Sportsbet Blog

See 2010 Round 10 Footy Tips here

What a week of footy last week was! The two top teams just managed to scratch victories together making the competition even more level for the year. Saying that though, both St Kilda and Geelong are now four games clear of third place and if their form continues over the next few weeks the top two spots will be almost sealed for the rest of the season. In my view round tens match of the round is Essendon V Geelong. I think Essendon will be able to get a good start in this game making for a super match.

Sports Bet of the Round

This weeks bet of the round is Bulldogs, Freo, Hawks and Collingwood to win in a Multi bet. I think they all have decent chances to get up for a win this weekend and paying around $5.80 with Sportsbet is well worth a few dollars. It’s also worth noting that when you signup with Sportsbet they give you a $50 free bet to place on anything, just for signing up!

Carlton V West Coast, Friday Night at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Carlton

This should be a pretty close game. West Coast played hard footy last week but faded out towards the last quarter. With Jarrad Waite now out for the season either Sentana O’hAilpin or Brad Fisher need to stand up and contest the ruck against big man Dean Cox. This is where the game win be won or lost for Carlton but I feel they have the class in the midfield to make up for what they will lack at the stoppages that should see them win. My prediction here is around 15 points.

Western Bulldogs V Sydney, Saturday at Manuka Oval

Tip: Western Bulldogs

The Bulldogs will be out for blood this weekend after the loss to Geelong. They would have taken alot of positives out of last weeks game that should see them run over the top of Sydney. Lets hope Brad Johnson has had some kicking practice…

North Melbourne V Brisbane Lions, Saturday at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Brisbane

Brisbane probably should have beaten the top of the ladder Saints last week. They showed great talent getting the ball forward while slowing the Saints down at the same time. Watch out for Simon Black in the middle, his precision and speed makes him a key player to winning this weekend.

Fremantle V Richmond, Saturday Night at Subiaco

Tip: Fremantle

Freo should have a good win at Subico. The Tigers have thrown the white towel in and the big trip over will only worsen things. Richmond will enjoy the weekend out of Victoria where the media pressure wont be present. Luke McPharlin had a great game kicking four goals last week which should see him deeper forward this week.

St Kilda V Melbourne, Saturday Night at Gold Coast Stadium

Tip: St Kilda

The Saints have been a little flat in the last few weeks so this game should be a good pick-me-up. The Melbourne youngsters are no match for St Kildas line up and will struggle kicking a score. Clinton Jones is having a steller season which has cemented his place in the Saints side. Expect another good game from him this week.

Adelaide V Hawthorn, Sunday at AAMI Stadium

Tip: Hawthorn

The Hawks are slowly building form with each game they play which should see them overcome the Crows at AAMI stadium, even with Buddy or is that “Tubby” Franklin not bothering the score keepers as much as last year. Beau Muston has recovered nicely after enduring three knee reconstructions in the last few years and getting a game high 31 possessions last week.

Essendon V Geelong, Sunday at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Geelong

Don’t blink or you will miss a goal! It will be a very fast paced straight through the middle type of game. Geelong should be able to hold Essendon off enough to win but I think it will be much closer than first thought. Andrew Lovett and Alwyn Davey are super quick that will make for a great spectacle against the leagues best.

Collingwood V Port Adelaide, Sunday at the MCG

Tip: Collingwood

The Pies need to start winning at home if they are going to make an attack on the top four this year. Collingwood members would be furious as they have only won one home game this year but are winning games out of Victoria. They have reshuffled their line up due to numerious injuries and are starting to be accustom to their new rolls. There is also word that Paul Medhurst, Alan Didak and Dale Thomas may be available to play this week.

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Melbourne may be sitting at the very bottom of the ladder with just one win to their name, but they are certainly showing enough to suggest that last place is not where they will end up.  In round 8 against the Western Bulldogs Melbourne were the better tean for the majority of the game. It took a dissapointing third quarter and an inspired performance from veteran Jason Akermanis to give the Bulldogs a 104 to 97 victory. Akermanis turned back the clock scoring four goals and taking 19 touches adding to the call from Doggies fans for him to continue playing for a few more years yet.

Akermanis to win the Brownlow? Get your free bet from sportsbet now.

Round 8 saw reigning premiers Hawthorn put their season back on track with an 87 to 65 victory over Fremantle. Last years 100 goal man Buddy Franklin looked back to his best scoring four majors. While both Stuart Dew and Brent Guerra showed their amazing technical skills helping to pick apart the Fremantle defence almost at will. The only up side for Fremantle was the continued good form of captain Matthew Pavlich, but the man can’t do it all on his own.

