Australia ($4.75 @ SportsBet) will be looking to get themselves back into the running for the Ashes by posting a win in the third test match at Edgbaston in Birmingham. After winning at Lord’s to take a 1-0 lead in the series, England ($7 @ SportsBet) will be looking to enhance their advantage and they have an excellent chance of doing so given the inclement weather throughout the preceding week.
With the bowling squad that Australia has at its disposal, it is difficult to envision a tie of 1-1 in the series at the end of the game. The Aussies may very well want to rethink their attack and probably get in an extra bowler in place of a frontline batsman for such a conclusion to happen. When looking at things from the other side if conditions play out as expected, there will be a lot of swing and seam, both through the air and off the pitch. These conditions will favour England. What may not favour England is the weather which may end the game early.
In my opinion, the inclusion of Steve Harmison is a must, especially with the lack of fitness that Andrew Flintoff has shown. The pair both bowl at a similar length, and they both have a tendency to extract bounce where few others have been able to in the series so far. If Phil Hughes is once again going to be batting at the top for the visitors, then the selection of Harmison becomes even more valuable, especially when you consider the hold that he had over Phil Hughes in the tour game.
If the Aussies are to hold any chance of out-batting the hosts it will have to be a combination of Ricky Ponting, Michael Clarke and Simon Katich who do the damage. So far in the series, Katich has done well without lighting the stands on fire, as where both Ponting and Clarke have a century to their names. Michael Hussey scoring the runs he has been used to and shrugging his poor form will be just what the Aussies desire.
England will once again bank upon their top order, especially given their fragile middle order, with an intensely nervous Ian Bell, a replacement for Kevin Pietersen and an out of form Ravi Bopara. Instead it will be up to Andrew Strauss to get England off to a start like he did in the second test at Lord’s where he played some great cricket. Alistar Cook will need to support him as much as possible. Matt Prior’s aggression has stolen games from the opposition on more than one occasion in the past and Paul Collingwood is often overlooked, but is an effective middle order test match player. In the lower order, Flintoff will be a vital batsman for England.
Having been declared unfit, Brett Lee probably will not play in the test match. This leaves the other four pace bowlers and Nathan Hauritz to fight for the four bowling spots in the first eleven. In my opinion, Hauritz should unquestionably be in the eleven. If Mitchell Johnson is rested for the game due to his sporadic form, then it will be Stuart Clark who should walk into the Aussie first eleven. To me, it looks almost certain and he should even open the bowling for the Australians.
My bet is on the draw ($1.40 @ SportsBet), but if the weather holds off England should take the win.
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