Sportsbet Blog

Punters are convinced that this year’s Rising Star award will be won by a long shot, with relative unknowns Billie Smedts (Geelong), Anthony Miles (GWS) Brandon Ellis (Richmond), Lachie Neale (Fremantle) and Jarrod Witts (Collingwood) all being well backed with online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au.

With GWS number 1 draft pick Jon Patton expected to be sidelined for the early stages of the season, Richmond first round pick Brandon Ellis has received more bets to win the Rising Star than any other player. If he is to get up and win the award those punters who showed early faith will be well rewarded, with Ellis currently priced at $67 to win.

Another long shot Billie Smedts has been the second best backed player and has come in from $67 to $51.

Bets have also been placed on Miles at $501, Neale at $401 and Witts also at $401.

Gold Coast’s Josh Caddy has continued to have strong support and has firmed further from $21 to $16 after starting the market as a $51 chance, while GWS young gun Stephen Coniglio has also been popular with the punters and has firmed from $10 to $9. Cats ruckman Nathan Vardy has drifted significantly from $9.00 to $41 after it was revealed he may not be available to play until mid-season.

“Without that stand out player it really is an open market and the punters seem certain that it will be an outsider who wins this year’s award,” said sportsbet.com.au’s Shaun Anderson.

“While names like Billie Smedts, Anthony Miles and Brandon Ellis may not be well know just yet, if the money is right we will all know who they are by years end.”

“Stephen Coniglio and Josh Caddy continued to be the best backed of the established players and have received much more betting action that the two favourites in Kane Lucas and Mitch Wallis.” Market courtesy of sportsbet.com.au

(Prices from Wednesday 1 February in brackets) 2012 Rising Star Winner

$7.00 Kane Lucas (Carl) (steady) $8.00 Mitch Wallis (WB) (steady) $9.00 Stephen Coniglio (GWS)

(in from $51)

$10 Jeremy Cameron (GWS) (steady)

$13 John Butcher (Port), Sam Day (GC) (steady) $15 Chad Wingard (Port), Jared Polec (Bris) (steady) $16 Josh Caddy (GC)

(in from $21)

$17 Tom Mitchell, Adam Treloar (GWS), Dylan Shiel (GWS) (steady)

$11 Jon Patton (GWS)

(in from $41)

While Buddy Franklin is the short priced favourite to win this year’s Coleman Medal, Adelaide Crows forward Taylor Walker is looming as a smokey according to online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au.

Initially priced at $26, the Broken Hill junior has come into $23. In a sign that the punters think this could be his break out year, he has been the second best backed pick for the Coleman with sportsbet.com.au, only behind Buddy Franklin who is favourite at $2.75.

“The only player we have taken more bets on is Buddy. The punters obviously think there is some value in Walker’s odds,” said sportsbet.com.au’s Shaun Anderson.

“There is no doubt he has the talent and he looks to be the Crow’s main man in the forward line. The question will be over his consistency, but the punters don’t seem to worried about it as we keep taking bets on him.”

One punter is particularly confident, having $500 on Walker at $26 to collect $13,000.

Tigers full forward Jack Riewoldt has been the big drifter in the market, now $10 after starting at $6.00.

Kurt Tippett has firmed from $31 to $26 while the punters believe Ross Lyon’s arrival at Fremantle could see Matthew Pavlich spending more time in the midfield as opposed to the forward line forward line, with the multiple All Australian drifting from $21 to $34. Market courtesy of sportsbet.com.au 2012 Coleman Medal (Prices in brackets from November 2011 when the market opened)

$2.75 Lance Franklin (in from $3.50) $7.00 Travis Cloke (out from $5.50) $10 Jack Riewoldt (out from $6.00) $14 Josh Kennedy (out from $11) $16 Jonathan Brown (out from $11) $18 Nick Riewoldt (in from $21) $21 James Podsiadly (out from $15) $21 Stephen Milne (in from $23) $23 Taylor Walker (in from $26) $23 Mark Lecras (steady) $26 Kurt Tippett (in from $31) $28 Steve Johnson (out from $26)

$34 Matthew Pavlich (out from $21)

Punters have been quick to step into some short priced favourites for Saturday’s Flemington meeting with Helmet, Mosheen and Black Caviar all very popular early.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters had identified the three as good things on Saturday but he was happy to let them on. “We took bets of $10,000, $5000 and a number of $1000 and $2000 bets on Mosheen in the first few hours of putting the market up and she has shortened from $1.85 to $1.80,” Sullivan said. “Helmet was also well backed early with one punter having $16,000 and he has been rock solid at $1.75.