You can get odds of $6.00 for Hawthorn to retain the title as well as a free bet at sportsbet.com.au

Even without Garry Ablett Geelong look pretty much unbeatable. In this round 8 demolition of North Melbourne the Cats scored 18 goals with 10 different goal scorers. In the first term alone they amassed 137 touches destroying The Kangaroos with their creativity and guile.

At $2.00 they are the hot favourites  to reclaim the flag and it would take a brave man to bet against them.

The Bribane Lions continued their good form under new coach Michael Voss with a 119 to 83 victory over The Adelaide Crows. Despite being behind at half time an amazing performance by Justin Sherman and four goals in the 3rd quarter from Daniel Bradshaw saw The Lions Collect their 5th win of the season and cement their place in the top eight. There was a downside for Voss’s boys though as Daniel Merrett, Jed Adcock and Joel Patfull all finished off the field. Adelaide will have to pick up their game in the coming weeks as they now have a 3 and 5 record and sit 12th on the ladder.

Adleide are $26.00 to turn their season around and claim the flag. Get your free bet at sportsbet.com

The round 8 tie between West Coast and Sydney promised alot, and in keeping with the great games we have seen so far this year the two teams didn’t disappoint. Only a few poinst seemed to seperate the sides all night before Sydney came out with a noarrow 106 to 101 victory. Adam Goodes was back to his devastating best for the Swans with three goals and 26 possesions. Josh Kennedy proved to be a handful all night and bagged three goals, but it wasn’t quite enough to get the Eagles what would have been an excellent and much needed 4 points. West Coast are now two places outside the 8 in 10th, while Sydney have jumped in to 9th.

You can get odds of $5.50 on West Coast missing out on the 8 all together and a free bet at sportsbet.com.au

Warren Tredrae put in a stella performance against a luckless Richmond side who not only lost the game after Tredrae scored his 7th goal in the dying seconds, but they also lost their star recruit Ben Cousins after he broke his hand. Cousins had only just returned from a hamstring injury and is now certain to miss round 9 after an operation to put a metal plate on the broken bone.  Tredrae’s seven goals gave Port Adelaide a 102 to 99 victory, which keeps them in the top four.

Richmond are at $2.35 to gain their second win of the season against Essendon in round 9

Carlton youngster Bryce Gibbs feels that captain Chris Judd is in Brownlow medal winning form and after his performance in round 8 against Collingwood many people agree, as Judd grabbed himself one goal, 32 possesions and four goal assists. But Judd wasn’t the only great performer for the Blues who sent a resounding message to the rest of the teams with a 104 to 53 thumping of Collingwood, on their day they are as good as anyone.

Carlton are at $2.50 to finish in the top four. Well worth your free bet at sportsbet.com.au

St Kilda remain top of the ladder with an unblemished 8-0 record, but this was certainly their toughest test of the season. Essendon found them selves 28 points down after the first quarter but they never gave in. Captain Matthew Lloyd caused the Saints back line problems and scored three goals as did rising star Jay Neagle, but it wasn’t enough and the Bombers end round eight in eighth place.

Get your free bet on The Saints winning the flag at sportsbet.com.au

Round nines footy predictions won’t be as straight forward as last weeks. The bookies took a battering with all favourites winning last round. This week I think a few outsiders have a great chance of getting up, making for a top round of footy.

Sports Bet of the Round

There are some good odds for this weeks tip. This week I recommend Freo, Adelaide and West Coast in a multi bet that at Sportsbet will pay around $7.00. Currently they have an offer where you get a $50 bet just for signing up which would make a handy profit for this weeks bet of the round.

Geelong V Western Bulldogs, Friday Night at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Geelong

Friday night brings the game of the round with two of the top four teams battling it out. The Bulldogs play well against Geelong as we saw in the finals series last year. They didn’t let Geelong play their flowing game and only went down by a few straight kicks. Jason Akermanis is showing great form and should trouble the Cats midfield but with Robert Murphy out through injury I don’t think they have enough depth to match the unbeaten Geelong.

North Melbourne V Fremantle, Saturday at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Fremantle

This is a tough one to pick. Sportsbet have set North at 1.77 favourite but personally I think Freo have what it takes to get over the Kangaroos. Big Matthew Pavlich is playing great footy at the moment that will suit Etihad Stadium. Aaron Sandilands continues to own his opposition with a massive 41 hit outs last weekends.

