Sportsbet Blog

The NRL season kicks off in a little less than a month, and the bookies have pretty much gone with last years top eight to finish in around the same positions this year with the two noticeable exceptions being the Raiders and the Cowboys. After finishing the ’08 regular season in sixth position, the bookies have given the Raiders little chance of a top eight finish this year and are rated as being just good enough to avoid the wooden spoon

The Cowboys on the other hand have been installed as top six material, even after their 2008 season finished with them barely avoiding the wooden spoon as a result of a superior points difference. Much of this has to do with the return of Matt Bowen to the team, and that extra strike power at fullback will be enhanced by the addition of Willie Tonga to the centres. Thurston will have more options than he did last year, and this should see the team finish higher up the ladder.

Over the next couple of weeks I’ll take a look at the teams with the greatest chance this year and see how this year may be better or worse for them than ’08. Injuries and player movements are always a factor as new players settle in at teams, and new combinations are tested.

One things is for sure, just as at the start of last year everyone believes the teams to beat are the 2008 grand finalists the Storm and the Sea Eagles, with bookies even offering odds on these two against the field. Outside of the top two, betting is very even from three through seven, and 2009 is shaping up as quite an interesting season.

I’m a Bulldogs fan, so things can’t get any worse for us this year – I don’t think. The addition of Kimmorley should have a steadying influence on a team torn apart by personnel problems in 2008. A new coach and playmaker should settle things down for a good rebuilding season.

As always the rep season in the middle of the year will have an impact and teams that can come through this stretch in good position really set themselves up for a good run at the post season.

The State Of Origin this year will be a real battle for NSW as they try to avoid the ignominy of being the first team ever to lose four straight series. The problem for them is that there has never been a QLD team with such talent so they will be facing an enormous challenge.

If you have any tips for the upcoming season feel free to add them below.

According to the bookies, there is not much chance of an Aussie team lifting the trophy this year. The nation’s talent is fairly evenly spread across the four teams, with perhaps the Brumbies being the best chance of a top four berth

Western Force

The pre-season for the Force has been full of controversy with thirty of thirty six players, and ten staff members signing a petition to do with the erratic behaviour of coach John Mitchell. This has resulted in him being relieved of his role as a selector leaving him to focus his attentions on his coaching. He is widely acknowledged as an excellent coach, so as long as their is no hangover from this turmoil, it may all work in the favour of the Force.

The Force have a true superstar in Matt Giteau, but he is just one man. There is lack of quality in the pack, particularly the big men up front, and against some of the bigger packs the Force may struggle to get their fair share of possession.

They finsihed the ’08 season in the middle of the pack, and chances are they will end up around the same spot this year.

Queensland Reds

All the talk in the last week or so from the Qld camp has been about this year being the year they shrug off the (massive) underachiever tag and finally string some wins together. There is undoubtably talent there, and the team will be looking towards Berrick Barnes to lead the way. Add to this a fast maturing Quade Cooper and you have an inside backs combination that will be good to watch this season.

Across the park the Reds have quality players without really having any superstars. A potential superstar is Hugh McMenniman, but is body has been his worst enemy over the past couple of seasons. If he can stay fit he could be the factor that determines which half of the table the Reds end the season in.

Look for them to finish better than last season, but cracking the top six may be a challenge.

Waratahs

The Waratahs were the runner-up in last year’s competition, but it would be a big shock if they were to make it that far this season. They have suffered huge losses to their forward pack with Rocky Elsom, Dan Vickerman and David Lyons heading overseas as well as injuries to Dunning and Kepu. This leaves Palu, Baxter and Waugh to lead the way for the less experenced forwards.

The NSW backline oozes talent with the likes of Kurtley Beale, Lachie Turner and Rob Horne all looking for big seasons this year. Throw in Tuquiri and a hopefully injury free Timana Tahu and you’ve got a backline more than capable of racking up big numbers…as long as they get the ball. And this will depend on how the newly formed forward pack goes.

Will be a challenging season for first time Super Rugby coach, Chris Hickey.

Brumbies

With a squad boasting nine Wallabies, the Brumbies will be looking to finish higher than their ninth placing from last year. They have had a full season to emerge from the shadow left by the departure of Larkham and Gregan and can no longer use that as an excuse for lacklustre performances.

In an interesting move Stephen Hoiles has been named as captain ahead of Mortlock & George Smith which may give those two players a little more freedom to play their best rugby.

There would seem to be a slight weakness at fly-half, and how this role is filled wll go a long way to determining how well the Brumbies go this season. The back row of Hoilies, Smith and Julian Salvi will ensure plenty of ball gets to the halves. As long as the halves are good enough to deliver quality ball to the centre pairing of Mortlock and Ashley-Cooper, the Brumbies will be o.k

Crooksy

The bookies have deinitely looked to the Land of the Long White Cloud this year, with four of the five teams rated as a likely top six finisher.

