Sportsbet Blog

The Group 1 AAMI Victoria Derby is the premier staying event for 3 year olds on the Australian racing calendar. Run over 2500m, each colt and gelding has 55.5kg and each filly carries 53kg to ensure the best horse really does win. There is over 1 and a half million dollars in prizemoney and trophies to be shared between the top eight runners. It takes a champion three year old to win this race. Most winners are male; the last time a filly won this race was in 1923. Previous winners of the Derby have gone onto win Caulfield Cups Cox Plates and Melbourne Cups and generally have outstanding careers. Some champion winners of the race include Phar Lap, Dulcify and, in more recent times, Nothin’ Leica Dane, Helenus and Efficient.

It seems likely that this year’s field will provide more than one champion horse. Shamoline Warrior is the next big thing in the Mark Kavanagh stables, and he is being touted as better than Maldivian and Whobegotyou. He has already won a group race in Melbourne, the Group 3 Norman Robinson Stakes, beating his 3 year old contenders, including Onemorenomore, who is racing in the Derby. Shamoline Warrior is currently the favourite at $3.40 with Betfair.

I like Monaco Consul ($5.50). Racing in Sydney, he won the Group 1 Champion Stakes at Randwick earlier this month. He has not raced over this distance before, but neither have any of his competitors. The major query will be the track – he has not raced in Melbourne before. His previous form shows that he might be better suited to a heavy or slow track, so don’t be afraid to bet on him if we get some rain.

Rockferry is at $5.80; however he has not had the experience of some of his 3 year old rivals. His only win has come from a maiden at Geelong, though he finished 3^rd in a listed race there last start. I think he is too untried to warrant a bet, but he has shown promise and he is still a chance, though there are better horses in this race. The one major advantage he has over his competitors is the fact he has raced over 2200m, which might not be the distance required here, but he has that experience of racing at a distance longer than 2000m, which most of the others have not.

Viking Legend is finished 3^rd in the Group 2 AAMI Vase on Cox Plate Day, and is at $14.50 with Betfair here. He has a lot of experience, but he has looked his best over the 1800-2000m mark, so the journey up to 2500m may prove testing for him.

This will be a fantastic race to watch. I am going to go with Monaco Consul for the win, though it could easily be any one of 5 or 6 horses who could go home victorious. I think Monaco Consul and Onemorenomore ($11.50) will be up there, as will Viking Legend, who is good for some more value.

MY TIPS:

Monaco Consul

Shamoline Warrior

Onemorenomore

Viking Legend

While most important races on Derby Day are ran over longer distances, the length of the $500,000 Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes is perfect for attracting some of the best quality 3 year olds in Australian racing. The 1200 metres are run down the straight track, which showcases some of the best sprinters of the future. This race has a fantastic record for providing fantastic sprinters with one of their first Group 1 victories. Famous winners of this race include champion Encosta de Lago, Alinghi, Gold Edition and Weekend Hussler.

Phelan Ready ($12.50 with Betfair) is racing this year, quite possibly in career-worst form. He is yet to win a race this Spring Carnival, and apart from finishing second in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes, he been very disappointing this spring. He finished 7^th in a Group 2 last start; he was a champion racer as a two year old, but there are serious doubts about him now he is a three year old. However, saying that, he is such a quality horse that it would be very unwise to discount him as a chance.

Shellscrape ($11.00) has had a fantastic Spring Carnival in Sydney so far. He won the Group 2 Roman Consul last start at Randwick, and also won another Group 3 earlier in the Carnival. His one attempt at a Group 1, The Golden Rose, resulted in a 5^th against some very good quality opponents. He should perform better in this race considering it will be at his preferred distance, 1200m. It will be interesting to see how he handles racing in Melbourne, something other Sydney runners have struggled at.

My favourite horse, More Than Great ($11), let me down last start with a 5^th in the Caulfield Sprint, when I backed him to win. I won’t be doing the same thing again this week, but he is still a chance. That 5^th was the only time he had not made the top three in a race, and he has won twice over this distance before. This is a step up in class for him, and will be his first Group 1, but he might just steal a win against his more experienced 3 year old rivals.

Filly Irish Lights is coming off a win in the Thousand Guineas earlier this month. She has not lost a race this carnival and is probably the most in-form horse in the race. However, all her form has come from racing fillies, so this race against colts and geldings will prove a test for her. Irish Lights will head onto the Crown Oaks after this race, probably irrespectively of where she finishes. She is favourite here at $6.80.