Adelaide V Carlton, Saturday at AAMI Stadium

Tip: Adelaide

This game is another one where I think the bookies may have it wrong. The Crows play decent footy at home and Carton have yet to prove they can win out of Victoria this year. Sportsbet have Carton as clear favorites at 1.65 to the Crows 2.20, it might be worth chucking a few dollars on the Crows this weekend as I think the bookies have underestimated Adelaide. I’ve picked the Crows to win in a hard battle.

West Coast V Collingwood, Saturday Night at Subiaco Stadium

Tip: West Coast

Collingwood are in shambles at the moment with the team riddled with injuries and Mick Malthouse’s sacking being called for by some parts of the media. Majority of AFL supporters will be happy with the way things are going with the Pies especially after the flogging against arch rivals Carlton last weekend. West Coast is a solid team with alot of potential that come the end of the year could see them take part in the finals this year. Lets hope the Eagles can make it three big losses in a row for the Pies!

Richmond V Essendon, Saturday Night at the MCG

Tip: Essendon

The Dons really pushed the Saints last week winning three of the four quarters but couldn’t quite put a few goals together. This weeks “Dream time” match should see the Dons do it easier and will continue to play a very fast straight down the middle game. This will catch out the Tigers midfield giving some clear inside 50 entries to Matthew Lloyd. Richmond’s nightmare season continues with a three point loss last week after leading with seconds to go, the speculation of coach Terry Wallace’s sacking earlier this week and now looking at another loss in this big game.

Sydney V Port Adelaide, Sunday at the SCG

Tip: Sydney

Sportsbet have Sydney as 1.60 favourites which looks about right. Port are still yet to prove their critics that they are a contender this year with inconsistency in past weeks. Warren Treadrea continues to hold up the Port team and Barry Hall is starting to get a fair bit of the ball for Sydney which could see a goal shootout from both ends. The Swans senior players Adam Goodes, Rhyce Shaw and Jude Bolton will be the key to Sydney winning and if all three are on song the Swans should win comfortably.

St Kilda  V Brisbane, Sunday at Etihad Stadium

Tip: St Kilda

St Kilda should continue their winning ways against the Lions on Sunday. Although the Saints look likely to win this weekend there is plenty of value for Brisbane with the bookies. Sportsbet have set the Lions at $5 which I think is pretty long odds. St Kilda may have some problems with the Brisbane forward line made up of Jonathan Brown and Daniel Bradshaw, which could see the game being much closer than first thought. The added incentive of the 200th game for Lenny Hayes and the announcement of long term dedication from Nick Riewoldt after signing a four year deal should see them get over the line.

Hawthorn V Melbourne, Sunday at the MCG

Tip: Hawthorn

Last week the Hawks showed some signs of returing form and this game should be a walk in the park for them. Arron Davey and Cale Morton both show that Melboure can play decent footy but they lack team effort which is needed to win especially against last year premiers. Hawks by 40+ points

Theres only one real standout game in round eight worth tuning in for with arch rivals Collingwood and Carlton going head to head. This should be a great game, both teams are looking to cement a spot into a top four and both play a great brand of attacking football. The Essendon V St Kilda may also be worth a look but I suspect that a poor Essendon side to turn up on the day and will be crushed by the Saints pressure game style.

Sports Bet of the Round

This week I recommend a multi bet with the following teams. Brisbane, Sydney, Collingwood and St Kilda. All teams are destine to have a win and should pay around $8 . I also recommend Sportsbet for all your footy bets. I’ve found they have the best odds around for all the games and they also double your first deposit when joining with them. Find out more info on this here.

Fremantle V Hawthorn, Friday Night at Subiaco Oval

Tip: Hawthorn

This is a hard one to pick. On one hand I think that playing in Perth, Freo should have a win against a undermanned and out of form Hawks side. But on the other I can see the Hawks get their act together and start playing the footy they are known for. I’ve gone with the latter and think the Hawks should get the points. It was also interesting to see that the bookies have still set the Hawks as third favourite for the flag even after their rocky start to the season.

Melbourne V Western Bulldogs, Saturday at the MCG

Tip: Western Bulldogs

This ones a no brainer, the Doggies will have a nice win this weekend that should see them cement a top four position on the ladder. Melbourne have done everything except wave the white flag as they look towards the future playing youth and trying new game plans. Watch for Adam Cooney and Nathan Eagleton to both have big possession games, Melbourne will struggle to hold down any of fast paced midfielders from Bulldogs.

