair spokesman Hugh Taggart saying that his agency would not void a market based on hearsay and rumour, and it would take advice from the NRL for Betfair to stop the public betting on the market.

“We would only avoid a market in an extreme circumstance.”

“Punters always bet on rumour and innuendo.”

“Our markets will be dictated by what happens in the public domain.”

It has been a very messy day for the NRL and the bookies have been cough up in the middle of it. I can’t see the bookies accepting these bets I think a refund will be given to clients that put bets on 24 hours before the announcement.

Where it could get messy is the Melbourne premiership betting. Do the bookies keep the bets or will refunds be given out. It will very interesting to see which bookmakers makes the first move with the others likely to follow suit.

Keep one eye on the telecast, and the other on Betfair, and make the most of Betfair’s dynamic markets. They’ll be open from when the referee blows his whistle until, well… he blows it again at the end. With opportunities every second, that’s over 54,000 seconds (plus injury time) of opportunities.

Betfair are accepting in-play bets on heaps of sports this summer including the Australian Open tennis, the Australian Summer of cricket and A-League soccer.

As well as having the largest market of in-play bets Betfair also have a summer promo giving you the chance to win Apple Ipods, XBox 360′s and Free Bets just for betting with Betfair!

Betting during a match is easy. Simply make an account at the Betfair website here, then call 1800 TELBET (that’s 1800 835 238) 24 hours a day, seven days a week, to speak to one of their efficient betting staff and place your in-play bet.

For more info on how Betfair works and how to get your hands on a prize checkout their website here or see our Betfair Review.

Cricket season is upon us, and it is time for Australia’s first international test of the summer. The first test of the series against the West Indies, held at the Gabba, has been proclaimed a “walkover.” On paper the Australian team quite easily outranks the West Indian, but you can never judge a match just by statistics. The weather looks excellent in Brisbane, so you can definitely expect a result from the match, and while that is most likely an Australian win, there are plenty of other things to bet on.

Betfair has a huge range of betting options – from top scores to the day when the test match will finish, to the amount of runs scored in the opening partnership. You won’t be bored watching the test, and there are plenty of good value bets.

Australia is $1.27 with Betfair to win the test, while the West Indies are right out at $15.50. The Australian odds are too short for a hobby punter like me, though expect them to be snapped up by many.

There are also odds for the top scorer for each team. For the first innings, Ricky Ponting is favourite in the Australian camp at $4.20, but the two I’m looking at are Shane Watson and Mike Hussey. Both are at $6.00, and both are top-quality batsmen. Watson has been batting well, and Hussey, despite calls for him to resign earlier in the year, has hit some good form in the One Day form of the game. They are both at $3.00 to score a century.

The West Indian team is harder to judge, so I’d stay away from betting on the top scorer unless you are feeling confident. Shivnarine Chanderpaul is at $4.10, while all-rounder Dwayne Bravo provides some value at $7.40.

It’s tough to tell on what day a test match will finish, but there are juicy odds if you can tell. The odds for the test to finish on Day 1, 2, or 3 are $2.50, while the favoured session is the Afternoon of Day 5 at $2.12. I like Day 4’s odds. Each session is at $5.10, and while it is difficult to pick a particular session, I think the Afternoon is looking the most likely.

There are a few things that stick out in my mind as good bets. The first is Shane Watson as top scorer for Australia at $6.00. The second, perhaps a little hopeful, is that the West Indies’ opening partnership will score more than Australia at $2.32. The third is the $2.02 for Watson to score more than Simon Katich.

As the Spring Carnival draws to an end, there is one race day left that should not go unnoticed. There will be several top-class races at Sandown this Saturday, and the Group 2 Sandown Guineas, run over 1600m, is no exception. A handicapped race for 3 year olds, the Guineas has long been known as the race for those too weak to win at Flemington, but you can be sure that only quality horses make it into this race. Some quality horses to have won in the past include King Ivor, Binding, Schilling and Caymans.

This year’s horses include Kidnapped, who has won at Group level before. While he may not be quite to the standard of some other 3 year olds, like those who raced in the Victoria Derby, he is a classy gelding who might progress to Group 1 level next year. His form has been good; he won the Group 3 Inglis Carbine Club Stakes at Flemington on Derby Day. Kidnapped is favourite with Betfair at $2.75

Turf Express ($12.00) has also won at Flemington last start, in the listed Myer Spring Fashion Stakes last week. The Gai Waterhouse-trained colt is used to life in Sydney, but his win at Flemington proves he can race here as well. This will be his first Group race, and he has not won at this distance before, but he is still a chance.

