Sportsbet Blog

Round nines footy predictions won’t be as straight forward as last weeks. The bookies took a battering with all favourites winning last round. This week I think a few outsiders have a great chance of getting up, making for a top round of footy.

Sports Bet of the Round

There are some good odds for this weeks tip. This week I recommend Freo, Adelaide and West Coast in a multi bet that at Sportsbet will pay around $7.00. Currently they have an offer where you get a $50 bet just for signing up which would make a handy profit for this weeks bet of the round.

Geelong V Western Bulldogs, Friday Night at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Geelong

Friday night brings the game of the round with two of the top four teams battling it out. The Bulldogs play well against Geelong as we saw in the finals series last year. They didn’t let Geelong play their flowing game and only went down by a few straight kicks. Jason Akermanis is showing great form and should trouble the Cats midfield but with Robert Murphy out through injury I don’t think they have enough depth to match the unbeaten Geelong.

North Melbourne V Fremantle, Saturday at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Fremantle

This is a tough one to pick. Sportsbet have set North at 1.77 favourite but personally I think Freo have what it takes to get over the Kangaroos. Big Matthew Pavlich is playing great footy at the moment that will suit Etihad Stadium. Aaron Sandilands continues to own his opposition with a massive 41 hit outs last weekends.

Adelaide V Carlton, Saturday at AAMI Stadium

Tip: Adelaide

This game is another one where I think the bookies may have it wrong. The Crows play decent footy at home and Carton have yet to prove they can win out of Victoria this year. Sportsbet have Carton as clear favorites at 1.65 to the Crows 2.20, it might be worth chucking a few dollars on the Crows this weekend as I think the bookies have underestimated Adelaide. I’ve picked the Crows to win in a hard battle.

West Coast V Collingwood, Saturday Night at Subiaco Stadium

Tip: West Coast

Collingwood are in shambles at the moment with the team riddled with injuries and Mick Malthouse’s sacking being called for by some parts of the media. Majority of AFL supporters will be happy with the way things are going with the Pies especially after the flogging against arch rivals Carlton last weekend. West Coast is a solid team with alot of potential that come the end of the year could see them take part in the finals this year. Lets hope the Eagles can make it three big losses in a row for the Pies!

Richmond V Essendon, Saturday Night at the MCG

Tip: Essendon

The Dons really pushed the Saints last week winning three of the four quarters but couldn’t quite put a few goals together. This weeks “Dream time” match should see the Dons do it easier and will continue to play a very fast straight down the middle game. This will catch out the Tigers midfield giving some clear inside 50 entries to Matthew Lloyd. Richmond’s nightmare season continues with a three point loss last week after leading with seconds to go, the speculation of coach Terry Wallace’s sacking earlier this week and now looking at another loss in this big game.

Sydney V Port Adelaide, Sunday at the SCG

Tip: Sydney

Sportsbet have Sydney as 1.60 favourites which looks about right. Port are still yet to prove their critics that they are a contender this year with inconsistency in past weeks. Warren Treadrea continues to hold up the Port team and Barry Hall is starting to get a fair bit of the ball for Sydney which could see a goal shootout from both ends. The Swans senior players Adam Goodes, Rhyce Shaw and Jude Bolton will be the key to Sydney winning and if all three are on song the Swans should win comfortably.

St Kilda  V Brisbane, Sunday at Etihad Stadium

Tip: St Kilda

St Kilda should continue their winning ways against the Lions on Sunday. Although the Saints look likely to win this weekend there is plenty of value for Brisbane with the bookies. Sportsbet have set the Lions at $5 which I think is pretty long odds. St Kilda may have some problems with the Brisbane forward line made up of Jonathan Brown and Daniel Bradshaw, which could see the game being much closer than first thought. The added incentive of the 200th game for Lenny Hayes and the announcement of long term dedication from Nick Riewoldt after signing a four year deal should see them get over the line.

