Sportsbet Blog

Round nines footy predictions won’t be as straight forward as last weeks. The bookies took a battering with all favourites winning last round. This week I think a few outsiders have a great chance of getting up, making for a top round of footy.

Sports Bet of the Round

There are some good odds for this weeks tip. This week I recommend Freo, Adelaide and West Coast in a multi bet that at Sportsbet will pay around $7.00. Currently they have an offer where you get a $50 bet just for signing up which would make a handy profit for this weeks bet of the round.

Geelong V Western Bulldogs, Friday Night at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Geelong

Friday night brings the game of the round with two of the top four teams battling it out. The Bulldogs play well against Geelong as we saw in the finals series last year. They didn’t let Geelong play their flowing game and only went down by a few straight kicks. Jason Akermanis is showing great form and should trouble the Cats midfield but with Robert Murphy out through injury I don’t think they have enough depth to match the unbeaten Geelong.

North Melbourne V Fremantle, Saturday at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Fremantle

This is a tough one to pick. Sportsbet have set North at 1.77 favourite but personally I think Freo have what it takes to get over the Kangaroos. Big Matthew Pavlich is playing great footy at the moment that will suit Etihad Stadium. Aaron Sandilands continues to own his opposition with a massive 41 hit outs last weekends.

Adelaide V Carlton, Saturday at AAMI Stadium

Tip: Adelaide

This game is another one where I think the bookies may have it wrong. The Crows play decent footy at home and Carton have yet to prove they can win out of Victoria this year. Sportsbet have Carton as clear favorites at 1.65 to the Crows 2.20, it might be worth chucking a few dollars on the Crows this weekend as I think the bookies have underestimated Adelaide. I’ve picked the Crows to win in a hard battle.

West Coast V Collingwood, Saturday Night at Subiaco Stadium

Tip: West Coast

Collingwood are in shambles at the moment with the team riddled with injuries and Mick Malthouse’s sacking being called for by some parts of the media. Majority of AFL supporters will be happy with the way things are going with the Pies especially after the flogging against arch rivals Carlton last weekend. West Coast is a solid team with alot of potential that come the end of the year could see them take part in the finals this year. Lets hope the Eagles can make it three big losses in a row for the Pies!

Richmond V Essendon, Saturday Night at the MCG

Tip: Essendon

The Dons really pushed the Saints last week winning three of the four quarters but couldn’t quite put a few goals together. This weeks “Dream time” match should see the Dons do it easier and will continue to play a very fast straight down the middle game. This will catch out the Tigers midfield giving some clear inside 50 entries to Matthew Lloyd. Richmond’s nightmare season continues with a three point loss last week after leading with seconds to go, the speculation of coach Terry Wallace’s sacking earlier this week and now looking at another loss in this big game.

Sydney V Port Adelaide, Sunday at the SCG

Tip: Sydney

Sportsbet have Sydney as 1.60 favourites which looks about right. Port are still yet to prove their critics that they are a contender this year with inconsistency in past weeks. Warren Treadrea continues to hold up the Port team and Barry Hall is starting to get a fair bit of the ball for Sydney which could see a goal shootout from both ends. The Swans senior players Adam Goodes, Rhyce Shaw and Jude Bolton will be the key to Sydney winning and if all three are on song the Swans should win comfortably.

St Kilda  V Brisbane, Sunday at Etihad Stadium

Tip: St Kilda

St Kilda should continue their winning ways against the Lions on Sunday. Although the Saints look likely to win this weekend there is plenty of value for Brisbane with the bookies. Sportsbet have set the Lions at $5 which I think is pretty long odds. St Kilda may have some problems with the Brisbane forward line made up of Jonathan Brown and Daniel Bradshaw, which could see the game being much closer than first thought. The added incentive of the 200th game for Lenny Hayes and the announcement of long term dedication from Nick Riewoldt after signing a four year deal should see them get over the line.

Hawthorn V Melbourne, Sunday at the MCG

Tip: Hawthorn

Last week the Hawks showed some signs of returing form and this game should be a walk in the park for them. Arron Davey and Cale Morton both show that Melboure can play decent footy but they lack team effort which is needed to win especially against last year premiers. Hawks by 40+ points

There a two standout games this weekend with Hawthorn and Carton going head to head with both clubs needing to answer to their critics. Hawthorn were less than convincing after a win against a bottom 8 side in the Eagles where they should have stretched the winning margin out alot more than 18 points.

The St Kilda V Bulldogs game is the match of the round with both teams destined to do well in 2009. This will be the biggest test for the Saints this season and the result will show if they can match it with the big teams after a perfect start to the year.

AFL Tip of the Week: For all the punters my tip of the round is Hawks, West Coast and Adelaide to win in a multi that at IASbet will pay around $6.30. You can place this bet on at IASbet and get a $100 free bet when depositing $50 or more.

North Melbourne V Collingwood. Friday night at Etihad Stadium

Selection: Collingwood

The Pies have had an average start to what was expected to be a real contender after making it to the pre-season final. After a disappointing loss to their arch rival Carton last week I think they will bounce back against the Roos and have a comfortable victory. Also with Brett Harvey out for up to 12 weeks through injury it will only make the task tougher for the Kangaroos.

