Sportsbet Blog

One thing I have noticed in the markets over the past couple of weeks is that the Warriors have quietly slipped into third spot in the premiership betting in some markets, while remaining outside the top 4 in others.

Stacey Jones Is Back

From all reports there has been a real spring in the step at training in Auckland with the return of premiere playmaker Stacey Jones. While many thought his NRL days were done and dusted, Jones has decided to give it one more crack, and that can only be of benefit to a team that managed to come home strong last season to nab fourth place on the ladder, all  the while struggling to dominate in the halves.

Jones’s experience and ability should be felt immediately this year, and could be the impetus they need to avoid the sluggish starts which have plagues them in recent years.

As well as adding some quality attacking options over the off-season with Denan Kemp and Joel Moon heading across the ditch from the Broncos, Wade Mackinnon will start season 2009 injury free and his presence at fullback will be of great value to the team.

The backline is shaping up quite nicely, with a good balance of experience, youth, flair and consistency.

Has Ruben Wiki Really Retired?

It feels like Ruben Wiki has been around since Jack Gibson was coaching…and that’s because he almost has, making his debut for the Raiders just three years after The Supercoach’s last game in charge of NSW. Along with Steve Menzies he has been one of the most incredibly consistent performers over an extended career, and his loss will be felt by the Warriors this season.

Along with Wiki, The warriors have lost two other key forwards in Wairangi Koopu and Logan Swann, and with veteran Steve Price playing what could be his last season their is a real need for some youngsters to step forward and announce themselves as the players to do the job this year and into the future.

One player who has the talent to do just that is 21 year old Sam Rapira. After suffering a little bit from second season sydrome in 2008, he will be looking to really make his mark in the competition this year.

Consistency Is The Key

One area where the team can really make some improvements is in their ability to play at a consistently high level week in, week out. On any given day, teams from across the country know that The Warriors can match it with the best of them and come out on top. They also know the team can implode and play like they are struggling hard to avoid a smack by the wooden spoon.

Stacey Jones will be a big help in this regard, but he is only one man. Consistent team performances, both at home and away should be one of the main points of focus for coach Ivan Cleary this year.

Personally I think they are a little bit short to be betting on them at the moment. It is almost a certainty that you will get better odds on the Warriors at some stage in the first half of the season

Current Odds To Win The Premiership – $11

Crooksy

Having participated in the season decider for the past three years, The Storm have only one premiership to show for their dominance over this period. There are many who think that the team has passed its peak and this season looms as a testing one for the men south of the border.

How Much Will The Departure Of Folau Hurt The Storm?

Much has been made of the departure of Israel Folau, moving closer to home by joining the Brisbane Broncos. And while there is no doubt he is a huge loss, I don’t think it will be the difference between them having a good season and a great one. Two years ago when Melbourne were in their best form, they never had Folau and his loss will be to the gain of the new centre pairing Will Chambers and Willie Isa.

Captain Cameron Smith has singled out Chambers as one to watch this season, after the disappointment of injury curtailed his season in 2008. “We only got a glimpse of Will Chambers last year,” Smith said “but with Israel Folau gone I think you’ll see just what he’s capable of”.

Chambers is Super 14 bound next year after signing a contract with The Reds, so will be looking to make the most of his last season in the NRL (for now).

Strength In The Backs, Forwards Consistent

There are plenty of other attacking options in the backs with potent strike weapons Billy Slater and Greg Inglis, and they will be served well by halfback Cooper Cronk. The Storm has scored over one hundred tries per season for the last six seasons, which immediately highlights where a major strength of the team has been.

Cameron Smith has proved himself to be one of the most dominant hookers of the past decade, and he leads from the front in all that he does. He is surrounded by a pack that is consistently good, without necessarily being full of superstars. Much of this season’s success will depend on this pack maintaining its form and paving the way for the backs.

Player Movements

As always in the NRL, when a team rises to become successful as a result of no name players becoming game breaking superstars, at some stage there has to come a point when those players require more money and the salary cap becomes an issue.

This point has arrived for the Melbourne Storm. Their off-season turnover has seen them lose more players than they gain, and the depth in the squad perhaps isn’t quite what it has been over the past few seasons. Apart from Folau, the Storm has lost stalwart Matt Geyer and four quality forwards including England-bound Michael Crocker. Whle Wairangi Koopu is a great signing for the club, injuries in a few key posiitons in the forwards could really stunt their season.

Then when you take into account the unpredictability of how players will come through the rep season, doubts linger in the mind as to Melbourne’s ability to match their exploits from the recent past.