Hawthorn V Melbourne, Sunday at the MCG

Tip: Hawthorn

Last week the Hawks showed some signs of returing form and this game should be a walk in the park for them. Arron Davey and Cale Morton both show that Melboure can play decent footy but they lack team effort which is needed to win especially against last year premiers. Hawks by 40+ points

Theres only one real standout game in round eight worth tuning in for with arch rivals Collingwood and Carlton going head to head. This should be a great game, both teams are looking to cement a spot into a top four and both play a great brand of attacking football. The Essendon V St Kilda may also be worth a look but I suspect that a poor Essendon side to turn up on the day and will be crushed by the Saints pressure game style.

Sports Bet of the Round

This week I recommend a multi bet with the following teams. Brisbane, Sydney, Collingwood and St Kilda. All teams are destine to have a win and should pay around $8 . I also recommend Sportsbet for all your footy bets. I’ve found they have the best odds around for all the games and they also double your first deposit when joining with them. Find out more info on this here.

Fremantle V Hawthorn, Friday Night at Subiaco Oval

Tip: Hawthorn

This is a hard one to pick. On one hand I think that playing in Perth, Freo should have a win against a undermanned and out of form Hawks side. But on the other I can see the Hawks get their act together and start playing the footy they are known for. I’ve gone with the latter and think the Hawks should get the points. It was also interesting to see that the bookies have still set the Hawks as third favourite for the flag even after their rocky start to the season.

Melbourne V Western Bulldogs, Saturday at the MCG

Tip: Western Bulldogs

This ones a no brainer, the Doggies will have a nice win this weekend that should see them cement a top four position on the ladder. Melbourne have done everything except wave the white flag as they look towards the future playing youth and trying new game plans. Watch for Adam Cooney and Nathan Eagleton to both have big possession games, Melbourne will struggle to hold down any of fast paced midfielders from Bulldogs.

Geelong V North Melbourne, Saturday at Skilled Stadium

Tip: Geelong

Another Skilled Stadium game = another win for the Cats. Steve Johnson has taken the injured Gary Ablett’s position nicely with a definite 3 Brownlow vote performance with four goals and eleven marks last weekend. They have a huge presence all over the ground that would leave any coach scratching his head when trying to match up the classy unit. Geelong by 45+

Brisbane V Adelaide, Saturday Night at the Gabba

Tip: Brisbane

On paper Adelaide may be having their worst year on record with the team notching up a never seen before four straight losses at AAMI stadium. Brisbane on the other hand have only dropped one at home and had a nice win last week at the MCG. Brisbane seem to be playing as a team and are all in a good zone together which makes for some fast precise footy. Jonathan Brown and Daniel Bradshaw continue to be a handy forward duo providing easy targets for the Lions midfielders.

Sydney V West Coast, Saturday Night at ANZ Stadium

Tip: Sydney

This should be a close scoring game with both teams needing a win to keep in touch of the pack. Darren Jolly had a poor game against the Cats last weekend where he was considerably beaten in the hitout count so expect a big game from him against big man Dean Cox. With Daniel Kerr our for a couple of months West Coast will have a few problems in the middle that will play into Sydney’s hands especially Jude Bolton will his high tackling pressure. This is where the game will be won and I think the Swans will get over the line.

Port Adelaide V Richmond, Sunday at AAMI Stadium

Tip: Port Adelaide

Although Port lost last weekend they played pretty well in Melbourne and should take it step further at AAMI stadium. Even with Ben Cousins back playing half a game and decent games from both Joel Bowden and Nathan Foley they cant kick a winning score so I have trouble finding any light at the end of the tunnel for the Tigers. Port are showing good form and currently sit fourth on the ladder and a hapless Richmond sit fifteenth with only one win on the board. Warren Tredrea continues to prove his critics wrong with a handy three goals and seven marks on his last outing.

Collingwood V Carlton, Sunday at the MCG

Tip: Carlton

An interesting stat for this game is over the last seven rounds whoever St Kilda has beaten the week before has had a win the following round. I was at the game on Monday night against St Kilda and if the Pies play anything like they did then this stat will be blown out of the water. Suspect knee injuries to both Fraser and Swan will make it even harder for the Pies. Both teams are at level pegging on the ladder at seventh and eighth spots so this result will be very important come the end of the season. Carlton by a comfortable 24 points.