“Many punters are doubling Mosheen or Helmet up into Black Caviar or even taking the treble.” “I am happy to let the punters on though as Mosheen is in a high class field while Helmet does a few things wrong, isn’t great first up and probably has an eye on the Guineas and Dubai.”

is currently $1.12 with Sportingbet and Sullivan said they expected punters to step in again. “Her supporters are fiercely loyal and why wouldn’t they be after the wins she has given them and they will come for her again this week,” he said. “Dropping from 1400m to 1000m against the second best sprinter in the country means we will be taking her on again but it is becoming a very costly exercise for Sportingbet.”

Such is his work ethic, Cronulla, New South Wales and Australia second rower has been installed as the $6.50 favourite by online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au to be the player who gains the most metres during the 2012 NRL season. Not only is Gallen the only player in single figures, the next ten players in the market are all backs.

Equal second in the market at $13 are flyers Ben Barba, Jarryd Hayne, Brett Stewart, Josh Hoffman, Josh Dugan, Darius Boyd and Ashley Graham with Akuila Uate, Nathan Merritt and Michael Jennings next at $15. “He is a machine. He never stops running,” sportsbet.com.au’s Ben Hawes said. “The fact he’s a back rower and will likely play front row at times this year but is such a clear favourite is a testament to the effort he puts in and the way he plays.” “There are some very exciting and lightening quick players behind him in the market so it will be great to see some of them in full flight but we think Gal will get the gong.” Eels prop Fuifui Moimoi is a $17 chance alongside Blake Ferguson, Kevin Locke and Lachlan Coote with Corey Parker and Jason Nightingale (both $19), Nathan Gardiner ($21), Feleti Mateo ($26), Anthony Watmough ($29) and Matt Bowen ($34) all given an outside chance. Market courtesy of sportsbet.com.au

Most metres gained in NRL in 2012

$6.50 Paul Gallen $13 Ben Barba, Jarryd Hayne, Brett Stewart, Josh Hoffman, Josh Dugan, Darius Boyd, Ashley Graham $15 Akuila Uate, Nathan Merritt, Michael Jennings $17 Blake Ferguson, Fuifoi Moimoi, Kevin Locke, Lachlan Coote $19 Corey Parker, Jason Nightingale $21 Nathan Gardiner $26 Feleti Mateo $29 Anthony Watough $34 Matt Bowen $40 David Taylor

The New Zealand Warriors will make it three consecutive Toyota Cup titles says online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au, who’ve installed the Kiwi side as the $3.50 favourite. Their biggest threat comes from the Melbourne Storm, who’ve been priced at $6.50 with the North Queensland Cowboys and Sydney Roosters sharing the third line of betting at $9.00.

The Wests Tigers and Newcastle Knights are next at $13 followed by the Cronulla Sharks and Brisbane Broncos (both $15), Canterbury Bulldogs ($17) and Canberra Raiders ($19). “The Warriors are once again the team to beat. Their line-up is just as strong as the past few seasons and when you throw in their physical attributes and flair, there’s a lot to like about them. They’ll take some beating.” sportsbet.com.au’s Ben Hawes said.

2012 isn’t looking good for both the Manly Sea Eagles and Gold Coast Titans, who are the biggest outsiders in the market at $51.

Market courtesy of sportsbet.com.au

2012 Toyota Cup winner

$3.50 New Zealand Warriors

$6.50 Melbourne Storm

$9.00 North Queensland Cowboys, Sydney Roosters $13 Wests Tigers, Newcastle Knights $15 Cronulla Sharks, Brisbane Broncos $17 Canterbury Bulldogs $19 Canberra Raiders $21 Parramatta Eels

$26 South Sydney Rabbitohs, Penrith Panthers $41 St. George Illawarra Dragons $51 Manly Sea Eagles, Gold Coast Titans

RACING

Flemington Race 4 – The VanityHard to tip against classy filly Mosheen ($1.80) who was super impressive first up and has the class edge on her rivals. There are two improving types here. Shopaholic ($6.00) won well first up, has a senior rider for this assignment and still has plenty of upside. Great Dame ($5.50) bolted in at Sandown in weaker grade but looked impressive. She should be able to dictate from the front and might be hard to run down. Sydney filly Angel Of Mercy ($10.00) creates interest. She has her share of ability and the booking of Craig Williams is a good lead.

Flemington Race 7 – Speediness rated on top in an open affair ($4.00). He looked good winning first up at Sale and will be better suited at 1400 and has form around Sincero which is a good for a race like this. Pago Rock ($4.60) has a great record winning six of eight and could get a soft lead here. Agrippa ($6.00) is racing well and drops 8.5kg for this and is sure to be in the finish. Niblick ($7.50) has a good first up record and you can expect him to be the one closing late.