Geelong V North Melbourne, Saturday at Skilled Stadium

Tip: Geelong

Another Skilled Stadium game = another win for the Cats. Steve Johnson has taken the injured Gary Ablett’s position nicely with a definite 3 Brownlow vote performance with four goals and eleven marks last weekend. They have a huge presence all over the ground that would leave any coach scratching his head when trying to match up the classy unit. Geelong by 45+

Brisbane V Adelaide, Saturday Night at the Gabba

Tip: Brisbane

On paper Adelaide may be having their worst year on record with the team notching up a never seen before four straight losses at AAMI stadium. Brisbane on the other hand have only dropped one at home and had a nice win last week at the MCG. Brisbane seem to be playing as a team and are all in a good zone together which makes for some fast precise footy. Jonathan Brown and Daniel Bradshaw continue to be a handy forward duo providing easy targets for the Lions midfielders.

Sydney V West Coast, Saturday Night at ANZ Stadium

Tip: Sydney

This should be a close scoring game with both teams needing a win to keep in touch of the pack. Darren Jolly had a poor game against the Cats last weekend where he was considerably beaten in the hitout count so expect a big game from him against big man Dean Cox. With Daniel Kerr our for a couple of months West Coast will have a few problems in the middle that will play into Sydney’s hands especially Jude Bolton will his high tackling pressure. This is where the game will be won and I think the Swans will get over the line.

Port Adelaide V Richmond, Sunday at AAMI Stadium

Tip: Port Adelaide

Although Port lost last weekend they played pretty well in Melbourne and should take it step further at AAMI stadium. Even with Ben Cousins back playing half a game and decent games from both Joel Bowden and Nathan Foley they cant kick a winning score so I have trouble finding any light at the end of the tunnel for the Tigers. Port are showing good form and currently sit fourth on the ladder and a hapless Richmond sit fifteenth with only one win on the board. Warren Tredrea continues to prove his critics wrong with a handy three goals and seven marks on his last outing.

Collingwood V Carlton, Sunday at the MCG

Tip: Carlton

An interesting stat for this game is over the last seven rounds whoever St Kilda has beaten the week before has had a win the following round. I was at the game on Monday night against St Kilda and if the Pies play anything like they did then this stat will be blown out of the water. Suspect knee injuries to both Fraser and Swan will make it even harder for the Pies. Both teams are at level pegging on the ladder at seventh and eighth spots so this result will be very important come the end of the season. Carlton by a comfortable 24 points.

Essendon V St Kilda, Sunday at Etihad Stadium

Tip: St Kilda

As mentioned in the first paragraph I think Essendon will come to the game in a poor mind set and fall to the Saints pressure from all over the ground. St Kilda are going nicely at the moment and I can’t see an inconsistent team in the Bombers stopping them. Nick Dal Santo and Leigh Montagna both had exceptional games on Monday with 38 possessions so expect a similar proformance from them this weekend.

If anyone needed reminding just why AFL is the greatest sport on earth all they have to do is watch the round 6 tie between Hawthorn and Carlton. The sides seemed inseparable and went in to the final quarter with just one point between them. It was here that Hawthorn seemed to have the game wrapped when Buddy Franklin and Stuart Dew scored five majors between them to give the Hawks a 25 point advantage. But Carlton never gave in and Judd, Murphy, Gibbs and co replied with three unanswered goals to get themselves within five points. In the dying seconds Brendon Fevola, who had missed an easy chance early in the first quarter, found himself thirty yards from goal with an opportunity to claim and amazing victory. At this point he had kicked an impressive 8 goals 3, but it just wasn’t to be. Fev left punters all around the country kicking whatever was closest to them as his shot dipped and swerved only to hit the post, giving Hawthorn a 106 to 102 victory.

Round 6 also saw St Kilda continue their 100% start to the season and cemented their status as Geelong’s main rivals for the 2009 flag. The Saints were extremely wasteful in the first quarter kicking 3 goals 7, but they soon clicked in to gear with Nick Dal Santo playing a vital role in what was his 150th game. Nick Riewoldt continued his amazing season by scoring another 4 goals as he terrorised the Doggies defence all afternoon and proved that he could be a good outside bet for the Brownlow. The 104 to 76 defeat is the Bulldogs third in a row, but they definitely showed enough in this game to not be counted out just yet.