Essendon V St Kilda, Sunday at Etihad Stadium

Tip: St Kilda

As mentioned in the first paragraph I think Essendon will come to the game in a poor mind set and fall to the Saints pressure from all over the ground. St Kilda are going nicely at the moment and I can’t see an inconsistent team in the Bombers stopping them. Nick Dal Santo and Leigh Montagna both had exceptional games on Monday with 38 possessions so expect a similar proformance from them this weekend.

Round seven brings up two games of interest with Essendon V Hawks on Friday night and Collingwood V St Kilda on Monday night. The Hawks are looking like they are returning to their 2008 form with a very close win against a classy Blues outfit but the Bombers can show brilliance in big games and Friday night footy doesn’t get much bigger. A odd Monday night game will be played out against two of the leagues toughest teams in the Saints and Pies that will be well worth a look. The Pies know they are a half a chance to knock off the league leaders and will play a high pressure game.

Essendon V Hawthorn, Friday Night at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Hawthorn

This should be a interesting game. I think Essendon will play a very defensive game and will send alot of numbers back to fill the open areas in the Hawks attack stopping Buddy and Roughhead in the process. But as we have seen in the last 12 months it is easier said than done, and if the Hawthorn forward line can take only a few of the contested marks they will kick a winning score. Jobe Watson will be out to have another great game for the Dons after great 36 possessions last week.

Geelong V Sydney, Saturday at Skilled Stadium

Tip: Geelong

The Cats will eat the Swans alive at Skilled Stadium. Geelong match up Sydney all over the ground with an exception to Michael O’Loughlin who may cause some headaches for the Cats. I can see another 35 point plus win here.

Richmond V Brisbane, Saturday at the MCG

Tip: Richmond

Richmond are running out of opportunities to turn their disappointing start to the season around and I think this will be the game to make or break the Tigers. They have a decent list and the $2.05 odds Sportsbet are offering is a pretty good price. The Tigers play well at the MCG and if Jack Riewoldt can get into the game early they should be able to have a win even without the injured Matthew Richardson. Ben Cousins horror return to the game may continue with a sore looking Ben during his VFL game with Coburg. As pictured here Ben’s knees and calf were heavily iced up which Richmond officials said was for a precautionary measure only, but who knows.

North Melbourne V Port Adelaide, Saturday Night at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Port Adelaide

Port have the ability to play decent footy when it counts and these away games against middle grade teams are important for a top 4 finish this year. Both Kane and Chad Cornes are the keys to Port winning this weekend and I can’t see North having the answers to stop the skilled brothers.

Carlton V Fremantle, Saturday Night at the Gold Coast Stadium

Tip: Carlton

Fremantle will have to contend with both a strong Blues team and one of the longest flights for an AFL team when they play at the Gold Coast on Saturday night. This will be one of the deciding factors when they line up against Carton. Depending on how they have recovered during the week I think they will run out of legs towards the end of the game which should see Carton run over the top for a good win. Carton will also be out to make up for last weeks very disappointing loss to one of the best games so far this year after big Fev hit the post right on the siren handing the Hawks the victory. Watch out for a big bag of goals from Fevola (im sure he will be practicing his set shots this week!)

Adelaide V Western Bulldogs, Sunday at AAMI Stadium

Tip: Adelaide

Anyone who plays at AAMI stadium against the Crows will take a good part of a quarter to get started and I think this is where the Crows will set the play on their terms for the remainder of the game. The Crows will have learnt from the disappointing loss to Port last week in the “show down” and I predict they will bounce back with a win at home. Nathan Bock has not let recent assault charges effect his game since returning after a weeks ban. He has had a handy 26 possessions in both games giving them the depth they need in the half back line.

West Coast V Melbourne, Sunday at Subiaco Stadium

Tip: West Coast

West Coast at Subiaco are near unstoppable even when they arn’t playing well and once again Melbourne will continue to have trouble holding down the opposition. Dean Cox will dominate as the Deamons struggle to find a decent full time ruckman. Arron Davey continues to put good games together for Melbourne and will be one to watch as he weaves his magic in the middle.