One of their real strengths in this regard is their coach Craig Bellamy, who has established himself as one of the very best in the game (although NSW origin fans would like his track record to improve this year). He has been with the club since 2003, and has consistently displayed a knack for quickly developing the talent of younger players and helping them achieve their full potential in the sport. Storm fans will be hoping he can do the same this year.

The Storm open their campaign with tough matches against the Dragons, then on the road in queensland against the Broncos and the Cowboys. We will very quickly get an idea as to how the team will shape up for the rest of the season.

Current Odds To Win The Premership – $6

Crooksy

By claiming victory for an Australian team for the first time in six years in last weekends World Club Challenge, the Manly Sea Eagles have fired out an early warning to rival clubs that they haven’t let any complacency creep into the camp over the off-season.

Back-To-Back, Can It Still Be Done?

No team has won back to back premierships in the last decade and it has become a much more difficult achievement than in previous eras. The days of the rugby league dynasty would appear to be over – just don’t tell the boys from across the bridge.

Compared to the high player turnover seen at some other clubs, Manly has managed to retain the core of the team that was so dominant during the second half of season ’08. The most obvious loss has been Steve Menzies, with three of his team mates following him to colder climates.

Replacements have arrived in the form of a couple of signings with great potential in Chris Bailey and Tony Williams. While neither of these is an established match winner, they have the potential to do great things this year in a team that will create plenty of opportunities to impress.

Manly fans will be quietly rejoicing at the announcement of Tim Sheens as the next Australian coach. Des Hasler was on the short list but is now able to focus his attention on doing what no other coach has done since Wayne Bennett in 1998-99. He has quickly developed a reputation as one of the more astute coaches in the game

Along with Brisbane and the Storm, Manly will be hit hard by the mid-season representative fixtures. They have managed to avoid this in the past couple of years, with their players flying under the radar. They are well and truly out in the open now with  four of the squad making their debut at international level last year. You would expect somewhere between five and seven of the Manly squad to feature during the State Of origin series this year depending on form and injuries.

Plenty Of Strengths, Very Few Weaknesses

110-12…that was the for and against for the Sea Eagles in last year’s post-season. It takes a complete team to rack up those sort of numbers. Attacking options aplenty are combined with a tireless defence. Rivals looking for weaknesses will need to do their home work because they aren’t readily apparent.

The bookies have installed Manly as pre-season favourites, with the Melbourne Storm close behind. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Melbourne drop down in the betting early on in the season, but it is very hard to see Manly getting off to a slow start and they are definitely the team to beat this season.

Current Odds To Win The Premierships – $4.25

Crooksy

Having assessed the chances of Wayne Bennet’s new team in a previous post, I’ll now turn to the squad he has left behind after being at the helm for the last 532 games, The Brisbane Broncos.

Old Man Bennett…Gone

The first thing that springs to mind is there has to be some hangover from the departure of such a long serving coach. The club has known no other leader since it entered the competition 21 years ago, and the indelible mark he has left at the club is not something that can be replaced overnight.

Add to this the fact that along with Bennett, 13 of last years players have left the club and you are looking at a squad that barely resembles the 2008 version.

But if there is any club with the talent to overcome such a challenge it is the Broncos. Much to the disgust of their southern rivals, the Broncos have been the most consistent performers  in the NRL since they entered the competition, having missed the finals just three times in two decades.

For years New South Welshmen have begrudged the pool of players that Brisbane has had to choose from and this is proven by one look at the player changes to the roster – only 4 new players were signed to replace the 13 that left, meaning the club was confident enough that the current juniors and reserves can step up and fill any gaps where required.

Strength In The Backline

One of the four signings for this year was young superstar Israel Folau, and his combination with Justin Hodges in the centres is sure to cause much concern to opposing players. Add other class backs Lockyer, Karmichael Hunt and Peter Wallace and you have a team with plenty of attacking options.

It is in the forwards that opponents may find weak spots to exploit. The loss of Tonie Carroll has not received a huge amount of attention, but I think Brisbane fans will realise early on in the season how important he has been to this team over the last few years.

It will be left to Sam Thaiday to lift the forwards around him, and help fast track the development of some of the young big men who will be given opportunities at various stages throughout the year.

Much will depend on injuries for the Broncos this year – on paper they don’t not seem to have the depth needed to cover key positions if a plague of injuries occurs. Having said that the team from Brisbane is renowned for turning up talent at an alarming rate and I’m sure by the end of this year there will be at least one player from the squad who started the season as an unknown and finished as a household name.