Majestic Music ($5.00) is experienced for a three year old. The filly has won at Group level before, and has to be one of the favoured horses here. She wasn’t good enough in the Thousand Guineas, finishing seventh, but she backed up impressively with a win in the Lexus Hybrid Plate on Melbourne Cup Day. Her experience and form has to put her in the top three here.

I am going for Majestic Music here. Kidnapped has form at Group level, so I’ll put him here as well. Khas Kura ($4.40) has been racing well at a lower level, and for a little value, look at It’llbefantastic at $16.00

MY TIPS:

Majestic Music

Kidnapped

Khas Kura

It’llbefantastic

While the main attraction is over for this spring, Flemington’s Carnival finishes of with a bang with the one and a half million dollar Group 1 Emirates Stakes. It will also be family day, with lots of entertainment for adults and kids alike. The Emirates Stakes is run over 1600m, and it showcases some of the best handicap racing horses. Previous winners of the race include Better Loosen Up, Shaftesbury Avenue, Testa Rossa and Tears I Cry.

Favourite for this year’s race is 3 year old Cox Plate winner So You Think. He is clearly favourite with Betfair at $3.35, and even then they are probably going to be the best odds you’ll find for him. His form has been good – he won a Group 3 and finishing 5^th in the Caulfield Guineas before winning the Cox Plate. He has raced at this distance before; the only query is the track, and even then only if it rains.

Gold Salute is next best at $8.60. He has not raced for nearly a month, but his second in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap was very impressive. His form before that was also very good, although not at a standard similar to this. He has won on this track and over this distance before, though 1600m is at about the edge of his capacities, as he prefers races between 1200 and 1400m.

4 year old Eagle Falls ($15.50) has been impressive this spring. He started off racing in, and winning, some handicap races in August, then moved onto a few Group races, where he didn’t have much luck, but still impressed. He finally managed to win a Group race last weekend in the Group 2 Salinger Stakes on this track. Although his form is good, he has not won a race further than 1200m before.

Vigor ($11.50) was very unlucky to miss out on a spot in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday, but he is here to try and salvage something from his Spring Carnival. He won the Group 2 Makybe Diva Stakes back in September and finished 3^rd in the Caulfield Cup, but his owners and his trainer Danny O’Brien will be hoping he can win a Group 1 race, even if it is a few days later in the carnival than they had hoped.

This is a tough race to pick, and I will go with So You Think, though he is not as safe as his odds sound. Gold Salute and Vigor will be there, and Eagle Falls is some good value considering other competitors have him at as low as $10 – so make sure you get on at Betfair.

MY TIPS:

So You Think

Gold Salute

Vigor

Eagle Falls

The Group 1 Patinack Farm Classic, held annually on Emirates Stakes Day, is worth $500,000. It is run straight down the track at Flemington, with no turns over the 1200m, meaning it is a true test of speed. It is one of the best races in the Carnival for sprinters, and is generally considered the next race for performers in the Group1 Coolmore Stud Stakes of Derby Day. Previous winners of the race include Hareeba, Takeover Target, Dance Hero and Miss Andretti.

All Silent is the favourite for this year’s race with Betfair at $4.30. Interestingly, he won the main race on this day, the Emirates Stakes, last year. He has only raced once this spring, when he won the Group 2 Gilgai Stakes first-up over similar conditions to this. He is a bit short for my liking, considering the horses that he is up against.

Apache Cat is in an unfamiliar position – one where he is not the favourite! He probably should deserve favouritism, considering his effort in the Group 2 Schweppes Stakes on Cox Plate Day when he beat arch-rival Mic Mac. He is at $4.80, which are excellent odds considering the Cat’s form and history.

Mic Mac is right out at $7. He has been racing well this Spring, taking out two wins and two second places out of his 5 starts. He is every bit as good as Apache Cat, but without a little luck he has faded into the background. I’m definitely hoping that he can get one over the Cat, but only time will tell.

Nicconi ($5.10) hasn’t raced since September, but his 3^rd in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes on a slow track was impressive, as was his win in the Group 3 McEwen Stakes before that. Interestingly, he has not won over this distance before, preferring the shorter 1000m. He will race well here, but it will take a lot to win considering he hasn’t raced for over a month.