Collingwood V St Kilda, Monday Night at Edihad Stadium

Tip: St Kilda

St Kilda have been near perfect which wont give Colloingwood enough chances around the ground to cause turnovers. Saints will again be very hard at the ball and will try to get the winning margin early in the game as they have done on all occasions this season. Brendon Goddard is having his best year at the saints including a match high 33 possessions last week and should once again rule the defencive 50 mtr arc. Goddard maybe worth a small wager for the Brownlow Medal now that Ablett will miss a few weeks with injury, at the moment he is paying $17 at IASbet. IASbet also give a $100 free bet with a deposit of $50 or more which would be pefect for this Brownlow bet.

Round 5 has some great games starting with the Port V Saints, both teams are going better than expected and will be a big test for both teams. The Bulldogs V Blues game will also be another to watch with both teams having start studded lineups and exiting game styles. We should see what Carton is truly made of after that match.

Here are my predictions for Round 5

Port Adelaide V St Kilda. Friday Night at AAMI Stadium

Selection: St Kilda

This is one of the games on the weekend with both teams coming off great wins. Saints are in perfect form with a dream start of 4 wins and no losses and a percentage of over 200. This will be St Kilda’s biggest test so far with Port convincingly beating the 2008 premiers at the MCG last weekend. The saints have shown good form over in Adelaide a few weeks ago with a win against the Crows and I think this will see them play a confident attacking game that will show many weak spots in the Port lineup. Watch out for the Saints midfield with Lenny Hayes, Nick Dal Santo and Luke Ball all in super form.

Essendon V Collingwood. Saturday at the MCG

Selection: Collingwood

The Pies are playing good footy at the moment and this should continue against the Dons. An Essendon V Collingwood game is always huge and the players lift to the expectations of the day and I think the Pies have much more power and skill that will see them run over the top of Essendon early. Tarken Lockyer and Scott Pendlepury will likely be the game breakers with Scott’s tackling pressure and Tarkyn’s push forward they both will be ones to watch.

Hawthorn V West Coast. Saturday at Aurora Stadium

Selection: Hawthorn

Surely the Hawks can start to play as they did last year! They have been the surprise after 4 rounds with only 1 win to show for it after a steller 2008. Maybe they are still on the Premiership honeymoon but if they don’t win this weekend in Tazzie things will go very sour very quickly. They have the class and skill to heavily out weigh the Eagles it just depends what Hawks teams comes out to play. The Hawks play well at Aurora and all eyes will be looking for a winning score from both Lance “Buddy” Franklin and Jarryd Roughead usually produce.

Fremantle V Sydney. Saturday Night At Subiaco Oval

Selection: Sydney

If there’s one tip that can be made every week, its not to tip Freo. They continuously lose games they are favourite to win and this year they look to only disappoint more especially after last weeks thumping only scoring four goals, their second lowest score ever. This game will still be a tight finish that will be won in the ruck with the two best ruckmen in the comp Darren Jolly and Arron Sandilands.

North Melbourne V Richmond. Saturday night at Docklands Stadium

Selection: North Melbourne

Richmond are in crisis control and this will show in their game. I think Richmond will lose the game on their own rather than the Kangaroos winning it. Once again Ben Cousins along with Nathan Brown will be wondering about their futures in the game with the Tigers starting to look to youth rather than the six over 30 year old players Richmond have.

Geelong V Brisbane. Sunday at Skilled Stadium

Selection: Geelong

The Cats have continued their great form from last year and look near unbeatable especially at Skilled Stadium. Ablett has started the year off huge equaling the handball record of 33 in last weeks win against Adelaide. Brisbane will struggle to make a decent score with Johnathan Brown out of touch and Matthew Scatlett beating anyone who enters his defense.

Western Bulldogs V Carlton. Sunday at Docklands Stadium

Selection: Western Bulldogs

The Bulldogs played an ugly game last week in the Perth heat against the Eagles which on paper they should have easily won. Most people say any team that plays in WA will lose the next week due to the long traveling taking a toll on the body. I think they will overcome any slight strains and should have a decent win over an up and flying Carlton if they can stop the likes of Chris Judd and Fevola.

Melbourne V Adelaide. Sunday at the MCG

Selection: Adelaide

This ones a no brainer! Melbourne have had their one and only win for the season which will see Adelaide have a comfortable win over a struggling (both on and off the field) Demons side. Adelaide played a great 3 quarters against a classy Geelong unit last week to show good promise but failed to close the game out.