Crusaders

Yet another Super 14 season begins with the crusaders installed as favourites to win the tournament. And with their track record you’d be a brave man to rule them out. But this year will be a testing one for the boys from Canterbury with Robbie Deans and Dan Carter gone. While the forward pack has retained it’s hard edge, the back line just does not seem as potent, and other teams in the comp will defintiely be trying to expoit this during the 2009 season.

As usual Ritchie McCaw will be their talismanic leader, and his inspiration will be required if they are to maintain their strangle hold over the Super 14 tournament.

Hurricanes

Without a doubt the biggest under achievers of the Super Rugby tournament since its inception. I kind of liken them to the Pakistan cricket team from a few years back. Loads of potential and if the ‘A’ team showed up they could take the game away from anyone.

Well this year could be the year they finally live up to their potential. They have been installed by bookies as second favourites, but in reality that is more because any bookie who’s been in the game a while is too scared to offer odds of any sort on the Crusaders.

I think the Hurricanes are the team to beat this year. Boasting no fewer than 11 All Blacks they have a great mix of experience and talent. They came close last year with a semi-final loss to the eventual winners and a grand final appearance is probably the least they are aiming for this season.

Blues

Back line defenders will probably fear this team the most in the 2009 tournament. Their back three of Rockocko, Tuitavake and Toeava have the ability to wreak havoc (and cause embarassment) amongst any opposition.

They have a new coach in Pat Lam, and there is a sense that this team is nearing it’s peak. They would have been disappointed with their 6th place finish from last year, and will make strong claims for a finals berth.

In Kevin Mealamu they have an energetic leader of this dynamicteam who pride themselves on their exciting style of play. If they are able to add enough substance to their style, they could be a big threat in this year’s tournament.

Chiefs

A stange year in 2008 saw the Chiefs beat the eventual winners…and lose to the eventual wooden spooners. If that’s not the definition of inconsistency then I don’t know what is. They finished 7th in the end and will be looking for more consistent performances this season.

There is strength in the backs with speed to burn, but it is in the forwards that players must step forward and improve if the Chiefs are to gain ground on their rivals. With no marquee names to build around, they must look to perform as a unit and at the very least hold their own against the premiere packs of the compettion. This will give their potent scoring weapons such as Mils Muliaina and Sitiveni Sivivatu, a chance to demonstrate what they can do to the opposition

Highlanders

The least likely of the Kiwi teams to finish on the top four, their problem at the moment is more one of experience as opposed to talent. While they should look to finish higher than their 11th position reuslt from last year, 2009 may be a year of growth for this team as players mature and find their feet at this level.

Many of their losses from last year were close affairs, and as the team matures they will gain more wins from these tight encounters. The experience of scrum half Jimmy Cowan will be vital to their progress this year.

With the RBS Six Nations beginning last weekend, and the Super 14 kicking off on Friday the rugby season is truly upon us. I thought this week I’d take a quick look at the Super 14 and go through country by country and maybe offer up some insight into how each team is looking for the season ahead.

I’ll start off with the South Africa teams.

Sharks

The Sharks have recently employed the services of league great Andrew Johns as a coaching consultant, and Johns has come away very impressed with the set-up and approach of the Durban based outfit. He is of the opinion that the Sharks can give the tournament a real shake this year, and the bookies would seem to agree installing them as third favourites to lift the trophy at the end of May.

Last year’s success was based around their amazing start to the season with their first loss coming in round 10. Things will be tougher this year with 5 of their first 6 games away from home. If they come through this stretch in the top four look for them to take a home final and anything can happen from there.

Bulls

On paper the Bulls should always win more than half of their games. They have a strong Springbok presence, and should improve on last years embarassing season where they finished tenth and took some extreme punishment in a couple of home games against the Crusaders and the Hurricanes.

Look for Pierre Spies to lead the team this year to much better performances – he is the sort of player who inspires others to raise their own game, and a top four berth is possible if he has a strong season. Habana is a player who will need to lift his form a little to produce the magnificent finishing we all know he is capable of.

Stormers

The Stormers had a good season last year finishing equal fourth place with the Hurricanes and missing out on a finals berth due to an inferior points difference. They will need to lift again this season if they are to emulate their efforts from ’08. Andries Bekker is probably their stand out player and ranks amongst the top open side flankers in world rugby.

Half Ricky Januarie had a great season last year and his performances this year will be a major determinant in how far the Stormers can go. Percy Montgomery is still running around, and his experience at the back will be of great value to the explosive backline the Stormers field.

Bookies have them middle of the pack, and this is probably about right.

Lions & Cheetahs

Fought it out for the wooden spoon last year, and there is really nothing to indicate that this year will be any different. If you know something I (and every other rugby fan) doesn’t know about either of these teams, then by all means take the massive odds on offer e.g Lions $29 to finish in the top 4.

In the next post I’ll take a look at the always strong New Zealand teams, with some of them losing key players that may have an effect on their success this year.

Craig Crooks