I think Shellscrape will win here, his form being very good. Wanted, who finished second in the Schillaci Stakes, has a big chance, as does Irish Lights. For a little value, I’m going with More than Great.

MY TIPS:

Shellscrape

Wanted

Irish Lights

More Than Great

The Group 1 Myer Classic is the most prestigious all female race in the Spring Carnival as well as being the only opportunity for fillies to race against mares. The mile-long event is weight-for-age, so fillies have a better chance racing against the more experienced mares. There is $500,000 in prizemoney on offer as well as the honour of a Group 1 victory. The fillies in the race will be looking towards the Group 1 Crown Oaks on Thursday 5^th November, while the mares may go onto the Emirates Stakes or end their carnival after this race. Past winners of this race include Bonanova, Miss Potential and Divine Madonna.

Typhoon Tracy has been the mare of the Spring Carnival, despite the fact she has only one race. She is easily favourite with Betfair here at $2.25.  Her win last start in the Group 2 Tristarc Stakes was impressive, over some of her rivals here. However, those odds are just a little short for me at the moment.

Hot Danish ($4.40) finished second to Typhoon Tracy in the Tristarc Stakes. She has an excellent record, winning 11 of her 20 starts. It will be interesting to see how she handles the distance. She has won two races over 1600m before, but neither of them were a Group 1 and, importantly, they were both well over 2 years ago.

Lady Lynette is some good value at $14.00. She has won two races so far this spring, albeit at a less classy level than this. She has been racing well against mares and will not need to do much more than that. Her biggest advantage over her competition in this race is that she has won her previous two starts over 1600m, which has to count for something.

Gold Water ($10.00) was disappointing in the Tristarc Stakes, finishing ninth. His effort at Flemington before that was more promising, a second in the Rose of Kingston Stakes. I am not prepared to back him like I did last time, but the Gai Waterhouse factor warrants him a chance.

There are several other horses with a good chance, but unfortunately I can’t fit them all in. I think Typhoon Tracy will win, although it might not be worth the risk at $2.25. Hot Danish and Neroli will be there. Lady Lynette provides some value, but watch out for Gold Water and Zarita.

MY TIPS:

Typhoon Tracy

Hot Danish

Neroli

Lady Lynette

The $750,000 Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes is widely renowned for its status as the lead-up race to the Melbourne Cup. Many horses have raced in the 2000m Stakes before making the tough Melbourne Cup run, after which they most definitely deserve a break.. It is rather ironic to note that the horses who do well in the Melbourne Cup do not always perform here – last year’s Cup winner, Viewed, finished last in this race before going on to win the big one. Previous winners of this race include Empire Rose, Let’s Elope, Rogan Josh and Lonhro.

Like every year, this Mackinnon Stakes is very open, with almost all of the 13 racers considered a chance. The favourite is Rangirangdoo ($3.60 with Betfair), who has had an excellent Spring Carnival, topped off by winning the Group 2 Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley last start. He is not headed for the Melbourne Cup, so this might be his “Grand Final” or perhaps the Sandown Guineas.

Viewed, however, will race in the Melbourne Cup, where he is equal favourite. Here he is at odds of $9. There will be a lot of eyes on him no matter where he finishes, seeing how he handles the track and whether he is up to the form that saw him win the Cup last year.

7 year-old Scenic Shot ($9.20) raced pretty well in the Cox Plate last week, finishing 5^th. The veteran of 53 races had a shaky start to the Spring Carnival, finishing last and 11^th in his first two races. However, after hitting some form in the Turnbull Stakes, he looks like he is almost at his best.

There has been a lot of controversy over Vigor’s Melbourne Cup bid. Despite a top-three finish in the Caulfield Cup, he still remains 28^th in the ballot order, and only 24 horses will make the final cut. The winner of this race automatically qualifies for the Melbourne Cup, but Vigor is not even certain to race here. Vigor is at $7.60, but I’m not getting on until I’m sure he’s racing.

This is a very tough race to call, and I’m to go for Zipping ($8.20) on the basis of his Cox Plate form. Rangirangdoo’s form has been too hard to ignore, and I am going with Viewed for third. For some value look at Racing to Win ($16.50) or, if you’re a real gambler, maybe country racer Mandela at $85.00.

