Sportsbet Blog

Since late Tuesday night, more than 90% of bets placed with online bookmaker Sportsbet on the Federal Election have been on the Coalition.

The weight of bets has seen the Coalition’s price shorten from $4.25 into $3.75, while Labor’s price has eased from $1.20 out to $1.27.
“There’s no doubt Labor deserve to be favourites, however, we think the election race is closer than what the current odds suggest,” said Sportsbet’s Haydn Lane.

“It seems punters think the Coalition are ‘over the odds’ and are happy to invest on them at what may prove to be an inflated price.
“We turned the Coalition into $3.85 on Wednesday but it’s clear that punters were still happy to take those odds.
“The Coalition has accounted for more than 90 of the past 100 bets we’ve taken on the election.”

The biggest bet on the Coalition in the past 48 hours was $3000 at the odds of $3.85 to collect a possible $11,550 from a new member.
“One punter opened an account on Wednesday, deposited $3000 and placed the lot on the Coalition,” said Lane.
In Two Party Preferred Swing betting, a 1% – 1.99% swing to the Coalition has replaced a 0.001% – 0.99% swing to the Coalition as the new favourite.

Market odds courtesy of Sportsbet
2010 Federal Election – Winning Party
$1.27   Labor (out from $1.20 on Tuesday 27/7)
$3.75   Coalition (in from $4.25 on Tuesday 27/7)

2010 Federal Election – Two Party Preferred Swing
$13      3% or greater swing to Labor (in from $17)
$13      2% – 2.99% swing to Labor (out from $13)
$10      1% – 1.99% swing to Labor (out from $6.50)
$3.55   0 – 0.99% swing to Labor (out from $3.50)
$3.50   0.001% – 0.99% swing away from Labor (out from $3.25 – former favourite)
$3.10   1% – 1.99% swing away from Labor (in from $6 – current favourite)
$6.50   2% – 2.99% swing away from Labor (in from $8)
$9        3% or greater swing away from Labor (in from $16)

See the Sportsbet site here for the latest odds on the 2010 Federal Election

Round 18 will hopefully be a more successful week for us in the footy tipping with a few less upsets.

There isn’t any clear game of the round this  week but I think the Carlton V Collingwood game will once again live up to standards and be the most entertaining. The Pies can all but end Carlton’s season with a win here where Carlton has the chance to spoil the near perfect season for Collingwood and maybe start their demise in 2010, fingers crossed!

Best Bet for Round 18

This week I’m taking a simple Freo win bet, although at 1.42 it is pretty short but they are very likely to win the match.

Another great bet for this round is a straight out Richmond win at 2.44. A great way to ensure this win is to take up the new offer that Betfair has. Simply place your first bet with them and if it loses Betfair will refund that amount up to $50 cash.

Checkout the Betfair site for more info on this new offer.

Essendon V St Kilda Friday night at Etihad Stadium

Tip: St Kilda

Odds: Essendon 5.60 St Kilda 1.21

St Kilda will be out to reverse the result from earlier this season and get the win over Essendon. They also have the incentive of a top 4 spot as the teams below start to threaten. Both these points and the fact they are a much stronger and tight knit team will see them get over the line.

The even $2.00 line bet for Essendon is a 28.5 point head start. I think there’s plenty of value for them in this market as its likely St Kilda will try to put the freeze on for majority of the match.

Collingwood V Carlton Saturday at the MCG

Tip: Collingwood

Odds: Collingwood 1.21 Carlton 5.60

The Pies are very hard to exploit with a evenness across the whole team. This will be the biggest struggle for Carlton who have a few weaknesses around the ground.

My prediction is the Pies by 30 points. They will be out to extend their percentage to stop any chance of the other teams with a draw (St Kilda/Hawthorn) finishing above them.

Port Adelaide V Hawthorn Saturday at AAMI Stadium

Tip: Hawthorn

Odds: Port 3.40 Hawks: 1.39

The Hawks need to win majority of their games for the rest of the season to have any real chance in 2010 especially teams out of the top 8. The pretty much full strength Hawks should easily over come any Port Adelaide rally and get the win.

Keep an eye on Shaun Burgoyne, its his first game at AAMI Stadium since leaving SA and will be out to silence the crowd. I’m sure the Port boys will let him know they are there too.