The Broncos finished just outside the top 4 last year, and will be doing well to finish any higher than 2008. Somewhere just inside the top 8 is the most likely result.

Current Odds To WIn 2009 Premiership – $12.50

Crooksy

There is a great night of Aussie sporting action ahead with two finals of interest as well as the Australian cricket team assuming  a commanding position heading into the fourth day of the first test in South Africa.

World Club Challenge

First up we have the Manly Sea Eagles playing the annual World Club Challenge against last year’s champions, the Leeds Rhinos. Australian teams have a terrible history in this event – at the moment they are on a run of five consecutive losses. So it is understandable to see the reactions from league people in England when people such as Manly chief executive Grant Mayor apparently speak on behalf of the NRL and call the Super League a “second-tier” competition.

While it may be true that this is the view held by the majority of league supporters on this side of the pond, it is a poor example of gamesmanship for a ranking official to state as much in a week that should be all about the sporting event that brings together the top teams from both competitions.

Bookies have installed Manly as favourites at $1.70, against the $2.10 on offer for the Rhinos. If you’re a betting man who values history this may be good enough for a punt on the Rhinos, with Australian teams traditionally struggling in this match

World Matchplay In Arizona

If you were to be asked who has the winningest record at The Accenture World Match Play Tournament, the lions share of fans whould guess defending champion Tiger Woods would have to be the man. Well he’s close, but there’s one golfer ahead of him – Australia’s Geoff Ogilvy who will be contesting his third final in this event tonight against Englishman Paul Casey.

Both players have already notched up their first win of the season and as such it would seem their good form has continued this week. Ogilvy’s game has improved every day, and his 4 and 2 win over Stewart Cink in the semis included three birdies and an eagle in the last four holes to completely shut the American out.

He has proved himself time and again to be one of the games great matchplay exponents and when asked the reason for this, he explains his success has much to do with his ability to handle the pressure moments, which occur with more regularity during a matchplay tournament

“You could go all year and not have a must-make putt. I’ve had 15 this week,” Ogilvy said. “So we play golf to put ourselves in these situations. It’s so enjoyable to hit good shots and to get those situations. You feel the pressure as much in the first-round match on the 13th hole as you do sometimes on the 13th hole on Sunday.”

Paul Casey is no slouch himself in the format, as evidenced by his victory at the 2006 HSBC World Matchplay event and his strong showing this week. And he’s comfortable playing with Ogilvy – the pair are good friends and members of the same golf club, Whisper Rock in Arizona.

In fact the two of them ventured across to Tucson together last week to check the course out for the first time. They are both finding it a little surreal to have each progressed to the final where they will play each other again – this time with just a little more at stake than a friendly wager.

The bookies have installed Ogilvy as a firm favourite, and you’d have to agree that is where the smart money would be.

Crooksy

Trent Barrett Returns

I’ve spent the last few years living and working overseas during the Australian winter, and this often makes it tough to keep up to date with everything that happens on the domestic football scene – NRL, Super Rugby, AFL etc. Somehow in my time away the Cronulla Sharks have emerged as a top four team and it kind of took me back to the days of ET, Gavin Miller and Sparkles McGaw.

The thing about the Sharks over this period was that they had some great teams, but never managed to get their act together during the post-season. The perfect example of this was 1988 season where they finished as minor premiers but were bundled out with successive losses to Canterbury and Balmain.

And I was looking at the current Sharks team wondering if they’re going to experience the same problems. Personally, I think this may be the year they finally see some success. Now I’m not confident that they will win the tournament, but I think they have moved ahead of Melbourne, and should be installed as second favourites for the competition in behind Manly.

The thing is they could also crash and burn this season, having set their standards high after a third place finish on the ladder in 2008. The key to their results will be how the team adapts to losing Brett Kimmorley, and gaining Trent Barrett. Kimmorley tends to be a little underrated in the intangible aspects he brings to a side’s performance. Not only is he an excellent half back and playmaker, he is an exceptional leader and the kind of player that rallies others around him.

The good news for the Sharks is that they aren’t losing too much in this respect with the return of Barrett to the NRL. A good start to the season for Barrett may seem him rushed back in to the NSW team in an attempt to stop the QLD juggernaut. He was named Super League Player’s Player in ’07 so his game is obviously in good shape. It will all depend on how quickly he can re-adapt to the speed of the NRL.

Ricky Stuart has now been relieved of his Australian coaching duties, and you can guarantee that he will be striving to ensure his team perform well this season. They have made some good signings in Barret, Anthony Tupou and Reni Maitua – and I’m sure Stuart will be riding Maitua hard to make sure he has none of the off field incidents that have plagued his career so far.