MY TIPS:

Zipping

Rangirangdoo

Viewed

Racing to Win

Formerly known as the Moonee Valley Cup, the Cathay Pacific Airways Cup is the only major long distance event held at Moonee Valley during the Spring Carnival. Because of this it is an important race for stayers, despite its Group 2 status. This race is not considered a great guide to any race in particular. However, it takes a good horse to win the race, and horses who have done well in this race have performed well in other events such as the Melbourne Cup, Sandown Classic and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Previous winners of the race include Kingston Rule, Court of Honour and Zipping.

This is considered an open race, with favourite Hissing Sid at $3.90 with Betfair. He is favourite despite the fact that he has not won a race in his 5 starts since the Warnambool Cup in May, and has only placed in one of them. He finished 3^rd in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes, which has seen him into favouritism here, but there are still many queries hanging above his head.

At $5.40 is Lodge the Deeds, whose form in Sydney has been fantastic. He finished second in the Group 1 Metropolitan behind Cox Plate fancy Speed Gifted, and has not been out of the top three in a race since the start of August. He has not won over 2000m, but his effort in the 2400m Metropolitan showed that he could run the distance. The only other query will be the track, as this will be his first race at the Valley.

Ista Kareem is at $7.40. The 9 year old veteran showed a glimpse of brilliance when he won the Group 1 Sydney Cup this year, but it’s starting to like he is past his use-by date. He did not make the first 11 in either of his Group attempts this spring, and his best effort was a 4^th in a listed race. However, that doesn’t mean Ista Kareem can’t get up here; it is never wise to discard a horse like him without thought.

I think Lodge the Deeds’ form in Sydney is too good to be ignored here. The $5.40 is pretty good value, with punters a little unsure about him, so get those odds while you can. Hissing Sid’s effort in the Herbert Power Stakes also gets him a spot in my top 4. Miss Darcey ($6.80) rounds out the top three, and I’m also going for Sand Hawk ($19.50) because he has won over this distance and track before, and he also has champion jockey Damien Oliver on board.

MY TIPS:

Lodge the Deeds

Hissing Sid

Miss Darcey

Sand Hawk

The Group 2 AAMI Vase is another tough Group 2 race that makes up Cox Plate Day. All 8 horses racing will be guaranteed a share in $200,000 for the 2040m race specifically for 3 year olds. This race is for horses heading for the Victorian Derby next week, and several winners of this race have gone on to win the Derby. Famous winners of the AAMI Vase include Helenus, Efficient and Whobegotyou.

One horse that is favoured for the Victorian Derby is Extra Zero, who is $3.40 for this race with Betfair. He has only won once, in a listed race earlier this year, but he has shown a lot of promise. However his odds seem too short here considering he has not won a race this Spring Carnival.

Carrara was very impressive in the Caulfield Guineas, finishing second to Starspangledbanner. He has an excellent record racing in Queensland and his performance in the Guineas shows that he can race in Victoria as well.  He is at $5.10, and has the best form of any horse in this race.

Viking Legend is at $5.00 with Betfair, and the 3 year old is also in good form this spring. He finished 3^rd in the Group 3 Champion Stakes. He has drawn a good barrier and with up and coming jockey Blake Shinn on board he is an excellent chance.

Danny O’Brien’s colt Spacecraft has won two of his three starts, and this will be his first Group race. It is always hard to tell how inexperienced horses will perform when put to tests like this, but the AAMI Vase is a great race for Spacecraft to start his Group racing career in. Spacecraft is $7.40 with Betfair.

Also at $7.40 is Miss With Attitude (ridden by one “miss with attitude,” Clare Lindop), who will be looking towards the Crown Oaks. She finished 6^th in the Caulfield Guineas but her form before that was good, coming second in the Group 2 Bill Stutt Stakes.

This is a tough race to call, but I’m going for Carrara on the back of his Guineas form. I also thing Extra Zero is a top quality horse and will race well, as will Viking Legend. Some roughies to look at are Miss With Attitude and Spacecraft.

MY TIPS:

Carrara

Extra Zero

Viking Legend

Spacecraft

The Group 2 Schweppes Stakes is one of the premier short to middle distance races in the country. It may not have the prestige of Group 1 races such as the Manikato Stakes, but there is still $200,000 in prizemoney, and the race attracts big name sprinters each year. Famous winners of this race include Our Egyptian Raine, Miss Andretti and Lucky Secret. Several winners of this race have gone on to win the Salinger Stakes on Victoria Derby Day.