Brisbane V Melbourne Saturday night at the Gabba

Tip: Brisbane

Odds: Brisbane 1.90 Melbourne 2.04

This is a true test for the Lions who have gone from top 4 form at the start of the season to be out of the 8 now. They should have the edge over Melbourne playing at home that should just get them over the line.

Melbourne will be confident of getting the result with Brad Green and James Frawley in All-Australian contention this year but I think the Lions in a close one.

Sydney V Geelong Saturday night at ANZ Stadium

Tip: Geelong

Odds: Sydney 4.90 Geelong: 1.25

Sydney have had a disappointing last month and I predict this to continue into this game.

Geelong has a full strength side and need to continue to win to regain the important 1st position on the ladder from Collingwood. This should give them the motivation to play the game out well.

Richmond V Adelaide Sunday at the MCG

Tip: Richmond

Odds: Richmond 2.44 Adelaide 1.68

Although the bookies think otherwise I expect Richmond to take the 4 points at the MCG.

They were up against it last week against the Pies but playing the Crows at the “G” will be a much better match up for them. The Tigers will have the belief they can win again as they did last month when they played some great football.

For those unsure if the Tigers can do it take the 7.5 point head start paying 2.00 at Betfair here.

Western Bulldogs V North Melbourne Sunday at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Bulldogs

Odds: Bulldogs 1.20 North 5.50

North will need to take risks this weekend to get over the Bulldogs and this is where it will come undone for them. They have been too inconsistent this year and will struggle with the Bulldogs run though the midfield.

The Bulldogs are great on the turn overs and will catch the Kangaroos out enough times to get  a comfortable win.

Bulldogs by 40 points.

Fremantle V West Coast Sunday at Subiaco Oval

Tip: Fremantle

Odds: Fremantle 1.42 West Coast 3.35

The Dockers will bounce back after a 82 point loss last week and be too good for the Eagles who will struggle with the run and carry of their opposition.

Chris Tarrant , Kepler Bradley and David Mundy are all expected to return to the Freo side and will make a massive difference to the way they go about it.

If you looking for a bet on this game I like Freo at the -22.5 point even $2 line. I think they will easily cover the points for us Sunday arvo.

See 2011 Round 17 2011 Tips Here

Round 17 will open with the match of the round with the up and flying Hawks V the Saints, its bound to be a match to remember with both clubs needing the win to ensure a good position going into the finals.

Another game I’ll be watching with interest is the Bulldogs V Freo game. Although the bookies haven’t given Freo much hope I think they might come out and surprise the Bulldogs in what could be a very close match.

Bets Bet of Round 17

This week I’m taking Richmond with a 39.5 point head start at 1.92. The Tigers will lose but I’m sure it will be well with in the 39 point buffer Sporting  Bet have given us to play with.

Sporting Bet have also just released a new free bet offer for new members. Simply make an account with them here and deposit $30 or more. Then your account will be instantly credited with a $100 Free Bet! Easy as that! Click here to join Sportingbet or to see more info on this great new promo.

St Kilda V Hawthorn Friday night at Etihad Stadium

Tip: St Kilda

Odds: St Kilda 1.82 Hawks 2.18

The Saints will be out to re-prove they are a premiership contender on Friday night after their poor effort against the Pies last week.

The Hawks are looking very dangerous especially in the big matches but I think the Saints will be at their best and get the win.

Keep an eye on Lance Franklin. He has struggled against the Saints only kicking 12 goals in his last 7 games against the club, he will be out to change the trend and looking at recent form, might have a good night out.

Collingwood V Richmond Saturday at the MCG

Tip: Collingwood

Odds: Collingwood 1.14 Richmond 7.80

The Tigers look to be in some trouble here coming up against the form side of the competition in the Pies.

Collingwood match up very well on Richmond and should get the better of them for majority of the match.

With star names in Medhurst, Anthony, O’Bree, Fraser and Brown all waiting for a return in the Collingwood side expect all the players on the field to be “playing for their spot”.

They will get the win easily but I’m predicting a gallant effort from the Tigers with a loss of around the 24 point mark.

Geelong V Brisbane Saturday at Skilled Stadium

Tip: Geelong

Odds: Geelong 1.07 Brisbane 13.00

Brisbane are all but out after continued poor performances and now have the hardest task in footy, Geelong at Skilled Stadium.

The Cats will be out for blood after the disappointment of losing top position on the ladder to a club that at one stage this year was tipped to take the wooden spoon.