Warwick Farm Race 5 – Thoroughbred Breeders ClassicLooks a strong race which sees the return of the top class mare Beaded ($2.80). She’s a Group One winner who looks well placed in this and she boasts a very good first up record and will be the one to beat. Red Tracer ($4.00) is next best. She’s been trialling well. She also performs well first up but jockey Hugh Bowman will need a touch of luck form the awkward draw. Steps In Time ($5.50) returned with a good win in open company at Canterbury, this race is a step up in class but she does look to be an improving type. At nice odds, Balmont ($15.00) could be the knock out runner, and she’s had two solid trials in preparation for this. Include Lady’s Angel ($10.00) if the track is wet.

Warwick Farm Race 6 – Royal Sovereign Stakes. Interesting race with horse to follow through autumn resuming. Manawanui ($2.30) is clearly the top rated runner here. He looks beautifully placed at level weights. There doesn’t look to be a lot of speed in this so he won’t be too far back in the run. Only query is if his long spring preparation has done him any harm, however he has been trialling well. Next pick is the very promising Moment Of Change ($3.50) who created a huge impression in the spring and trialled sensationally at Rosehill recently. This will be his first attempt at racing clockwise under race conditions, and interestingly some of his stable mates appear to have struggled with this recently. Hot Snitzel ($10.00) will be primed to run a race first up and is the specialist sprinter in this field. Free Wheeling ($11.00) has had early support indicating he’s ready to fire.

Harness Racing – Bonus Bet

Melton Race 3 Big night of racing in the west where it looks to be a race for the favourites in the heats of the Inter Dominion, but shrewd punters might find some value given these races are run over the short distance of 1600m which tends to bring the good horses back to the field. Harness punters can enjoy a special Bonus Bet on Friday night – simply back the winner of Melton Race 3 and receive a matched bet on Gloucester Park Race 2, which is a heat of the Inter Dominion and looks a terrific race between Washakie ($2.25) and Auckland Reactor ($1.75).

Washakie will lead, he loves the track and is suited by the short distance, while Auckland Reactor should sit outside him and has the class to finish over the top. If the two favourites get caught in a speed battle, group one winner David Hercules ($15.00) could be a knock out chance. Click here for details on our bonus.

AFL – NAB Cup

Footy fans get their first taste with the NAB Cup kicking off on Friday night with Richmond, North Melbourne and Hawthorn meeting in the first block of games. Punter’s keen to get stuck into the footy betting should check out IASbet.com with plenty of betting specials plus Coleman Medal, Brownlow Medal, club Best and Fairest markets available plus some special markets including under/over season markets for players such as Buddy Franklin, Travis Cloke, Jack and Nick Reiwoldt, Tom Hawkins among others.

Holden drivers Jamie Whincup and Craig Lowndes will be fighting out their own separate championship battle during the 2012 V8 Supercar season so dominant they will be says online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au.

Defending champion Whincup and runner-up Lowndes have been installed as $2.85 and $3.25 chances respectively to take out this year’s title with their nearest rival being Ford’s Shane Van Gisbergen who is at $11. Mark Winterbottom and Garth Tander (both $12), Will Davison ($13), James Courtney ($15), Lee Holdsworth, Rick Kelly (both $12) and Tim Slade ($26) round out the top ten.

“The market suggests it’s going to be another year of chasing Team Vodafone,” sportsbet.com.au’s Ben Hawes said. ““We just can’t see how anyone will be able to consistently match it with them.” “Lowndes almost held on to beat Whincup last season so it will be a ding-dong battle between them again. The huge question is whether anyone can spoil their party? We don’t think so.” Market courtesy of sportsbet.com.au

2012 V8 Supercar series winner

$2.85 Jamie Whincup

$3.25 Craig Lowndes $11 Shane Van Gisbergen $12 Mark Winterbottom, Garth Tander $13 Will Davison $15 James Courtney $17 Lee Holdsworth, Rick Kelly $26 Tim Slade $31 Jason Bright $34 Michael Caruso $41 Fabian Coulthard $51 Steven Johnson, Dean Canto $67 James Moffatt $101 Todd Kelly, Alex Davison, Jonathon Webb $126 Russell Ingall, Tony D’Alberto $151 Dean Fiore $251 Karl Reindler, Warren Luff

Punters with leading online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au have backed  from a distant $13 shot into clear favourite at $2.75 to take the reins of Sydney FC in the A-League next season.