The Sharks did cop a 40-16 thumping the other night in Darwin at the hands the Golf Coast Titans in wet, humid conditions. But that was a trial match…in Darwin. While the Titans may be a surprise package this season, I think you’ll see a different Sharks performance when they meet for their only match towards the end of the regular season.

The Sharks made the best possible start to their season in 2008 by beating both eventual grand finalists in the first two rounds of the competition. If they can emulate that start this year, they will set themselves up for a good season and a possible run at the title.

Current Odds To Win The Premiership – $9-11

How Far Can Bennett Take The Dragons?

The obvious talking point with the St. George Illawarra Dragons this year is how much of an effect Wayne Bennet can have in his first season as coach. The general consensus over the last couple of years has been that nathan Brown just didn’t seem to command the respect that is required to get that extra 5-15% effort from the players at training and on the pitch which means the difference between a top four team and an also-ran.

This is understandable and is in no way a reflection on the character or coaching ability of Brown – his coaching began in 2003 with him taking charge of many of his ex-teamates. It was only natural that there were going to be difficulties in making the transition from player to coach at the same club at such a young age (he was just 29 when he took the reins).

And I’m sure everyone involved will tell you that it wasn’t really a factor. But they’d be kidding themselves, of course it was a factor. There are attitudes that just gradually seep into a team’s mentality over time without anyone realizing it is happening. He wasn’t able to properly assert his authority early on, and his tenure as coach had that as its foundation.

Wayne Bennett understands that, and this can be seen in the approach that he has taken from the outset. At the Bronco’s he had strong player leaders at all times, so his role was more as overseer rather than taskmaster. From all reports he has imposed himself in a very direct way from the start of his term at the Dragons, and is obviously attempting to instill a new culture into his squad of players from which he can build successful campaigns over the next couple of years.

There is also that intangible factor, an aura that comes as a result of Bennett’s success and experience. Always a talented squad, the Dragons may have had nagging doubts in the past about training methods, strategies etc. When you have one of the all time great coaches in charge, all doubts about those sort of things are immediately banished. Players know that they just have to focus their attentions on their skills, fitness and teamwork – Bennett will take care of the rest.

The Dragons have looked good so far in the pre-season, but it is just that…the pre-season. I do however find it interesting that the Dragons finished 7th last year, and are currently around the same in the betting. While it is probably too much of an ask for them to go all the way this year, signs are good that they are on the improve and will more than likely cause some upsets this year.

The Dragons face the Storm, Sharks and Broncos in the first 4 weeks of the competition – a very tough ask, and we will know at the end of that first month how good this team can be this season.

Current odds to win the premiership – $13.00

The NRL season kicks off in a little less than a month, and the bookies have pretty much gone with last years top eight to finish in around the same positions this year with the two noticeable exceptions being the Raiders and the Cowboys. After finishing the ’08 regular season in sixth position, the bookies have given the Raiders little chance of a top eight finish this year and are rated as being just good enough to avoid the wooden spoon

The Cowboys on the other hand have been installed as top six material, even after their 2008 season finished with them barely avoiding the wooden spoon as a result of a superior points difference. Much of this has to do with the return of Matt Bowen to the team, and that extra strike power at fullback will be enhanced by the addition of Willie Tonga to the centres. Thurston will have more options than he did last year, and this should see the team finish higher up the ladder.

Over the next couple of weeks I’ll take a look at the teams with the greatest chance this year and see how this year may be better or worse for them than ’08. Injuries and player movements are always a factor as new players settle in at teams, and new combinations are tested.

One things is for sure, just as at the start of last year everyone believes the teams to beat are the 2008 grand finalists the Storm and the Sea Eagles, with bookies even offering odds on these two against the field. Outside of the top two, betting is very even from three through seven, and 2009 is shaping up as quite an interesting season.

I’m a Bulldogs fan, so things can’t get any worse for us this year – I don’t think. The addition of Kimmorley should have a steadying influence on a team torn apart by personnel problems in 2008. A new coach and playmaker should settle things down for a good rebuilding season.

As always the rep season in the middle of the year will have an impact and teams that can come through this stretch in good position really set themselves up for a good run at the post season.

The State Of Origin this year will be a real battle for NSW as they try to avoid the ignominy of being the first team ever to lose four straight series. The problem for them is that there has never been a QLD team with such talent so they will be facing an enormous challenge.

If you have any tips for the upcoming season feel free to add them below.