My prediction is they will play a tough brand of football for the full four quarters and get a reassuring win as they face a tough month ahead.

North Melbourne V Essendon Saturday night at Etihad Stadium

Tip: North Melbourne

Odds: North 1.50 Essendon 2.98

Essendon are in a massive form slump that will continue into this game.

The Roo’s will have a tough time early on in the match with the Bombers likely to come out firing after all the bad press this week, but I predict a solid game from North who will win by over 30 points.

West Coast V Carlton Saturday night at Subiaco Oval

Tip: West Coast

Odds: West Coast 1.98 Carlton 2.00

This could be the knockout punch that could see Carlton’s premiership hopes fall away with a must game at Subiaco.

The bookies have the odds pretty much evens so its set to be a great game. The Eagles have found a touch of form lately and I think playing at home they can get the job done.

Mark LeCras will be a standout once again for the Eagles up forward as he strives for his long awaited All-Australian selection this year.

Western Bulldogs V Fremantle Sunday at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Bulldogs

Odds: Bulldogs 1.36 Fremantle 3.70

After the Freo loss to Richmond its hard to see them beating the class and team performance of the Bulldogs.

I expect the Bulldogs to make a statement in this game showing the football world they are better without the antics of now sacked Jason Akermanis.

I’m tipping the Western Bulldogs to win between 20 and 39 points paying $4.25 at Sportingbet.

Melbourne V Sydney Sunday at the MCG

Tip: Sydney

Odds: Melbourne 2.44 Sydney 1.68

The Swans need to win these game against sides out of the 8 if they are going to have a real chance at the finals this year. Although they will be with out Daniel Bradshaw the Swans will be able to find a away to kick a winning score.

Keep an eye on Adam Goodes, he has been in great form in the 2nd half of the season after starting sluggish. His presence in the midfield is felt all over the ground.

Port Adelaide V Adelaide Sunday at AAMI Stadium

Tip: Adelaide

Odds: Port 4.20 Adelaide 1.30

Adelaide are coming off a high spirited game beating the top of the ladder Cats last week giving them new hope for 2010. They played a near perfect game which made Geelong look very flat footed so expect a similar game against Port who could only manage 2 goals after quarter time last week.

I think there is some value for the Crows at $1.30. Although they seem very short priced favorites I think the odds will be more like $1.10 by half time so it might be worth loading up on them and taking the easy 30% return.

Footy tipping is coming down to the business end making every decision very important. Round 16 is no exception although there are some tricky game to pick. The game of round 16 is the Pies V the Saints, the MCG will be packed for the game and a guaranteed classic match is on the cards.

Another game to watch is Richmond and North on Sunday, can the Tigers make it 5 in a row and continue to shock everyone in their part to can the Kangas bounce back and get their finials hopes back on track.

Best Bet of Round 16

This week I’m taking the Saints between 1-39 points paying 2.40 at Sportsbet. The Saints look the better football side and their shut down style game will ensure the margin will stay short.

Adelaide V Geelong Friday night at AAMI Stadium

Tip: Geelong

Odds Adelaide 4.10 Geelong 1.31

Geelong were very lucky to get the win against the Hawks last week and will be out to regain the dominance that have shown in the last few years. Geelong return Mooney and Corey for the match and should win easily.

My prediction is the Cats by 34 points.

Collingwood V St Kilda Saturday at the MCG

Tip St Kilda

Odds: St Kilda 1.80 Collingwood 2.22

The Saints always lift for the big games and this is one of them. They beat the Cats a few weeks ago without some key players including Riewoldt so I cant see the Pies showing much resilience against the Saints game plan.

Although his wayward kicking may have cost the the Pies the last time these teams met they will miss the attacking pressure of Cloke up forward.

Hawks V Brisbane Saturday at Aurora Stadium

Tips: Hawks

Odds: Hawks 1.30 Brisbane 4.20

They are a happy team at Hawthorn as they look to be one of the form sides of the season. They play very well in Tazzie and will have a comfortable win over the Lions who are in free fall at the moment.

The Lions have recalled Brown for the match but they will struggle to stop the Hawks who are “on a mission”.

Essendon V West Coast Saturday Night at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Essendon

Odds: Essendon 1.43 West Coast 3.25

Luckily for Essendon they have come up against a poor preforming interstate side at home. Essendon desperately need some good press and get their season back on track.

The Eagles will equal their worst ever losing run of eight matches as they continue to dig their way firmly at bottom of the ladder.