85% of bets placed on the market have been for Arnold to move to the Sky Blues while every other contender originally priced have either drifted in betting or remained the same. Early favourite Gianfranco Zola has drifted from $5.00 out to $5.50 as has Branko Culina ($8.00 out to $13), Steve Corica ($9.00 out to $13), Ian Crook ($11 out to $15) and Tony Popovic ($15 out to $19). “In the punters eyes Graham Arnold will be at Sydney FC next season,” sportsbet.com.au’s Ben Hawes said. “There’s been little to no interest in anyone else.”

Market courtesy of sportsbet.com.au

Who will coach Sydney FC in 2012/13?

$2.75 Graham Arnold (in from $13)

$5.50 Gianfranco Zola (out from $5.00)

$13 Branko Culina (out from $8.00)

$15 Steve Corica (out from $9.00) $15 Ian Crook (out from $11)

$19 Tony Popovic (out from $15) $19 Lawrie McKinna (out from $15)

$21 John Kosmina (out from $17) $23 Frank Farina (steady) $26 Ange Postegoclou (steady) $34 Ruud Gillit (steady) $34 Aurelio Vidmar (steady) $34 Mark Rudan (steady) $41 Mehmet Durakovic (steady) $41 Paul Okon (steady) $41 Ned Zelic (steady) $51 Zeljko Kalac (steady) $81 Craig Foster (steady) $101 Robbie Slater (steady) $101 Mark Bosnich (steady)

English singer Adele is set to scoop the pool at the 54th Grammy Awards on Monday with online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au installing her as the overwhelming favourite in the Record, Album and Song of the Year categories. Adele’s Rolling In The Deep is the $1.20 favourite to take out the Record of the Year category ahead of The Cave by Mumford & Sons ($5.00), Holocene by Bon Iver ($8.00), Grenade by Bruno Mars ($8.00) and Katy Perry’s Firework ($15).

In Album of the Year category, Adele’s 21 is at $1.10 with her closest competition coming from Bruno Mars with Doo-Woops & Hooligans ($7.50) and the Foo Fighter’s Wasting Light ($9.00). Born This Way by Lady Gaga ($11) and Rihanna’s Loud ($23) are the outsiders in that market. Adele’s Rolling In The Deep is the $1.25 favourite for the Song of the Year with All Of The Lights by Kanye West next in the market at $4.50 followed by The Cave from the Mumford & Sons ($7.50), Holocene by Bon Iver ($17) and Grenade by Bruno Mars ($19).

“The markets clearly reflect Adele’s popularity and the punters are definitely keen on her to take out all three categories,” sportsbet.com.au’s Ben Hawes said. In the Best New Artist category, Nicki Minaj is the $2.00 favourite with Bon Iver ($3.25), The Band Perry ($4.00), J. Cole ($7.00) and Skrillex ($13) also in the mix. Markets courtesy of sportsbet.com.au

54th Grammy Awards Record of the Year

$1.20 Rolling In The Deep – Adele $5.00 The Cave – Mumford & Sons $8.00 Holocene – Bon Iver $8.00 Grenade – Bruno Mars $15 Firework – Katy Perry

54th Grammy Awards Album of the Year

$1.10 21 – Adele $7.50 Doo-Woops & Hooligans – Bruno Mars $9.00 Wasting Light – Foo Fighters $11 Born This Way – Lady Gaga $23 Loud – Rihanna

54th Grammy Awards Song of the Year

$1.25 Rolling In The Deep – Adele $4.50 All Of The Lights – Kanye West featuring Rihanna, Kid Cudi & Fergie $7.50 The Cave – Mumford & Sons $17 Holocene – Bon Iver $19 Grenade – Bruno Mars

54th Grammy Awards Best New Artist

$2.00 Nicki Minaj $3.25 Bon Iver $4.00 The Band Perry $7.00 J. Cole $13 Skrillex

Round 10 will see former Geelong star Gary Ablett go up against his old team mates for the first time as Gold Coast take on Geelong Saturday night in the first ever game at Metricon Stadium Saturday night. The matchup will be interesting but the prediction is an easy one for your footy tips.

The round kicks off with the Blues highlighting Friday night footy for the second week in a row and concludes Sunday afternoon with the Hawks & Bulldogs in the twilight game.

My Best Bet of Round 10 is Carlton by 1-39 against Melbourne on Friday night which is paying 2.30 at Sportsbet where they give you a $200 free bet bundle just for signing up. See more info here.

As a side bet for the future it would not surprise me to see quite a few people jumping on Lance “Buddy” Franklin to win the Brownlow Medal at $14 at Sportsbet at the moment. If he can keep himself on the park he could be the first Full Forward to win the medal since Tony Lockett way back in 1987.

All the St Kilda fans out there make sure to claim your free Saints jumper with Centrebet. The offer ends in a weeks time on May 31st so be quick. See the Centrebet site here to get your jumper today.