Hawthorn V Carlton. Saturday at the MCG

Selection: Hawthorn

This should be a very high paced, high scoring game. Both clubs have fast game styles which makes for great footy. This game will ultimately come down to which team makes the most of the inside 50 entries that both teams are very good at creating. The big forwards in Fevola, Buddy Franklin and Roughhead will be the key to success and I think the Hawks will come out on top. With premiership players Stephen Gilham, Brent Guerra and Michael Osborne returning for the Hawks their form from last year will start to return.

West Coast V Fremantle. Saturday at Subiaco Oval

Selection: West Coast

West Coast are usually an unstoppable force in Subiaco and with the added hype of the local derby the Eagles should fly high over what looks to be another disappointing year for the Dockers. As I have said in previous tips never to tip Freo. The battle of the WA rucks will be worth a look with both Cox and Sandilands going head to head in the middle. Sandilands dominated the leagues top ruck Darren Jolly last weekend with 46 hitouts.

Brisbane V Essendon. Saturday Night at the Gabba

Selection: Brisbane

This one is tough to make a prediction but I think home ground advantage will come into play at the Gabba. Brisbane should make up for the huge loss to a top class Geelong outfit last weekend. Essendon are showing good spirit with three wins this year and a massive 5 point win against a skilled Collingwood side, but they will find it hard to play enough consistent footy to do it on a regular basis. The Lions will be out to put a stop to Brent Stanton after a gallant 34 touches of the football last weekend.

Port Adelaide V Adelaide. Saturday Night at AAMI Stadium

Selection: Adelaide

The other derby played this weekend is at AAMI stadium know as Showdown XXVI. Both South Australian teams are on 3 wins, 2 losses making this a must win for both clubs. The result will spring board the winner to a two game advantage over their rival and a likely top 4 position at the end of the week, where the loser will drop out of the 8. Tipping between them is hard, but I think Adelaide has enough class in the midfield with 7 players last week getting over 25 possessions and should account for Port in a low scoring match.

Sydney V Richmond. Sunday at the SCG

Selection: Sydney

Sydney should have an easy win over an unorganised Tigers team. The Tigers don’t seem to have a great deal of flow to their game which sees them get caught up in the mid field. Jolly should be the game breaker in the middle giving Sydney first use of the ball at stoppages.

Melbourne V Geelong. Sunday at the MCG

Selection: Geelong

The Cats are the team to beat this year and Melbourne don’t have the players or mindset to overcome majority of teams let alone the leagues top. Geelong should win by over 45 points, anything less would be a disappointing day for them. The umpires will have 3 Brownlow Medal points written for Gary Ablett before the game has started after a staggering 88 possessions in his last two games.

Western Bulldogs V St Kilda. Sunday at Edihad Stadium

Selection: St Kilda

This weeks game of the round will be a huge test for both clubs. I think if the Saints play with the confidence they have been playing with they will blow the game apart early in the match. The Dogs may cause a headache for the Saints across the wings with their speed and tackling pressure forcing errors and turnovers, but the they will struggle with inside 50 marking contests where it counts. Sam Fisher, Lenny Hayes and Jason Gram will be the ones to watch dominating the opposition every game this year

Footy tipping has become a serious past time with some people spending many hours studying the stats and ins and outs for each game to get an advantage for the weekends games. I’ve followed a few different tactics and stuck by them for the year to see if they are more successful than others.

Let the Bookies do the work for you!
The bookies know best so look at the odds for each game and go for the favourite every time, odds are you will come out on top.

They employ full time staff to assess each game very closely and change the odds as injuries or late inclusions happen pre game so make sure to check the odds and place your tips as close to the start of the game or the tipping cut off point as possible. If there is a game where both teams are paying the same odds go with the team with the higher ladder position, this was my rule I stuck at to get my tip.

The bookmaker method worked well and with least fuss as the tips were ready to be placed without having to research each game of each week.

Follow the Pros
There are heaps of celebrity tipsters that live and breath football. People like Rex Hunt and Mike Sheahan in the AFL always have there tips on the Internet, radio and in the newspapers. They are the ones that truly know how the game ticks and can usually pick the underdog winners. They have a big footy profile and this pressures them to be accurate as they are expected to know who is likely to win.

Follow your head, not your heart
When I first started tipping I couldn’t bring myself to tip against my team, this was a big mistake. Tipping my team when I knew they were going to be doing it tough cost me 4 or 5 games throughout the year which was very costly come the end of the season. Follow your head and look at it as a win-win situation if you tip against your team and they end up losing.

Taking all these tactics into account I found tipping with the bookmaker favourites a sure way to being on top or near to it. When a underdog does come up and win at least you know if anyone tipped them that they will most likely tip other non-winning underdogs through the season and not be a threat come the end of the year.

The best place for tipping online is at Sportsbet. Its free to enter and the winner get $250,000. They have heaps of prizes including weekly cash prizes totaling a massive $1,000,000. If you decide to bet with Sportsbet they give you a 100% free bet bonus on your first deposit up to $200.
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