Sportsbet Blog

Cricket season is upon us, and it is time for Australia’s first international test of the summer. The first test of the series against the West Indies, held at the Gabba, has been proclaimed a “walkover.” On paper the Australian team quite easily outranks the West Indian, but you can never judge a match just by statistics. The weather looks excellent in Brisbane, so you can definitely expect a result from the match, and while that is most likely an Australian win, there are plenty of other things to bet on.

Betfair has a huge range of betting options – from top scores to the day when the test match will finish, to the amount of runs scored in the opening partnership. You won’t be bored watching the test, and there are plenty of good value bets.

Australia is $1.27 with Betfair to win the test, while the West Indies are right out at $15.50. The Australian odds are too short for a hobby punter like me, though expect them to be snapped up by many.

There are also odds for the top scorer for each team. For the first innings, Ricky Ponting is favourite in the Australian camp at $4.20, but the two I’m looking at are Shane Watson and Mike Hussey. Both are at $6.00, and both are top-quality batsmen. Watson has been batting well, and Hussey, despite calls for him to resign earlier in the year, has hit some good form in the One Day form of the game. They are both at $3.00 to score a century.

The West Indian team is harder to judge, so I’d stay away from betting on the top scorer unless you are feeling confident. Shivnarine Chanderpaul is at $4.10, while all-rounder Dwayne Bravo provides some value at $7.40.

It’s tough to tell on what day a test match will finish, but there are juicy odds if you can tell. The odds for the test to finish on Day 1, 2, or 3 are $2.50, while the favoured session is the Afternoon of Day 5 at $2.12. I like Day 4’s odds. Each session is at $5.10, and while it is difficult to pick a particular session, I think the Afternoon is looking the most likely.

There are a few things that stick out in my mind as good bets. The first is Shane Watson as top scorer for Australia at $6.00. The second, perhaps a little hopeful, is that the West Indies’ opening partnership will score more than Australia at $2.32. The third is the $2.02 for Watson to score more than Simon Katich.

As the Spring Carnival draws to an end, there is one race day left that should not go unnoticed. There will be several top-class races at Sandown this Saturday, and the Group 2 Sandown Guineas, run over 1600m, is no exception. A handicapped race for 3 year olds, the Guineas has long been known as the race for those too weak to win at Flemington, but you can be sure that only quality horses make it into this race. Some quality horses to have won in the past include King Ivor, Binding, Schilling and Caymans.

This year’s horses include Kidnapped, who has won at Group level before. While he may not be quite to the standard of some other 3 year olds, like those who raced in the Victoria Derby, he is a classy gelding who might progress to Group 1 level next year. His form has been good; he won the Group 3 Inglis Carbine Club Stakes at Flemington on Derby Day. Kidnapped is favourite with Betfair at $2.75

Turf Express ($12.00) has also won at Flemington last start, in the listed Myer Spring Fashion Stakes last week. The Gai Waterhouse-trained colt is used to life in Sydney, but his win at Flemington proves he can race here as well. This will be his first Group race, and he has not won at this distance before, but he is still a chance.

Majestic Music ($5.00) is experienced for a three year old. The filly has won at Group level before, and has to be one of the favoured horses here. She wasn’t good enough in the Thousand Guineas, finishing seventh, but she backed up impressively with a win in the Lexus Hybrid Plate on Melbourne Cup Day. Her experience and form has to put her in the top three here.

I am going for Majestic Music here. Kidnapped has form at Group level, so I’ll put him here as well. Khas Kura ($4.40) has been racing well at a lower level, and for a little value, look at It’llbefantastic at $16.00

MY TIPS:

Majestic Music

Kidnapped

Khas Kura

It’llbefantastic

While the main attraction is over for this spring, Flemington’s Carnival finishes of with a bang with the one and a half million dollar Group 1 Emirates Stakes. It will also be family day, with lots of entertainment for adults and kids alike. The Emirates Stakes is run over 1600m, and it showcases some of the best handicap racing horses. Previous winners of the race include Better Loosen Up, Shaftesbury Avenue, Testa Rossa and Tears I Cry.

Favourite for this year’s race is 3 year old Cox Plate winner So You Think. He is clearly favourite with Betfair at $3.35, and even then they are probably going to be the best odds you’ll find for him. His form has been good – he won a Group 3 and finishing 5^th in the Caulfield Guineas before winning the Cox Plate. He has raced at this distance before; the only query is the track, and even then only if it rains.