It comes as no surprise that Apache Cat is racing here. The 7 year old veteran of 40 starts can always be found at big short distance races throughout Victoria and New South Wales. The Schillaci Stakes is always considered a good guide as to how horses will race in the Schweppes Stakes and, after finishing 2^nd in the Schillaci, Apache Cat is one of the favoured horses here ($3.80) and will challenge Lucky Secret for favouritism.

As mentioned earlier, Lucky Secret won this race last year, and now he’s back for more. Usually when a horse attempts a Group 2 he has won earlier it shows that he has progressed little in the year that has passed. However, this is not the case with Lucky Secret. He has won more races and performed well even in Group 1 races. His effort in the Manikato Stakes was disappointing, but his win in the Schillaci Stakes has seen him jump to favouritism here with Betfair at $3.75

Unlike Apache Cat and Lucky Secret, Danleigh performed in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes, winning the race. The 6 year old gelding is able to go a bit further than some of the other horses in this race, and this might show in the last few hundred metres. Danleigh is currently at $11.00 with Betfair.

Mic Mac is at $7.50, the closest in betting to Apache Cat and Lucky Secret. He has had a long carnival, racing since the start of August, and has already secured two wins, including the Group 2 Memsie Stakes. His performance in the Manikato Stakes was ok, finishing 5^th, but he can, and should, do better here.

This will be a great race, with so many good horses racing. I think Mic Mac might be a surprise winner, having only lost 3 of his 10 races. Lucky Secret and Apache Cat will be up there, and both of them could easily win. For a little value, Danleigh is at $11.00 despite beating many of these horses in the Manikato Stakes.

MY TIPS:

Mic Mac

Lucky Secret

Apache Cat

Danleigh

The Group 1 Tatts Cox Plate is the most prestigious weight-for-age race in Australia. The 2040m race is worth over 3 million dollars in prizemoney and trophies, but it is the honour of winning such an important race that drags the big named horses and trainers to the race. The Cox Plate is characteristically won by a top quality horse – past winners include Kingston Town (3 times), Sunline (2 times), Northerly (2 times) and Makybe Diva. Perhaps the most famous winner of the race is Fields of Omagh, who raced in the Plate 5 times for two wins, including the 2006 Plate when, as a nine year old, he became the oldest winner of the race.

As for this race, quality horses are bountiful.  The favourite is Whobegotyou, currently at $3.25 with Betfair (some pretty juicy odds). I made the mistake of betting against Whobegotyou when he was favourite in the Yalumba Stakes, but I will not make it again. Despite drawing a wide barrier, Whobegotyou is a star and I have every confidence in him to win this race.

I bet against Whobegotyou last time for Heart of Dreams, the 4 year old gelding who, in the end, finished second. He has drawn well and will jump from barrier 3, which is one advantage he has over Whobegotyou. Heart of Dreams is certainly a chance, and is at $6.00 with Betfair. This race could easily turn into a showdown between him and Whobegotyou.

One horse looking to muscle his way into the winner’s circle is Speed Gifted ($12.00), Lee Freedman’s 5 year old gelding from Great Britain. Unlike many of the other international horses in the carnival, he has had experience in Australian racing, winning at Randwick and Flemington. This will be his first race at Moonee Valley, and despite winning at distances above and below 2000m, he has only raced at the distance once.

Another chance at slightly longer odds is the Gai Waterhouse-trained Rock Kingdom ($20.00), who won the Group 1 Epsom Handicap and finished 3^rd the Toorak Handicap. He is in great form, and I will again profess my admiration for Gai Waterhouse, but he has not won over 1600m. However he is definitely a chance and his odds look juicy for an each-way bet with Betfair.

Manhattan Rain, Gai Waterhouse’s other runner, has drifted majorly with Betfair, thanks to a poor barrier draw. However, an impressive 3^rd in the Caulfield Guineas and some excellent form before that makes $28.00 seem like long odds. Because of the huge amounts of money poured into the betting pools for this race, the odds on horses will change dramatically on race day. So if you like Manhattan Rain, be sure to place a fixed bet with Betfair before his odds shorten.

I will not bet against Whobegotyou again, so he is my tip to win this year’s Cox Plate. Heart of Dreams is possibly the only other horse that can stick with “Whobe,” while Speed Gifted will also battle hard. For a little value, take your pick between Rock Kingdom and Manhattan Rain. Scenic Shot and So You Think are also good value.