Picking a winner in this field of stars is going to be difficult. I’m going with Apache Cat, but he’s going to have his work cut out for him. All Silent and Mic Mac are my next to tips. Last year’s winner Turffontein, who finished second in the Group 2 Salinger Stakes last Saturday, provides some value at $17, though you get the feeling the 1200m might be a bit short for him.

MY TIPS:

Apache Cat

All Silent

Mic Mac

Turffontein

It’s finally here. After all our waiting, the “race that stops the nation” has arrived. The Group 1 Melbourne Cup at Flemington is like no other race in the world. Run over 2 miles (3200m), it boasts an astonishing 5.5 million dollars. A huge field of 24 makes tipping a winner as hard as it gets, but that doesn’t stop millions of Australians from taking a punt. Those millions will be stuffed into their local TABs today and tomorrow, so take the smart option and bet online with Betfair – where you’ll also get better odds.

Only champion horses win Melbourne Cups. Past champions include Kingston Rule, Might and Power, Rogan Josh and, of course, Makybe Diva, who won the race three times.

It takes a real champion to win this race twice in a row, and Viewed is looking to achieve that status this year. Winning the Cup last year with odds of $41, he is favourite this time at $5.60. It is hard to find a fault in his preparation this spring. He won the Caulfield Cup by two and a half lengths, and his final few hundred metres in Saturday’s Mackinnon Stakes proved that he was in career best form.

Alcopop had been equal favourite with Viewed until the latter’s great race in the Mackinnon. Alcopop is now at $5.70 with Betfair, but although his form is excellent, I’m not convinced. He has only raced 10 times, and only once at Group level. While winning form is always good form, and he may just be one of those freakish, unbeatable horses, I think $5.70 in a field of 24 is too short.

Another chance is Bart Cummings’ Roman Emperor. He raced beautifully in the Caulfield Cup, finishing second to Viewed. He is at $10 with Betfair, and if you like him, put a bet on now. Every man and his dog will be putting a bet on Cummings’ seemingly invincible horses, which will result in them being massive unders. If you do want to put a bet on Bart, you could look for some value in Allez Wonder, who is at $38 with Betfair (by far the best odds you’ll get for her).

The international horses have not fared well at all this Spring Carnival. Highly fancied Cima de Triomphe failed in both the Caulfield Cup and the Mackinnon Stakes, and did not even manage a place in this field. Irish raider Changingoftheguard is the most favoured of the European horses at $25. His form in Great Britain has been solid, but you can never tell whether a horse will race brilliant or flop when it has never raced in Australia before.

Australian horses take up only 7 of the 24 spots in the race; New Zealand being the dominant nation with 11. Daffodil ($19) and Master O’Reilly ($15.50), along with Roman Emperor, look the best of the Kiwis. This will be Master O’Reilly’s third Melbourne Cup, finishing 8^th and 4^th in the last two. His form this year has been excellent, and his last 200m in the Mackinnon Stakes sets him as a really good chance. The only query is whether or not he can actually win the race – he has not won anything since the 2007 Caulfield Cup.

Shocking has come from nowhere to become one of the favourites after his impressive win in the Lexus Stakes. He is now at $11.50, and his form over Group 2 and 3 races this spring has been fantastic. It’s very hard to knock his performances so far, except he will be up against some quality horses this time. He has also drawn a very wide barrier so things will be tough from there.

So, I need to pick a winner from a field of 24. It’s tough, but I’m going to go for Shocking, on the basis of his last win. Viewed will definitely be there over the last 200m, and don’t Master O’Reilly to be left behind when the sprinting begins. There is plenty of value here, and I can’t believe that Allez Wonder is at $38. Changingoftheguard is also good value.

MY TIPS

Shocking

Viewed

Master O’Reilly

Changingoftheguard

Allez Wonder

See our friends at Racing Bet Of The Day for more tips and info on the Melbourne Cup

The Group 1 AAMI Victoria Derby is the premier staying event for 3 year olds on the Australian racing calendar. Run over 2500m, each colt and gelding has 55.5kg and each filly carries 53kg to ensure the best horse really does win. There is over 1 and a half million dollars in prizemoney and trophies to be shared between the top eight runners. It takes a champion three year old to win this race. Most winners are male; the last time a filly won this race was in 1923. Previous winners of the Derby have gone onto win Caulfield Cups Cox Plates and Melbourne Cups and generally have outstanding careers. Some champion winners of the race include Phar Lap, Dulcify and, in more recent times, Nothin’ Leica Dane, Helenus and Efficient.

