Sportsbet Blog

There are plenty of betting strategies around but hedge betting is the only and a great way to guarantee a winning outcome from a bet. Basically bet hedging is used as insurance on another bet, but there are only certain times where hedging can be properly used.

Scenario 1.

You place a $10 five team multi bet on the AFL which will pay a profit of $100 if all five teams win. Your bet is going really well and the first four teams win. The fifth and last game, lets say St Kilda Vs Geelong are playing in few hours and you need Geelong to win for the multi bet to pay. This is where you have the opportunity to hedge your bet.

Instead of crossing you fingers and hoping that Geelong wins you can put $50 on St Kilda to win at $2.00 which obviously if they won would pay $100, a profit of $50.

Now you have given yourself two outcomes that both would give you a decent return on your initial $10 bet.

If Geelong wins, great! You win your multi bet and collect $100 minus the $50 you bet on St Kilda to win you still profit $50.

If St Kilda happens to win, its still great! You do lose your five leg multi bet but profit $50 on your second bet for St Kilda to win, minus your $10 multi bet at the start of the day you still profit $40

Scenario 2.

At the start of the year you put $100 on Essendon to win the Premiership at the end of the year, which would pay $1000, a $900 profit.

Essendon have a great year and make it to the Grand Final along with Hawthorn. Essendon are one step away from winning the premiership and your one step from profiting $900.

Instead of hoping Essendon wins the Grand Final you put a $500 bet on Hawthorn to win at  $1.90 which would give you a profit of $450

With this scenario you have guaranteed a tidy profit on your initial $100 bet no matter what the result of the game is.

If Essendon wins then you win your bet from the start of the year and profit $900 minus your $500 second bet on Hawthorn which brings you in a nice profit of $400.

If Hawthorn wins, you still win and profit $450 minus the $100 bet from the start of the year for a $350 profit.

Is hedge betting a good strategy?
Sure, but it depends on the amount of risk you wish to take. Looking at the first scenario if you didn’t hedge the bet and Geelong did win you would have made a profit of $90, but they lose you go home with your tail between your legs and wonder what could have been.

My advice, take a close look at the game and if there is any doubt on a winning result, hedge it. Even if you only hedge half the amount you still guarantee a happy ending either way.

Checkout our free bets section for the latest bookmaker deals that can also be used for hedge betting.

St Kilda

The Saints are just about over the hill. They have been the “about there” club for the last few years and it’s time for them to do or die. Now that Robert Harvey has departed the Saints it may cause some insecurities to the midfield as his chip kicks into the forward 50 and quick movements have been the stability of St Kilda for many years. Brendon Godard is the key to the Saints side and should once again prove a headache for most forward area players.

If they can keep relatively injury free during the year they should do well as they know how to play good footy come the end of the year. They should win more games that losses but will struggle to keep up with the pace.

Prediction: 5th

Collingwood

The Pies seem to know how to keep to the top half of the ladder and have been the consistent team of the last few years and I don’t think this year will be an exception. They play a great brand of footy with loads of flair from players like Dale Thomas, Alan Didak and Leon Davis will give the Pies the edge over most teams this year.

Some of the senior players at Collingwood are in the twilight of their careers and we may see some retirements towards the end of the year. They have recruited well with players including Steele Sidebottom and Chris Dawes expected to step up and show the AFL world what they are made of.

Collingwood are a good bet as they usually win more games than lose, also a top 8 finish bet might be worth a look if the odds aren’t too short.

Prediction: 6th

Western Bulldogs

The Bulldogs are a small quick unit that makes it tough for any team to hold up but unfortunately I don’t think they can build on the great year they had in 2008. They may have a few injury worries this year in Jason Akermanis and Brad Johnson that could see them lose too much leadership and talent to replicate last year’s form.

The doggies have a quality list but I think they will show too many holes in their game plan this year. A player to look out for is Jarrod Harbrow, his explosive quickness and agility will keep the fans coming back.

Prediction 7th

Sydney

Sydney will again play their slow “soccer like” brand of footy. It has worked in the past so I can’t see them changing now. Although sometimes boring for the spectator the Swans will again have many close low scoring games that will take the full four quarters to decide a clear winner.

Barry Hall will show his brilliance again this year and during the off season I’d expect he has learned how to keep a level head during a game.

Irishman Tadhg Kennelly heading back home will hurt the Swans bringing the ball into the forward 50 which has been a strong point in the team’s game plan. What’s interesting about the Swans is that they are yet to bottom out, they have consistently finished up the ladder for consecutive years and may do so until their next real attack on the top four.

Prediction: 8th

There is likely to be a couple new teams in this years top 4 with plenty of opportunities to be had with the top four finish betting markets.

Geelong

With last year’s grand final loss the Cats will be looking for blood and I find it hard to see a team to match them this year. With the finals experience under the belt and knowing what a loss does, Geelong will play for keeps throughout the season.

With multiple leaders in Tom Harley, Garry Ablett and Cameron Ling Geelong are once again the team to look out for. With the shorts odds for Geelong to win the premiership I wouldn’t bet on them until they have a mini slump midyear which may cause the odds to blow out a little.

Prediction: 1st

Hawthorn

Hawthorn will step up again have a great year knowing what finals footy feels like. Although they are the 2008 premiers I think that it will be a hard fort year for the Hawks with many games going down to the wire.

With Shane Crawford now retired the Hawks may lose some of the glam that helped them throughout last year in the midfield, but with Lance “Buddy” Franklin in the forward 50 who knows what will happen. If he can stay injury free, they should finish top 4, but don’t put your house on it.

Prediction: 2nd

Carlton

The Blues are due. They have been building in the last few years and are looking to get thing balanced. Chris Judd is the key to the team and they cannot do without his knowledge of the game.

They have recruited very well with Matthew Kreuzer and Bryce Gibbs both staring in their 20 games and will be the ones to watch again this year. Brendon Fevola should do well again as he tries to do one better this year and kick the illustrious 100 goals. Worth a look at backing them to finish top four.

Prediction: 3th

Richmond

Richmond should finally shake the dreaded 9th position this year and break into the top eight. The rookies have started to get a few games under their belts and Matthew Richardson is playing like his a born again footballer. This combination along with the hopeful come back of Graham Polak should give the Tigers a good year. Nathan Brown is the inspiration of the team and his skills seem to rub off on the players when he is on the field.

The addition of Ben Cousins to the Tigers will be the talking point for the year. I predict he will continue where he left off at West Coast and be an asset all over the ground. A few dollars on Ben Cousins to win the Brownlow Medal might be wise as I predict the odds will get shorter and shorter as the year goes on.

Prediction: 4th

Checkout the predictions for the rest of the 8 here