Melbourne V Carlton Friday night at the MCG

Carlton were very unlucky not to get over the line against the Cats last week. They showed just how good they can be. They must beat teams like Melbourne though to be a real contender.

Melbourne have been hit bad with injuries and suspension of late but they still have a very talented list. If they are any show against the Blues they will need massive games out Maloney, Green, Sylvia & Jurrah.

Tip: Blues by 44 points

Odds: Melbourne 4.60 Carlton 1.20

North Melbourne V Sydney Saturday at Etihad Stadium

The Kangaroos will be disappointed after letting one get away last week against the Lions. Drew Petrie continues to impress and Harvey, Swallow & Wells get the job done week in week out. It is the younger to middle-aged players that are letting the team down, they need to step it up to give North a chance.

The Swans got blown away in the second half by the Hawks, losing their 3rd straight at the SCG, I expect them to bounce back this week against North Melbourne. McGlynn has been consistent up forward but needs a bit more help on the scoreboard.

Tip: Swans by 28 points

Odds: North 2.20 Sydney 1.68

Fremantle V St Kilda Saturday at Patersons Stadium

The Dockers got their second win at AAMI Stadium this year last week and will head back home full of confidence. The loss of Aaron Sandilands for 4 weeks is a huge blow but I predict them to be able to cover him.

The Saints kept their small finals hopes alive with a victory over the Demons. The return to form of Reiwoldt, Goddard, Milne & Montagna will make saints fans happy but I am not sure they will have enough just quite yet to get over the Dockers in Perth.

Tip: Fremantle by 11 points

Odds: Saints 1.58 Freo 2.40

Gold Coast V Geelong Saturday night at Metricon Stadium

This will be a cracker of a match for the first 10 minutes while the Cats try to get at Gary Ablett in their first match against the former Cats superstar. From that point onward expect it to be all Geelong, don’t be surprised if this one is over 100 points.

Geelong may take the chance to rest older bodies such as Ottens & Milburn but will welcome back captain Cameron Ling to stop Ablett.

Tip: Cats by 84 points

Odds: Suns 12.50 Cats 1.03

Richmond V Port Adelaide Saturday night at TIO Stadium Darwin

The Tigers were super impressive last week against the Bombers and look a legitimate Finals hope this year. King & Nahas are proving to be a big help to Reiwoldt up forward while Cotchin & DeLedio continue their stellar seasons.

The Power on the other hand are in as big a trouble as any side I can think of in recent history. The way they are playing I am not sure they will win another game this season. The team needs a real shake up at the end of the year.

Tip: Tigers by 46 points

Odds: Richmond 1.25 Port 4.00

Adelaide V Brisbane Sunday ar AAMI Stadium

The Crows were too good for Collingwood for 3 quarters last week, but were run over in the last quarter. A very good sign for the Crows were the performances of Tippet, Thompson, Rutten and young gun Rory Sloane. Don’t expect a last quarter fade out this week.

Captain Jonathan Brown lead the Lions to their first win of the season last week with a return game 4 goal haul. Ash McGrath may return this week but stars Rockliff & Drummond are still 2 and 4 weeks away respectively. Brisbane will put up a brave fight but won’t be able to get their second win just yet.

Tip: Crows by 36 points

Odds: Adelaide 1.25 Brisbane 4.00

Collingwood V West Coast Sunday at the MCG

The Pies were given a real scare last week against Adelaide and were saved by one of the best last quarters ever seen got them the points against Adelaide. Swan has not been in the form everyone expects from him of late, this could be a big game for him.

The Eagles were the hottest team in the AFL last week, smashing the Bulldogs by 123 points. Josh Kennedy was brilliant with 10 goals but I also really liked the games of Luke Shuey & Marc LeCras. I don’t think the Pies will have it all their own way but will get the points.

Tip: Pies by 38 points

Odds: Pies 1.17 Eagles 5.12

Western Bulldogs V Hawthorn Sunday afternoon at Etihad Stadium

What Western Bulldogs side will run out on the park this week? The one that is capable of beating any team in the comp or the one that got demolished last week. Expect changes to be made with Barry Hall to be the biggest inclusion.

Unfortunately for the Dogs they come up against a in form Hawks side. Buddy was brilliant again last week, Mitchell was his normal self but more importantly for the Hawks their captain Luke Hodge looks to be getting close to getting back to his best. This may be a shootout between Franklin & Hall and if Buddy can kick a little straighter than he has been he should be able to get the Hawks over the line.

Tip: Hawks by 22 points

Odds: Bulldogs 3.48 Hawks 1.31