It seems likely that this year’s field will provide more than one champion horse. Shamoline Warrior is the next big thing in the Mark Kavanagh stables, and he is being touted as better than Maldivian and Whobegotyou. He has already won a group race in Melbourne, the Group 3 Norman Robinson Stakes, beating his 3 year old contenders, including Onemorenomore, who is racing in the Derby. Shamoline Warrior is currently the favourite at $3.40 with Betfair.

I like Monaco Consul ($5.50). Racing in Sydney, he won the Group 1 Champion Stakes at Randwick earlier this month. He has not raced over this distance before, but neither have any of his competitors. The major query will be the track – he has not raced in Melbourne before. His previous form shows that he might be better suited to a heavy or slow track, so don’t be afraid to bet on him if we get some rain.

Rockferry is at $5.80; however he has not had the experience of some of his 3 year old rivals. His only win has come from a maiden at Geelong, though he finished 3^rd in a listed race there last start. I think he is too untried to warrant a bet, but he has shown promise and he is still a chance, though there are better horses in this race. The one major advantage he has over his competitors is the fact he has raced over 2200m, which might not be the distance required here, but he has that experience of racing at a distance longer than 2000m, which most of the others have not.

Viking Legend is finished 3^rd in the Group 2 AAMI Vase on Cox Plate Day, and is at $14.50 with Betfair here. He has a lot of experience, but he has looked his best over the 1800-2000m mark, so the journey up to 2500m may prove testing for him.

This will be a fantastic race to watch. I am going to go with Monaco Consul for the win, though it could easily be any one of 5 or 6 horses who could go home victorious. I think Monaco Consul and Onemorenomore ($11.50) will be up there, as will Viking Legend, who is good for some more value.

MY TIPS:

Monaco Consul

Shamoline Warrior

Onemorenomore

Viking Legend

While most important races on Derby Day are ran over longer distances, the length of the $500,000 Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes is perfect for attracting some of the best quality 3 year olds in Australian racing. The 1200 metres are run down the straight track, which showcases some of the best sprinters of the future. This race has a fantastic record for providing fantastic sprinters with one of their first Group 1 victories. Famous winners of this race include champion Encosta de Lago, Alinghi, Gold Edition and Weekend Hussler.

Phelan Ready ($12.50 with Betfair) is racing this year, quite possibly in career-worst form. He is yet to win a race this Spring Carnival, and apart from finishing second in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes, he been very disappointing this spring. He finished 7^th in a Group 2 last start; he was a champion racer as a two year old, but there are serious doubts about him now he is a three year old. However, saying that, he is such a quality horse that it would be very unwise to discount him as a chance.

Shellscrape ($11.00) has had a fantastic Spring Carnival in Sydney so far. He won the Group 2 Roman Consul last start at Randwick, and also won another Group 3 earlier in the Carnival. His one attempt at a Group 1, The Golden Rose, resulted in a 5^th against some very good quality opponents. He should perform better in this race considering it will be at his preferred distance, 1200m. It will be interesting to see how he handles racing in Melbourne, something other Sydney runners have struggled at.

My favourite horse, More Than Great ($11), let me down last start with a 5^th in the Caulfield Sprint, when I backed him to win. I won’t be doing the same thing again this week, but he is still a chance. That 5^th was the only time he had not made the top three in a race, and he has won twice over this distance before. This is a step up in class for him, and will be his first Group 1, but he might just steal a win against his more experienced 3 year old rivals.

Filly Irish Lights is coming off a win in the Thousand Guineas earlier this month. She has not lost a race this carnival and is probably the most in-form horse in the race. However, all her form has come from racing fillies, so this race against colts and geldings will prove a test for her. Irish Lights will head onto the Crown Oaks after this race, probably irrespectively of where she finishes. She is favourite here at $6.80.

I think Shellscrape will win here, his form being very good. Wanted, who finished second in the Schillaci Stakes, has a big chance, as does Irish Lights. For a little value, I’m going with More than Great.

MY TIPS:

Shellscrape

Wanted

Irish Lights

More Than Great