Gold Salute is next best at $8.60. He has not raced for nearly a month, but his second in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap was very impressive. His form before that was also very good, although not at a standard similar to this. He has won on this track and over this distance before, though 1600m is at about the edge of his capacities, as he prefers races between 1200 and 1400m.

4 year old Eagle Falls ($15.50) has been impressive this spring. He started off racing in, and winning, some handicap races in August, then moved onto a few Group races, where he didn’t have much luck, but still impressed. He finally managed to win a Group race last weekend in the Group 2 Salinger Stakes on this track. Although his form is good, he has not won a race further than 1200m before.

Vigor ($11.50) was very unlucky to miss out on a spot in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday, but he is here to try and salvage something from his Spring Carnival. He won the Group 2 Makybe Diva Stakes back in September and finished 3^rd in the Caulfield Cup, but his owners and his trainer Danny O’Brien will be hoping he can win a Group 1 race, even if it is a few days later in the carnival than they had hoped.

This is a tough race to pick, and I will go with So You Think, though he is not as safe as his odds sound. Gold Salute and Vigor will be there, and Eagle Falls is some good value considering other competitors have him at as low as $10 – so make sure you get on at Betfair.

MY TIPS:

So You Think

Gold Salute

Vigor

Eagle Falls

The Group 1 Patinack Farm Classic, held annually on Emirates Stakes Day, is worth $500,000. It is run straight down the track at Flemington, with no turns over the 1200m, meaning it is a true test of speed. It is one of the best races in the Carnival for sprinters, and is generally considered the next race for performers in the Group1 Coolmore Stud Stakes of Derby Day. Previous winners of the race include Hareeba, Takeover Target, Dance Hero and Miss Andretti.

All Silent is the favourite for this year’s race with Betfair at $4.30. Interestingly, he won the main race on this day, the Emirates Stakes, last year. He has only raced once this spring, when he won the Group 2 Gilgai Stakes first-up over similar conditions to this. He is a bit short for my liking, considering the horses that he is up against.

Apache Cat is in an unfamiliar position – one where he is not the favourite! He probably should deserve favouritism, considering his effort in the Group 2 Schweppes Stakes on Cox Plate Day when he beat arch-rival Mic Mac. He is at $4.80, which are excellent odds considering the Cat’s form and history.

Mic Mac is right out at $7. He has been racing well this Spring, taking out two wins and two second places out of his 5 starts. He is every bit as good as Apache Cat, but without a little luck he has faded into the background. I’m definitely hoping that he can get one over the Cat, but only time will tell.

Nicconi ($5.10) hasn’t raced since September, but his 3^rd in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes on a slow track was impressive, as was his win in the Group 3 McEwen Stakes before that. Interestingly, he has not won over this distance before, preferring the shorter 1000m. He will race well here, but it will take a lot to win considering he hasn’t raced for over a month.

Picking a winner in this field of stars is going to be difficult. I’m going with Apache Cat, but he’s going to have his work cut out for him. All Silent and Mic Mac are my next to tips. Last year’s winner Turffontein, who finished second in the Group 2 Salinger Stakes last Saturday, provides some value at $17, though you get the feeling the 1200m might be a bit short for him.

MY TIPS:

Apache Cat

All Silent

Mic Mac

Turffontein

It’s Ladies Day at Flemington tomorrow, and the crowds will be out to see the running of the Group 1 Crown Oaks for fillies. The Oaks is an all-female version of the Victorian Derby. It is run over 2500m, which is a big distance for 3 year old fillies, and the prizemoney totals $1,000,000. The Oaks has uncovered some fillies that go on to perform as mares. Famous winners of the Crown Oaks include Special Harmony, Serenade Rose, Miss Finland, Arapaho Miss and 2008 winner Samantha Miss.

Bart Cummings’ Faint Perfume ($1.80 with Betfair) is the clear favourite, and with her win in the Group 2 Wakeful Stakes last Saturday it’s easy to see why. The Wakeful Stakes is considered the best lead up race to the Oaks; 9 of the past 20 winners of the race have raced in the Stakes. Faint Perfume dominated the race, winning by 3 lengths.  The Oaks might turn out to be a consolation for Bart after the dismal effort of his horses in the Melbourne Cup (I hope you followed my advice and backed Shocking).

Faint Perfume’s nearest rival is right out at $10.50 with Betfair. Livia, who did not race in the Wakeful Stakes, is unexperienced compared to her rivals, finishing 4^th in her only attempt at Group level, but the signs have been promising. Again, the Oaks could prove consolation for Livia’s trainer, David Hayes, after his horse Changingoftheguard was scratched from the Melbourne Cup.