Garry Ablett went in to Geelong’s match against the Demons as the hottest Brownlow favourite since betting was allowed on the medal. So punters all over the country were left crying in to their meat pies when the star limped from the field with a suspected groin injury. Ablett will miss at least three weeks of action confirming many people’s fears and lengthening his Brownlow odds ever so slightly. The injury to Ablett was the only downside to another dominant Cats display. Paul Chapman, Jimmy Bartel and Joel Selwood all racked up over 30 possessions in the 111 to 68 win at the MCG. The win continues Geelong’s 100% start to the season. But they can only slot in to second place behind St Kilda, while another loss sees the Demons in a world of trouble at the bottom of the ladder.

Elsewhere in Round 6. Collingwood bounced back from last week’s disappointing defeat against Essendon, defeating North Melbourne 127 to 75. The Pies are looking good and could be a good bet to hand St Kilda their first defeat of the season in round 7.

Dustin Fletcher’s 300th game for the Bombers will definitely be one he would rather forget. After limping off with a hair line fracture in his leg, he then had to watch Brisbane Lions Captain Jonathan Brown lead his side to a 43 point win. After round 6 both sides have a patchy 3 and 3 record with the Lions sitting 9th and Essendon 10th.

The Tigers tried to back up their round 5 win over North Melbourne with a good performance against Sydney. They showed a lot of spirit coming back from 27 points down at half time to get within 6 points in the final quarter, only to fall away losing by just 15 points.

West Coast Vs Freemantle was the first of two derbies in round 6. West coast led at half time, but wasteful kicking saw them finish on 9.20.74 while Freemantle and Captain Matthew Pavlich playing his 200th game got over the line scoring 13.9.87.

Port Adelaide totally dominated their local rivals in the other round 6 derby. Warren Tredrea, Daniel Motlop and Robbie Gray all scored three goals a piece to seal a 105 to 79 victory over the Crows.

Round seven brings up two games of interest with Essendon V Hawks on Friday night and Collingwood V St Kilda on Monday night. The Hawks are looking like they are returning to their 2008 form with a very close win against a classy Blues outfit but the Bombers can show brilliance in big games and Friday night footy doesn’t get much bigger. A odd Monday night game will be played out against two of the leagues toughest teams in the Saints and Pies that will be well worth a look. The Pies know they are a half a chance to knock off the league leaders and will play a high pressure game.

Essendon V Hawthorn, Friday Night at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Hawthorn

This should be a interesting game. I think Essendon will play a very defensive game and will send alot of numbers back to fill the open areas in the Hawks attack stopping Buddy and Roughhead in the process. But as we have seen in the last 12 months it is easier said than done, and if the Hawthorn forward line can take only a few of the contested marks they will kick a winning score. Jobe Watson will be out to have another great game for the Dons after great 36 possessions last week.

Geelong V Sydney, Saturday at Skilled Stadium

Tip: Geelong

The Cats will eat the Swans alive at Skilled Stadium. Geelong match up Sydney all over the ground with an exception to Michael O’Loughlin who may cause some headaches for the Cats. I can see another 35 point plus win here.

Richmond V Brisbane, Saturday at the MCG

Tip: Richmond

Richmond are running out of opportunities to turn their disappointing start to the season around and I think this will be the game to make or break the Tigers. They have a decent list and the $2.05 odds Sportsbet are offering is a pretty good price. The Tigers play well at the MCG and if Jack Riewoldt can get into the game early they should be able to have a win even without the injured Matthew Richardson. Ben Cousins horror return to the game may continue with a sore looking Ben during his VFL game with Coburg. As pictured here Ben’s knees and calf were heavily iced up which Richmond officials said was for a precautionary measure only, but who knows.

North Melbourne V Port Adelaide, Saturday Night at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Port Adelaide

Port have the ability to play decent footy when it counts and these away games against middle grade teams are important for a top 4 finish this year. Both Kane and Chad Cornes are the keys to Port winning this weekend and I can’t see North having the answers to stop the skilled brothers.

Carlton V Fremantle, Saturday Night at the Gold Coast Stadium

Tip: Carlton

Fremantle will have to contend with both a strong Blues team and one of the longest flights for an AFL team when they play at the Gold Coast on Saturday night. This will be one of the deciding factors when they line up against Carton. Depending on how they have recovered during the week I think they will run out of legs towards the end of the game which should see Carton run over the top for a good win. Carton will also be out to make up for last weeks very disappointing loss to one of the best games so far this year after big Fev hit the post right on the siren handing the Hawks the victory. Watch out for a big bag of goals from Fevola (im sure he will be practicing his set shots this week!)