Western Bulldogs V Port Adelaide Saturday Night in Darwin

Tip: Western Bulldogs

Odds: Western Bulldogs 1.19 Port 5.90

Although Port have a new coach this week I don’t see them turning a new leaf. The Bulldogs look silky smooth last week in the big win over Carlton and I’m predicting another top class effort.

Keep an eye out for Brian Lake. He is having a massive season and is bound to rack up another huge possession game.

I’m taking the Bulldogs to win by over 40 points paying a short but safe 2.25 at Sportsbet here.

Carlton V Sydney Sunday at Etihad Stadium

Tip: Carlton

Odds: Carlton 1.66 Sydney 2.48

This could be a danger game for the Blues who need to start stringing a few wins together for a realistic chance in the finals.

They have struggled against the Swans in the past but their forward line Eddie Betts, Chris Yarran and Jeff Garlett are expected to bounce back into form after a quiet week.

One matchup to watch out for is Goodes V Judd. Goodes jumped back in form last week and will likely go head to head with Judd which should make for some very interesting footy.

Richmond V North Melbourne Sunday at the MCG

Tip: Richmond

Odds: Richmond 1.86 North 2.12

From recent form I think the Tiger can do it again and make it five wins in a row! They have recalled Cousins for the Match where North Melbourne have last key player Drew Petrie again in a season ending injury.

Expect the same risk taking footy from the Tigers that has continued to pay off for them. And to think the Bookies payed early on them to finish on the bottom, now there’s a few whispers of a finals campaign.

Fremantle V Melbourne Sunday at Subiaco Oval

Tip: Fremantle

Odds Fremantle 1.26 Melbourne 4.80

The Dockers have been a little shaken lately with some tight games and a loss to Richmond but at Subiaco they are to hard to go past.

They need to win their home games to ensure a top 4 finish to the season and a very important home final if they are going to threaten in 2010 so expect them to go all out this weekend.

Freo by 40 points.

 

 

After one of the most widely-anticipated decisions in sports history, online bookmaker Sportsbet has installed the Miami Heat as $4 favourites for the 2010/11 NBA Championship after securing the services of LeBron James.

Their quote was halved from $8 after the James announcement, while the Lakers have eased out from $3.75 to $4.25 on the back of the news.

“The Heat now with James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh look like they’ll beat whoever they please next season,” said Sportsbet’s Haydn Lane.

Market courtesy of Sportsbet

2010/11 NBA CHAMPIONSHIP

$4 Miami Heat (in from $8)

$4.25 Los Angeles Lakers (out from $3.75)

$7.50 Orlando Magic

$8        Chicago Bulls

$11      Boston Celtics

$11      Oklahoma City Thunder

$15      Dallas Mavericks

$21      Denver Nuggets

$21      San Antonio Spurs

$34      Atlanta Hawks

$34      Houston Rockets

$34      New York Knicks

$34      Portland Trail Blazers

Following today’s resignation of Port Adelaide coach Mark Williams, online bookmaker Sportsbet has opened a market on who will lead the Power in 2011.

Former North Melbourne coach and current Port Adelaide assistant coach Dean Laidley is the $3 early favourite, followed closely by former Port Adelaide assistant and current Geelong assistant Brenton Sanderson at $3.50.

“We have Laidley as the early favourite in what will be a hotly-contested battle to be the next leader at Alberton,” said Sportsbet’s Haydn Lane.

“He looked to have been controlling the Power box at times this season and seems the most likely candidate in what is a very impressive field.”

Laidley leads a cavalcade of the games greats with names such as Hird, Ricciuto, Jarman, Hocking, Primus and Silvagni in the market.

Who will be Port Powers next coach? Our prediction at Sportsbet Blog is that Brenton Sanderson will get the nod and coach the Power in 2011. He is a seasoned assistant coach that knows the Port boys and has been given the valuable knowledge of being around the Geelong camp, he would bring the Power into a new era.

Just minutes after today’s announcement, one punter had $20,000 on the Power to defeat Collingwood tonight at the odds of $5.85 for a potential $117,000 collect.