This will be Valdemoro’s ($11.50) first race at Group level, and although he is yet to win a race, don’t knock him just yet. He finished second in the Sportingbet Plate for fillies, where he beat Livia, Princess Rage and Zapurb, all racing in the Oaks. She may be inexperienced, but with an excellent pedigree (Her sire was champion Encosta de Lago), and an experienced trainer in Tony Vasil, she might upset the more seasoned runners.

Melito finished second in the Wakeful Stakes, but is right out at $19. The experienced Sydney runner is having a monster Spring Carnival (this will be her 7^th race), and we will soon see if she can end it on a good note.

It is very hard to go against Faint Perfume’s win in the Wakeful, but she provides little value for money. Silent Surround ($11.50 – good value) and Valdemoro are the next best, and Melito provides plenty of value. If you’re looking for value, Betfair is the one place to go.

MY TIPS:

Faint Perfume

Silent Surround

Valdemoro

Melito

It’s finally here. After all our waiting, the “race that stops the nation” has arrived. The Group 1 Melbourne Cup at Flemington is like no other race in the world. Run over 2 miles (3200m), it boasts an astonishing 5.5 million dollars. A huge field of 24 makes tipping a winner as hard as it gets, but that doesn’t stop millions of Australians from taking a punt. Those millions will be stuffed into their local TABs today and tomorrow, so take the smart option and bet online with Betfair – where you’ll also get better odds.

Only champion horses win Melbourne Cups. Past champions include Kingston Rule, Might and Power, Rogan Josh and, of course, Makybe Diva, who won the race three times.

It takes a real champion to win this race twice in a row, and Viewed is looking to achieve that status this year. Winning the Cup last year with odds of $41, he is favourite this time at $5.60. It is hard to find a fault in his preparation this spring. He won the Caulfield Cup by two and a half lengths, and his final few hundred metres in Saturday’s Mackinnon Stakes proved that he was in career best form.

Alcopop had been equal favourite with Viewed until the latter’s great race in the Mackinnon. Alcopop is now at $5.70 with Betfair, but although his form is excellent, I’m not convinced. He has only raced 10 times, and only once at Group level. While winning form is always good form, and he may just be one of those freakish, unbeatable horses, I think $5.70 in a field of 24 is too short.

Another chance is Bart Cummings’ Roman Emperor. He raced beautifully in the Caulfield Cup, finishing second to Viewed. He is at $10 with Betfair, and if you like him, put a bet on now. Every man and his dog will be putting a bet on Cummings’ seemingly invincible horses, which will result in them being massive unders. If you do want to put a bet on Bart, you could look for some value in Allez Wonder, who is at $38 with Betfair (by far the best odds you’ll get for her).

The international horses have not fared well at all this Spring Carnival. Highly fancied Cima de Triomphe failed in both the Caulfield Cup and the Mackinnon Stakes, and did not even manage a place in this field. Irish raider Changingoftheguard is the most favoured of the European horses at $25. His form in Great Britain has been solid, but you can never tell whether a horse will race brilliant or flop when it has never raced in Australia before.

Australian horses take up only 7 of the 24 spots in the race; New Zealand being the dominant nation with 11. Daffodil ($19) and Master O’Reilly ($15.50), along with Roman Emperor, look the best of the Kiwis. This will be Master O’Reilly’s third Melbourne Cup, finishing 8^th and 4^th in the last two. His form this year has been excellent, and his last 200m in the Mackinnon Stakes sets him as a really good chance. The only query is whether or not he can actually win the race – he has not won anything since the 2007 Caulfield Cup.

Shocking has come from nowhere to become one of the favourites after his impressive win in the Lexus Stakes. He is now at $11.50, and his form over Group 2 and 3 races this spring has been fantastic. It’s very hard to knock his performances so far, except he will be up against some quality horses this time. He has also drawn a very wide barrier so things will be tough from there.

So, I need to pick a winner from a field of 24. It’s tough, but I’m going to go for Shocking, on the basis of his last win. Viewed will definitely be there over the last 200m, and don’t Master O’Reilly to be left behind when the sprinting begins. There is plenty of value here, and I can’t believe that Allez Wonder is at $38. Changingoftheguard is also good value.

MY TIPS

Shocking

Viewed

Master O’Reilly

Changingoftheguard

Allez Wonder

See our friends at Racing Bet Of The Day for more tips and info on the Melbourne Cup