Adelaide V Western Bulldogs, Sunday at AAMI Stadium

Tip: Adelaide

Anyone who plays at AAMI stadium against the Crows will take a good part of a quarter to get started and I think this is where the Crows will set the play on their terms for the remainder of the game. The Crows will have learnt from the disappointing loss to Port last week in the “show down” and I predict they will bounce back with a win at home. Nathan Bock has not let recent assault charges effect his game since returning after a weeks ban. He has had a handy 26 possessions in both games giving them the depth they need in the half back line.

West Coast V Melbourne, Sunday at Subiaco Stadium

Tip: West Coast

West Coast at Subiaco are near unstoppable even when they arn’t playing well and once again Melbourne will continue to have trouble holding down the opposition. Dean Cox will dominate as the Deamons struggle to find a decent full time ruckman. Arron Davey continues to put good games together for Melbourne and will be one to watch as he weaves his magic in the middle.

Collingwood V St Kilda, Monday Night at Edihad Stadium

Tip: St Kilda

St Kilda have been near perfect which wont give Colloingwood enough chances around the ground to cause turnovers. Saints will again be very hard at the ball and will try to get the winning margin early in the game as they have done on all occasions this season. Brendon Goddard is having his best year at the saints including a match high 33 possessions last week and should once again rule the defencive 50 mtr arc. Goddard maybe worth a small wager for the Brownlow Medal now that Ablett will miss a few weeks with injury, at the moment he is paying $17 at IASbet. IASbet also give a $100 free bet with a deposit of $50 or more which would be pefect for this Brownlow bet.

There a two standout games this weekend with Hawthorn and Carton going head to head with both clubs needing to answer to their critics. Hawthorn were less than convincing after a win against a bottom 8 side in the Eagles where they should have stretched the winning margin out alot more than 18 points.

The St Kilda V Bulldogs game is the match of the round with both teams destined to do well in 2009. This will be the biggest test for the Saints this season and the result will show if they can match it with the big teams after a perfect start to the year.

AFL Tip of the Week: For all the punters my tip of the round is Hawks, West Coast and Adelaide to win in a multi that at IASbet will pay around $6.30. You can place this bet on at IASbet and get a $100 free bet when depositing $50 or more.

North Melbourne V Collingwood. Friday night at Etihad Stadium

Selection: Collingwood

The Pies have had an average start to what was expected to be a real contender after making it to the pre-season final. After a disappointing loss to their arch rival Carton last week I think they will bounce back against the Roos and have a comfortable victory. Also with Brett Harvey out for up to 12 weeks through injury it will only make the task tougher for the Kangaroos.

Hawthorn V Carlton. Saturday at the MCG

Selection: Hawthorn

This should be a very high paced, high scoring game. Both clubs have fast game styles which makes for great footy. This game will ultimately come down to which team makes the most of the inside 50 entries that both teams are very good at creating. The big forwards in Fevola, Buddy Franklin and Roughhead will be the key to success and I think the Hawks will come out on top. With premiership players Stephen Gilham, Brent Guerra and Michael Osborne returning for the Hawks their form from last year will start to return.

West Coast V Fremantle. Saturday at Subiaco Oval

Selection: West Coast

West Coast are usually an unstoppable force in Subiaco and with the added hype of the local derby the Eagles should fly high over what looks to be another disappointing year for the Dockers. As I have said in previous tips never to tip Freo. The battle of the WA rucks will be worth a look with both Cox and Sandilands going head to head in the middle. Sandilands dominated the leagues top ruck Darren Jolly last weekend with 46 hitouts.

Brisbane V Essendon. Saturday Night at the Gabba

Selection: Brisbane

This one is tough to make a prediction but I think home ground advantage will come into play at the Gabba. Brisbane should make up for the huge loss to a top class Geelong outfit last weekend. Essendon are showing good spirit with three wins this year and a massive 5 point win against a skilled Collingwood side, but they will find it hard to play enough consistent footy to do it on a regular basis. The Lions will be out to put a stop to Brent Stanton after a gallant 34 touches of the football last weekend.

Port Adelaide V Adelaide. Saturday Night at AAMI Stadium

Selection: Adelaide

The other derby played this weekend is at AAMI stadium know as Showdown XXVI. Both South Australian teams are on 3 wins, 2 losses making this a must win for both clubs. The result will spring board the winner to a two game advantage over their rival and a likely top 4 position at the end of the week, where the loser will drop out of the 8. Tipping between them is hard, but I think Adelaide has enough class in the midfield with 7 players last week getting over 25 possessions and should account for Port in a low scoring match.

Sydney V Richmond. Sunday at the SCG

Selection: Sydney

Sydney should have an easy win over an unorganised Tigers team. The Tigers don’t seem to have a great deal of flow to their game which sees them get caught up in the mid field. Jolly should be the game breaker in the middle giving Sydney first use of the ball at stoppages.