Market courtesy of Sportsbet

2011 PORT ADELAIDE POWER COACH

$3 Dean Laidley

$3.50 Brenton Sanderson

$4 Matthew Primus

$8        Gary Hocking

$10      Alan Richardson

$10      Brendan Lade

$14      Brett Montgomery

$16      Steven Silvagni

$16      Justin Leppitsch

$16      James Hird

$16      Mark Ricciuto

$16      Darren Jarman

$16      David King

$21      Paul Roos

$21      Roy Laird

$26      Scott Burns

$31      Wayne Campbell

$34      Leon Cameron

$34      Peter Sumich

$41      Ken Hinkley

$51      Jade Rawlings

$67      Todd Viney

 

AFL Round 14

$5.25 Port Adelaide (in from $5.85)

$1.17 Collingwood (out from $1.15)

The round 15 game of the week is Carlton v Western Bulldogs. The winner will secure 5th on the ladder and potentially a game clear from the rest of the 8. It’s the first true “must win” game of the year and bound to be one of the best of the year.

Best Bet of Round 15

This week I’m loading up on Essendon to beat the Dees at 1.94. They are likely winners and there plenty of value at $1.94. Click here to see the latest odds for this bet.

Port Adelaide v Collingwood Friday night at AAMI stadium
Tip: Collingwood
Odds: Port Adelaide 6.60 Collingwood 1.17
The Pies have the wood over Port even at AAMI stadium winning their last three encounters.
The bookies have the odds about right for the pies at 1.17. My prediction they will win by 50 plus points so if your betting account is loaded up put a big chunk on them and take home the easy winnings.

Geelong v Hawthorn Saturday at the MCG
Tip: Geelong
Odds: Geelong 1.40 Hawthorn 3.40
The Cats will be out to have a big win to squash any hopes the hawks have of making 2010 theirs.
Geelongs midfield is much to strong to be held by the hawks and will dominate in that area, I expect their big name to lead the way to a comfortable Cats win.
The hand injury to star Sam Mitchell will only make the task harder for the threatening Hawks.

West Coast v Adelaide Saturday at Subiaco Oval
Tip: West Coast
Odds: West Coast 2.84 Adelaide 1.53
Although the Crows are back in town I think the trip to WA will be to much of them. They haven’t had a win away from home this season and have only taken the points over the eagles three times in their history when in the west.West Coast will be desperate for a win after hitting rock bottom of the ladder last week and if they can hold Kurt Tippett to a couple of goals I think they can get the job done.

Brisbane v St Kilda Saturday night at the Gabba
Tip: St Kilda
Odds: Brisbane 4.80 St Kilda 1.26
It is proven that when a certain player is in a team it can lift a team and the expected return of Nick Riewoldt will give that lift.
Kosi and Jason Gram are also expected to come back for the Saints giving them a full strength side.
The Saints will get a big win over the undermanned and out of form Brisbane side.

Richmond v Fremantle Saturday night at the Etihad Stadium
Tip: Fremantle
Odds: Richmond 2.74 Fremantle 1.57
The two surprise clubs of this year will go head to head in what could be one of the games of the year.
I think Jack Riewoldt will have a rare tough day at the office with the Richmond side likely to struggle to get a clean ball to their forward line. This is where I expect Freo to win the game and take the points.

Sydney v North Melbourne Sunday at the SCG
Tip: Sydney
Odds: Sydney 1.51 North Melbourne 2.90
I predict the Swans to bounce back in a big way and start to work their way back up the top 8.
They played a great 3 quarters against Richmond last week and dropped away in the last so expect a full four quarter game from Sydney.
Keep an eye on Mumford in the ruck, he has had a great season for the Swans and should do well this weekend against a weaker ruck combination in McIntosh and Goldstein.

Melbourne v Essendon Sunday at the MCG
Tip: Essendon
Odds Melbourne 2.04 Essendon 1.94
Although the Bombers have lost Fletcher and Pears in Defense for this match I think they will be fired up from the get go and take the win to quell the bad press they have had recently.
Melbourne were very disappointing last week against the Saints, they had the opportunity to take the game on but simple turnovers kept them out of reach. If they play a similar type of game again expect a big win for Essendon.

Carlton v Western Bulldogs Sunday at Etihad Stadium
Tip: Western Bulldogs
Odds Carlton 2.64 Western Bulldogs 1.59
Both these teams desperately need a win to keep any hope of a top 4 end to the season and will be going into the match as they would in a finals match.
I think the game will be won in the Carlton forward line with Bulldog Brian Lake taking ownership of majority of the time in defense.
If he can continue his usual form a think the Bulldogs will get the win in a tight match.