MY TIPS:

Whobegotyou

Heart of Dreams

Speed Gifted

Rock Kingdom

Group racing really heats up this week with the Group 1 BMW Caulfield Cup at Caulfield Racecourse. With two and a half million dollars at stake, Australian racing has provided some of its best horses to run out this 2400m race. The Caulfield Cup – Melbourne Cup double is acknowledged as probably the greatest feat a horse can achieve over one Spring Carnival. Horses to have done this in the past include Let’s Elope, Doriemus and Might and Power. The most recent horse to have achieved the double was Ethereal in 2001.

While the big news about this year’s Caulfield Cup has been more about who’s not racing than who is, the race is still sure to be a cracker. There are several horses vying for favouritism, and at the time of writing, it’s a three way tie.

Vigor is at $10, and was nothing but disappointing in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes, finishing 13^th. It will be interesting to see how he fares in this race considering he is favourite over horses that beat him in both the Turnbull Stakes and the Underwood Stakes earlier in the Carnival. He is at $13 with Betfair for the Melbourne Cup, but those odds will change dramatically depending on his result here.

Predatory Pricer has been in excellent form, beating Vigor in both of the Turnbull and Underwood Stakes, finishing in the top three on both occasions. His form has been equal to that of any other horse in this race and is at equal favourite at $8.50 is a good piece of value, even with the open field.

Luca Cumani is back to his old tricks again, this time with Irish horse Cima de Triomphe. Last year his horse Bauer fell agonisingly short of Melbourne Cup victory, but Cumani’s confident he’s on the money this year with this 4 year old colt. Cima de Triomphe is currently at $8.50 with Betfair.

Kirklees is also equal favourite at $8.50. The Saeed Bin Suroor-trained 5 year old has been in top form racing in the UK, and has now come to Melbourne to claim the spoils of its Spring Carnival. He has won his past 3 in the UK, over similar distances and, track queries aside, looks one of the horses to beat.

Allez Wonder jumped onto the racing scene last week with a surprise win in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap, giving Michelle Payne the biggest win of her career. She will be aboard again, looking to become the first female jockey to win a Caulfield Cup. Allez Wonder is at $13.00 with Betfair.

This is a race jam-packed with talent and class, so any Trifecta, First 4 or Quaddie bets should include several horses. The three favourites must be there, and because of that I’ve put in 5 tips instead of the usual 4. Other horses I have not mentioned to consider include Daffodil, Master O’Reilly and Red Ruler.

My Tips:

Predatory Pricer

Cima de Triomphe

Allez Wonder

Kirklees

Light Vision

While the main event this weekend is undisputedly the Caulfield Cup, the race following it is also very prestigious. The Group 2 Caulfield Sprint, as the name suggests, is a short-distance race, and is dominated by sprinters.

Favouritism lies with First Command, who is $3.80 with Betfair. He is in good form, finishing second in his last race, the Group 2 Gilgai Stakes, and winning before that. He is up against some tough competition this time, but he is definitely capable of winning this race.

A horse that I mention a lot in this column, (Indeed, it could be said I have a “horse-crush” on him) is More Than Great. This 3 year is an exciting young horse who has shown plenty of promise this spring. He has won two of his past four, and placed in the other two, so there has never been a better time for him to contest this race against some strong horses. More Than Great is $9.00 with Betfair.

Phelan Ready is a position that he is not used to, the one where he is not the one to beat. At $8.00, there are a few horses more favoured than him. He finished second in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes, but his effort in the Golden Rose was dismal. He’s got a bit of work to do to get himself into the same form he was in this April when he won the Golden Slipper.

At $6.50 is Secret Flyer, the 6 year old gelding. Despite finishing a below par 7^th in the Manikato Stakes, he has been in good form, and he is a good chance to take out this race. Trained by Mark Young, he has an excellent overall record, and has won one race and placed in another this spring.

Also at $6.50 is Eagle Falls, trained by David Hayes. Before an uncharacteristic 5^th in the Gilgai Stakes, Eagle Falls had won four in a row. While these races may not have been of the highest calibre, they are still wins, and an in-form horse is always better than an out of form horse.

I have seen so much promise from More Than Great, and I am hoping he can bring about a win for me today. First Command is also a good chance, as is Eagle Falls. For some value, I am going with Royal Ida at $26.00, but don’t forget to include Phelan Ready in your considerations.

MY TIPS:

More Than Great

First Command

Eagle Falls

Royal Ida