Melbourne V Geelong. Sunday at the MCG

Selection: Geelong

The Cats are the team to beat this year and Melbourne don’t have the players or mindset to overcome majority of teams let alone the leagues top. Geelong should win by over 45 points, anything less would be a disappointing day for them. The umpires will have 3 Brownlow Medal points written for Gary Ablett before the game has started after a staggering 88 possessions in his last two games.

Western Bulldogs V St Kilda. Sunday at Edihad Stadium

Selection: St Kilda

This weeks game of the round will be a huge test for both clubs. I think if the Saints play with the confidence they have been playing with they will blow the game apart early in the match. The Dogs may cause a headache for the Saints across the wings with their speed and tackling pressure forcing errors and turnovers, but the they will struggle with inside 50 marking contests where it counts. Sam Fisher, Lenny Hayes and Jason Gram will be the ones to watch dominating the opposition every game this year

Round 5 has some great games starting with the Port V Saints, both teams are going better than expected and will be a big test for both teams. The Bulldogs V Blues game will also be another to watch with both teams having start studded lineups and exiting game styles. We should see what Carton is truly made of after that match.

Here are my predictions for Round 5

Port Adelaide V St Kilda. Friday Night at AAMI Stadium

Selection: St Kilda

This is one of the games on the weekend with both teams coming off great wins. Saints are in perfect form with a dream start of 4 wins and no losses and a percentage of over 200. This will be St Kilda’s biggest test so far with Port convincingly beating the 2008 premiers at the MCG last weekend. The saints have shown good form over in Adelaide a few weeks ago with a win against the Crows and I think this will see them play a confident attacking game that will show many weak spots in the Port lineup. Watch out for the Saints midfield with Lenny Hayes, Nick Dal Santo and Luke Ball all in super form.

Essendon V Collingwood. Saturday at the MCG

Selection: Collingwood

The Pies are playing good footy at the moment and this should continue against the Dons. An Essendon V Collingwood game is always huge and the players lift to the expectations of the day and I think the Pies have much more power and skill that will see them run over the top of Essendon early. Tarken Lockyer and Scott Pendlepury will likely be the game breakers with Scott’s tackling pressure and Tarkyn’s push forward they both will be ones to watch.

Hawthorn V West Coast. Saturday at Aurora Stadium

Selection: Hawthorn

Surely the Hawks can start to play as they did last year! They have been the surprise after 4 rounds with only 1 win to show for it after a steller 2008. Maybe they are still on the Premiership honeymoon but if they don’t win this weekend in Tazzie things will go very sour very quickly. They have the class and skill to heavily out weigh the Eagles it just depends what Hawks teams comes out to play. The Hawks play well at Aurora and all eyes will be looking for a winning score from both Lance “Buddy” Franklin and Jarryd Roughead usually produce.

Fremantle V Sydney. Saturday Night At Subiaco Oval

Selection: Sydney

If there’s one tip that can be made every week, its not to tip Freo. They continuously lose games they are favourite to win and this year they look to only disappoint more especially after last weeks thumping only scoring four goals, their second lowest score ever. This game will still be a tight finish that will be won in the ruck with the two best ruckmen in the comp Darren Jolly and Arron Sandilands.

North Melbourne V Richmond. Saturday night at Docklands Stadium

Selection: North Melbourne

Richmond are in crisis control and this will show in their game. I think Richmond will lose the game on their own rather than the Kangaroos winning it. Once again Ben Cousins along with Nathan Brown will be wondering about their futures in the game with the Tigers starting to look to youth rather than the six over 30 year old players Richmond have.

Geelong V Brisbane. Sunday at Skilled Stadium

Selection: Geelong

The Cats have continued their great form from last year and look near unbeatable especially at Skilled Stadium. Ablett has started the year off huge equaling the handball record of 33 in last weeks win against Adelaide. Brisbane will struggle to make a decent score with Johnathan Brown out of touch and Matthew Scatlett beating anyone who enters his defense.

Western Bulldogs V Carlton. Sunday at Docklands Stadium

Selection: Western Bulldogs

The Bulldogs played an ugly game last week in the Perth heat against the Eagles which on paper they should have easily won. Most people say any team that plays in WA will lose the next week due to the long traveling taking a toll on the body. I think they will overcome any slight strains and should have a decent win over an up and flying Carlton if they can stop the likes of Chris Judd and Fevola.

Melbourne V Adelaide. Sunday at the MCG

Selection: Adelaide

This ones a no brainer! Melbourne have had their one and only win for the season which will see Adelaide have a comfortable win over a struggling (both on and off the field) Demons side. Adelaide played a great 3 quarters against a classy Geelong unit last week to show good promise but failed to close the game out.

Footy tipping has become a serious past time with some people spending many hours studying the stats and ins and outs for each game to get an advantage for the weekends games. I’ve followed a few different tactics and stuck by them for the year to see if they are more successful than others.

Let the Bookies do the work for you!
The bookies know best so look at the odds for each game and go for the favourite every time, odds are you will come out on top.

They employ full time staff to assess each game very closely and change the odds as injuries or late inclusions happen pre game so make sure to check the odds and place your tips as close to the start of the game or the tipping cut off point as possible. If there is a game where both teams are paying the same odds go with the team with the higher ladder position, this was my rule I stuck at to get my tip.

The bookmaker method worked well and with least fuss as the tips were ready to be placed without having to research each game of each week.

Follow the Pros
There are heaps of celebrity tipsters that live and breath football. People like Rex Hunt and Mike Sheahan in the AFL always have there tips on the Internet, radio and in the newspapers. They are the ones that truly know how the game ticks and can usually pick the underdog winners. They have a big footy profile and this pressures them to be accurate as they are expected to know who is likely to win.

Follow your head, not your heart
When I first started tipping I couldn’t bring myself to tip against my team, this was a big mistake. Tipping my team when I knew they were going to be doing it tough cost me 4 or 5 games throughout the year which was very costly come the end of the season. Follow your head and look at it as a win-win situation if you tip against your team and they end up losing.

Taking all these tactics into account I found tipping with the bookmaker favourites a sure way to being on top or near to it. When a underdog does come up and win at least you know if anyone tipped them that they will most likely tip other non-winning underdogs through the season and not be a threat come the end of the year.

The best place for tipping online is at Sportsbet. Its free to enter and the winner get $250,000. They have heaps of prizes including weekly cash prizes totaling a massive $1,000,000. If you decide to bet with Sportsbet they give you a 100% free bet bonus on your first deposit up to $200.
To join Sportbet Million Dollar Tipping checkout their site here

Sportsbet Prize Table

St Kilda

The Saints are just about over the hill. They have been the “about there” club for the last few years and it’s time for them to do or die. Now that Robert Harvey has departed the Saints it may cause some insecurities to the midfield as his chip kicks into the forward 50 and quick movements have been the stability of St Kilda for many years. Brendon Godard is the key to the Saints side and should once again prove a headache for most forward area players.

If they can keep relatively injury free during the year they should do well as they know how to play good footy come the end of the year. They should win more games that losses but will struggle to keep up with the pace.

Prediction: 5th

Collingwood

The Pies seem to know how to keep to the top half of the ladder and have been the consistent team of the last few years and I don’t think this year will be an exception. They play a great brand of footy with loads of flair from players like Dale Thomas, Alan Didak and Leon Davis will give the Pies the edge over most teams this year.

Some of the senior players at Collingwood are in the twilight of their careers and we may see some retirements towards the end of the year. They have recruited well with players including Steele Sidebottom and Chris Dawes expected to step up and show the AFL world what they are made of.

Collingwood are a good bet as they usually win more games than lose, also a top 8 finish bet might be worth a look if the odds aren’t too short.

Prediction: 6th

Western Bulldogs

The Bulldogs are a small quick unit that makes it tough for any team to hold up but unfortunately I don’t think they can build on the great year they had in 2008. They may have a few injury worries this year in Jason Akermanis and Brad Johnson that could see them lose too much leadership and talent to replicate last year’s form.

The doggies have a quality list but I think they will show too many holes in their game plan this year. A player to look out for is Jarrod Harbrow, his explosive quickness and agility will keep the fans coming back.

Prediction 7th

Sydney

Sydney will again play their slow “soccer like” brand of footy. It has worked in the past so I can’t see them changing now. Although sometimes boring for the spectator the Swans will again have many close low scoring games that will take the full four quarters to decide a clear winner.

Barry Hall will show his brilliance again this year and during the off season I’d expect he has learned how to keep a level head during a game.

Irishman Tadhg Kennelly heading back home will hurt the Swans bringing the ball into the forward 50 which has been a strong point in the team’s game plan. What’s interesting about the Swans is that they are yet to bottom out, they have consistently finished up the ladder for consecutive years and may do so until their next real attack on the top four.

Prediction: 8th